The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[dallas]

Bob Marley: One Love

 

Wednesday Opening

 

T-10

103 tickets sold (+19)

 

Comps:

(0.126x) of The Color Purple - $2.27 Million

 

Doing quite well actually. Or at least better than expected. Dont think TCP is the greatest comp in the world but it's the only one I got. 

[dallas]

Madame Web

 

Wednesday Opening

 

T-10

74 tickets sold (+31)

 

Comps:

(2.056x) of Mean Girls - $6.68 Million

(0.548x) of Aquaman 2 - $2.47 Million

(5.286x) of Argylle - $8.99 Million

(0.090x) of The Color Purple - $1.62 Million

COMPS AVG - $4.94 Million

 

Really messed around with the comps here but overall, its looking pretty solid. Though I imagined it would considering its opening on Valentine's Day. We'll see where WOM takes this.

[abracadabra1998]

On 2/1/2024 at 9:02 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Lisa Frankenstein (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	36	22	52	5021	1.04

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		2	0	3.85
MTC1:		19	6	36.54
Marcus:		2	0	3.85
Alamo:		13	2	25
Other chains:		18	14	34.62

 

Some funky business going on in one of the Emagine theaters I track, all 14 new tickets in the"other" column come from there, and they're mostly single tickets from one screening. Seems legit for now but I'll keep an eye on it.

 

Comps:

0.85x Thanksgiving: $850k

0.22x Haunted Mansion: $670k

0.35x Exorcist Believer: $1 Million

 

Average: $840k

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Lisa Frankenstein (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	36	23	75	5021	1.49

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		4	2	5.33
MTC1:		28	9	37.33
Marcus:		4	2	5.33
Alamo:		19	6	25.33
Other chains:		24	6	32

 

Comps:

0.8x Thanksgiving: $800k

0.24x Haunted Mansion: $750k

0.38x Exorcist Believer: $1.1 Million

1.25x Last Voyage of Demeter: $940k

0.69x Talk To Me: $865k

 

Average: $890k

 

Tracking daily from now on.

[abracadabra1998]

On 2/1/2024 at 8:56 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Dune Part 2 (T-28):

Day: T-28, T-24	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 17 theaters	76	222	1115	14835	7.52
Sunday Feb 25 EA: 4 theaters	4	27	575	1082	53.14
TOTALS:	80	249	1690	15917	10.62

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		1021	195	91.57
MTC1:		604	95	54.17
Marcus:		139	32	12.47
Alamo:		189	32	16.95
Other chains:		183	63	16.41

(Only Thursday preview sales accounted for in chart)

 

Thursday Comp:

1.2x Oppy: $12.58 Million*

 

*Like-for-like comp which only includes 12 theaters, no Marcus or Alamo (full comp at T-25)

 

EA Comp:

0.87x Barbie EA: $960k

 

Still kicking it!

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Dune Part 2 (T-25):

Day: T-25, T-21	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 17 theaters	76	162	1277	14835	8.61
Sunday Feb 25 EA: 4 theaters	4	36	611	1082	56.47
TOTALS:	80	198	1888	15917	11.86

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		1163	142	91.07
MTC1:		706	102	55.29
Marcus:		153	14	11.98
Alamo:		208	19	16.29
Other chains:		210	27	16.44

(Only Thursday preview sales accounted for in chart)

 

Comps (Thursday only):

1.53x Oppy: $16.1 Million

1.88x The Marvels: $12.38 Million

 

Comps (w/ EA):

2.26x Oppy: $23.77 Million

2.77x The Marvels: $18.3 Million

 

Comps (average EA and THU):

1.9x Oppy: $19.94 Million

2.32x The Marvels: $15.34 Million

 

I am finally comparing all the theaters in my sample, thus the Oppy jump. This is the most pre-sale heavy thing I have tracked yet at T-25, so I am emphasizing @Porthos's point. Do not take comps seriously!

 

[leoh]

2 hours ago, dallas said:

Madame Web

 

Wednesday Opening

 

T-10

74 tickets sold (+31)

 

Comps:

(2.056x) of Mean Girls - $6.68 Million

(0.548x) of Aquaman 2 - $2.47 Million

(5.286x) of Argylle - $8.99 Million

(0.090x) of The Color Purple - $1.62 Million

COMPS AVG - $4.94 Million

 

Really messed around with the comps here but overall, its looking pretty solid. Though I imagined it would considering its opening on Valentine's Day. We'll see where WOM takes this.

This matches the track for Madame Web that  @TheFlatLannister shared with us earlier today and it is also similar to AMC NY pre sales pace. Pace has been pretty solid/decent. And I agree with you, for the OW the WoM will be really important to determine how far it can go.

 

About Dune, in AMC NY theaters it had a noticeable increase in pre-sales for Dolby Cinema last week.

Edited February 5 by leoh

[filmlover]

Don't know if this has been mentioned but showtimes (not on sale yet) are starting to appear for Kung Fu Panda 4, starts at 2:00 that Thursday.

[Eric Quinn]

Quorum Updates

Bob Marley: One Love T-9: 52.15%

Madame Web T-9: 44.98%

Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba - To the Hashira Training T-18: 23.26%

Ordinary Angels T-18: 26.8%

Immaculate T-46: 23.01%

Tarot T-95: 15.26%

Back to Black T-102: 23.85%

Longlegs T-158: 15.42%

 

Lisa Frankenstein T-4: 35.06% Awareness

Final Awareness: 38% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 23% chance of 10M

 

Imaginary T-32: 28.55% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 55% chance of 10M, 18% chance of 20M

Horror Awareness: 64% chance of 10M, 29% chance of 20M

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Dune: Part Two - Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-26 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	171	23152	24729	1577	6.38%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

43

 

T-26 Comps         UNIFORMLY TERRIBLE EDITION - DON'T TAKE SERIOUSLY AT ALL!!

	%		Sold T-26	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	96.75		41	1630		0/171	22154/23784	6.85%		2915	54.10%		17.41m
BP2	28.68		102	5498		1/294	31521/37019	14.85%		16800	9.39%		8.03m
GOTG3	59.62		88	2645		0/206	27026/29671	8.91%		10750	14.67%		10.43m
Fast X	218.12		8	723		0/182	26977/27700	2.61%		4122	38.26%		16.36m
Indy 5	202.18		27	780		0/124	18747/19527	3.99%		4767	33.08%		14.56m
Oppy	211.11		-1	747		0/53	7503/8250	9.05%		10750	14.67%		22.17m
AM3	44.70		107	3528		0/235	29016/32544	10.84%		10475	15.05%		7.82m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Dune: Part Two's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     428/8153   [5.25% sold]
Matinee:    33/2762  [1.19% | 2.09% of all tickets sold]
———    
Sun:    606/814     [74.45% sold] [+8 tickets]
Thr:    971/23915  [4.06% sold] [+35 tickets]
PLF:    1345/9813  [13.71% | 85.29% of all tickets sold]

 

Dune: Part Two - Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-25 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	171	23103	24729	1626	6.58%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

49

 

T-25 Comps         UNIFORMLY TERRIBLE EDITION - DON'T TAKE SERIOUSLY AT ALL!!!

	%		Sold T-25	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	96.21		60	1690		0/171	22094/23784	7.11%		2915	55.78%		17.32m
BP2	28.94		121	5619		1/294	31400/37019	15.18%		16800	9.68%		8.10m
GOTG3	60.49		43	2688		0/206	26983/29671	9.06%		10750	15.13%		10.59m
Fast X	217.96		23	746		0/182	26954/27700	2.69%		4122	39.45%		16.35m
Indy 5	205.30		12	792		0/124	18735/19527	4.06%		4767	34.11%		14.78m
Oppy	213.95		13	760		0/53	7490/8250	9.21%		10750	15.13%		22.46m
AM3	44.86		97	3625		0/235	28901/32526	11.14%		10475	15.52%		7.85m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Dune: Part Two's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:      437/8153  [5.36% sold]
Matinee:    34/2762  [1.23% | 2.09% of all tickets sold]
———    
Sun:         611/814  [75.06% sold] [+5 tickets]
Thr:    1015/23915  [4.24% sold] [+44 tickets]
PLF:     1387/9813  [14.13% | 85.30% of all tickets sold]

[JustLurking]

10 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

DUNE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-25

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
554	3715	104695	3.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

76

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

1560

*14 seats sold

 

COMPS

T-25

 

(1.456x) of Oppenheimer $15.29M 

(0.960x) of Indy 5 $6.91M 

(2.287x) of Wonka $8.00M 

(2.161x) of Aquaman 2 $9.72M 

 

Comps AVG: $9.98M

 

Pace is behaving more like a CBM than say Wonka or Oppy. The floor is already pretty high though 

> More like a CBM than Oppy

> Oppy comp is basically unchanged, has remained at roughly the exact same range for the past week

 

🤔

 

if anything it's actually looking like oppy has been a decently stable comp so far to me (which is also probably gonna match up well in ATP with PLF skew),  though I'm guessing it'll be hard for Dune to keep up with it when Barbenheimer phenom starts to really get going for oppy

[vafrow]

On 2/4/2024 at 5:36 AM, vafrow said:

 

Dune Part 2, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-26 Thursday previews and T-22 EA shows

 

Previews

Total Sales: 241

New Sales: 12

Growth: 5.2%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 18

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 13.4

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 5/2

Early Evening: 186/9

Late Evening: 50/7

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 47/7

IMAX: 141/4

VIP: 49/5

4dx: 4/2

 

EA shows

 

Tickets sold: 346

Showtimes/Theatres: 2

Increase: 6

Growth: 1.8%

 

Not particularly strong, but weekend updates this far out don't carry much in the way of expectations.

 

Dune Part 2, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-25 Thursday previews and T-21 EA shows

 

Previews

Total Sales: 253

New Sales: 12

Growth: 5.0%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 18

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 14.1

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 7/2

Early Evening: 192/9

Late Evening: 54/7

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 49/7

IMAX: 148/4

VIP: 50/5

4dx: 6/2

 

EA shows

 

Tickets sold: 357

Showtimes/Theatres: 2

Increase: 11

Growth: 3.2%

 

Fairly uneventful day. I don't see much really changing in trajectory until at least after the Superbowl.

[vafrow]

On 2/4/2024 at 5:46 AM, vafrow said:

 

Madame Web, western GTA (southern Ontario), Opening Day, T-11

 

Previews

Total Sales: 64

New Sales: 5

Growth: 8.5%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 13

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 4.9

Thursday Sales: 24

Friday Sales: 30

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 2/1

Late Afternoon: 7/2

Early Evening: 40/6

Late Evening: 15/4

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 26/5

IMAX: 34/7

VIP: 4/1

 

Comps

1.684x Aquaman 2 for $7.8M

0.485x HG:BoSS for $2.9M

0.176x of The Marvels for $1.2M

Avg: $3.8M

 

After saying that growth has averaged really high, it's now dropped to under 10% today, and pushed it's comps down. Weekend updates tend to be lower, but still, not great. As mentioned in another post yesterday, this is the only film available for sale for Valentine's Day, which might be giving it a boost. It loses that on Tuesday when the next week showtimes go up, and could take a hit.

 

Madame Web, western GTA (southern Ontario), Opening Day, T-10

 

Previews

Total Sales: 81

New Sales: 17

Growth: 27%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 13

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 6.2

Thursday Sales: 34

Friday Sales: 35

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 2/1

Late Afternoon: 7/2

Early Evening: 53/6

Late Evening: 19/4

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 42/5

IMAX: 35/7

VIP: 4/1

 

T-13 Comps

1.653x Aquaman 2 for $7.4M

0.547x HG:BoSS for $3.1M

0.215x of The Marvels for $1.4M

Avg: $4.0M

 

A good bounceback day, with a growth at 27%. It is worth highlighting on comps that due to the Wednesday opening vs a Thursday preview, days of the week aren't lining up for comps, so, it's probably leading to more distortion on that front. Nothing too big, but worth noting.

 

 

Edited February 5 by vafrow

[M37]

4 hours ago, JustLurking said:

> More like a CBM than Oppy

> Oppy comp is basically unchanged, has remained at roughly the exact same range for the past week

 

🤔

 

if anything it's actually looking like oppy has been a decently stable comp so far to me (which is also probably gonna match up well in ATP with PLF skew),  though I'm guessing it'll be hard for Dune to keep up with it when Barbenheimer phenom starts to really get going for oppy

To put some numbers to this, growth rates in total sales (in multi terms) of some high profile films for MTC1 from T-14

 

CBM: Batman (Th) 2.95x, GOTG3 2.90x (the rest of the big ones are much closer to 2x, except Flash which was a little weird)

Mid-Range: MI7 3.66x, TGM 3.54x, Avatar 2 3.43x, Indy 5 3.45x

High-Level: Oppy 3.89x, JWD 4.13x, ATSV 4.40x

 

Oppy had a very high and sustained growth curve over its T-28 to T-7 period (behind only Barbie and similar to Mermaid with a much later sales start), and IMO probably pushes up over that 4x threshold if not limited by capacity at the end. I expect Dune to fall more into that mid-range ~3.5x level, better than even the best late finish CBMs, but consistently losing ground to Oppy comp over the next 2-3 weeks

[Tinalera]

14 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

I've been sticking with a sample of 5, which includes a few different types of theatres: big 24 screen multiplex, a couple of smaller ones focusing on VIP recliners and just an older mid size. I've got two IMAX in my sample as well.

 

I find I like to do daily counts or close to it, so, I really can't afford to bite off more than I can chew, and want to avoid tracking more than two films at a given time. Dune starting early was a bit annoying, but there's not much else on the horizon, so it should be manageable.

 These days I cant get daily counts as much as I used to, just too much going on in my real world. And yes it is FAR tto easy to fall into the "Hey im doing good with this one film, I can tackle a couple more....." until it gets nutty lol. Keeping it simple is the best way to do it I agree!

[JustLurking]

25 minutes ago, M37 said:

To put some numbers to this, growth rates in total sales (in multi terms) of some high profile films for MTC1 from T-14

 

CBM: Batman (Th) 2.95x, GOTG3 2.90x (the rest of the big ones are much closer to 2x, except Flash which was a little weird)

Mid-Range: MI7 3.66x, TGM 3.54x, Avatar 2 3.43x, Indy 5 3.45x

High-Level: Oppy 3.89x, JWD 4.13x, ATSV 4.40x

 

Oppy had a very high and sustained growth curve over its T-28 to T-7 period (behind only Barbie and similar to Mermaid with a much later sales start), and IMO probably pushes up over that 4x threshold if not limited by capacity at the end. I expect Dune to fall more into that mid-range ~3.5x level, better than even the best late finish CBMs, but consistently losing ground to Oppy comp over the next 2-3 weeks

yeah like I said, don't expect Dune to keep up with Oppy going forward. I was just puzzled at the statement that "it has been pacing more like a CBM than oppy" when, well, by his own numbers it has been pacing very much similarly 😛

[TheFlatLannister]

15 hours ago, leoh said:

 When you say Dune pre sales “pace is behaving more like a CBM” you mean Dune might be very front loaded, right? 

 

@Shawn Robbins mentioned this as a possible risky factor for Dune a couple of days ago. 

 

Here in AMC NY theaters what I have noticed since Tuesday was a decent increase in sales for Dolby Cinema. But still in non-PLFs formats things are not good for Dune.

 

Idk perhaps Duna marketing focusing too much on “you have to watch it in IMAX” may be leading people into “if I can’t watch it in IMAX, I am not watching it at all”… and IMAX theaters are packed rn

Yes, from previews pace I would say front loaded is pretty possible. Shawn, M37, and Legion have already baked this fact into their possible IM for the weekend 

[leoh]

59 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Yes, from previews pace I would say front loaded is pretty possible. Shawn, M37, and Legion have already baked this fact into their possible IM for the weekend 

Yeah this makes sense, probably because it has a pretty big fanbase, just like CBM sequels. Then eventually pre sales pace tends to be similar.

Edited February 5 by leoh

[Krissykins]

Positive reviews certainly wouldn’t hurt Lisa Frankenstein, do we know when the embargo lifts for it? 

[M37]

Just going to plant a quick flag ....

 

All-in-all, I expect Dune II to be a relatively boring track. There will probably be some time in the middle where daily sales are solid, comps drift up, and some people will start to dream of bigger numbers with an accelerated high-pace finish ... but IMO its more likely it winds up a more tepid final few days (relatively speaking) and we'll circle back in the same range everyone has it at now.  Like Avatar 2, but at half the total volume (for Thursday, +EA)

[vafrow]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

Just going to plant a quick flag ....

 

All-in-all, I expect Dune II to be a relatively boring track. There will probably be some time in the middle where daily sales are solid, comps drift up, and some people will start to dream of bigger numbers with an accelerated high-pace finish ... but IMO its more likely it winds up a more tepid final few days (relatively speaking) and we'll circle back in the same range everyone has it at now.  Like Avatar 2, but at half the total volume (for Thursday, +EA)

 

If someone in the studio was reading this and wanted to figure out how to right the ship, it might make them put out a decision like this:

 

 

I'm not quite sure on this strategy though. Early word of mouth can help, but that's a lot of time for any good press cycles to get lost. This is peak awards season, and that can serve to drown out a lot of chatter. But, only WB knows what they have in the can. Maybe they're highly confident.

 

[keysersoze123]

If its a rave, then it will help big time for sure. Anything less does not matter. Al ready the presales are strong. This will help finish strong.