The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[jeffthehat]

On 10/12/2023 at 10:05 AM, jeffthehat said:

 

Eras Malco Theaters FRI EVENING T-1

 

Theater count - 24 

Show count - 149

Seats sold - 8367

Total seats - 23472

% sold - 35.6%

New sales - 363 (+4.5%)

 

Doesn't matter much now but was curious about the kind of bump it would get after the premiere. This is only the Fri evening shows I've been tracking. At my local it sold 16 tickets for Thursday and 20 for Friday since my last update. 

 

How it feels knowing my first track was worthless

 

 

 

 

Eras Malco Theaters Friday T-0

 

Theater count - 24 

Show count - 177 (+28)

Seats sold - 9312

Total seats - 28983

% sold - 32.1%

New sales - 945 (+11.3%)

 

Comp

 

14.3x Eras Thursday = $40.1m

 

---

 

Includes all Friday shows. Growth is more in line with what I was expecting, but too little too late. 

 

Average of the comps and my Thu/Fri multi are pointing to $40m OD. Uncertainty should run in both directions, but the vibes make me feel like something north of $42m won't happen. So I'll go with $36m +/- $5m for Friday. 

 

 

Edited October 13, 2023 by jeffthehat

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, Giorno said:

Previews came in at 2.8m, what does this mean for ATP?

 

What it means is...

 

16 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area PREMIERE NIGHT

(Thr Prev) Seat Report:  PREMIERE (THR PREV) FINAL REPORT [5:10pm-5:35pm]

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	154	18105	19122	1017	5.32%

 

Total Showings Removed Since Mid-Day	1
Total Seats Removed Since Last Mid-Day	58
Total Seats Sold Since Mid-Day	215

 

TET Thru (Mid-Day) = 0.10932x TET Fri (T-2) [????m] (1017/9303)

---

T-0 FINAL: 

	%		Sold Since Mid-Day	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Unadj  Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
NWH [3:00-4:30]	3.61		1758	28183		4/395	15229/43412	64.92%		28183	3.61%		1.80m	2.62m
MoM [3:30-4:35]	4.82		1656	21117		0/409	25412/46529	45.38%		21117	4.82%		1.73m	2.51m
Thor4 [3:45-4:35]	6.00		2056	16962		0/320	23111/40073	42.33%		16962	6.00%		1.74m	2.52m
BP2 [3:45-4:35]	6.05		2053	16800		2/376	26426/43216	38.87%		16800	6.05%		1.70m	2.46m
AM3 [3:45-4:30]	9.71		1083	10475		0/307	26899/37374	28.03%		10475	9.71%		1.70m	2.46m
GOTG [3:45-4:30]	9.46		1551	10750		0/347	31169/41919	25.64%		10750	9.46%		1.66m	2.40m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Era Tour's current tickets sold versus that final number.

AD-HOC COMP NOTE: "Ad-hoc Comp" is the normal comp multiplied by 1.45x (a 45% increase), which is what I am using for now to account for the difference in ATP between TET and all other films.

 

YET MORE T-0 FINAL Comps:

	%		Sold Since Last Night	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Unadj  Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
Bats [3:00-4:30]	8.65		1279	11757		1/328	27144/38901	30.22%		11757	8.65%		1.87m	2.71m
JWD [3:45-4:35]	9.27		1476	10966		0/290	22873/33839	32.41%		10966	9.27%		1.67m	2.42m
BA [3:50-4:30]	22.63		874	4494		0/250	27184/31678	14.19%		4494	22.63%		1.72m	2.49m
Ava2 [3:50-4:25]	11.32		1079	8986		0/310	26049/35035	25.65%		8986	11.32%		1.92m	2.79m
Shaz2 [3:55-4:15]	61.15		417	1663		0/166	21658/23321	7.13%		1663	61.15%		2.08m	3.01m
TLM [3:50-4:15]	15.50		958	6561		0/235	23202/29763	22.04%		6561	15.50%		1.60m	2.32m
AtSV [3:50-4:20]	10.44		1676	9744		0/266	22261/32005	30.45%		9744	10.44%		1.81m	2.63m
RotB [3:50-4:15]	20.45		1054	4973		0/202	20839/25812	19.27%		4973	20.45%		1.80m	2.61m
Barb [3:50-4:30]	8.42		1494	12077		4/274	17904/29981	40.28%		12077	8.42%		1.88m	2.72m
Oppy[4:30-4:40]	22.01		547	4621		2/80	6238/10859	42.55%		4621	22.01%		2.31m	3.35m
Barbn[3:50-4:40]	6.09		2041	16698		6/354	24142/40840	40.89%		16698	6.09%		2.00m	2.90m

NOTE: Barben is shorthand for the "Barbenheimer" phenomenon and is the combined totals of Barbie and Oppenheimer

 

As an PURE ASS PULL GUESSTIMATE:  3.3m +/- .5m

(more or less centered on Oppenheimer)

 

I mean, really, no idea for the ATP adj to make. None whatsoever. Could be a flat 3m.  Could be 2.5m.  Nothing between 2m and 4m would surprise me.

 

So, no, absolutely no guarantee on Sacto Dark Magic here.

 

(will be curious as to what it turns out to be, mind)

 

 

SACTO'S STILL GOT IT, BABY!!!!

 

(edge of range still counts!!!)

((knew I should have called for a flat 3m ))

(((LOL DEADLINE 'under 5m')))

[Arlborn]

3 hours ago, Eric Feels 22 said:

Quorum Updates

Freelance T-15: 28.97% Awareness

Migration T-71: 22.84%

The Color Purple T-74: 34.08%

Bob Marley: One Love T-125: 26.5%

 

Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour T-1: 47.67% Awareness

Final Awareness: 84% chance of 10M, 53% chance of 20M, 31% chance of 30M, 19% chance of 40M, 9% chance of 70M, 3% chance of 80M

Low Awareness: 83% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M

 

Killers of the Flower Moon T-8: 40.91% Awareness

Final Awareness: 84% chance of 10M, 53% chance of 20M, 31% chance of 30M, 19% chance of 40M, 9% chance of 70M, 3% chance of 80M

Medium Awareness: 75% chance of 10M, 58% chance of 20M, 50% chance of 30M, 17% chance of 40M, 8% chance of 80M

 

Next Goal Wins T-36: 15.88% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 14% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 14% chance of 10M

 

Thanksgiving T-36: 28.13% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 52% chance of 10M, 18% chance of 20M

Horror Awareness: 69% chance of 10M, 31% chance of 20M

 

Anyone But You T-64: 16.28% Awareness

T-60 Awareness: 29% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 25% chance of 10M

 

Wonka T-64: 49.93% Awareness

T-60 Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 87% chance of 40M, 73% chance of 50M, 60% chance of 60M, 40% chance of 70M, 27% chance of 90M, 20% chance of 100M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 40M, 75% chance of 60M, 25% chance of 70M

Woah, I’ve always been optimistic on Wonka, but I didn’t expect their numbers to be quite this high.

 

Not that I trust Quorum much, but since this fits my narrative well (and my 300m domestic club), I will happily believe them this time 

[emoviefan]

6 minutes ago, Arlborn said:

Woah, I’ve always been optimistic on Wonka, but I didn’t expect their numbers to be quite this high.

 

Not that I trust Quorum much, but since this fits my narrative well (and my 300m domestic club), I will happily believe them this time 

It is so well positioned on the schedule. If this movie delivers it will clean up. I know some are complaining that Timothy is stiff and miscast here. I think he seems fine. If the reviews come out that is the case that could hurt it. 

[Porthos]

Alright, memeing over.

 

(though with everything Tay Tay put us through, I think a little strutting from nearly all of us is in fact called for)

 

Time for some analysis

 

9 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area Opening Night (FRI) Seat Report:

T-1 day and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	309	26659	36239	9580	26.44%

 

Total Net Showings Added Today	4
Total Net Seats Added Today	935
Total Seats Sold Today	277

 

9.41986x TET Thur Previews (???m) (9580/1017)

 

This is suggesting that as of last night TET Friday was at approx 26.4m.

 

Problem is, Thur was way more PLF heavy than this count (about a 12% diff).

Problem with that is, More PLFs got added thanks to the 2pm start.

 

Probably will go ahead and use 2.8m as something of an anchor but cut it down a bit, contingent on just how many PLFs get sold between now and end of tracking.

 

It'll be interesting to see if TET has enough juice to reach 30m on True Friday, given the paucity of walkups so far.

Edited October 13, 2023 by Porthos

[TheFlatLannister]

18 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

FRIDAY

 

TAYLOR SWIFT: THE ERA TOUR

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
363	12993	71527	18.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

767

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

137

 

SELLOUTS

21

 

COMPS

T-1

 

(1.386x) of GOTG3~$24.25M FRIDAY for TET

(1.566x) of ATSV~$27.18M FRIDAY for TET

(2.437x) of TLM~$25.09M FRIDAY for TET 

(1.226x) of Barbie~$25.88M FRIDAY for TET 

COMPS AVG: $25.6M

Adjusted 40% up for ATP $35.8M

 

Good late push and a shit-ton of showings added, but the bleeding didn't stop. $4.5M decrease against comps today 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

FRIDAY

 

TAYLOR SWIFT: THE ERA TOUR

 

T-0

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
363	13419	71527	18.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 2:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

426

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

21

 

COMPS

T-0

 

(1.241x) of GOTG3~$21.72M FRIDAY for TET

(1.201x) of ATSV~$20.84M FRIDAY for TET

(2.003x) of TLM~$20.63M FRIDAY for TET 

(0.999x) of Barbie~$21.09M FRIDAY for TET 

COMPS AVG: $21.07M

Adjusted 45% up for ATP $30.55M

 

Raw numbers are pointing to $21M Friday and I'm not sure how much of an ATP boost this is going to get. Overall, a meh finish.  

[Porthos]

*does mid day check*

 

 

(just got to figure out what info I want to put in)

Edited October 13, 2023 by Porthos

[Taylor89]

6 minutes ago, Porthos said:

*does mid day check*

 

 

(just got to figure out what info I want to put in)

 

 

what does this mean?😰

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, Taylor89 said:

 

 

what does this mean?😰

Its Joever for Eras making more than Joker. It has set new benchmarks are how bad final week of sales and walkups can go. 

[Porthos]

11 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area Opening Night (FRI) Seat Report:

T-1 day and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	309	26659	36239	9580	26.44%

 

Total Net Showings Added Today	4
Total Net Seats Added Today	935
Total Seats Sold Today	277

 

9.41986x TET Thur Previews (???m) (9580/1017)

 

T-1 Comps:     

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Unadj  Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
NWH	38.22		1961	25067		0/373	16985/42052	59.61%		28183	33.99%		19.11m	27.71m
MoM	52.44		1695	18267		0/404	28068/46335	39.42%		21117	45.37%		18.88m	27.38m
Thor 4	70.88		2246	13516		0/312	25975/39491	34.23%		16962	56.48%		20.55m	29.80m
BP2	70.33		1695	13622		2/375	29516/43138	31.58%		16800	57.02%		19.69m	28.55m
AM3	110.70		979	8654		0/305	28519/37173	23.28%		10475	91.46%		19.37m	28.09m
GOTG3	114.55		1174	8363		0/343	33312/41675	20.07%		10750	89.12%		20.05m	29.07m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Era Tour's current tickets sold versus that final number.

AD-HOC COMP NOTE: "Ad-hoc Comp" is the normal comp multiplied by 1.45x (a 45% increase), which is what I am using for now to account for the difference in ATP between TET and all other films.

 

T-1 Final Percents:

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final
Bats	100.43		1621	9539		1/327	29315/38854	24.55%		11757	81.48%
JWD	113.79		1560	8419		0/290	25319/33738	24.95%		10966	87.36%
Ava 2	132.30		971	7241		0/309	27735/34976	20.70%		8986	106.61%
AtSV	136.18		1632	7035		0/251	23809/30844	22.81%		9744	98.32%
Barbie	101.34		1837	9453		3/268	20134/29587	31.95%		12077	79.32%
Oppy	258.43		594	3707		1/80	7152/10859	34.14%		4621	207.31%
Barben	72.80		2431	13160		4/348	27286/40446	32.54%		16698	57.37%

NOTE: Barben is shorthand for the "Barbenheimer" phenomenon and is the combined totals of Barbie and Oppenheimer

 

Regal:     2600/11774  [22.08% sold]

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area Opening Night (FRI) Seat Report:

OPENING NIGHT (FRI) MID-DAY REPORT [11:30am - 12:15pm]

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	1	309	26460	36239	9779	26.98%

 

Total Sellouts Added Since Last Night	1
Total Showings Added Since Last Night	0
Total Seats Added Added Since Last Night	0
Total Seats Sold Since Last Night	199

 

9.61554x TET Thur Previews (26.9m) (9779/1017)

*NOT* ADJUSTED FOR SMALLER PLF THR to FRI PERCENTAGES!!!

 

T-0 Mid-Day Comps:

	%		Sold Since Last Night	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final
TET Thr [12-12:20]	1219.33		321	802		0/155	18378/19180	4.18%		1017	961.55%

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Era Tour's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

 

NOT WORTH IT ANY MORE COMPS, BUT KEEPING FOR POSSIBLE FINAL COMP TOTAL USAGE LATER TODAY:

 

T-0 Mid-Day Comp

	%		Sold Since Last Night	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Unadj  Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
NWH [11:30-12:40]	37.01		1358	26425		0/386	16423/42848	61.67%		28183	34.70%		18.50m	26.83m
MoM [11:30-12:40]	50.25		1194	19461		0/409	27068/46529	41.83%		21117	46.31%		18.09m	26.23m
Thor4 [11:30-12:25]	65.60		1390	14906		0/313	24653/39559	37.68%		16962	57.65%		19.03m	27.59m
BP2 [11:30-12:20]	66.31		1125	14747		2/375	28391/43138	34.19%		16800	58.21%		18.57m	26.92m
AM3 [11:35-12:25]	104.12		738	9392		0/308	27981/37373	25.13%		10475	93.36%		18.22m	26.42m
GOTG [11:30-12:20]	106.31		836	9199		0/345	32602/41801	22.01%		10750	90.97%		18.60m	26.97m

 

 

T-0 More Useless Mid-Day Comps:

	%		Sold Since Last Night	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Unadj  Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
Bats [11:30-12:35]	93.33		939	10478		1/327	28376/38854	26.97%		11757	83.18%		20.16m	29.23m
JWD [12:00-12:50]	103.05		1071	9490		0/290	24248/33738	28.13%		10966	89.18%		18.55m	26.89m
Ava 2[11:30-12:15]	123.68		666	7907		0/310	27128/35035	22.57%		8986	108.82%		21.02m	30.49m
AtSV[11:40-12:15]	121.21		1033	8068		0/251	22776/30844	26.16%		9744	100.36%		21.03m	30.49m
Barb [11:30-12:40]	92.40		1130	10583		3/271	19233/29816	35.49%		12077	80.97%		20.61m	29.88m
Oppy[12:15-12:25]	240.03		367	4074		2/80	6785/10859	37.52%		4621	211.62%		25.20m	36.55m
Barbn[11:30-12:10]	66.72		1497	14657		5/351	26018/40675	36.03%		16698	58.56%		21.88m	31.73m

NOTE: Barben is shorthand for the "Barbenheimer" phenomenon and is the combined totals of Barbie and Oppenheimer

 

Regal:     2642/11774  [22.44% sold]

 

===

 

No walkups whatsoever.  And remember that 26.9m earned so far estimate is likely an high over-estimate thanks to PLF difference.

 

I have to audit my sheet to really make sure, but we tentatively might be looking at a 25m to 26m True Friday.  Really haven't had enough time to really dig into ATP PLF differences.

 

Luckily I have a few hours to think it over and run some maths, but practically no GA interest whatsoever.

 

============

 

EDITED IN CORRECTION ALSO POSTED BELOW:

 

 

Okay, I just noticed/remembered that due to it being more PLF heavy on Thur, I bumped up the ATP to 155% for Thursday previews instead of my initial 145%, and that nailed it almost exactly, especially on NWH.

 

But I think 155% is too high for Fri given the difference.

 

Mid-Day Comp Check 155% ATP DIFFERENCE:

	%		Sold Since Last Night	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Unadj  Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
NWH [11:30-12:40]	37.01		1358	26425		0/386	16423/42848	61.67%		28183	34.70%		18.50m	28.68m
MoM [11:30-12:40]	50.25		1194	19461		0/409	27068/46529	41.83%		21117	46.31%		18.09m	28.04m
Thor4 [11:30-12:25]	65.60		1390	14906		0/313	24653/39559	37.68%		16962	57.65%		19.03m	29.49m
BP2 [11:30-12:20]	66.31		1125	14747		2/375	28391/43138	34.19%		16800	58.21%		18.57m	28.78m
AM3 [11:35-12:25]	104.12		738	9392		0/308	27981/37373	25.13%		10475	93.36%		18.22m	28.24m
GOTG [11:30-12:20]	106.31		836	9199		0/345	32602/41801	22.01%		10750	90.97%		18.60m	28.84m

 

Mid-Day Comp Check  150% ATP DIFFERENCE:

	%		Sold Since Last Night	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Unadj  Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
NWH [11:30-12:40]	37.01		1358	26425		0/386	16423/42848	61.67%		28183	34.70%		18.50m	27.75m
MoM [11:30-12:40]	50.25		1194	19461		0/409	27068/46529	41.83%		21117	46.31%		18.09m	27.13m
Thor4 [11:30-12:25]	65.60		1390	14906		0/313	24653/39559	37.68%		16962	57.65%		19.03m	28.54m
BP2 [11:30-12:20]	66.31		1125	14747		2/375	28391/43138	34.19%		16800	58.21%		18.57m	27.85m
AM3 [11:35-12:25]	104.12		738	9392		0/308	27981/37373	25.13%		10475	93.36%		18.22m	27.33m
GOTG [11:30-12:20]	106.31		836	9199		0/345	32602/41801	22.01%		10750	90.97%		18.60m	27.91m

 

Mid-Day Comp Check  145% ATP DIFFERENCE (ORIGINAL):

	%		Sold Since Last Night	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Unadj  Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
NWH [11:30-12:40]	37.01		1358	26425		0/386	16423/42848	61.67%		28183	34.70%		18.50m	26.83m
MoM [11:30-12:40]	50.25		1194	19461		0/409	27068/46529	41.83%		21117	46.31%		18.09m	27.13m
Thor4 [11:30-12:25]	65.60		1390	14906		0/313	24653/39559	37.68%		16962	57.65%		19.03m	28.54m
BP2 [11:30-12:20]	66.31		1125	14747		2/375	28391/43138	34.19%		16800	58.21%		18.57m	27.85m
AM3 [11:35-12:25]	104.12		738	9392		0/308	27981/37373	25.13%		10475	93.36%		18.22m	27.33m
GOTG [11:30-12:20]	106.31		836	9199		0/345	32602/41801	22.01%		10750	90.97%		18.60m	27.91m

 

155% NHW at final call nailed it last night, but I think that percentage has to come down a bit.

 

EVEN a 155% ATP difference isn't suggesting a 30m True Friday though.

 

But I do think I have to bump up the Sacto range to 28m to 30m  as a gut check.  Will almost certainly go with 150% ATP at final in a few hours.

 

Edited October 13, 2023 by Porthos

[misterpepp]

On 10/11/2023 at 2:19 PM, datpepper said:

Hunger Games: Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes on sale Nov 1

 

Getting word this has been moved up a day to Oct 31.

 

Also, tickets for The Shift go on sale Oct 18.

[Giorno]

Has any concert movie ever had GA interest? 

[Relevation]

Baby, Let The Games Begin: ‘Taylor Swift: Eras Tour’ Concert Film Eyes $40M-$50M Friday, Big Swing 3-Day $107M-$130M+ – Box Office Update

 

Deadline calling it north of $40M for FRI

[vafrow]

We have @Porthos with True Friday + previews potentially under $30M, and Deadline going $40-50M.

 

Place your bets people. I know which horse I'm backing.

 

[Relevation]

Just now, vafrow said:

We have @Porthos with True Friday + previews potentially under $30M, and Deadline going $40-50M.

 

Place your bets people. I know which horse I'm backing.

 

Gonna wager a guess of $37-39M true FRI that goes to a weekend just north of $100M 

[Giorno]

Added another source about Eras Tour outlook: “Prepare for us to be wrong.”

[jeffthehat]

7 minutes ago, Relevation said:

Baby, Let The Games Begin: ‘Taylor Swift: Eras Tour’ Concert Film Eyes $40M-$50M Friday, Big Swing 3-Day $107M-$130M+ – Box Office Update

 

Deadline calling it north of $40M for FRI

 

Wild how trackers are showing <$30m or $40m+ with little in between. 

[Giorno]

Yesterday Deadline said <$5m and it came out to $2.8m, using same ratio it will come out to $28m tonight, i will add on $2m cause friday night will be stronger so going with $30m

[Porthos]

45 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area Opening Night (FRI) Seat Report:

OPENING NIGHT (FRI) MID-DAY REPORT [11:30am - 12:15pm]

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	1	309	26460	36239	9779	26.98%

 

Total Sellouts Added Since Last Night	1
Total Showings Added Since Last Night	0
Total Seats Added Added Since Last Night	0
Total Seats Sold Since Last Night	199

 

9.61554x TET Thur Previews (26.9m) (9779/1017)

*NOT* ADJUSTED FOR SMALLER PLF THR to FRI PERCENTAGES!!!

 

T-0 Mid-Day Comps:

	%		Sold Since Last Night	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final
TET Thr [12-12:20]	1219.33		321	802		0/155	18378/19180	4.18%		1017	961.55%

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Era Tour's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

 

NOT WORTH IT ANY MORE COMPS, BUT KEEPING FOR POSSIBLE FINAL COMP TOTAL USAGE LATER TODAY:

 

T-0 Mid-Day Comp

	%		Sold Since Last Night	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Unadj  Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
NWH [11:30-12:40]	37.01		1358	26425		0/386	16423/42848	61.67%		28183	34.70%		18.50m	26.83m
MoM [11:30-12:40]	50.25		1194	19461		0/409	27068/46529	41.83%		21117	46.31%		18.09m	26.23m
Thor4 [11:30-12:25]	65.60		1390	14906		0/313	24653/39559	37.68%		16962	57.65%		19.03m	27.59m
BP2 [11:30-12:20]	66.31		1125	14747		2/375	28391/43138	34.19%		16800	58.21%		18.57m	26.92m
AM3 [11:35-12:25]	104.12		738	9392		0/308	27981/37373	25.13%		10475	93.36%		18.22m	26.42m
GOTG [11:30-12:20]	106.31		836	9199		0/345	32602/41801	22.01%		10750	90.97%		18.60m	26.97m

 

 

T-0 More Useless Mid-Day Comps:

	%		Sold Since Last Night	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Unadj  Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
Bats [11:30-12:35]	93.33		939	10478		1/327	28376/38854	26.97%		11757	83.18%		20.16m	29.23m
JWD [12:00-12:50]	103.05		1071	9490		0/290	24248/33738	28.13%		10966	89.18%		18.55m	26.89m
Ava 2[11:30-12:15]	123.68		666	7907		0/310	27128/35035	22.57%		8986	108.82%		21.02m	30.49m
AtSV[11:40-12:15]	121.21		1033	8068		0/251	22776/30844	26.16%		9744	100.36%		21.03m	30.49m
Barb [11:30-12:40]	92.40		1130	10583		3/271	19233/29816	35.49%		12077	80.97%		20.61m	29.88m
Oppy[12:15-12:25]	240.03		367	4074		2/80	6785/10859	37.52%		4621	211.62%		25.20m	36.55m
Barbn[11:30-12:10]	66.72		1497	14657		5/351	26018/40675	36.03%		16698	58.56%		21.88m	31.73m

NOTE: Barben is shorthand for the "Barbenheimer" phenomenon and is the combined totals of Barbie and Oppenheimer

 

Regal:     2642/11774  [22.44% sold]

 

===

 

No walkups whatsoever.  And remember that 26.9m earned so far estimate is likely an high over-estimate thanks to PLF difference.

 

I have to audit my sheet to really make sure, but we tentatively might be looking at a 25m to 26m True Friday.  Really haven't had enough time to really dig into ATP PLF differences.

 

Luckily I have a few hours to think it over and run some maths, but practically no GA interest whatsoever.

 

 

CORRECTION TO THE ABOVE!!!!

 

Okay, I just noticed/remembered that due to it being more PLF heavy on Thur, I bumped up the ATP to 155% for Thursday previews instead of my initial 145%, and that nailed it almost exactly, especially on NWH.

 

But I think 155% is too high for Fri given the difference in PLF share between Thr and Fri.

 

Mid-Day Comp Check 155% ATP DIFFERENCE:

	%		Sold Since Last Night	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Unadj  Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
NWH [11:30-12:40]	37.01		1358	26425		0/386	16423/42848	61.67%		28183	34.70%		18.50m	28.68m
MoM [11:30-12:40]	50.25		1194	19461		0/409	27068/46529	41.83%		21117	46.31%		18.09m	28.04m
Thor4 [11:30-12:25]	65.60		1390	14906		0/313	24653/39559	37.68%		16962	57.65%		19.03m	29.49m
BP2 [11:30-12:20]	66.31		1125	14747		2/375	28391/43138	34.19%		16800	58.21%		18.57m	28.78m
AM3 [11:35-12:25]	104.12		738	9392		0/308	27981/37373	25.13%		10475	93.36%		18.22m	28.24m
GOTG [11:30-12:20]	106.31		836	9199		0/345	32602/41801	22.01%		10750	90.97%		18.60m	28.84m

 

Mid-Day Comp Check  150% ATP DIFFERENCE:

	%		Sold Since Last Night	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Unadj  Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
NWH [11:30-12:40]	37.01		1358	26425		0/386	16423/42848	61.67%		28183	34.70%		18.50m	27.75m
MoM [11:30-12:40]	50.25		1194	19461		0/409	27068/46529	41.83%		21117	46.31%		18.09m	27.13m
Thor4 [11:30-12:25]	65.60		1390	14906		0/313	24653/39559	37.68%		16962	57.65%		19.03m	28.54m
BP2 [11:30-12:20]	66.31		1125	14747		2/375	28391/43138	34.19%		16800	58.21%		18.57m	27.85m
AM3 [11:35-12:25]	104.12		738	9392		0/308	27981/37373	25.13%		10475	93.36%		18.22m	27.33m
GOTG [11:30-12:20]	106.31		836	9199		0/345	32602/41801	22.01%		10750	90.97%		18.60m	27.91m

 

Mid-Day Comp Check  145% ATP DIFFERENCE (ORIGINAL):

	%		Sold Since Last Night	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Unadj  Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
NWH [11:30-12:40]	37.01		1358	26425		0/386	16423/42848	61.67%		28183	34.70%		18.50m	26.83m
MoM [11:30-12:40]	50.25		1194	19461		0/409	27068/46529	41.83%		21117	46.31%		18.09m	27.13m
Thor4 [11:30-12:25]	65.60		1390	14906		0/313	24653/39559	37.68%		16962	57.65%		19.03m	28.54m
BP2 [11:30-12:20]	66.31		1125	14747		2/375	28391/43138	34.19%		16800	58.21%		18.57m	27.85m
AM3 [11:35-12:25]	104.12		738	9392		0/308	27981/37373	25.13%		10475	93.36%		18.22m	27.33m
GOTG [11:30-12:20]	106.31		836	9199		0/345	32602/41801	22.01%		10750	90.97%		18.60m	27.91m

 

155% NHW at final call nailed it last night, but I think that percentage has to come down a bit.

 

EVEN a 155% ATP difference isn't suggesting a 30m True Friday though.

 

But I do think I have to bump up the Sacto range to 28m to 30m  as a gut check.  Will almost certainly go with 150% ATP at final in a few hours.  But it might be 27m to 29m.

 

Edited October 13, 2023 by Porthos

[Inceptionzq]

22 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Emagine Entertainment

T-1 Friday

220 Showings

11524

+195

30134

1.047

Barbie Thurs T-1

23.34M

 

T-2 Saturday

334 Showings

9495

+731

46050

0.556

Barbie Fri T-2

26.60M

 

T-3 Sunday

291 Showings

6028

+548

41497

0.591

Barbie Sat T-3

25.84M

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Emagine Entertainment

T-0 Friday

218 Showings

12703

+1179

30253

13.53	Taylor Swift Thurs	37.88M
0.885	Barbie Thurs T-0	19.74M
	Adjusted Barbie Thurs T-0	28.62M

 

T-1 Saturday

336 Showings

10440

+945

46262

0.498	Barbie Fri T-1	23.81M
	Adjusted Barbie Fri T-1	35.72M

 

T-2 Sunday

291 Showings

6637

+609

41499

0.510	Barbie Sat T-2	22.28M
	Adjusted Barbie Sat T-2	33.42M

 

Bumped the adjustments for Saturday and Sunday up to 1.5x