The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[TheFlatLannister]

21 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

MIGRATION 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-19

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
176	200	33106	0.60%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

-2

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-19

 

(0.678x) of Trolls 3 $881k Previews

(0.499x) of Elemental $1.20M Previews

Comps AVG: $1.04M

 

2 returns, no sales

 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

MIGRATION 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-18

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
176	202	33106	0.61%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

2

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-18

 

(0.680x) of Trolls 3 $884k Previews

(0.494x) of Elemental $1.18M Previews

Comps AVG: $1.03M

[TheFlatLannister]

22 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

AQUAMAN AND THE LOST KINGDOM

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-19

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
191	819	38536	2.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

8

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-19

 

(0.378x) of The Marvels $2.50M Previews

(0.458x) of Indy 5 $3.30M Previews

(0.171x) of GOTG 3 $3.00M Previews

(0.432x) of The Flash $4.19M Previews

Comps AVG: $3.25M

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

AQUAMAN AND THE LOST KINGDOM

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-18

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
191	850	38536	2.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

31

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-18

 

(0.390x) of The Marvels $2.57M Previews

(0.464) of Indy 5 $3.34M Previews

(0.176x) of GOTG 3 $3.08M Previews

(0.437x) of The Flash $4.23M Previews

Comps AVG: $3.31M

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

The Color Purple

 

Previews 

 

T-23

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
160	1598	29935	5.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-23

 

Comp with Thursday previews 

(2.722x) of Wish $4.90M Previews

(1.614x) of Haunted Mansion $5.00M Previews

(0.831x) of TLM $8.55M Previews

Comps AVG: $6.15M

 

Looks like many shows were unblocked...BUT HOLY this has mini breakout written all over it 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

The Color Purple

 

Christmas 

 

T-22

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
160	1648	29935	5.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

50

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-22

 

Comps with Thursday previews 

(2.751x) of Wish $4.95M 

(1.637x) of Haunted Mansion $5.07M 

(0.834x) of TLM $8.59M 

Comps AVG: $6.20M

Edited December 3, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[keysersoze123]

41 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

The Color Purple

 

Previews 

 

T-22

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
160	1648	29935	5.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

50

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-22

 

Comp with Thursday previews 

(2.751x) of Wish $4.95M Previews

(1.637x) of Haunted Mansion $5.07M Previews

(0.834x) of TLM $8.59M Previews

Comps AVG: $6.20M

FYI this is not previews. its full day of box office. 

[TheFlatLannister]

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

FYI this is not previews. its full day of box office. 

ah didn't catch that. Thx

[filmlover]

I just noticed that a bunch of theaters are also going to be having Private Watch Party options for The Color Purple. In addition to sales for it looking to be massive for Christmas Day (though it has sold a nice amount for the days after as well). Obviously this is likely to be frontloaded initially but I feel like if reviews/WOM are exceptionally strong, I feel like this could be the one with potential as the surprise hit for the holidays we didn't see coming, especially as the only movie this month that seems to have any sort of genuine excitement around it.

[rehpyc]

Good pointing that out, @keysersoze123

 

Not sure if it’s been noted here already, but WBD partnered with Fandango for the whole gifting/pay-it-forward due to Angel Studio’s success before. Probably won’t be as widely known & leveraged, but could help drive a boost.

 

https://thecolorpurple.egifter.com/

[abracadabra1998]

On 11/30/2023 at 9:53 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

The Boy and the Heron (T-7):

Day: T-7, T-6, T-4	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 14 theaters	28	85	267	3852	6.93
Wednesday EA: 8 theaters	8	55	277	1657	16.72
Monday IMAX EA: 3 theaters	3	157	382	811	47.1
TOTALS:	39	297	926	6320	14.65

 

Thursday comps:

1.21x Godzilla Minus One: ?? (using average from earlier update= $1.33 Million)

0.5x Killers of the Flower Moon: $1.29 Million

0.3x MI7: $2.08 Million

1.12x Asteroid City: $1.23 Million

 

EA Comp:

1.16x Godzilla Minus One EA: ??

 

Not bad at all a week out, keeps growing against comps.

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

The Boy and the Heron (T-4):

Day: T-4, T-3, T-1	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 16 theaters	29	129	396	4123	9.6
Wednesday EA: 8 theaters	8	106	383	1657	23.11
Monday IMAX EA: 3 theaters	4	137	519	1082	47.97
TOTALS:	41	372	1298	6862	18.92

 

Thursday comps:

0.97x Napoleon: $2.93 Million

0.59x Killers of the Flower Moon: $1.53 Million

0.29x MI7: $2.05 Million

1.26x Asteroid City: $1.39 Million

 

EA Comps:

0.77x Barbie: $850k

1.25x Godzilla Minus One: ??

 

Godzilla Minus One Comp (THU + EA): 1.36x: $2.87 Million

 

Stellar numbers, I understand this will be frontloaded, but these numbers, especially the EA, are awesome. 

[abracadabra1998]

On 11/30/2023 at 10:05 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Wonka (T-14):

Day: T-14	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	69	34	192	13889	1.38

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		162	28	84.38
MTC1:		118	21	61.46
Marcus:		25	6	13.02
Alamo:		20	1	10.42
Other chains:		29	6	15.1

 

Comps:

0.15x Barbie (THU): $3.23 Million

1.64x Wish (TUE): $2.95 Million

1.2x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $3.72 Million

 

Average: $3.3 Million

 

Pretty disappointing update with the pace really slowing down after a few good weeks. Same here, no meaningful bump at all from social media reactions. I'll add Hunger Games and Indy 5 next update.

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Wonka (T-11):

Day: T-11	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	69	50	242	13889	1.74

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		194	32	80.17
MTC1:		146	28	60.33
Marcus:		24	-1	9.92
Alamo:		34	14	14.05
Other chains:		38	9	15.7

 

Comps:

0.14x Barbie (THU): $2.97 Million

1.72x Wish (TUE): $3.09 Million

1.42x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $4.39 Million

0.56x Hunger Games: $3.24 Million

0.28x Indiana Jones: $2.04 Million

 

Average: $3.15 Million

 

I'll run with these comps from now on.

[abracadabra1998]

On 11/30/2023 at 10:14 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom (T-21):

Day: T-21	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	82	31	197	15086	1.31

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		175	22	88.83
MTC1:		129	26	65.48
Marcus:		33	0	16.75
Alamo:		15	1	7.61
Other chains:		20	4	10.15

 

Comps:

0.24x The Marvels: $1.6 Million

0.39x FNAF: $4.02 Million

0.51x MI7: $3.58 Million

0.21x Oppenheimer: $2.17 Million

 

Average: $2.84 Million

 

Just gonna throw everything at the wall for the moment and see what sticks in terms of comps, at least until I have Blue Beetle (T-11).

 

Migration (T-21):

Day: T-21	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 15 theaters	67	5	12	8367	0.14

 

Comp:

0.75x Trolls Band Together: $975k*

*At small number sales, there is high variation when it comes to comps.

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom (T-18):

Day: T-18	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	82	18	215	15086	1.43

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		192	17	89.3
MTC1:		136	7	63.26
Marcus:		33	0	15.35
Alamo:		17	2	7.91
Other chains:		29	9	13.49

 

Comps:

0.24x The Marvels: $1.6 Million

0.34x FNAF: $3.55 Million

MI7: Missed

0.2x Oppenheimer: $2.08 Million

 

Average: $2.41 Million

 

Not great bub.

 

Migration (T-18):

Day: T-18	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 15 theaters	67	11	23	8367	0.27

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		6	6	26.09
MTC1:		12	7	52.17
Marcus:		0	0	0
Alamo:		3	1	13.04
Other chains:		8	3	34.78

 

Comp:

1.21x Trolls Band Together: $1.57 Million*

0.28x Wish: $500k*

*At small number sales, there is high variation when it comes to comps

 

Average: $1.03 Million

[PrinceRico]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

I just noticed that a bunch of theaters are also going to be having Private Watch Party options for The Color Purple. In addition to sales for it looking to be massive for Christmas Day (though it has sold a nice amount for the days after as well). Obviously this is likely to be frontloaded initially but I feel like if reviews/WOM are exceptionally strong, I feel like this could be the one with potential as the surprise hit for the holidays we didn't see coming, especially as the only movie this month that seems to have any sort of genuine excitement around it.

Don't films with  strong urban audiences have good walk ups .lThis is still 3 weeks away so when people realize there are no barley tickets for Christmas Day they will half to another day. Definitely could see a Hidden Figures type run. We also need to remember the original is classic that has crossover appeal and made 100 million domestic boxoffice in 1995. Spielberg himself is on record saying he was shocked when he say the boxoffice returns 3 months later. He didn't think audiences would show up even with him being the director.

Edited December 4, 2023 by PrinceRico

[harrisonisdead]

41 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

The Boy and the Heron (T-4)

 

Stellar numbers, I understand this will be frontloaded, but these numbers, especially the EA, are awesome. 

I'll be very curious to see how GKIDS goes about reporting the EA considering they haven't even been reporting its platform release numbers, which started on the 22nd. Seems possible that we'll literally just get one lump sum number that includes 2 weeks of NY/LA + Monday IMAX EA + Wednesday EA + Thursday previews. Wonder if there'll be any sort of breakdown of that.

[abracadabra1998]

1 hour ago, harrisonisdead said:

I'll be very curious to see how GKIDS goes about reporting the EA considering they haven't even been reporting its platform release numbers, which started on the 22nd. Seems possible that we'll literally just get one lump sum number that includes 2 weeks of NY/LA + Monday IMAX EA + Wednesday EA + Thursday previews. Wonder if there'll be any sort of breakdown of that.

 

I hope the trades get to the bottom of that, or maybe @Shawn will provide us a glimpse into it. I'm already peeved about not knowing Godzilla's EA split and The Shift's previews not even being reported, makes tracking a bit frustrating when you don't even know if it'll get reported or not

[Eric the Minion]

4 hours ago, rehpyc said:

Good pointing that out, @keysersoze123

 

Not sure if it’s been noted here already, but WBD partnered with Fandango for the whole gifting/pay-it-forward due to Angel Studio’s success before. Probably won’t be as widely known & leveraged, but could help drive a boost.

 

https://thecolorpurple.egifter.com/

Mentioned that the first time people noted how strong presales are. Very sad that this artificial inflation garbage is now being used to boost movies.

[Joyous Legion]

4 hours ago, Eric Wonka said:

Mentioned that the first time people noted how strong presales are. Very sad that this artificial inflation garbage is now being used to boost movies.

What’s artificial about it? Actual customers have decided to pay the studio the cost of a ticket in order to purchase a ticket, 

[vale9001]

On 12/2/2023 at 9:41 PM, arlandriaff said:

I also don't think Gaga would be able to pull these Beyoncé numbers (I won't even mention Taylor because she's an anomaly), but considering the AMC CEO already said they intend to release more concert films, Gaga definitely comes to mind as she basically has a concert already filmed waiting for release and has a history with Hollywood already (A Star Is Born, House of Gucci and soon Joker 2). For a weekend affair, her fans could pull some nice numbers.

 

her tour was too much times ago. Swift and Beyoncè released theirs two months after the american leg. Something around Joker release could give it some attention but a movie concert of something from 2 years before would be less an event. 

Edited December 4, 2023 by vale9001

[vafrow]

22 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Wonka, T-12, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Theatres: 5

Total Sales: 26

New Sales since last update: 1

Growth: 8%

Showtimes: 20

Radius 19km

 

Showtimes by timeslot:

Late afternoon: 4

Early Evening: 8

Late Evening: 8

 

Showtimes by format

Regular: 0

Dolby: 7

VIP: 4

IMAX: 6

4DX: 3

 

Comps

0.220x of HG:BoSS for $1.3M

 

Still just barely crawling along.

 

Wonka, T-11, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Theatres: 5

Total Sales: 26

New Sales since last update: 0

Growth: 0%

Showtimes: 20

Radius 19km

 

Showtimes by timeslot:

Late afternoon: 4

Early Evening: 8

Late Evening: 8

 

Showtimes by format

Regular: 0

Dolby: 7

VIP: 4

IMAX: 6

4DX: 3

 

Comps

0.197x of HG:BoSS for $1.1M

 

First zero sales day in a little bit.

[YachtyLogs]

On 11/29/2023 at 2:16 PM, YachtyLogs said:

No tickets for Wonka T-16 or Migration T-22. Looks like the good Wonka reactions didn't move the needle around here. 

 

Also as an aside, I'm going to be taking a hiatus from tracking while I'm on vacation for the next week and a half. I might check here and there but I wanna not be thinking about keeping up with tracking while I'm gone. 

Wanted to check if Migration still had sold any tickets today. It hasn't. 

[M37]

1 hour ago, vafrow said:

Showtimes by timeslot:

Late afternoon: 4

Early Evening: 8

Late Evening: 8

This piece of data was interesting to me, specifically that the late shows were even with the early evening, but numbers can be fluky on low volume, so did a spot check of the Tampa/St Pete market

 

Did find similar, solid sales for the late shows for a PG film, along with some obvious groups (6-8+), and a preference for Dolby over IMAX. Friday sales, however, were weaker in general. Sure looks to me like there's a solid fan/YA rush for Thursday, probably female skewing, and if so, I would lean more towards the HG:Boss/FNAF/Haunted Mansion IM range (~8x) than the more family-ish Mermaid or Ghostbusters (~10x)

 

Not be a downer (sorry @Brainbug), but ... Given where preview comps sit, in mid-$3s, looks to me like data overall is pointing towards more mid to high $20s for the OW, but with a long holiday runway to bring in families over time and leg out well. However, with PLF loss and pre-Xmas impact, that second weekend baseline for holiday legs may be only around - if not below - $10M, and suggest a total below $150M, if not closer to $100M. My general vibes/baseline is basically a slightly better Haunted Mansion but with holiday legs; but with that said, if reviews/WOM are good, then there's plenty of room in a weak market to become the first choice for the whole family, and push that overall total higher

[vafrow]

17 minutes ago, M37 said:

This piece of data was interesting to me, specifically that the late shows were even with the early evening, but numbers can be fluky on low volume, so did a spot check of the Tampa/St Pete market

 

Did find similar, solid sales for the late shows for a PG film, along with some obvious groups (6-8+), and a preference for Dolby over IMAX. Friday sales, however, were weaker in general. Sure looks to me like there's a solid fan/YA rush for Thursday, probably female skewing, and if so, I would lean more towards the HG:Boss/FNAF/Haunted Mansion IM range (~8x) than the more family-ish Mermaid or Ghostbusters (~10x)

 

Not be a downer (sorry @Brainbug), but ... Given where preview comps sit, in mid-$3s, looks to me like data overall is pointing towards more mid to high $20s for the OW, but with a long holiday runway to bring in families over time and leg out well. However, with PLF loss and pre-Xmas impact, that second weekend baseline for holiday legs may be only around - if not below - $10M, and suggest a total below $150M, if not closer to $100M. My general vibes/baseline is basically a slightly better Haunted Mansion but with holiday legs; but with that said, if reviews/WOM are good, then there's plenty of room in a weak market to become the first choice for the whole family, and push that overall total higher

 

I haven't bothered adding the sales by those metrics due to low volume, but, if it helps at all:

 

Late Afternoon:  2 (against 4 showings)

Early Evening: 20 (against 8 showings)

Late Evening: 4 (against 8 showings)

 

By format (ticket/showtimes):

Dolby: 12/7

VIP : 4/8

IMAX: 6/6

4dx: 0/3

 

Full showtimes will go up tomorrow evening, so will be detailed in Wednesdays update. Hard to see the justification in an aggressive expansion, but, not like there's a lot of alternatives for theatres.