The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Porthos]

Gonna drop an Xmas Eve present for one and all here...

 

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┻┳| •.•)    Mean Girls is still outselling
┳┻|⊂ﾉ   Wonka in Sacramento as of T-19 
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---

 

Mean Girls (2024) = 1.17514x Wonka at T-19 (4.11m)

 

Is Wonka a particularly good comp?  Hell if I know!  I'm just glad to find a musical-to-musical comp that both had exactly 30 days of pre-sales!

 

(ftr EA is still taking the lion's share of sales at 110/208 [52.88% of all tickets sold] and is most of the daily sales pace)

[Porthos]

On 12/23/2023 at 1:27 AM, Porthos said:

 

FWIW, constraints are showing up in Sacramento even worse than it did for Barbie.  147 showtimes scheduled at the moment while Barbie at T-3 had 180 (which would eventually rise to 274 - and I see no way in hell TCP is gonna come close to that).  With so many new openers I have a hard time seeing enough showtimes for TCP, even with 9am showtimes being posted, which are filling up PDQ.

Did a quick-ish look and it's at about 86% of Barbie's T-3 (5682/6573) with nearly 33% of all seats sold (5682/17233) [Barbie at T-3 was at 25% seats sold].

 

What the hell; let's drop a second one:

 

TCP Xmas Day Sacto Sales Report 

6346/17638 (35.98% sold) [+664 tickets] 151 showings

 

0.83325x Barbie at T-2 [18.58m UNADJ]

1.50379x FNAF at T-2   [15.49m UNADJ]

3.09410x MI7 TUE ONLY at T-2 [21.66m]

 

Four more showtimes got squeezed in locally for an additional 405 seats, but it still can't keep up pace with Barbie's T-2 growth.  

 

Again, no really once again I *really* mean this, this is not a forecast/comp.  Not even a stealth forecast/comp.  I'm simply noting that there just isn't the showtime growth here.

[Porthos]

Just now, Porthos said:

 

What the hell; let's drop a second one:

 

TCP Xmas Day Sacto Sales Report 

6346/17638 (35.98% sold) [+664 tickets] 151 showings

 

0.83325x Barbie at T-2 [18.58m UNADJ]

1.50379x FNAF at T-2   [15.49m UNADJ]

3.09410x MI7 TUE ONLY at T-2 [21.66m]

 

Four more showtimes got squeezed in locally for an additional 405 seats, but it still can't keep up pace with Barbie's T-2 growth.  

 

Again, no really once again I *really* mean this, this is not a forecast/comp.  Not even a stealth forecast/comp.  I'm simply noting that there just isn't the showtime growth here.

 

Making this a separate post because no matter how many times I say it, I know the inclination is to kinda look at it as a stealth comp/forecast, but I did have some more observations about TCP's sales locally that I wanted to muse over.

 

As I look, the final TUE ONLY total for MI7 was 4986 tickets sold.  If we use that as a sorta, kinda benchmark for TCP, we'd be looking for something like 14.25k seats sold for 20m, locally. 

 

That'll... That would be tough.  Partial Discount Tuesday might be too much of a thumb on the scale in the other direction though.  But even if I adjust the PSM by 10% or so, still be looking at 12.82k tickets sold. 

 

Probably would want 1] about 2500 more seats made available (to bring it to around 20k total in the region) and then get that mooted NWH level of sales I mentioned last night.  Then it'd "only" need 64% of 20k.

 

Is that doable?  MAYBE!  Is it more likely that Sacto's sales capacity is so constrained as to make it less than useful?  MUCH MORE LIKELY!  Are there better comps I could be pulling?  Sure, but I ain't gonna look for 'em!

 

Regardless, I'm pulling for TCP to hit 20m.  Just not entirely sure it's gonna have the seats to get it.

[Porthos]

6 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

At $18.36M

 

2 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

$19.4M using my T-2 numbers, dare I say we’re starting to get at a tighter range 👀

 

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Regardless, I'm pulling for TCP to hit 20m.  Just not entirely sure it's gonna have the seats to get it.

 

...

 

...

 

...

 

I just realized something.

 

TCP is totally gonna wind up at 17.5m, isn't it? 

[M37]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

TCP is totally gonna wind up at 17.5m, isn't it?

Ending the year the way it began.

 

Also a reminder that not a single preview (or non-preview OD) has landed between $10.5M (Oppy, Mermaid, FNAF) and $17M (Avatar 2, AMWQ, GOTG3, Spider-Verse) since Venom 2 (and even then at $11.6M, there's nothing else in that gap up to $17M, and also nothing above $17.5M until Batman and Barbie both around $22M)

 

On 12/23/2023 at 12:50 AM, keysersoze123 said:

Color Purple - 224790/565564 2802743.42 4018 shows

As this will likely be the last MTC1 update, I looked at other T-3 comps. Only two - without adjusting for ATP or market share/PSM - would project under $20M ... AMWQ and NWH

(excluding ERAS for obvious reasons)

 

I do think that kind of final limited growth rate is what we should expect here, primarily because of capacity limitations. Most films at least double ticket sales from T-3 to T-F, with only the big CBMs going below +100%. There just aren't the same number of available seats to be sold, even if demand still exists

 

Interestingly enough, the straight NWH comp (0.34x), which was already at 52% sold across MTC1 (TCP is at 40%), would project to ... $17M

 

Spoiler

There's probably some correlation & corresponding formula with these edge cases like NWH, MoM, TCP and maybe even ERAS, where remaining capacity under a threshold becomes a dampening factor on growth rate, but that's perhaps a project for another time

[charlie Jatinder]

2 minutes ago, M37 said:

Interestingly enough, the straight NWH comp (0.34x), which was already at 52% sold across MTC1 (TCP is at 40%), would project to ... $17M

Gross comp is $14.5M

[M37]

21 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Gross comp is $14.5M

Yeah that sounds about right, but MTC1 already has a lower market share on weekends than Thursday previews, and Xmas day - where even the smallest chains are busy - should be even lower*. That should mostly offset the reduction in ATP/raw gross when trying to project overall numbers from this sample. That’s why I keep ending up in higher teens range 

 

*in general, TCP might be an exception, though regional/market trackers are mostly seeing similar comp values. Frankly anything from $16-$20M+ wouldn’t surprise me given that added layer of uncertainty 

[keysersoze123]

Color Purple MTC1 previews(T-2) - 249677/576110 3104151.29 4097 shows

 

MTC2 Previews(This is probably not full data and as of yesterday morning) - 134096/363312 1386839.39 2952 shows 

 

I am expecting 290K by the time shows start. Cannot see it finish below 375K and may be even 400K. I wont able to track it as I am out starting today till thursday. I am going to predict 21m+ Monday.

[ChipDerby]

$20 mil.

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

Yeah that sounds about right, but MTC1 already has a lower market share on weekends than Thursday previews, and Xmas day - where even the smallest chains are busy - should be even lower*. That should mostly offset the reduction in ATP/raw gross when trying to project overall numbers from this sample. That’s why I keep ending up in higher teens range 

 

*in general, TCP might be an exception, though regional/market trackers are mostly seeing similar comp values. Frankly anything from $16-$20M+ wouldn’t surprise me given that added layer of uncertainty 

BUT MTC 1 will be overindexing BY A LOT for TCP. 

[rehpyc]

2 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

BUT MTC 1 will be overindexing BY A LOT for TCP. 

I’m looking at, capacity constraints aside, T-0 to be 2.25x+ T-3, which should keep the 20M alive on this end.

[titanic2187]

On 12/22/2023 at 11:37 AM, MovieMan89 said:

Thats not even close to being true. Illumination marketing is always ferocious and omnipresent. This was lower key than Disney’s Strange World campaign, an infamous “we don’t care” one from this decade. Or compare it to Wish marketing for example, which was huge and much more in line with what Illumination would typically do. 
 

Like I’ve said, they clearly spent this year’s marketing budget on Mario. They did also shaft Pets 2 in marketing, so I guess this has happened once before. But a pretty different case when we were talking about sequel to one of the biggest original animated movies of all time (strange in its own right though).

One part I have to say for Migration, the name isn't something a marketing team should propose. Migration just sound so serious and unfunny, especially given that immigrant issue has been at the center of politics in recent years. I would rather the movie has some lighter tone name like "Fly Away" or "Finding Jamiaca" or just "Duck" 

[TheFlatLannister]

22 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

The Color Purple

 

Christmas 

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
229	8519	45008	18.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

633

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

2

 

COMPS

T-2

 

Comps with Thursday-Tuesday previews *Not good comps because Thursday/Tuesday previews compared to full day Holiday of Box office* 

(4.039x) of Mi7 $28.28M 

(1.824x) of TLM $18.78M 

(0.958x) of Barbie $20.20M 

Comps AVG: $22.42M

 

I realized i made a mistake yesterday the actual number of seats sold was: 7886

 

looks like $20M+ to me 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

The Color Purple

 

Christmas 

 

T-1 *Final Update 

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
232	9705	45513	21.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

1186

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

3

 

SELLOUTS

2

 

COMPS

T-1

 

Comps with Thursday-Tuesday previews *Not good comps because Thursday/Tuesday previews compared to full day Holiday of Box office* 

(1.779x) of FNAF $18.32M 

(1.820x) of TLM $18.75M 

(0.916x) of Barbie $19.33M 

Comps AVG: $18.80M

 

by 9am tomorrow presales should be around ~10k

 

Put me down for $18M OD +/- $1M

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

The Color Purple

 

Christmas 

 

T-1 *Final Update 

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
232	9705	45513	21.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

1186

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

3

 

SELLOUTS

2

 

COMPS

T-1

 

Comps with Thursday-Tuesday previews *Not good comps because Thursday/Tuesday previews compared to full day Holiday of Box office* 

(1.779x) of FNAF $18.32M 

(1.820x) of TLM $18.75M 

(0.916x) of Barbie $19.33M 

Comps AVG: $18.80M

 

by 9am tomorrow presales should be around ~10k

 

Put me down for $18M OD +/- $1M

Some Christmas day numbers to go along with this:

 

2533 seats sold - Wonka 

2096 seats sold - Aquaman

970 seats sold - Migration 

 

Wonka is beating Aquaman here.

[crazymoviekid]

On 12/23/2023 at 11:25 AM, crazymoviekid said:

 

2 Local NJ Theaters Christmas Day T-1:

 

The Color Purple - 975 (15)
Wonka - 407 (13)
AQM 2 - 65 (10)
Ferrari - 212 (9)
Migration - 93 (12)
The Iron Claw - 45 (9)
Poor Things - 58 (8)
Boys in the Boat - 227 (9)
Anyone But You -  16 (10)

 

Color Purple is almost at 1,000 sales. Everything is still growing, but Aquaman and Anyone But You are the ones that are feeling left behind.

 

FINAL 2 Local NJ Theaters Christmas Day T-0:

 

The Color Purple - 1358 (17)
Wonka - 616 (13)
AQM 2 - 166 (10)
Ferrari - 331 (9)
Migration - 242 (12)
The Iron Claw - 126 (9)
Poor Things - 125 (8)
Boys in the Boat - 304 (9)
Anyone But You -  49 (9)

 

Color Purple broke 1,000 sales AND added more morning showtimes.  Everything had good last minute surges, especially Aquaman, but can't save it from drowning. Anyone But You is still the dud left behind.

[Relevation]

14 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Color Purple MTC1 previews(T-1) - 249677/576110 3104151.29 4097 shows

 

MTC2 Previews(This is probably not full data and as of yesterday morning) - 134096/363312 1386839.39 2952 shows 

 

I am expecting 290K by the time shows start. Cannot see it finish below 375K and may be even 400K. I wont able to track it as I am out starting today till thursday. I am going to predict 21m+ Monday.

Pulling out the PAW Patrol comp one last time

 

MTC1 Friday(T-1)

Paw Patrol 2 - 52210/465001 652465.64 3134 shows 

 

Finished slightly better than where it was going 2 days ago with a final comp of 4.782x PAW Patrol or a MON for TCP of $32.65M with a big asterisk as Color Purple is probably skewing waaaaay more towards MTC-1 than the normal family film.

 

Since I can actually adjust for PSM and it had a holiday effect, also decided to yank out the mid-day Sunday numbers at MTC-1 for Mario 

 

Mario MTC1 Sun - 218066/1645339 3047516.12 9922 shows
 

This is actually ahead which is extremely impressive given Mario had a $34.57M SUN, and also Mario had a pretty low PSM at MTC-1 on Easter Sunday specifically, and if I pull up the PSM chart and commentary @M37 did last week...

 

Title	Day	PSM ($/T)	Tix	BO$
Wonka	Sat	$71.0	197,433	$14.03
Mario	(Good) Fri	$69.3	790,521	$54.80
Mario	Sat	$66.8	853,769	$56.99
GOTG3	Sun	$66.5	472,658	$31.43
Barbie	Sun	$64.0	682,893	$43.71
AMWQ	Sun	$63.7	404,697	$25.77
Mario	Wed	$63.7	498,000	$31.70
Mermaid	Sat	$63.6	473,426	$30.12
Mario	(East) Sun	$62.4	554,006	$34.57
Marvels	Sat	$57.9	263,523	$15.26
Oppy	Sun	$57.3	404,822	$23.19

 

None are ideal, but two in particular I would have had my eye on without knowing any numbers - Barbie Sun and Mermaid Sat - are nearly identical. There's also solid clustering overall, with the high and low outliers explainable by nature of respective films, so that's good enough for me to use that ~$64/tix as the baseline, though it may not work out perfectly due the nuance of Xmas day itself or this film in particular, should be in play.

 

Using $63.5-64 PSM as the working number here as per the Mermaid and Barbie comps, that's actually a 17-26% bump on Mario's PSM for Easter Sunday, so the T-1ish comps for TCP against Mario SUN would be $39.579M unadjusted and an insane $46.307-49.870M adjusted.

 

Now, that just sounds wrong on almost every level and the crux of the issue in my opinion is that TCP will not have the borderline superhuman walkups that Mario was able to attain, especially not to the extent where it would be pushing a $40M+ OD.

 

If I instead used Key's 375K-400K projected finish and comped that to Mario SUN's finish of 554K, I get a much more reasonable sounding $23.40-24.96M unadjusted and $27.38-31.45M adjusted. That still sounds really high, but at least the unadjusted comp is "within realistic probability" high rather than the wacky fantasy scenario those pre-walkup $40M+ comps suggested.

 

Aaaand if I just took the $63.5-64 PSM and directly multiplied it by that projected 375-400K finish, then you're talking an OD of $23.81-25.60M which is pretty close to my unadjusted Mario SUN comp.

 

Those two comps being in the same place makes me feel relatively comfortable projecting a roughly $23-25M opening day for The Color Purple (now of course, maybe I'm using comps which are too high or I'm extrapolating too much off an MTC that is going to overindex here. ORRRR maybe I should put more stock in those higher $27M+ comps and I'm just not due to expectation management) which would be an absolutely euphoric result for something I wasn't even confident would make $20M total DOM at the start of the year. $100M+ opening week and $200M+ total finish seems on the horizon.

 

[vafrow]

22 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

The Color Purple, T-2, Western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Theatres: 3 (of 5)

Total Sales: 73

New Sales since last update: 21

Growth: 40%

Showtimes: 19

Radius 19km

 

Sales are slowing down. And 15 of the 21 new sales came from those three small VIP showings that can't grow much more. The bigger auditoriums just aren't selling yet.

 

Taking some peaks at the wider radius shows it performing similarly elsewhere in rhe region. I think it's just not catching the same way up here yet.

 

The Color Purple, T-1, Western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Theatres: 3 (of 5)

Total Sales: 103

New Sales since last update: 30

Growth: 41%

Showtimes: 19

Radius 19km

 

Same story, with the smaller VIP theatres generating the bulk of the growth, but now also leaving little capacity for walk ups.

 

I did a quick check on sales for other films in the busiest of the the three theatre's in my sample, and TCP is behind not only things like Aquaman, Migration, Wonka and Dunki, but also on par with Ferrari and Boy and the Heron give or take.

 

I would suggest that for any comps people are using, unless it's something that had a similar underperformance in Canada, that you may want to round down on the forecasts.

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, Relevation said:

Using $63.5-64 PSM as the working number here as per the Mermaid and Barbie comps, that's actually a 17-26% bump on Mario's PSM for Easter Sunday, so the T-1ish comps for TCP against Mario SUN would be $39.579M unadjusted and an insane $46.307-49.870M adjusted.

 

Now, that just sounds wrong on almost every level and the crux of the issue in my opinion is that TCP will not have the borderline superhuman walkups that Mario was able to attain, especially not to the extent where it would be pushing a $40M+ OD.

 

Without commenting on anything else, the reason why TCP won't have the "borderline superhuman walkups" that SMB had is... there LITERALLY isn't the capacity for them. 

 

I mean...

 

1,645,339 seats 9922 shows 

   576,110 seats  4097 shows

 

That's nearly a three times difference in seats (2.86x) and nearly 2.5x as many showtimes (2.42x)!

 

Plus, as @M37 has mentioned, deadweight is a thing.  As is folks not showing up as much to 10pm or 11pm+ showings.

 

As for everything else?  Well, we'll know soon enough. 🙂   But did kinda want to point out that SMB and TCP are opening in *VERY DIFFERENT WAYS*.

[rehpyc]

Yeah.. people need to not get ahead of themselves. It’s been stated many of times by several that capacity constraints will be the crux here. MTCs slept on how strong things were coming in, even early on, and schedules became relatively locked in from change. There’s simply a huge difference in show counts between TCP and any large comp used. Many shows have been added over the last few days, but it pales in comparison.

 

Should be interesting to see how it plays out. Nevertheless, per usual, BOT saw the wave coming, so great job to all the trackers (and those that add additional color to the numbers). Merry Christmas!

[PrinceRico]

10:15am showing of TCP is packed. This will be fun day for boxoffice lovers.