The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

motionpic05 · October 22, 2023

Is the Monday Mystery Movie Thanksgiving?

Hilts · October 22, 2023

On 10/14/2023 at 9:33 PM, Hilts said:

After Death OK

Thursday - showings starting 5pm

Day Theatres Showings Daily Sold Total Sold Total Seats % Sold Growth

T-16 9 17 2 45 1,742 2.58% 4.65%

T-15 9 17 2 47 1,742 2.70% 4.44%

T-14 9 17 4 51 1,742 2.93% 8.51%

T-13 9 17 10 61 1,742 3.50% 19.61%

T-12 9 17 2 63 1,742 3.62% 3.28%

MTC1 3 5 0 13 460 2.83% 0.00%

MTC2 2 4 0 11 392 2.81% 0.00%

MTC3 3 6 +2 39 784 4.97% 5.41%

Other 1 2 0 0 106 0.00% 0.00%

Yeah really don't have anything appropriate here to compare with.

But very vaguely this is looking at ~$1m or less based on similar daily sales at this stage of the cycle. I understand they are doing the pay it forward with this also which may skew things somewhat. Direct comp with Sound of Freedom only gives $250k which may be accurate, maybe not.

4 hours ago, Hilts said:

Yep I will try and drop daily updates from today, just tricky to find relevant comps. Dropping random ones alongside it seems to be around $1m or just under at the moment. SoF comp pushes it way down as that over-indexed here so trying to ignore that but I may add it for reference.

After Death							OK

Thursday - showings starting 5pm

Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-8	12	23	11	83	2,116	3.92%	15.28%
T-7	12	23	1	84	2,116	3.97%	1.20%
T-6	12	23	9	93	2,116	4.40%	10.71%
T-5	12	23	8	101	2,020	5.00%	8.60%
T-4	12	23	5	106	2,020	5.25%	4.95%

MTC1	5	9	+1	27	732	3.69%	3.85%
MTC2	2	4	0	24	392	6.12%	0.00%
MTC3	3	6	+4	53	706	7.51%	8.16%
Other	2	4	0	2	190	1.05%	0.00%

Comps
Asteroid City					0.955x	=	$1.05m
Sound of Freedom					0.045x	=	$0.23m
My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3					1.656x	=	$0.91m
A Haunting in Venice					0.862x	=	$1.03m
The Creator					0.573x	=	$0.92m

Genre comps hard to come by, these are more based on similar recent daily pace + SoF just for reference. Outlook same as my report a week ago.

Hilts · October 22, 2023

23 hours ago, Hilts said:

Five Nights at Freddy's OK

Thursday - showings starting 2pm

Day Theatres Showings Daily Sold Total Sold Total Seats % Sold Growth

T-9 23 104 131 1,352 15,588 8.67% 10.73%

T-8 23 110 91 1,443 16,176 8.92% 6.73%

T-7 23 122 97 1,540 17,247 8.93% 6.72%

T-6 23 127 163 1,703 17,848 9.54% 10.58%

T-5 23 133 133 1,836 18,653 9.84% 7.81%

MTC1 7 28 +41 711 2,994 23.75% 6.12%

MTC2 4 43 +50 429 6,015 7.13% 13.19%

MTC3 3 35 +20 414 5,855 7.07% 5.08%

Other 9 27 +22 282 3,789 7.44% 8.46%

Comps

Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One 1.613x = $14.20m

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem 2.646x = $14.81m

Haunted Mansion 5.667x = $17.57m

Oppenheimer 0.925x = $9.72m

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny 1.363x = $9.81m

Five Nights at Freddy's							OK

Thursday - showings starting 2pm

Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-8	23	110	91	1,443	16,176	8.92%	6.73%
T-7	23	122	97	1,540	17,247	8.93%	6.72%
T-6	23	127	163	1,703	17,848	9.54%	10.58%
T-5	23	133	133	1,836	18,653	9.84%	7.81%
T-4	23	137	128	1,964	18,992	10.34%	6.97%

MTC1	7	32	+33	744	3,333	22.32%	4.64%
MTC2	4	43	+16	445	6,015	7.40%	3.73%
MTC3	3	35	+31	445	5,855	7.60%	7.49%
Other	9	27	+48	330	3,789	8.71%	17.02%

Comps
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					1.514x	=	$13.33m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem					2.404x	=	$13.46m
Haunted Mansion					5.280x	=	$16.37m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					1.362x	=	$9.81m

Dropped on all comps today but the Tuesday releases are messing with it. Oppy is getting too low now so that's gone.

Good day for the smaller chains strangely despite no extra showings being added there.

Growth tomorrow will be interesting. I think 200+ tickets is a good target.

Hilts · October 22, 2023

On 10/21/2023 at 9:34 PM, Hilts said:

The Marvels OK

Thursday - showings starting 3pm

Day Theatres Showings Daily Sold Total Sold Total Seats % Sold Growth

T-23 21 173 17 457 32,650 1.40% 3.86%

T-22 21 173 22 479 32,650 1.47% 4.81%

T-21 21 173 14 493 32,650 1.51% 2.92%

T-20 21 173 15 508 32,650 1.56% 3.04%

T-19 21 173 27 535 32,650 1.64% 5.31%

MTC1 8 59 +12 279 10,485 2.66% 4.49%

MTC2 4 48 +2 64 8,204 0.78% 3.23%

MTC3 3 39 +8 151 8,077 1.87% 5.59%

Other 6 27 +5 41 5,884 0.70% 13.89%

Comps

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny 0.718x = $5.17m

Barbie 0.430x = $9.56m

Oppenheimer 0.740x = $7.77m

Five Nights at Freddy's 0.698x

The Marvels							OK

Thursday - showings starting 3pm

Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-22	21	173	22	479	32,650	1.47%	4.81%
T-21	21	173	14	493	32,650	1.51%	2.92%
T-20	21	173	15	508	32,650	1.56%	3.04%
T-19	21	173	27	535	32,650	1.64%	5.31%
T-18	21	173	14	549	32,650	1.68%	2.62%

MTC1	8	59	+9	288	10,485	2.75%	3.23%
MTC2	4	48	+3	67	8,204	0.82%	4.69%
MTC3	3	39	0	151	8,077	1.87%	0.00%
Other	6	27	+2	43	5,884	0.73%	4.88%

Comps
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					0.705x	=	$5.07m
Barbie					0.424x	=	$9.42m
Oppenheimer					0.723x	=	$7.59m
Five Nights at Freddy's					0.685x

Still plodding along. TMNT and Blue Beetle comps coming soon.

TheFlatLannister · October 22, 2023

On 10/21/2023 at 6:31 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

WISH

Tuesday Previews

T-31

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

153

539

27838

1.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

10

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

SELLOUTS

0

COMPS

nothing yet

395 seats sold at MTC1 Disney over 6 showings

2 seats sold today outside of Disney springs

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

WISH

Tuesday Previews

T-30

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
153	543	27838	2.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

4

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

SELLOUTS

0

COMPS

Tomorrow I will have comp

402 seats sold at MTC1 Disney over 6 showings

TheFlatLannister · October 22, 2023

On 10/21/2023 at 6:33 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

Trolls: Band Together

Thursday Previews

T-26

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

171

194

31233

0.62%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

-4

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

SELLOUTS

0

COMPS

T-26

(0.536x) of Elemental $1.29M Previews

No sales today. 4 returns

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

Trolls: Band Together

Thursday Previews

T-25

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
171	230	31233	0.74%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

36

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

SELLOUTS

0

COMPS

T-25

(0.620x) of Elemental $1.49M Previews

1 showing is listed as "sold-out" but im skeptical

TheFlatLannister · October 22, 2023

On 10/21/2023 at 6:37 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

The Marvels

Thursday Previews

T-19

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

259

2166

52152

4.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

17

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

SELLOUTS

0

COMPS

T-19

(0.453x) of GOTG3~$7.93M Previews

(1.211x) of Indy 5~$8.72M Previews

Comps AVG: $8.33M

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

The Marvels

Thursday Previews

T-18

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
259	2179	52152	4.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

13

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

SELLOUTS

0

COMPS

T-18

(0.450x) of GOTG3~$7.88M Previews

(1.191x) of Indy 5~$8.57M Previews

Comps AVG: $8.23M

TheFlatLannister · October 22, 2023

On 10/21/2023 at 6:41 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

FIVE NIGHTS AT FREDDY'S

Thursday Previews

T-5

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

205

3625

38173

9.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

94

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

SELLOUTS

0

COMPS

T-5

(1.121x) of Flash $10.88M Previews

(0.737x) of ATSV $12.78M Previews

(1.885x) of Fast X $14.14M Previews

(0.581x) of Barbie $12.26M Previews

Comps AVG: $12.52M

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

FIVE NIGHTS AT FREDDY'S

Thursday Previews

T-4

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
205	3864	38173	10.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

239

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

SELLOUTS

0

COMPS

T-4

(1.152x) of Flash $11.17M Previews

(0.696x) of ATSV $12.08M Previews

(1.918x) of Fast X $14.38M Previews

(0.574x) of Barbie $12.11M Previews

Comps AVG: $12.44M

Another excellent day

Relevation · October 22, 2023

49 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

COMPS

Tomorrow I will have comp

That Elemental comp is gonna be freakishly huge out of the gate because of the 9 extra days lol

Any chance you have a Haunted Mansion comp on hand?

vafrow · October 23, 2023

On 10/21/2023 at 8:03 PM, vafrow said:

Five Nights at Freddy's, T-5, western GTA (southern Ontario)

Tickets sold: 981

New sales: 194

Growth: 24.7%

Theatres: 10

Showtimes: 32

Tickets per showtime: 30.7

Chains tracked: MTC4, via manual count from chain app

COMPS

9.08x Saw X for $18.1M

N/A for Nun 2

15.57x Exorcist Believer for $44.4M

Local single theatre comps

1.16x of ATSV for $20.2M

0.80x of Barbie for $17.9M

This continues it's strong pace. I've thrown in Barbie at the local level, and it's not out of place. Still holding strong against Saw X.

It's going to start hitting capacity issues in the next couple of days for the peak time shows. Again, the lack of widespread weekend sets is probably part of that. With the young demographic for this, I expect that people will jump on that when tickets become available on Tuesday.

I also am not convinced this is heading towards a horrendous review that'll crush the legs. Demand seems too high, and capacity too low. Plus, younger demos aren't getting out Thursday night to watch this.

But, I also recognize that my current tracking may not be the most predictive. Especially with a couple of comps being single theatre comparisons.

I'm wondering if this overindexing is a Canadian thing or local thing. If anyone tracking Canadian theatres is looking at this film, I wouldn't mind seeing how their numbers are playing out.

Five Nights at Freddy's, T-4, western GTA (southern Ontario)

Tickets sold: 1286

New sales: 285

Growth: 29.1%

Theatres: 10

Showtimes: 32

Tickets per showtime: 39.7

Chains tracked: MTC4, via manual count from chain app

COMPS

9.81x Saw X for $19.6M

25.15x Nun 2 for $77.8M

Local Single Theatre Comps

1.26x ATSV for $21.8M

0.85x Barbie for $19.0M

Not sure what else to say. This continues to do well down the stretch. Any other comp I could throw at it would have it be doing even better. At the local level, it's already nearly matched what GOTG3 sold at T-1.

I've already made plans to take my kid on the weekend, and, because I'm tracking it, I know I probably have to book when it opens to get a preferred seat.

keysersoze123 · October 23, 2023

3 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

Trolls: Band Together

Thursday Previews

T-25

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

171

230

31233

0.74%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

36

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

SELLOUTS

0

COMPS

T-25

(0.620x) of Elemental $1.49M Previews

1 showing is listed as "sold-out" but im skeptical

Does it include early shows on 11/4?

YM! · October 23, 2023

25 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Does it include early shows on 11/4?

I don’t believe it does. Flat said they wasn’t tracking them at first because they thought it wasn’t noteworthy.

abracadabra1998 · October 23, 2023

On 10/19/2023 at 5:22 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

Five Nights at Freddy's (T-7):

Day: T-7 Shows New Seats Sold Seats % Sold

Totals: 17 theaters 63 271 1246 9430 13.21

Comps:

1.39x Mission Impossible 7 (Just Tuesday): $9.7 Million

0.43x Barbie (Just Thursday): $9.11 Million

1.38 Indiana Jones 5: $9.92 Million

Damn I guess this is the only region where the pace and comps aren't that remarkable. Maybe due to lack of shows? All these releases I've comped with were past or near 100 shows, meanwhile FNAF is at 63.

The Marvels (T-21):

Day: T-21 Shows New Seats Sold Seats % Sold

Totals: 17 theaters 118 134 815 21013 3.88

Comps:

0.85x Oppenheimer: $8.96 Million

Still rising against Oppy.

Trolls: Band Together (T-28):

Day: T-28, T-16 Shows New Sold Seats % Sold

Thursday: 15 theaters 53 4 8 6312 0.13

Saturday Nov 4 EA: 12 theaters 12 95 115 1594 7.21

TOTALS: 65 99 123 7906 1.56

Those EA numbers are funny, are they doing some kind of promotion or are they literally just marketing the Saturday Early Access? That discrepancy is something else. No comps for Thursday yet, but:

Trolls EA Numbers are at 0.62x of TMNT EA (both Saturday and Monday ) on T-17 and T-15 respectively = circa $1 million for Trolls EA.

Renaissance by Beyonce (T-42):

Day: T-42 Shows New Seats Sold Seats % Sold

Totals: 19 theaters 44 17 899 7836 11.47

Comp:

0.11x Taylor Swift Eras Tour (Friday): $4.16 Million

Don't take this seriously, this was 2 days into Taylor's run, that'll drop significantly by next update. Just wanted to add some fuel to some fan wars (kidding, I hella respect both artists!)

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

Five Nights at Freddy's (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	68	402	1648	10376	15.88

Type of tix:	Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:	269	N/A	16.32
MTC1:	759	140	46.06
Marcus:	276	101	16.75
Alamo:	82	9	4.98
Other chains:	531	152	32.22

Comps:

1.22x Mission Impossible 7 (Just Tuesday): $8.52 Million

0.42x Barbie (Just Thursday): $8.85 Million

1.37x Indiana Jones 5: $9.89 Million

Frustratingly, it keeps dropping. Don't know why this is underperforming here, odd. I know I have bad comps but I don't know what else could work here.

After Death (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 12 theaters	25	170	170	1886	9.01

Type of tix:	Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:	0	N/A	0
MTC1:	48	N/A	28.24
Marcus:	6	N/A	3.53
Alamo:	0	N/A	0
Other chains:	116	N/A	68.24

Comps:

0.25x Killers of the Flower Moon: $658k

1.19x Haunting in Venice: $1.43 Million

2.125x Big Fat Greek Wedding 3: $1.17 Million

0.87x Asteroid City: $960k

Not the best comps, but $1 million sounds right.

abracadabra1998 · October 23, 2023

On 10/19/2023 at 5:22 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

The Marvels (T-21):

Day: T-21 Shows New Seats Sold Seats % Sold

Totals: 17 theaters 118 134 815 21013 3.88

Comps:

0.85x Oppenheimer: $8.96 Million

Still rising against Oppy.

Trolls: Band Together (T-28):

Day: T-28, T-16 Shows New Sold Seats % Sold

Thursday: 15 theaters 53 4 8 6312 0.13

Saturday Nov 4 EA: 12 theaters 12 95 115 1594 7.21

TOTALS: 65 99 123 7906 1.56

Those EA numbers are funny, are they doing some kind of promotion or are they literally just marketing the Saturday Early Access? That discrepancy is something else. No comps for Thursday yet, but:

Trolls EA Numbers are at 0.62x of TMNT EA (both Saturday and Monday ) on T-17 and T-15 respectively = circa $1 million for Trolls EA.

Renaissance by Beyonce (T-42):

Day: T-42 Shows New Seats Sold Seats % Sold

Totals: 19 theaters 44 17 899 7836 11.47

Comp:

0.11x Taylor Swift Eras Tour (Friday): $4.16 Million

Don't take this seriously, this was 2 days into Taylor's run, that'll drop significantly by next update. Just wanted to add some fuel to some fan wars (kidding, I hella respect both artists!)

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

The Marvels (T-18):

Day: T-18	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	119	74	889	21133	4.21

Type of tix:	Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:	701	N/A	78.85
MTC1:	454	44	51.07
Marcus:	93	2	10.46
Alamo:	91	5	10.24
Other chains:	251	23	28.23

Comps:

0.82x Oppenheimer: $8.6 Million

1.23x Mission Impossible 7 (w/ EA): $11.08 Million

1.42x FNAF: ???

Trolls: Band Together (T-25):

Day: T-25, T-13	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 15 theaters	53	0	8	6304	0.13
Saturday Nov 4 EA: 12 theaters	12	61	176	1594	11.04
TOTALS:	65	61	184	7898	2.33

Type of tix:	Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:	0	0	0
MTC1:	44	24	23.91
Marcus:	47	21	25.54
Alamo:	78	10	42.39
Other chains:	15	6	8.15

Trolls EA numbers:

0.79x of TMNT EA (both Saturday and Monday ) on T-13 and T-11 respectively = circa $1.3 million for Trolls EA.

0.49x of MI7 EA on T-13 = circa $1 million for Trolls EA

Renaissance by Beyonce (T-39):

Day: T-39	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 19 theaters	44	16	915	7836	11.68

Type of tix:	Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:	775	N/A	84.7
MTC1:	801	9	87.54
Marcus:	48	2	5.25
Alamo:	14	0	1.53
Other chains:	52	5	5.68

Comp:

0.0896x Taylor Swift Eras Tour (Friday): $3.11 Million

Porthos · October 23, 2023

On 10/22/2023 at 12:18 AM, Porthos said:

The Marvels Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-19 days and counting

Capped

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

0

189

26652

27628

976

3.53%

Total Seats Sold Today

32

T-19 Comps:

%

Sold
T-19

Total

Sold

Sellouts

Shows

Seats Left

Total Seats

Perct

Sold

Final

Sold

% of

Final

Comp

Eternal

65.99

55

1479

0/96

14064/15543

9.52%

6409

15.23%

7.09m

GOTG3

29.85

87

3270

0/206

26377/29647

11.03%

10750

9.08%

5.22m

TLM

88.33

73

1105

0/153

21474/22579

4.89%

6561

14.88%

9.10m

AtSV

60.96

42

1601

0/123

18301/19902

8.04%

9744

10.02%

10.58m

Flash

100.00

51

976

0/178

24172/25148

3.88%

5327

18.32%

9.70m

Indy 5

95.41

48

1023

0/124

18498/19521

5.24%

4767

20.47%

6.87m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Marvel's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ETERNAL COMP NOTE: The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x to reflect the difference in ATP between now and late 2021, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

Regal:    145/8661 [1.67% sold]
Matinee:   36/2547 [1.41% | 3.69% of all tickets sold]
3D:           64/5039 [1.27% | 6.56% of all tickets sold]

The Marvels Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-18 days and counting

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	189	26569	27574	1005	3.64%

Total Seats Sold Today

29

T-18 Comps:

	%	Sold T-18	Total Sold	Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold	Final Sold	% of Final	Comp
Eternal	64.84	71	1550	0/96	13991/15541	9.97%	6409	15.68%	6.96m
GOTG3	29.91	90	3360	0/206	26287/29647	11.33%	10750	9.35%	5.23m
TLM	86.64	55	1160	0/153	21416/22576	5.14%	6561	15.32%	8.92m
AtSV	59.75	81	1682	0/123	18234/19916	8.45%	9744	10.31%	10.37m
Flash	99.50	34	1010	0/178	24138/25148	4.02%	5327	18.87%	9.65m
Indy 5	94.99	35	1058	0/124	18463/19521	5.42%	4767	21.08%	6.84m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Marvel's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ETERNAL COMP NOTE: The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x to reflect the difference in ATP between now and late 2021, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

Regal:    145/8661 [1.67% sold]
Matinee:   36/2547 [1.41% | 3.58% of all tickets sold]
3D:           65/5021 [1.29% | 6.47% of all tickets sold]

Porthos · October 23, 2023

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

Five Nights At Freddy's Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-5 days and counting

Capped

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

0

157

18176

21232

3056

14.39%

Total Showings Added Today

4

Total Seats Added Today

168

Total Seats Sold Today

186

T-5 Comps:   WARNING - USE MOSTLY FOR DAILY PACE PURPOSES FOR THE BELOW COMPS

%

Sold
T-5

Total

Sold

Sellouts

Shows

Seats Left

Total Seats

Perct

Sold

Final

Sold

% of

Final

Comp

BA

182.99

149

1670

0/169

22641/24311

6.87%

4494

68.00%

13.72m

Scrm6

266.43

75

1147

0/77

8600/9747

11.77%

3134

97.51%

15.19m

Wick4

148.06

166

2064

0/118

14480/16544

12.48%

5448

56.09%

13.18m

AtSV

85.53

278

3573

0/142

18901/22474

15.90%

9744

31.36%

14.84m

GOTG3

58.62

265

5213

0/226

26601/31814

16.39%

10750

28.43%

10.26m

TLM

113.31

124

2697

0/175

22324/25021

10.78%

6561

46.58%

11.67m

Flash

151.06

135

2023

0/178

23122/25145

8.05%

5327

57.37%

14.65m

Barbie

60.63

470

5040

1/180

16708/21748

23.17%

12077

25.30%

13.52m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of FNAFs current tickets sold versus that final number.

Regal:    637/4382 [14.54% sold]
Matinee:   234/926 [25.27% | 7.66% of all tickets sold]

Five Nights At Freddy's Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-4 days and counting

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	159	18168	21466	3298	15.36%

Total Showings Added Today	2
Total Seats Added Today	234
Total Seats Sold Today	242

T-4 Comps: WARNING - USE MOSTLY FOR DAILY PACE PURPOSES FOR THE BELOW COMPS

	%	Sold T-4	Total Sold	Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold	Final Sold	% of Final	Comp
BA	174.87	216	1886	0/169	22425/24311	7.76%	4494	73.39%	13.12m
Scrm6	261.33	115	1262	0/78	8602/9864	12.79%	3134	105.23%	14.90m
Wick4	143.08	241	2305	0/119	14274/16579	13.90%	5448	60.54%	12.73m
AtSV	83.64	370	3943	0/142	18531/22474	17.54%	9744	33.85%	14.51m
GOTG3	57.67	506	5719	0/227	26231/31950	17.90%	10750	30.68%	10.09m
TLM	107.95	358	3055	0/177	22304/25359	12.05%	6561	50.27%	11.12m
Flash	150.18	173	2196	0/178	22946/25142	8.73%	5327	61.91%	14.57m
Barbie	58.22	625	5665	1/180	16083/21748	26.05%	12077	27.31%	12.98m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of FNAFs current tickets sold versus that final number.

Regal: 696/4688 [14.85% sold]
Matinee: 246/926 [26.57% | 7.46% of all tickets sold]

===

Yeah, I ain't gonna lie here; would have liked to see a stronger Sat->Sun jump. It did do relatively well against the Across the Spider-Verse comp, but that was being dragged down by MDW (with Sunday acting like a pseudo/quasi Super Saturday).

See if it was just a one day blip locally, but could be the relative frontloading + not having reviews/social media reactions out yet finally rearing its head. Also could just be a one day blip.

vafrow · October 23, 2023

21 hours ago, vafrow said:

The Marvels, T-19, western GTA (southern Ontario)

Tickets sold: 512

New sales: 6

Growth: 1.2%

Theatres: 9 of 10

Showtimes: 39

Tickets per showtime: 13.1

Chains tracked: MTC4, via manual count from chain app

COMPS

No reasonable comps available for regional population

Single theatre comp:

0.625x of ATSV for $10.8M

Not much of an update. Totals barely moved, and the local comp was also static. Although, this is around the point where ATSV started moving, so, unless Marvels picks up pace, it'll likely drop.

The Marvels, T-18, western GTA (southern Ontario)

Tickets sold: 529

New sales: 17

Growth: 3.3%

Theatres: 9 of 10

Showtimes: 39

Tickets per showtime: 13.6

Chains tracked: MTC4, via manual count from chain app

COMPS

No reasonable comps available for regional population

Single theatre comp:

0.556x of ATSV for $9.6M

Still not much. And with Halloween coming up, I don't expect too much over the next week.

Edited October 23, 2023 by vafrow

M37 · October 23, 2023

On 10/20/2023 at 11:09 AM, M37 said:

Five Nights at Freddy's Preview Tracking T-7 Update

I can't recall the last film track that had me so ... conflicted, with the raw data clearly showing an up arrow, while having to weight that against outside factors pulling it down. Going to delve a bit deep, so using spoiler boxes to limit length of post

Thursday Preview:

Chart update here, where the average has wobbled a bit but remained around $13M+

Further analysis

Reveal hidden contents

Perhaps more importantly, we're definitely seeing some convergence happening, where the higher value comps are starting to drift down, while - despite the purposeful choice of higher pace comps - the lower level values are coming up, which only increases confidence in the expected value. (The one exception are the OK comps for Barbie & Oppy, but with @Hilts new to the tracking team, fewer comps to choose from, and wouldn't read too much into that trend)

When delving down a bit and looking at pace (growth rate), there is really nothing that suggests a slowdown is imminent; the 7-day and 3-day growth rate ranges are +45%-60% and +18%-28% respectively for most samples, with only typically higher early sale samples Orlando and Drafthouse falling outside than that range. For comparison, ATSV was in the +36%-55% and +18-26% range for that same time period. Flash also had a fairly poor final week, and even those comp values are in a similar range if FNAF follows suit

However, a few caveats:

ATP - the values here are based on a straight comparison of tickets sold, and with FNAF having limited PLF shows and the potential for a higher share of discounted if not child at least student rate tickets, the actual value is likely a bit lower

Streaming - The elephant in room regarding this opening, the simultaneous release on Peakcock, has only grown bigger with the advertising now including Thursday night. Per CNET, it debuts at 8PM ET on 10/26, and could undercut potential Thursday sales

Capacity - Hopefully theaters come around when setting schedules this week, but a present there is a limit on supply that could diminish potential sales

Overall, ~$13M Previews still sounds right, with pace at present suggesting higher potential - challenging IT's $13.5M horror record - but with added uncertainty and several reasons why we shouldn't be surprised if it were to land lower. Without hitting some kind of major wall that data at present doesn't suggest, can't really see much lower than $11M though

So what about the Opening Weekend?

Reveal hidden contents

Here's where it gets far more complicated. Noted upthread that every Sept/Oct release thusfar has managed at least a 3x Thu-->TFri, though from sales patterns seems likely FNAF won't make the same jump, and probably performs more like a CBM or Franchise film. Some potential comps

Black Widow = 1.99x (summer, Day & Date, COVID)

Venom 2 = 2.23x

Black Adam = 2.51x

Halloween Ends = 2.77x

Fast X = 2.74

Maybe in the worst case something like Black Widow, but more likely IMO in the 2.2-2.75 range as the D&D release starts to work against it. Still believe a $40M+ OD is happening, which would best Joker's top mark (#163) for October. But after that ...

Saturday and Sunday sales are especially weak; in Drafthouse, Sat tickets sold are only at 70% of Thursday, which is the lowest at T-7 ratio I have down except for Flash, where Sat only increased 60% from Thur. However, the next closest are Fast X and Black Adam, so a strong final week and/or walk-up rate can make up a lot of ground there.

As referenced above, Halloween Kills and Ends made 46% and 51% of the OW through Friday as they saw a -4% and -13% Sat respectively, and still believe a very good chance FNAF sees a similar Sat drop. For Sunday, both were in neighborhood of -45%, though with the rating (R vs PG13) and age skew, maybe it can hold a bit better (or worse?)

Putting all the math together works out to an IM of around 7x, potentially lower depending on where Friday land, though can't rule out higher if walk-ups are strong and Peacock doesn't inflict too much damage

Rolling up the analysis together get me to here, with a midpoint right around Venom 2, higher than the top end of @Shawn's updated LRF

FNAF OW Forecast Matrix
Thursday Preview Gross Range

$11.0 $11.4 $11.9 $12.3 $12.8 $13.2 $13.6 $14.1 $14.5

Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)
6.00 $66.0 $68.6 $71.3 $73.9 $76.5 $79.1 $81.8 $84.4 $87.0

6.25 $68.8 $71.5 $74.2 $77.0 $79.7 $82.4 $85.2 $87.9 $90.6

6.50 $71.5 $74.3 $77.2 $80.0 $82.9 $85.7 $88.6 $91.4 $94.3

6.75 $74.3 $77.2 $80.2 $83.1 $86.1 $89.0 $92.0 $94.9 $97.9

7.00 $77.0 $80.1 $83.1 $86.2 $89.3 $92.3 $95.4 $98.4 $101.5

7.25 $79.8 $82.9 $86.1 $89.3 $92.4 $95.6 $98.8 $102.0 $105.1

7.50 $82.5 $85.8 $89.1 $92.3 $95.6 $98.9 $102.2 $105.5 $108.8

7.75 $85.3 $88.6 $92.0 $95.4 $98.8 $102.2 $105.6 $109.0 $112.4

8.00 $88.0 $91.5 $95.0 $98.5 $102.0 $105.5 $109.0 $112.5 $116.0

Not ruling out the higher end of a $100M+ OW, but tempering expectations a bit due to outside factors working against that outcome

Final thought

Reveal hidden contents

Despite two major challengers in 2 weeks, Joker may hold onto the October OW after all

Reveal hidden contents

getting the ... last laugh

Five Nights at Freddy's Preview Tracking T-4 Update

Not really enough new data points to update the chart, though the average is in roughly the same ~$13M spot (before adjusting for ATP). With that said, the sales growth over the weekend was ... shall we say uninspiring. The pace fell back into a range that includes two sets of divergent comps: the Indy/Avatar grouping, which had softer final days due in large part to a more mature audience, and the Scream IV/Fast X range, franchise films which - for differing reasons - had already plucked a lot of the lower hanging sales opportunity and so ramped up more slowly, yet still had solid, walk-up friendly finishes.

Given the nature of FNAF, skewing to a younger audience and to the non-fan base still a horror film, definitely leaning towards the Scream VI/Fast X trajectory from here, but even that path does lower the ceiling for Thursday. Need to see 1-2 more days of data to be able to project finals with some precision, but right now I'm definitely leaning under on that $13M average

TwoMisfits · October 23, 2023

27 minutes ago, M37 said:

Five Nights at Freddy's Preview Tracking T-4 Update

Not really enough new data points to update the chart, though the average is in roughly the same ~$13M spot (before adjusting for ATP). With that said, the sales growth over the weekend was ... shall we say uninspiring. The pace fell back into a range that includes two sets of divergent comps: the Indy/Avatar grouping, which had softer final days due in large part to a more mature audience, and the Scream IV/Fast X range, franchise films which - for differing reasons - had already plucked a lot of the lower hanging sales opportunity and so ramped up more slowly, yet still had solid, walk-up friendly finishes.

Given the nature of FNAF, skewing to a younger audience and to the non-fan base still a horror film, definitely leaning towards the Scream VI/Fast X trajectory from here, but even that path does lower the ceiling for Thursday. Need to see 1-2 more days of data to be able to project finals with some precision, but right now I'm definitely leaning under on that $13M average

So, what you're saying is, you'll be joining the $10M team by Wednesday:)...

(Thursday walkups will be tough for school - the older base and subscriber base are gonna have to float Thursday, so don't be surprised by poor walkups Thursday relative to Friday. Even in summer, Minions 2 blew up Friday, not AS much Thursday...and then had a real Saturday drop)...

M37 · October 23, 2023

25 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

So, what you're saying is, you'll be joining the $10M team by Wednesday:)...

(Thursday walkups will be tough for school - the older base and subscriber base are gonna have to float Thursday, so don't be surprised by poor walkups Thursday relative to Friday. Even in summer, Minions 2 blew up Friday, not AS much Thursday...and then had a real Saturday drop)...

I don’t disagree with this assessment, but again it’s still a horror film, albeit PG13, so there’s solid walk-up potential for Thursday, and both pace and volume are still high enough that the floor is IMO ~$10.5M or so. But $11-$12M wouldn’t surprise me if pace doesn’t see some increase in next day or two, as the teens recongregate for school and drive sales

Still believe over $40M OD (including previews) and $80M+ OW is happening, just may be more Friday heavy than IM math in original post anticipated, something along lines of $11M/8x rather than $13M/7x

Day: T-7	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	63	271	1246	9430	13.21

Day: T-21	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	118	134	815	21013	3.88

Day: T-28, T-16	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 15 theaters	53	4	8	6312	0.13
Saturday Nov 4 EA: 12 theaters	12	95	115	1594	7.21
TOTALS:	65	99	123	7906	1.56

Day: T-42	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 19 theaters	44	17	899	7836	11.47

	%	Sold T-19	Total Sold	Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold	Final Sold	% of Final	Comp
Eternal	65.99	55	1479	0/96	14064/15543	9.52%	6409	15.23%	7.09m
GOTG3	29.85	87	3270	0/206	26377/29647	11.03%	10750	9.08%	5.22m
TLM	88.33	73	1105	0/153	21474/22579	4.89%	6561	14.88%	9.10m
AtSV	60.96	42	1601	0/123	18301/19902	8.04%	9744	10.02%	10.58m
Flash	100.00	51	976	0/178	24172/25148	3.88%	5327	18.32%	9.70m
Indy 5	95.41	48	1023	0/124	18498/19521	5.24%	4767	20.47%	6.87m

	%	Sold T-5	Total Sold	Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold	Final Sold	% of Final	Comp
BA	182.99	149	1670	0/169	22641/24311	6.87%	4494	68.00%	13.72m
Scrm6	266.43	75	1147	0/77	8600/9747	11.77%	3134	97.51%	15.19m
Wick4	148.06	166	2064	0/118	14480/16544	12.48%	5448	56.09%	13.18m
AtSV	85.53	278	3573	0/142	18901/22474	15.90%	9744	31.36%	14.84m
GOTG3	58.62	265	5213	0/226	26601/31814	16.39%	10750	28.43%	10.26m
TLM	113.31	124	2697	0/175	22324/25021	10.78%	6561	46.58%	11.67m
Flash	151.06	135	2023	0/178	23122/25145	8.05%	5327	57.37%	14.65m
Barbie	60.63	470	5040	1/180	16708/21748	23.17%	12077	25.30%	13.52m

FNAF OW Forecast Matrix		Thursday Preview Gross Range
FNAF OW Forecast Matrix		$11.0	$11.4	$11.9	$12.3	$12.8	$13.2	$13.6	$14.1	$14.5
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)	6.00	$66.0	$68.6	$71.3	$73.9	$76.5	$79.1	$81.8	$84.4	$87.0
	6.25	$68.8	$71.5	$74.2	$77.0	$79.7	$82.4	$85.2	$87.9	$90.6
	6.50	$71.5	$74.3	$77.2	$80.0	$82.9	$85.7	$88.6	$91.4	$94.3
	6.75	$74.3	$77.2	$80.2	$83.1	$86.1	$89.0	$92.0	$94.9	$97.9
	7.00	$77.0	$80.1	$83.1	$86.2	$89.3	$92.3	$95.4	$98.4	$101.5
	7.25	$79.8	$82.9	$86.1	$89.3	$92.4	$95.6	$98.8	$102.0	$105.1
	7.50	$82.5	$85.8	$89.1	$92.3	$95.6	$98.9	$102.2	$105.5	$108.8
	7.75	$85.3	$88.6	$92.0	$95.4	$98.8	$102.2	$105.6	$109.0	$112.4
	8.00	$88.0	$91.5	$95.0	$98.5	$102.0	$105.5	$109.0	$112.5	$116.0

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