The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[TheFlatLannister]

18 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

MIGRATION 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
179	457	33659	1.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

85

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-1

 

(0.849x) of Trolls 3 $1.10M Previews

(0.364x) of Elemental $875k Previews

Comps AVG: $988k

 

Looks like $1m previews 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

MIGRATION 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-0 *Final Update

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
183	742	34408	2.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 2:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

285

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

4

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-0

 

(0.881x) of Trolls 3 $1.15M Previews

(0.456x) of Elemental $1.09M Previews

Comps AVG: $1.12M

 

Pretty good finish. Going with $1M-$1.2M

[ThomasNicole]

 

[TheFlatLannister]

18 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

ANYONE BUT YOU

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
150	279	27595	1.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

33

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-1

 

(0.938x) of Greek Wedding 3 $516k Previews

(1.353x) of Priscilla $609k Previews

Comps AVG: $563k

 

*Not counting EA sales* 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

ANYONE BUT YOU

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-0 *Final Update

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
150	362	27595	1.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 2:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

83

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-0

 

(1.014x) of Greek Wedding 3 $558k Previews

(1.153x) of Priscilla $519k Previews

Comps AVG: $539k

 

*Not counting EA sales* 

 

Going with $550k previews + whatever it makes on EA (maybe $100k)

[TheFlatLannister]

19 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

AQUAMAN AND THE LOST KINGDOM

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
200	1855	40183	4.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

252

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

5

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-1

 

(1.220x) of Blue Beetle $4.03M Previews

(0.399x) of The Flash $3.87M Previews

Comps AVG: $3.95M

 

i'm feeling O/U $4M previews right now. A pretty good recovery all things considering 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

AQUAMAN AND THE LOST KINGDOM

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-0 *Final Update

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
200	2219	40183	5.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 2:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

364

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-0

 

(1.163x) of Blue Beetle $3.88M Previews

(0.388x) of The Flash $3.77M Previews

Comps AVG: $3.83M

 

Weak finish here. Maybe not $4M previews like I was seeing yesterday. Going with $3.8M +/- $0.2M

Edited December 21, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[dallas]

1 minute ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

AQUAMAN AND THE LOST KINGDOM

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-0 *Final Update

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
200	2219	40183	5.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

364

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-0

 

(1.163x) of Blue Beetle $3.88M Previews

(0.388x) of The Flash $3.77M Previews

Comps AVG: $3.83M

 

Weak finish here. Maybe not $4M previews like I was seeing yesterday. Going with $3.8M +/- $0.2M

Weak finish here too. Probably not $4M. $3.7-3.9M sounds reasonable. 

[RamblinRed]

Just now, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

AQUAMAN AND THE LOST KINGDOM

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-0 *Final Update

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
200	2219	40183	5.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

364

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-0

 

(1.163x) of Blue Beetle $3.88M Previews

(0.388x) of The Flash $3.77M Previews

Comps AVG: $3.83M

 

Weak finish here. Maybe not $4M previews like I was seeing yesterday. Going with $3.8M +/- $0.2M

Reviews may be starting to hurt here. Currently just 39% on Rotten Tomatoes (worse among top critics).

[keysersoze123]

@TheFlatLannister is there a reason why you do final update so early and ignore walkups? I thought your process is automated. 

[M37]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Even if you compare it with Sat BO, its ATP is lower. 

 

I'm aware, but you're still not incorporating the additional step of adjusting for market share.

 

More math

Spoiler

The Pre-Sale Multiplier incorporates BOTH Market Share and ATP. Essentially its

 

PSM = [Tickets x ATP] / market share

 

If you have a relatively stable market slice - like MTC1 or Sacto - or at can at least stay within genre where its less variable, then can just ignore that part and focus solely on tickets and ATP (when necessary). But since most of the comps here are Thursday, and we know MTC1 varies by day, that changes the math. Regrouping the formula

 

PSM = Tickets x [ATP / Market share]

 

If movie B has a 20% lower ATP than movie A, but the market share for whatever sample is also down by 20%, then the overall ratio per individual ticket (PSM) would remain the same. There would no need to adjust any comps

 

For an example, from Zack's data, Barbie's opening Sunday at MTC1 sold 683K tickets, grossed $9.35M, for an ATP of only $13.69 (and fwiw, I think TCP comes up to ~$13 as the later, higher priced shows get filled with late buys and walk-ups). But yet, because other MTCs are busier on weekends than they are on Thursday, that $9M total only accounted for 21.3% of the market, down from 26% for Thursday preview.  So each MTC1 ticket sold still wound up representing $64 in overall gross (PSM), higher than Thursday at $60.7, despite the ATP dropping nearly $2 from the Thursday value. Barbie grossed $43.7M that day, not the $36M the Thursday comps would have pointed towards, before making any adjustment for a lower ATP

 

That's the same kind of outcome I expect an Xmas Day OD to have. For TCP specifically, I think it will still be MTC1 heavier despite the holiday, similar to Barbie Sun (or TLM Sat) in the lower 20% range, not 25% plus like is typical for Thursday

 

[dallas]

8 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

@TheFlatLannister is there a reason why you do final update so early and ignore walkups? I thought your process is automated. 

Not who youre asking but it's more convenient for me to track tickets sold before showtimes start because I'm not able the number of tickets sold after a screening begins.

[Bob Train]

14 minutes ago, dallas said:

Weak finish here too. Probably not $4M. $3.7-3.9M sounds reasonable. 

If it gets 3.9m...Then won't WB just round up to $4m?

[dallas]

Just now, Bob Train said:

If it gets 3.9m...Then won't WB just round up to $4m?

🤷‍♂️

[Borobudur]

45 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

MIGRATION 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-0 *Final Update

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
183	742	34408	2.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 2:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

285

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

4

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-0

 

(0.881x) of Trolls 3 $1.15M Previews

(0.456x) of Elemental $1.09M Previews

Comps AVG: $1.12M

 

Pretty good finish. Going with $1M-$1.2M

Review bump since the reviews are pretty positive? 72% with 39 reviews is the best for animation since Paw Patrol?? Hope this can bump the walk-ups higher. 

[titanic2187]

 

 

 

 

[interiorgatordecorator]

seems pretty low, is a "highest-grossing day for a movie at under a certain number of theaters" record in the cards?

maybe 21st century or post-2010

not just opening day, but day day, dont think too many movies are still making 20 million + any day while being at sub 3.2k

 

 

[TheFlatLannister]

51 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

@TheFlatLannister is there a reason why you do final update so early and ignore walkups? I thought your process is automated. 

I have to manually set the parameters for scraper for each run and I don't have time during the day. It would be nice to track hourly walk-ups😅

 

Also this:

42 minutes ago, dallas said:

Not who youre asking but it's more convenient for me to track tickets sold before showtimes start because I'm not able the number of tickets sold after a screening begins.

Edited December 21, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[TheFlatLannister]

Getting back to AquaMan...It was running hot locally similar to what @Porthos was seeing, but reviews seriously crippled sales here (completely killed the tiny momentum it had) 

 

T-0 update

Aquaman: 364 seats sold 

The Marvels: 700 seats sold 

Blue Beetle: 388 seats sold

Flash: 1066 seats sold 

[HummingLemon496]

27 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Getting back to AquaMan...It was running hot locally similar to what @Porthos was seeing, but reviews seriously crippled sales here (completely killed the tiny momentum it had) 

 

T-0 update

Aquaman: 364 seats sold 

The Marvels: 700 seats sold 

Blue Beetle: 388 seats sold

Flash: 1066 seats sold 

So wouldn't these current comps point to like 3.3-3.4 ish in previews?

 

Edit: Nevermind these are just tickets sold specifically on T-0 not in total

Edited December 21, 2023 by HummingLemon496

[M37]

46 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

seems pretty low, is a "highest-grossing day for a movie at under a certain number of theaters" record in the cards?

maybe 21st century or post-2010

not just opening day, but day day, dont think too many movies are still making 20 million + any day while being at sub 3.2k

 

 

There are some films that “don’t play well” in some markets/locations, that tend to keep the initial location count down (often with expansions later), especially when a lot of films are being released 

 

You get the hard Rs (Deadpool, 50 Shades as the most prominent examples), as well as films that are perceived as “niche”, attracting a teen, Black or religious audience (and often skewing towards women too)

 

Some recent examples (you’ll have to dig up previews since most are OD and find whatever daily grossing line you’re trying to draw)

 

Straight Outta Compton (2757)

Les Miserables (2808)

Magic Mike (2930)

Passion of the Christ (3034)

Jackass 3D (3081)
300 (3103)

Fault in Our Stars (3173)

Edited December 21, 2023 by M37

[dallas]

23 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Getting back to AquaMan...It was running hot locally similar to what @Porthos was seeing, but reviews seriously crippled sales here (completely killed the tiny momentum it had) 

 

T-0 update

Aquaman: 364 seats sold 

The Marvels: 700 seats sold 

Blue Beetle: 388 seats sold

Flash: 1066 seats sold 

Those reviews completely shattered the thin ice Aquaman was already on. Unfortunate. 

[interiorgatordecorator]

10 minutes ago, M37 said:

There are some films that “don’t play well” in some markets/locations, that tend to keep the initial location count down (often with expansions later), especially when a lot of films are being released 

 

You get the hard Rs (Deadpool, 50 Shades as the most prominent examples), as well as films that are perceived as “niche”, attracting a teen, Black or religious audience (and often skewing towards women too)

 

Some recent examples (you’ll have to dig up previews since most are OD and find whatever daily grossing line you’re trying to draw)

 

Straight Outta Compton (2757)

Les Miserables (2808)

Magic Mike (2930)

Passion of the Christ (3034)

Jackass 3D (3081)
300 (3103)

Fault in Our Stars (3173)

 

thanks