The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Hilts]

23 hours ago, Hilts said:

 

Five Nights at Freddy's							OK
Thursday - showings starting 2pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-16	20	86	50	894	13,364	6.69%	5.92%
T-15	20	95	46	940	14,252	6.60%	5.15%
T-14	20	95	39	979	14,252	6.87%	4.15%
T-13	20	95	71	1,050	14,252	7.37%	7.25%
T-12	20	95	54	1,104	14,252	7.75%	5.14%
MTC1	7	21	+27	468	2,213	21.15%	6.12%
MTC2	4	38	+12	231	5,541	4.17%	5.48%
MTC3	3	20	+12	295	4,277	6.90%	4.24%
Other	6	16	+3	110	2,221	4.95%	2.80%
Comps
Asteroid City					13.463x	=	$14.81m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					1.633x	=	$14.37m
Barbie					0.585x	=	$13.00m
Haunted Mansion					7.311x	=	$22.66m
Oppenheimer					1.055x	=	$11.08m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					1.143x	=	$8.23m

 

Very little change in comps in the last 5 days, impressed it's still keeping up.

 

Don't understand who is buying these tickets as surely the fanatics purchased as soon as they were available but demand is clearly still there.

 

MTC2 added even more shows, still waiting on action from MTC1.

 

Five Nights at Freddy's							OK
Thursday - showings starting 2pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-15	20	95	46	940	14,252	6.60%	5.15%
T-14	20	95	39	979	14,252	6.87%	4.15%
T-13	20	95	71	1,050	14,252	7.37%	7.25%
T-12	20	95	54	1,104	14,252	7.75%	5.14%
T-11	20	95	65	1,169	14,252	8.20%	5.89%
MTC1	7	21	+21	489	2,213	22.10%	4.49%
MTC2	4	38	+14	245	5,541	4.42%	6.06%
MTC3	3	20	+18	313	4,277	7.32%	6.10%
Other	6	16	+12	122	2,221	5.49%	10.91%
Comps
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					1.621x	=	$14.27m
Barbie					0.565x	=	$12.54m
Haunted Mansion					7.306x	=	$22.65m
Oppenheimer					1.048x	=	$11.01m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					1.175x	=	$8.46m

 

Haunted Mansion picks up starting tomorrow so should see it fall steadily to more reasonable level.

 

Not much to say, still chugging along at a steady pace.

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

You need to start adjusting for ATP. This has the lowest ATP for any movie I have tracked that is looking big. Its not even close. 

 

I almost never adjust for ATP on the fly.  If needed, I'll start switching to lower ATP films/ones without as much PLFs as comps.

 

But I will note this is getting a lot of non-IMAX PLFs which will help in the MTCs that aren't reliant on IMAX.

 

Will keep it in mind when it's time to make a projection out of Sacramento.  Probably will rope in the Minions 2 and Sonic 2 comps then (which are unsuitable now due to pace consideration) along with other similar films.

[Hilts]

23 hours ago, Hilts said:

The Marvels							OK
Thursday - showings starting 3pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-30	19	167	258	258	31,972	0.81%	-
T-29	21	173	70	328	32,650	1.00%	27.13%
T-28	21	173	45	373	32,650	1.14%	13.72%
T-27	21	173	15	388	32,650	1.19%	4.02%
T-26	21	173	10	398	32,650	1.22%	2.58%
MTC1	8	59	+4	215	10,485	2.05%	1.90%
MTC2	4	48	0	43	8,204	0.52%	0.00%
MTC3	3	39	+6	123	8,077	1.52%	5.13%
Other	6	27	0	17	5,884	0.29%	0.00%
Comps
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					0.748x	=	$5.39m
Barbie					0.525x	=	$11.66m
Oppenheimer					0.667x	=	$7.00m
Haunted Mansion					5.528x	=	$17.14m

 

MCU comp-free-zone. Think I'm in the right ballpark though since this is not really performing like an MCU title.

 

Bonus comps vs their first 5 days of sales (that had shorter windows):

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem					1.452x	=	$8.13m
Blue Beetle					3.134x	=	$10.34m
Five Nights at Freddy's					0.612x

 

The Marvels							OK
Thursday - showings starting 3pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-29	21	173	70	328	32,650	1.00%	27.13%
T-28	21	173	45	373	32,650	1.14%	13.72%
T-27	21	173	15	388	32,650	1.19%	4.02%
T-26	21	173	10	398	32,650	1.22%	2.58%
T-25	21	173	21	419	32,650	1.28%	5.28%
MTC1	8	59	+18	233	10,485	2.22%	8.37%
MTC2	4	48	+3	46	8,204	0.56%	6.98%
MTC3	3	39	0	123	8,077	1.52%	0.00%
Other	6	27	0	17	5,884	0.29%	0.00%
Comps
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					0.748x	=	$5.39m
Barbie					0.493x	=	$10.94m
Oppenheimer					0.694x	=	$7.28m
Five Nights at Freddy's					2.149x

 

FNaF only had 1 day of sales at this point which is why Marvels is ahead. At current rate it will be behind in 2 days time.

 

No proper update for Wish today - only had 1 ticket refunded in the last day (none sold) 😢

[Porthos]

42 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

I almost never adjust for ATP on the fly.  If needed, I'll start switching to lower ATP films/ones without as much PLFs as comps.

 

But I will note this is getting a lot of non-IMAX PLFs which will help in the MTCs that aren't reliant on IMAX.

 

Will keep it in mind when it's time to make a projection out of Sacramento.  Probably will rope in the Minions 2 and Sonic 2 comps then (which are unsuitable now due to pace consideration) along with other similar films.

 

Thinking a bit more about this, I do think it might be past time to remove Wick 4 (R-rating/demo) and Scream VI (Fan Event, R-rating, 3D) as comps.

 

But I'm leery of doing that because they've been valuable for pace considerations.

 

Might compromise and flag up an ATP warning on the top of the comp block.  Something like "USE MOSTLY FOR PACE PURPOSES" or sumthin' like that.

 

FWIW, I do agree with you that as funny as it would be for FNAF to land in the meme zone of 17m-ish, I personally don't see it happening.  More eyeballing around 12-13 right now, as a pure asspull guess.

Edited October 15, 2023 by Porthos

[TwoMisfits]

12 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Thinking a bit more about this, I do think it might be past time to remove Wick 4 (R-rating/demo) and Scream VI (Fan Event, R-rating, 3D) as comps.

 

But I'm leery of doing that because they've been valuable for pace considerations.

 

Might compromise and flag up an ATP warning on the top of the comp block.  Something like "USE MOSTLY FOR PACE PURPOSES" or sumthin' like that.

 

FWIW, I do agree with you that as funny as it would be for FNAF to land in the meme zone of 17m-ish, I personally don't see it happening.  More eyeballing around 12-13 right now, as a pure asspull guess.

 

I'd actually guess $10M...I think this month and last has started showing that Thursday fall walkups are just not showing like we'd expect them to - maybe it's NFL football, maybe it's college football, maybe it's student loan repayment, maybe it's just folks don't wanna be there at full price except on weekends...who knows.  But, seeing how the last few week have gone, there are my thoughts.

 

I know what tracking is saying...I just think it will fall off...

[Porthos]

17 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

I'd actually guess $10M...I think this month and last has started showing that Thursday fall walkups are just not showing like we'd expect them to - maybe it's NFL football, maybe it's college football, maybe it's student loan repayment, maybe it's just folks don't wanna be there at full price except on weekends...who knows.  But, seeing how the last few week have gone, there are my thoughts.

 

I know what tracking is saying...I just think it will fall off...

 

I'm already on record as to why I think tracking will fall (late embargo lifts).  

 

OTOH, the big thing, and it's a big thing in FNAF's corner, is viral marketing.  Barbie got a boost from it.  Last year Minions 2 got a boost.  Before that LTBC (an Oct film no less) got a boost.

 

If you can get self-sustaining hype outside of the studio marketing eco-system, then patterns go out the window. 

 

For me, I'm gonna be looking at pace all this week.  All the way through this coming Friday, really.  If FNAF can trade body blows with other similar GA-driven films, then... Well, ATP will still take a chunk of change but that only goes so far.

Edited October 15, 2023 by Porthos

[Boxofficerules]

2 hours ago, Krissykins said:

I am! 
 

My most anticipated film for the rest of the year. 
 

(All of us Strangers is a 2024 release here unfortunately). 

I get the feeling it will bomb.

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

The Marvels 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-26

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
251	1957	50028	3.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

64

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-26

 

(0.471x) of GOTG3~$8.23M THUR Previews

(1.214x) of Indy 5~$8.74M THUR Previews

Comps AVG: $8.49M

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

The Marvels 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-25

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
251	2005	50028	4.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

48

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-25

 

(0.476x) of GOTG3~$8.33M Previews

(1.234x) of Indy 5~$8.88M Previews

Comps AVG: $8.61M

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

WISH

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-38

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
145	250	26289	0.95%

^{*numbers taken as of 8:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

95

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

nothing lol

 

Much better day 2

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

WISH

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-37

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
145	262	26289	0.99%

^{*numbers taken as of 8:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

12

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

nothing yet

[Krissykins]

28 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

I get the feeling it will bomb.

The most recent full trailer did get 15 million YouTube views on the official account in 11 days, which is quite big. 
 

But yeh I think it’ll be a very quick run. Needs to make all of its money in about 10 days then Thanksgiving is over. 

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

FIVE NIGHTS AT FREDDY'S

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-12

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
174	2616	32508	8.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

89

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-12

 

(1.073x) of Flash $10.40M Previews

(0.759x) of ATSV $13.16M Previews

(1.787x) of Fast X $13.40M Previews

Comps AVG: $12.32M

 

*For fun*

(0.809x) of Barbie $17.06M

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

FIVE NIGHTS AT FREDDY'S

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-11

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
174	2652	32508	8.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

36

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-11

 

(1.053x) of Flash $10.21M Previews

(0.741x) of ATSV $12.85M Previews

(1.779x) of Fast X $13.35M Previews

Comps AVG: $12.14M

 

*For fun*

(0.774x) of Barbie $16.34M

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-6

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
151	633	25536	2.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

23

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-6

 

(0.250x) of Oppenheimer ~$2.63M Previews

(0.395x) of Mi7 ~$2.78M Previews

 

COMPS AVG: $2.71M 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-5

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
151	670	25536	2.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

37

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-5

 

(0.256x) of Oppenheimer ~$2.69M Previews

(1.772x) of Saw X~$3.54M Previews

 

COMPS AVG: $3.12M 

 

Transitioning to smaller scale comps

[emoviefan]

45 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

The Marvels 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-25

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
251	2005	50028	4.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

48

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-25

 

(0.476x) of GOTG3~$8.33M Previews

(1.234x) of Indy 5~$8.88M Previews

Comps AVG: $8.61M

Tells you how bad it's gotten that I'm thinking it could be worse.  

[abracadabra1998]

On 10/12/2023 at 8:32 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

 

Minneapolis- St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Killers of the Flower Moon (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 19 theaters	70	154	537	10660	5.04

 

Comps:

0.25x Oppenheimer: $2.67 Million

0.6x Mission Impossible 7 (Just Tuesday): $4.18 Million

0.56x Indiana Jones 5: $4.03 Million

 

Never mind about Haunting in Venice or Big Fat Greek Wedding lol, this is way exceeding that. Haunting in Venice window was much shorter, so I will probably add that on Sunday, but BFGW3 is not suitable here. Either way, this is a great update; I was pessimistic going into today because of all the noise going into Taylor and the Marvels, but this is keeping pace with Oppy (which was going strong with Barbenheimer at this point), and improving over MI7 and Indy.

 

Five Nights at Freddy's (T-14):

Day: T-14	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 16 theaters	57	194	818	8076	10.13

 

Comps:

5.11x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $15.8 Million

1.4x Mission Impossible 7 (Just Tuesday): $9.77 Million

0.65x Barbie (Just Thursday): $13.8 Million

 

The Marvels (T-28):

Day: T-28	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 15 theaters	103	20	510	17152	2.97

 

Comp:

0.78x Oppenheimer: $8.16 Million

 

Renaissance by Beyonce (T-49):

Day: T-49	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 19 theaters	43	26	858	7584	11.31

 

The next month or so will look pretty boring for this I imagine, but I can't wait for the eventual Taylor appearance at the premiere and see what kind of boost that leads to lol.

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Previews:

 

Killers of the Flower Moon (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 19 theaters	70	135	672	10660	6.3

 

Comps:

0.25x Oppenheimer: $2.63 Million

0.5x Mission Impossible 7 (Just Tuesday): $3.47 Million

0.56x Indiana Jones 5: $4.03 Million

4.7x Haunting in Venice (w/ EA): $5.64 Million

 

Average: $3.94 Million

 

Lost ground to MI7 (T-7 to T-4, however, was during the week, as that was a Tuesday release), kept track with Oppy and Indiana Jones, and added Haunting in Venice (smaller, pre-sales window, that'll be going down). Overall still in the $3.25-3.5 Million boat.

 

Five Nights at Freddy's (T-11):

Day: T-11	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 16 theaters	59	157	975	8274	11.78

 

Comps:

1.44x Mission Impossible 7 (Just Tuesday): $10.05 Million

0.56x Barbie (Just Thursday): $11.98 Million

 

Took away the Haunted Mansion comp, that just doesn't make sense anymore. Probably rolling with these two from now on, flawed as they are.

 

The Marvels (T-25):

Day: T-25	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 16 theaters	113	171	681	20413	3.34

 

Comp:

0.82x Oppenheimer: $8.57 Million

 

Honestly this has been behaving better than I thought, actually growing against the Oppy comp.

 

Renaissance by Beyonce (T-46):

Day: T-46	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 19 theaters	43	24	882	7584	11.63

 

No apparent Taylor Swift premiere bump.

[Relevation]

1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-5

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
151	670	25536	2.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

37

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-5

 

(0.256x) of Oppenheimer ~$2.69M Previews

(1.772x) of Saw X~$3.54M Previews

 

COMPS AVG: $3.12M 

 

Transitioning to smaller scale comps

In terms of recent movies, I think A Haunting in Venice and The Creator could be useful as older-skewing/prestige comps to use 

[Boxofficerules]

1 hour ago, Krissykins said:

The most recent full trailer did get 15 million YouTube views on the official account in 11 days, which is quite big. 
 

But yeh I think it’ll be a very quick run. Needs to make all of its money in about 10 days then Thanksgiving is over. 

If I'm looking forwards to it, it normally doesn't do much.

[charlie Jatinder]

5 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

You need to start adjusting for ATP. This has the lowest ATP for any movie I have tracked that is looking big. Its not even close. 

 

Also charlie/your predictions will get criticized when the previews dont hit the highs predicted here. 

 

Lol. Did I actually say 17-18?

[Jsmitty]

4 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

I'm already on record as to why I think tracking will fall (late embargo lifts).  

 

OTOH, the big thing, and it's a big thing in FNAF's corner, is viral marketing.  Barbie got a boost from it.  Last year Minions 2 got a boost.  Before that LTBC (an Oct film no less) got a boost.

 

If you can get self-sustaining hype outside of the studio marketing eco-system, then patterns go out the window. 

 

For me, I'm gonna be looking at pace all this week.  All the way through this coming Friday, really.  If FNAF can trade body blows with other similar GA-driven films, then... Well, ATP will still take a chunk of change but that only goes so far.

Still entirely unsure if I’m being too optimistic in saying I feel an OW of around 75M and a 70+% weekend 2 drop are both possible.

[TheFlatLannister]

3 hours ago, emoviefan said:

Tells you how bad it's gotten that I'm thinking it could be worse.  

It’s probably over indexing here considering Jat, porthos, inception samples are around $7m  

[TheFlatLannister]

2 hours ago, Relevation said:

In terms of recent movies, I think A Haunting in Venice and The Creator could be useful as older-skewing/prestige comps to use 

I will try those comps tomorrow