The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[MovieMan89]

2 hours ago, Bob Train said:

Unless you're James Cameron lol

Paul King to direct Avatar 4 and 5 after Cameron passes from taking 20 years with 3 confirmed…  

[Tinalera]

Aquaman 2 

Thurs Dec 21 and Fri Dec 22 (T-8 Thur T-9 Fri)

Vancouver and Calgary Canada

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Vancouver	Thurs	3	18	27	3757	3784	0.0071
	Fri	3	16	31	3843	3874	0.0080
		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Calgary	Thurs	4	23	32	4419	4451	0.0071
	Fri	4	24	75	5131	5206	0.0144

 

 

Yea yea look what cat dragged in out of nowhere Im still kicking lol

 

Thought Id drop this off. Dec Holiday season, running around. Will try and keep Aquaman going for a bit till opening day, Ill get in what I can.

 

These numbers....Ummmmmm I mean yes its early still, all the reasons not to make assumptions but.....yea it is what it is. See if I can dig up a previous count for a comparison around same time.

Edited December 14, 2023 by Tinalera

[DAJK]

Really excited to watch The Iron Claw. Doubt it grosses more than 10M unfortunately but I think it looks great.

[vafrow]

Cineplex is offering a ridiculous deal with the trio of Warner Bros films.

 

If you buy tickets to see all three of Aquaman, Color Purple and Wonka before December 31st, you get $50 in Cineplex scene points.

 

Despite this offer going out, Color Purple still isn't up for sale either.

 

As for the deal, I'm reading the fine print and not seeing anything that would stop someone from buying cheapest single tickets to all 3 films and coming out about $10-15 ahead on the deal.

 

The gamble is that buyers won't be going alone, especially during the holidays. 

 

I'm not sure how this would impact ticket revenues, if the value of the scene points will get deducted from the ticket revenues or not.

[Tinalera]

18 minutes ago, vafrow said:

Cineplex is offering a ridiculous deal with the trio of Warner Bros films.

 

If you buy tickets to see all three of Aquaman, Color Purple and Wonka before December 31st, you get $50 in Cineplex scene points.

 

Despite this offer going out, Color Purple still isn't up for sale either.

 

As for the deal, I'm reading the fine print and not seeing anything that would stop someone from buying cheapest single tickets to all 3 films and coming out about $10-15 ahead on the deal.

 

The gamble is that buyers won't be going alone, especially during the holidays. 

 

I'm not sure how this would impact ticket revenues, if the value of the scene points will get deducted from the ticket revenues or not.

Thats interesting they are doing that. Id be very interested to see if they see people buying the cheap tickets they modify the deal to state only certain prices/show times. 

That point about the points and ticket revenue is a good one. I mean say it even splits even and the 3 tickets work out to close to 50, they're giving that money back in the points. 

Id be interested in revenue related verbiage for tax stuff if that 50 dollars is able to be written off in a way while still making the money-depends on what the whole tax thing of points and money value is.

 

that's probably a pretty fun can of worms lol

 

Edited December 14, 2023 by Tinalera

[Poseidon]

22 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

I’m starting to think Les Mis unadjusted to Les Mis adjusted could be a great comp range for TCP. 18 Xmas OD, 150 DOM for that. Adjusted would mean about 26m Xmas OD and 200 DOM.  Think that’s the range here. 

I'm not sure.

 

TCP has way more potential to reach a wider audience with its approach over christmas. Les Miserables is a huge downer, while TCP will leave the audience most probably on a way more positive note. 

 

 

[MovieMan89]

10 minutes ago, Poseidon said:

I'm not sure.

 

TCP has way more potential to reach a wider audience with its approach over christmas. Les Miserables is a huge downer, while TCP will leave the audience most probably on a way more positive note. 

 

 

I mean, is me saying possibly as high as 200 already not pretty huge? I’m not sure how it goes much higher than that. I think many forget as well that the hype pre-release for Les Mis was massive. 150 total was a pretty big letdown 

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Wonka MTC1

 

Previews(T-2) - 32659/569913 578832.01 2939 shows

Friday - 37017/955003 622869.73 4960 shows

Saturday - 34077/977165 520276.21 5049 shows

 

Thinking 3.5m previews and low to mid 30s OW with very good walkups over the weekend. 

 

Wonka MTC1

Previews(T-1) - 38759/572280 679082.21 2951 shows

Friday - 45223/965948 753518.93 5019 shows

Saturday - 40747/1024086 618282.81 5346 shows 

 

No change to my predictions. 

[vale9001]

It's kinda funny they are trying to repeat Barbie marketing moves to sell mean girls but instead of planning a well made movie with big stars from the start they gave to It this TV movie treatment.

They are discovering women buy tickets just now 😅

Edited December 14, 2023 by vale9001

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Quick and Dirty Wonka Sacramento Report [T-2]

1023/26584 (3.85% sold) [+159 tickets] 208 showtimes

1.26452x Shazam 2 at T-2                  [4.30m]
0.25755x TLM at T-2                           [2.65m]
0.18934x AtSV at T-2                          [3.29m]
0.40887x RotB at T-2                          [3.60m]
0.13432x Barbie at T-2                        [3.00m]
0.93596x Haunted Mansion at T-2    [2.90m]
0.24242x FNAF at T-2                         [2.50m]
0.65035x BOSS at T-2                        [3.74m]

 

===

 

Couple things.  Not sayin' theaters are starved for content right now, but... Not seeing any particular reason why Wonka needs 200+ showtimes locally for previews.  Not sayin', but maybe sayin'.

 

Also, yeah, somewhere in the 3s looks pretty likely.  Though it doing less than Haunted Mansion's T-2 pace (Wonka: 159 | HM: 174) isn't exactly a great omen.  OTOH, December is just flatly different than July when it comes to pre-sales, so only so much one can read from said entrails.

 

Either way, the story of this film is gonna be legs/WOM and not Thur Previews.  If cursory glances at Sacto + various markets is any gauge that is.

 

Quick and Dirty Wonka Sacramento Report [T-1]

1266/26772 (4.73% sold) [+243 tickets] 211 showtimes

 

1.18148x  Shazam 2 at T-1              [4.02m]
0.25392x TLM at T-1                       [2.62m]
0.17953x AtSV at T-1                       [3.11m]
0.36801x RotB at T-1                       [3.24m]

1.29052x Elemental at T-1               [3.10m]
0.13361x Barbie at T-1                     [2.98m]
0.88694x Haunted Mansion at T-1 [2.75m]
1.10789x  Blue Beetle at T-1            [3.66m]
0.24510x FNAF at T-1                      [2.52m]
0.64373x BOSS                                [3.70m]

 

[vafrow]

22 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Expand  

 

Wonka, T-2, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Theatres: 5

Total Sales: 119

New Sales since last update: 29

Growth: 32%

Showtimes: 19

Radius 19km

 

Tickets/Showtimes by timeslot:

Late afternoon: 17/4

Early Evening: 85/8

Late Evening: 19/7

 

Tickets/Showtimes by format

Regular: 0/0

Dolby: 48/6

VIP: 35/4

IMAX: 28/6

4DX: 8/3

 

Comps

0.326x of HG:BoSS for $1.9M

0.187x of Marvels for $1.2M

Average: $1.6M

 

Good growth again. I threw in Marvels for a comp, even though Wonka has more capacity for growth over the next 36 hours.

 

One somewhat noteworthy element, is that despite representing a lot more capacity due to auditorium size, IMAX isn't performing well for this title. It's not too surprising, as it's not the type of movie to really drive people to the premium format, but, it might keep ATP down.

 

Wonka, T-1, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Theatres: 5

Total Sales: 175

New Sales since last update: 56

Growth: 47%

Showtimes: 19

Radius 19km

 

Tickets/Showtimes by timeslot:

Late afternoon: 21/4

Early Evening: 124/8

Late Evening: 30/7

 

Tickets/Showtimes by format

Regular: 0/0

Dolby: 73/6

VIP: 43/4

IMAX: 49/6

4DX: 10/3

 

Comps

0.416x of HG:BoSS for $2.4M

0.241x of Marvels for $1.6M

Average: $2.0M

 

A really good day. If I was able to capture comps for walk upz, I'm guessing that this would rise even more given the trends, and probably land closer tp what we're seeing elsewhere.

 

Ultimately, I think I lacked good family film comps, which this is likely to mimic the moste.

[vafrow]

22 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom, T-9, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Theatres: 5

Total Sales: 69

New Sales since last update: 20

Growth: 41%

Showtimes: 23

Radius 19km

 

Tickets/Showtimes by timeslot:

Late afternoon: 8/5

Early Evening: 59 /9

Late Evening: 2/9

 

Tickets/Showtimes by format

Dolby 3D: 12/6

Dolby:  0/1

IMAX: 10/3

IMAX 3D: 24/3

4dx: 0/3

VIP 3D: 0/2

VIP: 23/1

Regular 3D: 0/3

 

Comps

0.175x of The Marvels for $1.2M

0.385x of HG:BoSS for $2.2M

0.373x of FNAF (day 1) for $3.8M

Avg: $2.4M

 

A few different things to note. Full Thursday sets are up and there was minimal expansion. Only one new screen added, along with a late show on another screen.

 

Growth remains really strong. I think people are finally paying attention to this. It still lags comps, but it's gaining.

 

I did add FNAF as a comp. This was day 1 for FNAF, that had a super short window, so tomorrow will see the comp drop most likely, but, if Aquaman is going to grow at 30% a day, then it might be a useful guide. We'll see if it holds up.

 

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom, T-8, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Theatres: 5

Total Sales: 81

New Sales since last update: 12

Growth: 17%

Showtimes: 23

Radius 19km

 

Tickets/Showtimes by timeslot:

Late afternoon: 11/5

Early Evening: 66 /9

Late Evening: 4/9

 

Tickets/Showtimes by format

Dolby 3D: 16/6

Dolby:  3/1

IMAX: 11/3

IMAX 3D: 24/3

4dx: 0/3

VIP 3D: 2/2

VIP: 25/1

Regular 3D: 0/3

 

Comps

0.200x of The Marvels for $1.3M

0.420x of HG:BoSS for $2.4M

0.234x of FNAF for $2.4M

Avg: $2.0M

 

Ticket per showtime comp

2.61x Blue Beetle for $8.6M

 

First off, not a great day, with a big drop in growth rate. It's still makig ground on Marvels and HG. It's just doing it slowly.

 

The FNAF comp is turning bad quickly as expected.

 

But, the Blue Beetle comp is probably the most eye catching. Since it's probably the best comp, I've tried to force it a bit. Blue Beetle was tracked over 48 theatres. Aquaman is only tracked against 5. BB under indexed here as well, likely due to the demographics.

 

But, BB was a really strong perfrmer down the stretch, which I don't expect Aquaman to maintain (but we'll see if this ticket trio deal gives it a boost).

 

 

[joaqs]

Taraji P Henson first had a holiday smash with Hidden Figures and now she's about to do it again.

[Gavin Feng]

 

 

[WorkingonaName]

They should just make Greatest showman 2. 

[Borobudur]

7 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Wonka MTC1

Previews(T-1) - 38759/572280 679082.21 2951 shows

Friday - 45223/965948 753518.93 5019 shows

Saturday - 40747/1024086 618282.81 5346 shows 

 

No change to my predictions. 

Without final surge, this is pretty much going for ~30m unless it pulls off Trolls' IM.

[Speedorito]

11 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

 

 

I’ve noticed that these usually end up being super inaccurate (for a large number of reasons), but the pattern seems to be that nerdy films and action films tend to rank highly, while animated/family films tend to rank lower.

 

Interesting that Beetlejuice 2 is #2 though. And Dune 2 under Ghostbusters.

[Gavin Feng]

17 minutes ago, Speedorito said:

I’ve noticed that these usually end up being super inaccurate (for a large number of reasons), but the pattern seems to be that nerdy films and action films tend to rank highly, while animated/family films tend to rank lower.

 

Interesting that Beetlejuice 2 is #2 though. And Dune 2 under Ghostbusters.

 

yes fandango is not so useful in recent years. Barbie didn't even got into that list. Marion was at #10.

 

Or maybe fandango's lists are always about fandom? Maybe that's why they seems pretty useful until 2019 cuz Avengers should do that great. 

[vafrow]

Looking at that list, and recognizing how much fandom influences results, Joker 2's absence is the most surprising. Sequel to a billion dollar grosser, plus Gaga bringing her own fandom.

 

I think your average person though has little idea on what is coming out this next year. Date changes have been all over the place, and the strikes likely made people just not pay attention to Hollywood in general.

 

It'll be interesting to see how the studios treat Superbowl advertising.

 

If we truly are in an era where tastes and opinions are changing, the few big pop culture events are the studios chance to influence what people latch onto next. There's a few big movies coming out next spring/summer that they'll need to get onto people's radar.

 

Twisters, Fall Guy and Planet of the Apes are some that I expect to get some high profile marketing.

[babz06]

52 minutes ago, Speedorito said:

I’ve noticed that these usually end up being super inaccurate (for a large number of reasons), but the pattern seems to be that nerdy films and action films tend to rank highly, while animated/family films tend to rank lower.

 

Interesting that Beetlejuice 2 is #2 though. And Dune 2 under Ghostbusters.

It definitely skews to fan driven titles, branded ip and films with trailers already out.  Also the rankings don’t really matter. 
 

Last year Barbie and Oppenheimer weren’t even in the top 10 and Super Mario Bros was #10. 
 

I also think most people have no idea what is coming out several months in advance and usually don’t make the decision to watch a film until the last few weeks before release. 
 

 

Edited December 14, 2023 by babz06