The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[vafrow]

20 minutes ago, Jsmitty said:

`No additional showtimes added for TSTET post update. seat count for the area stands at 1692. Still no sign of a FNAF presale. Beyoncé has only listed 1 Thursday presale showtime (7PM) among the 3 theatres in my area so far. It is currently approximately 45% sold.

 

 

There was no showtimes added for TSTET? That's pretty crazy over a fairly large radius.

 

I recognize that you may be omitting your specific location for anonymity, but what type of market are you tracking? Big city urban? Suburban? It helps sometimes to have that context.

 

 

[Shawn Robbins]

Before everyone panics too much, we have to bear in mind that Marvels is probably going to be a female-skewing MCU film and its early pre-sale trends are likely depressed by the oncoming slaughterfest that is Taylor Swift -- who obviously dominates that core audience.

 

It's safe to expect some backloading in Marvels' presales for that reason alone, compounded by general hesitation among fans which will limit the kind of rush-out sales we used to see with the franchise.

 

That said... I've been very cautious on The Marvels in general and remain so. I wouldn't expect a major turnaround, but something of one (especially if reviews end up positive). These early sales are pretty much par for the course right now without the major hook the first CM had. The team and I will have the official/preliminary long range out later on Thursday or early Friday.

[Nomoras]

Taylor Swift Eras

Cineplex pulled from this morning.

1. Dropped theatres are theatres where I have no data.

2. Dropped showtimes are showtimes where I have the theatre, but no showtime(s).

4. I just guessed the breakpoint, pardon the inaccuracies. 

T-2 Days	Total Occupied	Total Available	Total Seats	Percentage Filled	Theatre Count	Theatres Dropped	Showtime Count	Showtimes Dropped
Friday October 13, 2023	55320	31545	86865	63.69	153	2	400	0
Prior Tuesday Additions	55038	13520	68558	80.28%	153	2	310	0
Post Tuesday Additions	282	18025	18307	1.54%	153	2	90	0

 

T-3 Days	Total Occupied	Total Available	Total Seats	Percentage Filled	Theatre Count	Theatres Dropped	Showtime Count	Showtimes Dropped
Saturday October 14, 2023	77195	152558	229753	33.6	154	1	1029	1
Prior Tuesday Additions	77146	113484	190630	40.47%	154	1	838	1
Post Tuesday Additions	49	39074	39123	0.13%	154	1	191	1

T-4 Days	Total Occupied	Total Available	Total Seats	Percentage Filled	Theatre Count	Theatres Dropped	Showtime Count	Showtimes Dropped
Sunday October 15, 2023	39617	184179	223796	17.7	153	2	987	0
Prior Tuesday Additions	38752	114214	152966	25.33%	153	2	670	0
Post Tuesday Additions	865	69965	70830	1.22%	153	2	317	0

Edited October 13, 2023 by Nomoras

[SpiderByte]

May want to uh double check those brackets 

[keysersoze123]

16 minutes ago, Shawn said:

Before everyone panics too much, we have to bear in mind that Marvels is probably going to be a female-skewing MCU film and its early pre-sale trends are likely depressed by the oncoming slaughterfest that is Taylor Swift -- who obviously dominates that core audience.

 

It's safe to expect some backloading in Marvels' presales for that reason alone, compounded by general hesitation among fans which will limit the kind of rush-out sales we used to see with the franchise.

 

That said... I've been very cautious on The Marvels in general and remain so. I wouldn't expect a major turnaround, but something of one (especially if reviews end up positive). These early sales are pretty much par for the course right now without the major hook the first CM had. The team and I will have the official/preliminary long range out later on Thursday or early Friday.

It is weird they choose to release it this week instead of waiting for Eras to release. That said its not as if buzz for Eras is deafening at this point. Hardcore fans bought tickets on opening day or 2 of presales start and since then its just crawling along. So far we have not even seen final week sales bump up. If you ignore 1st week of presales, its behaving like a small movie !!!

 

On Marvels Disney will have to up the ante. With SAG strike on, only fan shows are the way to go. Its happening for sure. 

[Giorno]

21 minutes ago, Shawn said:

Before everyone panics too much, we have to bear in mind that Marvels is probably going to be a female-skewing MCU film and its early pre-sale trends are likely depressed by the oncoming slaughterfest that is Taylor Swift -- who obviously dominates that core audience.

 

It's safe to expect some backloading in Marvels' presales for that reason alone, compounded by general hesitation among fans which will limit the kind of rush-out sales we used to see with the franchise.

 

That said... I've been very cautious on The Marvels in general and remain so. I wouldn't expect a major turnaround, but something of one (especially if reviews end up positive). These early sales are pretty much par for the course right now without the major hook the first CM had. The team and I will have the official/preliminary long range out later on Thursday or early Friday.

thing is where does a recovery even take it? like gotg3 was looking in the ~100m range before its last week and ended up at 118, if CM is tracking at 50-60, does recovery maybe get it to 70? 

[Bobzaruni]

I don't know how to even interpret the FNAF numbers, i can't see it touching Spiderverse's OW but then again this has been an insane year so who knows

[Giorno]

any chance universal takes FNAF from day and date seeing these presales?

[Porthos]

22 minutes ago, Shawn said:

Before everyone panics too much, we have to bear in mind that Marvels is probably going to be a female-skewing MCU film and its early pre-sale trends are likely depressed by the oncoming slaughterfest that is Taylor Swift -- who obviously dominates that core audience.

 

It's safe to expect some backloading in Marvels' presales for that reason alone, compounded by general hesitation among fans which will limit the kind of rush-out sales we used to see with the franchise.

 

That said... I've been very cautious on The Marvels in general and remain so. I wouldn't expect a major turnaround, but something of one (especially if reviews end up positive). These early sales are pretty much par for the course right now without the major hook the first CM had. The team and I will have the official/preliminary long range out later on Thursday or early Friday.

 

On the other hand I've been worried for a very long time (pretty much ever since TET first exploded) that enough money (or attention if you prefer) would get sucked out of the market of the key demo to potentially hurt The Marvels.

 

That got lessened to a great degree when TET turned out to be the most frontloaded pre-sale movie I've ever seen (so far)...

 

... only to get resurrected when FNAF busted out.

 

Sure, demos probably aren't crossing over much between the two on the later.  On the other hand, two HUGE attention grabbing/buzzy releases right now ain't helping matters much.

 

Now this isn't the case of a $250m OW behemoth depressing the market for releases for the next few weeks.  But I do think there is something to the TET argument that you make, but which might have longer term consequences.

 

Mind, this is somewhat at the edges as most of the circumstances surrounding The Marvels would happen with TET or without TET.  And those circumstances are faaaaaaaaar beyond the scope of this thread (SEE!!! KEEPING IT ***ON TOPIC*** MODS and AWAY from specific The Marvels discussion!!!! 👍 ).  But I 100% agree that the timing of TET and to a degree FNAF is exasperating the situation.

[Shawn Robbins]

11 minutes ago, Giorno said:

thing is where does a recovery even take it? like gotg3 was looking in the ~100m range before its last week and ended up at 118, if CM is tracking at 50-60, does recovery maybe get it to 70? 

Tough to say, and anyone's guess. Under Quantumania feels like a given right now, but could 80-90 be within reach? That's tough at the moment. Everything would have to go right over the next four weeks for that to happen, including strong reviews and the end of the strike so that Brie and company can promote it heavily and push the "woman power" aspect with the entire cast.

[JustLurking]

40 minutes ago, Shawn said:

Before everyone panics too much, we have to bear in mind that Marvels is probably going to be a female-skewing MCU film and its early pre-sale trends are likely depressed by the oncoming slaughterfest that is Taylor Swift -- who obviously dominates that core audience.

 

It's safe to expect some backloading in Marvels' presales for that reason alone, compounded by general hesitation among fans which will limit the kind of rush-out sales we used to see with the franchise.

 

That said... I've been very cautious on The Marvels in general and remain so. I wouldn't expect a major turnaround, but something of one (especially if reviews end up positive). These early sales are pretty much par for the course right now without the major hook the first CM had. The team and I will have the official/preliminary long range out later on Thursday or early Friday.

Is this even true though? MCU skews male, Captain Marvel skewed male, and at this point I am not even sure I would consider TET a slaughterfest with an opening that seems to be going for under 100 even with the huge ATP, with most of these tickets having been sold a month ago and I wonder how many of those even to regular moviegoers.

Edited October 11, 2023 by JustLurking

[Porthos]

4 minutes ago, Giorno said:

any chance universal takes FNAF from day and date seeing these presales?

 

Zero.  Well, near zero. Probably (corps gonna corp after all).

 

In fact many of the... curious (ie insane) decisions surrounding this release can be laid at the feet of this being D+D. Take the review/social media embargo lift being done after previews have been going for all day Thursday.  I saw some commentary suggesting that this was due to it being D+D and that it isn't that uncommon for reviews to be embargoed for D+D releases until it appears on the platform of choice.  

 

I didn't investigate that claim that much as it appeared to be for much lower grossing movies/smaller releases. But it might  be an explanation.

 

The other one is just that NBCUniversal got caught utterly flatfooted by the overwhelming demand for FNAF and is trapped in its rollout strategy.  Maybe they have escape clauses/contingency plans to shake things up.  But I think they would have already rolled those out and with every passing day it just looks like Universal is gonna be content to cash in the lotto ticket they found on the street without trying to juice sales even more.

 

...

 

News of rollout strat being changed coming now that I've posted this in four... three... two...

[vafrow]

14 minutes ago, Nomoras said:

Cineplex pulled from this morning.

1. Dropped theatres are theatres where I have no data.

2. Dropped showtimes are showtimes where I have the theatre, but no showtime(s).

3. Copy of Data

 

T-2 Days	Total Occupied	Total Available	Percentage Filled	Theatre Count	Theatres Dropped	Showtime Count	Showtimes Dropped
Friday October 13, 2023	55320	31545	63.69	153	2	400	0
Prior Tuesday Additions	55038	13520	80.28%	153	2	310	0
Post Tuesday Additions	282	18025	1.54%	153	2	90	0

 

[table][tr][td]T-3 Days[/td][td]Total Occupied[/td][td]Total Available[/td][td]Percentage Filled[/td][td]Theatre Count[/td][td]Theatres Dropped[/td][td]Showtime Count[/td][td]Showtimes Dropped[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Saturday October 14, 2023[/td][td]77195[/td][td]152558[/td][td]33.6[/td][td]154[/td][td]1[/td][td]1029[/td][td]1[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Prior Tuesday Additions[/td][td]77146[/td][td]113484[/td][td]40.47%[/td][td]154[/td][td]1[/td][td]838[/td][td]1[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Post Tuesday Additions[/td][td]49[/td][td]39074[/td][td]0.13%[/td][td]154[/td][td]1[/td][td]191[/td][td]1[/td][/tr][/table]

 

[table][tr][td]T-4 Days[/td][td]Total Occupied[/td][td]Total Available[/td][td]Percentage Filled[/td][td]Theatre Count[/td][td]Theatres Dropped[/td][td]Showtime Count[/td][td]Showtimes Dropped[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Sunday October 15, 2023[/td][td]39617[/td][td]184179[/td][td]17.7[/td][td]153[/td][td]2[/td][td]987[/td][td]0[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Prior Tuesday Additions[/td][td]38752[/td][td]114214[/td][td]25.33%[/td][td]153[/td][td]2[/td][td]670[/td][td]0[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Post Tuesday Additions[/td][td]865[/td][td]69965[/td][td]1.22%[/td][td]153[/td][td]2[/td][td]317[/td][td]0[/td][/tr][/table]

 

E: Okay, why do my tables be like that?

 

Wow. Are pulling data from the entire Cineplex chain? I assume you're using a script to grab data from the website. Great work.

 

It's really good to see more people diving into the Canadian side of the data. 

 

I'm eager to look this over in more detail later this evening.

 

What jumps out to me is that if your sales figures are accurate (and with dropped theatres, it may not be), that sales figure is a lot lower than what I would have assumed the national level was at for Canada. My numbers for southern Ontario region would be about 33% of that total. I assumed my area represented about 25%.

[Shawn Robbins]

12 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

Is this even true though? MCU skews male, Captain Marvel skewed male, and at this point I am not even sure I would consider TET a slaughterfest with an opening that seems to be going for under 100 even with the huge ATP, with most of these tickets having been sold a month ago and I wonder how many of those even to regular moviegoers.

Captain Marvel skewed male largely because it acted as a bridge between the Avengers finale films and had massive casual audience interest because of that element, outweighing the fact it was MCU's first female-led movie which became a secondary factor in the shadow of much bigger hype between 2018 and 2019. This is also a movie starring three main female protagonists and a female antagonist.

 

I wouldn't look to that film as a strong barometer for The Marvels *at the moment*, which is landing at a very different point in the franchise's overall life cycle. Wonder Woman might be the next best point of comparison, which did skew slightly female (52% versus CM's 45%).

 

As for the Taylor Swift under $100m fears... I'm not convinced yet.

[Grand Cine]

32 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

It is weird they choose to release it this week instead of waiting for Eras to release. That said its not as if buzz for Eras is deafening at this point. Hardcore fans bought tickets on opening day or 2 of presales start and since then its just crawling along. So far we have not even seen final week sales bump up. If you ignore 1st week of presales, its behaving like a small movie !!!

 

On Marvels Disney will have to up the ante. With SAG strike on, only fan shows are the way to go. Its happening for sure. 

And they could made the same mistake twice in a row the same week with Wish

[vafrow]

36 minutes ago, Nomoras said:

Cineplex pulled from this morning.

1. Dropped theatres are theatres where I have no data.

2. Dropped showtimes are showtimes where I have the theatre, but no showtime(s).

3. Copy of Data

 

T-2 Days	Total Occupied	Total Available	Percentage Filled	Theatre Count	Theatres Dropped	Showtime Count	Showtimes Dropped
Friday October 13, 2023	55320	31545	63.69	153	2	400	0
Prior Tuesday Additions	55038	13520	80.28%	153	2	310	0
Post Tuesday Additions	282	18025	1.54%	153	2	90	0

 

[table][tr][td]T-3 Days[/td][td]Total Occupied[/td][td]Total Available[/td][td]Percentage Filled[/td][td]Theatre Count[/td][td]Theatres Dropped[/td][td]Showtime Count[/td][td]Showtimes Dropped[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Saturday October 14, 2023[/td][td]77195[/td][td]152558[/td][td]33.6[/td][td]154[/td][td]1[/td][td]1029[/td][td]1[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Prior Tuesday Additions[/td][td]77146[/td][td]113484[/td][td]40.47%[/td][td]154[/td][td]1[/td][td]838[/td][td]1[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Post Tuesday Additions[/td][td]49[/td][td]39074[/td][td]0.13%[/td][td]154[/td][td]1[/td][td]191[/td][td]1[/td][/tr][/table]

 

[table][tr][td]T-4 Days[/td][td]Total Occupied[/td][td]Total Available[/td][td]Percentage Filled[/td][td]Theatre Count[/td][td]Theatres Dropped[/td][td]Showtime Count[/td][td]Showtimes Dropped[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Sunday October 15, 2023[/td][td]39617[/td][td]184179[/td][td]17.7[/td][td]153[/td][td]2[/td][td]987[/td][td]0[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Prior Tuesday Additions[/td][td]38752[/td][td]114214[/td][td]25.33%[/td][td]153[/td][td]2[/td][td]670[/td][td]0[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Post Tuesday Additions[/td][td]865[/td][td]69965[/td][td]1.22%[/td][td]153[/td][td]2[/td][td]317[/td][td]0[/td][/tr][/table]

 

E: Okay, why do my tables be like that?

 

Wow. Are pulling data from the entire Cineplex chain? I assume you're using a script to grab data from the website. Great work.

 

It's really good to see more people diving into the Canadian side of the data. 

 

I'm eager to look this over in more detail later this evening.

 

What jumps out to me is that if your sales figures are accurate (and with dropped theatres, it may not be), that sales figure is a lot lower than what I would have assumed the national level was at for Canada. My numbers for southern Ontario region would be about 33% of that total. I assumed my area represented about 25%.

[Jsmitty]

1 hour ago, vafrow said:

 

There was no showtimes added for TSTET? That's pretty crazy over a fairly large radius.

 

I recognize that you may be omitting your specific location for anonymity, but what type of market are you tracking? Big city urban? Suburban? It helps sometimes to have that context.

 

 

 

14 showtimes planned in total for Friday. around roughly 500 tickets remain. oddly Cineplex did not update any showtimes for the theatres I looked at until noon today as opposed to the usual Tuesday evening. I'm in Southwestern Ontario Canada.

 

This is a new UPDATE as I was typing this:
6 showtimes at a Landmark chain
and 4 at each Cineplex in my area on Friday.

Cineplex 1: 

1 ATMOS 3 VIP

281 Sold/368 total Seats = 76.4%

Cineplex 2:

2 Standard 1 IMAX 1 Ultra AVX

516 Sold/694 total seats =74.4%

 

Landmark:

6 standard

367 sold/716 Total seats = 51.3%

 

UPDATED total seat count for TSTET Friday: 1778 Total Seats

1164 sold/1778 Total = 64.5%

For reference for the rest of the weekend 

 

Cineplex 1 Saturday and Sunday Showtimes

 Showtimes: 3 Atmos 6 VIP 1 Standard Each day

 

Cineplex 2
3 UltraAVX 2 IMAX 5 standard each

Landmark:
10 standard shows per day

 

so 30 showtimes each weekend day over the same area. Manual Counts are tricky lol
 

Edited October 11, 2023 by Jsmitty

[ThomasNicole]

27 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Take the review/social media embargo lift being done after previews have been going for all day Thursday. 

They changed it, reviews will be out very early on October 26 now so a few hours before previews and the Peacock premiere

[VanillaSkies]

6 minutes ago, Jsmitty said:

 

14 showtimes planned in total for Friday. around roughly 500 tickets remain. oddly Cineplex did not update any showtimes for the theatres I looked at until noon today as opposed to the usual Tuesday evening. I'm in Southwestern Ontario Canada.

 

This is a new UPDATE as I was typing this:
6 showtimes at a Landmark chain
and 4 at each Cineplex in my area on Friday.

Cineplex 1: 

1 ATMOS 3 VIP

281 Sold/368 total Seats = 76.4%

Cineplex 2:

2 Standard 1 IMAX 1 Ultra AVX

516 Sold/694 total seats =74.4%

 

Landmark:

6 standard

367 sold/716 Total seats = 51.3%

 

UPDATED total seat count for TSTET Friday: 1778 Total Seats

1164 sold/1778 Total = 64.5%

For reference for the rest of the weekend 

 

Cineplex 1 Saturday and Sunday Showtimes

 Showtimes: 3 Atmos 6 VIP 1 Standard Each day

 

Cineplex 2
3 UltraAVX 2 IMAX 5 standard each

Landmark:
10 standard shows per day

 

so 28 showtimes each weekend day over the same area. Manual Counts are tricky lol
 

I’m in Ottawa and can confirm that Cineplex added very few showtimes for TET around here. Landmark however added quite a few, so hopefully that helps it out. Head scratching about Cineplex as most of their Friday showings are near sell out and have been for weeks. Maybe they are bitter about having to pull the pre-7pm shows they originally had? Jokes on them, they are the ones losing out revenue.

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

They changed it, reviews will be out very early on October 26 now so a few hours before previews and the Peacock premiere

 

Well, that's something.  Should still be a couple of days before at the minimum no matter the quality, but at least they got a little self-awareness about how well FNAF is doing.