The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[dallas]

I'm not predicting Dune 2's run to follow FNAF's, I was only responding to the statement that fan driven movies can't open to $80M by saying it was untrue as we literally just saw FNAF do exactly that. 

[Tinalera]

18 hours ago, Wotad said:

 

That doesn't seem possible in this scenario where Dune 2 is nearly doubling the 1sts weekend gross

Ah okay, I havent been able to follow the numbers too much recently-nevermind, everyone carry on

[misterpepp]

Monkey Man tix on sale March 11

[charlie Jatinder]

$1.6-1.65M pre-sales for Dune 2 shows today in US. Canada another $175K+. Total $1.75-1.8M, final shall be close to $2M.

[jeffthehat]

23 hours ago, jeffthehat said:

 

Malco

Dune: Part Two

Day	T-Release	Sales	Seats	Shows	Growth
Thu	T-5	1150	11158	62	+5.2%
Fri	T-6	1614	22401	129	+6.8%

Thursday Comps

1.69x The Marvels T-5 = $11.2m

1.98x HG BoSS T-5 = $11.4m

3.66x Wonka T-5 = $12.8m

Friday Comps

2.27x The Marvels T-6 = $34.0m

2.44x HG BoSS T-6 = $32.3m

---

Guessing the comps I have will point to ~$11m Thu only at finish. 

 

Malco

Dune: Part Two

Day	T-Release	Sales	Seats	Shows	Growth
Thu	T-4	1217	11158	62	+5.8%
Fri	T-5	1735	22550	132	+7.4%

Thursday Comps

1.73x The Marvels T-4 = $11.4m

1.98x HG BoSS T-4 = $11.4m

3.76x Wonka T-4 = $13.2m

Friday Comps

2.26x The Marvels T-5 = $33.8m

2.46x HG BoSS T-5 = $32.6m

[Porthos]

I almost never do this, but late late last night I did a pull on Friday numbers locally for Dune: Part Two.

 

(this is in fact a Tracking post which is why I am making it here)

 

Quick One Time Look at Dune: Part Two — SACTO FRIDAY SHOWTIMES

3169/37280 (8.50% sold) [250 showtimes]

 

1.23934x Dune 2 Thursday pre-sales                    [???m]

1.01668x Dune 2 Sunday + Thursday pre-sales   [???m]

-----

Some selected High Traffic [for this movie at any rate] theaters:

362 tickets sold at Century Arden        [105.23% of Thr sales]

196 tickets sold at Regal Delta Shores [92.45% of Thr sales]

270 tickets sold at Cinemark Roseville [104.65% of Thr sales]

591 tickets sold at EsquireIMAX            [128.48% of Thr sales]

 

====

 

Not gonna dig deep into the numbers, but by eyeball test holding better than TET did on its Fri-->Sat sales at this point in time (Sat was running at around 92% to 93% or so of Fri as of T-7 [no I don't have anything closer).

 

Now outside of TET I don't have anything really to compare this to, so no comment about legs at all here (and not the thread for that discussion as Eric has reminded us). 

 

But what I can say is that much like Oppenheimer this is doing bananas PLF business past previews.  And considering this has a ton of PLF demand already burnt off, that's not too bad.

 

(no I didn't figure out the PLF percentage and I'm about to head out the door  — might figure it out in about an hour or so_

 

 

[Porthos]

42 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I almost never do this, but late late last night I did a pull on Friday numbers locally for Dune: Part Two.

 

(this is in fact a Tracking post which is why I am making it here)

 

Quick One Time Look at Dune: Part Two — SACTO FRIDAY SHOWTIMES

3169/37280 (8.50% sold) [250 showtimes]

 

(no I didn't figure out the PLF percentage and I'm about to head out the door  — might figure it out in about an hour or so_

 

 

 

Since it's about 45 minutes later, a separate post.

 

PLF percentage for Friday is 67.21% of all sales (2130/3169).  That's broadly similar to the current Thursday PLF percentage of 70.28% of all sales (1797/2557).  Within the same ballpark at any rate.

 

[misterpepp]

Knox Goes Away tix should be on sale this Tuesday, Feb 27.

[Maaatt]

5 hours ago, vafrow said:

From my vantage point, Dune 2 has been remarkably unremarkable in its growth. In my tracking, I don't think it's had a bad day, but I don't think it's had a great day. Just steady, single digit daily growth.

 

I also have been wondering about the advertising here. I don't like putting too much stock in ads seen because it's so anecdotal, but, I really haven't seen a lot advertised on this. I was watching a hockey game last night, and, if you have a big film being advertised in Canada, Saturday broadcast is where the eyeballs are.

 

It feels like WB has assessed that this isn't a franchise that's going to go much beyond it's core audience, and they're focused on that audience. I know there's a big premiere event happening in Montreal with Chalamet and Villeneuve appearing at. Watching some subreddits, core fans are going crazy trying to secure tickets.

 

My worry is that if Dune can't break out of its box, there's a lot of big films this year that will have similar challenges. Planet of the Apes and Furiosa are the two that concern me. 

Is that true about the eyeballs for Canada TV being on a Saturday broadcast? Cause its like the polar opposite in the US where Saturday is an infamous dead zone in terms of television audience (at least since the 1990’s, prior to that it had been a big night for NBC in the 80’s & was CBS’s top rated night in the 70’s).
 

Traditionally in the US studios wanted to market their films most heavily on Thursday nights. Its one of the reasons Thursday nights became “must see tv” on NBC in the 80’s & 90’s and why the other networks worked hard to break the monopoly NBC had on total viewership for that night. Advertising rates for Thursday nights were higher in part because the Hollywood studios used that night so aggressively to market their film slates for the upcoming weekend (there were also other types of advertisers who favored Thursday nights because the product they were marketing was more likely to be bought by households on the weekend, but given the importance of weekend box office relative to weekday it was just particularly important for the studios). 
 

Sorry, i know that was a bit off topic and a tangent, but i bring up this marketing history just to point to the challenges the marketing departments at studios have nowadays. Flooding the airwaves of television on the Thursday night before your movie opens just doesn’t help you in the same way it used to, theres nowhere near as many eyeballs watching and of the smaller number that are, some are either delaying viewing to fast forward through commercials or flipping through their phones during ad breaks, not paying attention.   In terms of what Warner believes for who the audience of Dune is, I disagree that they have assessed this to

just be a movie for the core fans, in fact I think they are doing what they can to position this movie for audience beyond the core Dune fans (that doesn’t necessarily mean their efforts will be successful). Matt Belloni (now at Puck News, previously the editor of the Hollywood Reporter) has said that the marketing and exhibition teams at WB have been frustrated/struggled on expanding the audience & getting this movie to track at the level they think it should & could be tracking at. Anyways this is already way too long (sorry guys!) but they are trying, they delayed release to March to ensure they’d open after the SAG strike precisely because they see the young cast as an important marketing tool to younger audiences (its why they’ve been sending them around the world for the last month), theres been weeks of across the board ad spending on tv, Youtube, socials, radio, etc. they screened the movie for exhibitors in early January to get them excited, screened the movie for critics/media far & wide & lifted embargoes early, re-released Dune in theaters w/ part 2 previews, this weeks Tenet IMAX re-release w/ Dune previews, early access screenings tonight to gin up word of mouth for this week, etc. 

 

ok really am done now! Sorry that was so

long.

[AlternateEnding]

19 minutes ago, Maaatt said:

Is that true about the eyeballs for Canada TV being on a Saturday broadcast? Cause its like the polar opposite in the US where Saturday is an infamous dead zone in terms of television audience (at least since the 1990’s, prior to that it had been a big night for NBC in the 80’s & was CBS’s top rated night in the 70’s).
 

Traditionally in the US studios wanted to market their films most heavily on Thursday nights. Its one of the reasons Thursday nights became “must see tv” on NBC in the 80’s & 90’s and why the other networks worked hard to break the monopoly NBC had on total viewership for that night. Advertising rates for Thursday nights were higher in part because the Hollywood studios used that night so aggressively to market their film slates for the upcoming weekend (there were also other types of advertisers who favored Thursday nights because the product they were marketing was more likely to be bought by households on the weekend, but given the importance of weekend box office relative to weekday it was just particularly important for the studios). 
 

Sorry, i know that was a bit off topic and a tangent, but i bring up this marketing history just to point to the challenges the marketing departments at studios have nowadays. Flooding the airwaves of television on the Thursday night before your movie opens just doesn’t help you in the same way it used to, theres nowhere near as many eyeballs watching and of the smaller number that are, some are either delaying viewing to fast forward through commercials or flipping through their phones during ad breaks, not paying attention.   In terms of what Warner believes for who the audience of Dune is, I disagree that they have assessed this to

just be a movie for the core fans, in fact I think they are doing what they can to position this movie for audience beyond the core Dune fans (that doesn’t necessarily mean their efforts will be successful). Matt Belloni (now at Puck News, previously the editor of the Hollywood Reporter) has said that the marketing and exhibition teams at WB have been frustrated/struggled on expanding the audience & getting this movie to track at the level they think it should & could be tracking at. Anyways this is already way too long (sorry guys!) but they are trying, they delayed release to March to ensure they’d open after the SAG strike precisely because they see the young cast as an important marketing tool to younger audiences (its why they’ve been sending them around the world for the last month), theres been weeks of across the board ad spending on tv, Youtube, socials, radio, etc. they screened the movie for exhibitors in early January to get them excited, screened the movie for critics/media far & wide & lifted embargoes early, re-released Dune in theaters w/ part 2 previews, this weeks Tenet IMAX re-release w/ Dune previews, early access screenings tonight to gin up word of mouth for this week, etc. 

 

ok really am done now! Sorry that was so

long.

Saturday night is Hockey Night it Canada.  It shows the Canadian teams (by market) and is something of a national institution.  I doubt it gets as many eyeballs as it did in years gone by (before the advent of streaming, gaming, social media etc.), but it will be on in just about any bar/restaurant or social gathering in a home.  People may not be watching it, but it will just be in the background, like football would on a Sunday afternoon.

[vafrow]

43 minutes ago, Maaatt said:

Is that true about the eyeballs for Canada TV being on a Saturday broadcast? Cause its like the polar opposite in the US where Saturday is an infamous dead zone in terms of television audience (at least since the 1990’s, prior to that it had been a big night for NBC in the 80’s & was CBS’s top rated night in the 70’s).
 

Traditionally in the US studios wanted to market their films most heavily on Thursday nights. Its one of the reasons Thursday nights became “must see tv” on NBC in the 80’s & 90’s and why the other networks worked hard to break the monopoly NBC had on total viewership for that night. Advertising rates for Thursday nights were higher in part because the Hollywood studios used that night so aggressively to market their film slates for the upcoming weekend (there were also other types of advertisers who favored Thursday nights because the product they were marketing was more likely to be bought by households on the weekend, but given the importance of weekend box office relative to weekday it was just particularly important for the studios). 
 

Sorry, i know that was a bit off topic and a tangent, but i bring up this marketing history just to point to the challenges the marketing departments at studios have nowadays. Flooding the airwaves of television on the Thursday night before your movie opens just doesn’t help you in the same way it used to, theres nowhere near as many eyeballs watching and of the smaller number that are, some are either delaying viewing to fast forward through commercials or flipping through their phones during ad breaks, not paying attention.   In terms of what Warner believes for who the audience of Dune is, I disagree that they have assessed this to

just be a movie for the core fans, in fact I think they are doing what they can to position this movie for audience beyond the core Dune fans (that doesn’t necessarily mean their efforts will be successful). Matt Belloni (now at Puck News, previously the editor of the Hollywood Reporter) has said that the marketing and exhibition teams at WB have been frustrated/struggled on expanding the audience & getting this movie to track at the level they think it should & could be tracking at. Anyways this is already way too long (sorry guys!) but they are trying, they delayed release to March to ensure they’d open after the SAG strike precisely because they see the young cast as an important marketing tool to younger audiences (its why they’ve been sending them around the world for the last month), theres been weeks of across the board ad spending on tv, Youtube, socials, radio, etc. they screened the movie for exhibitors in early January to get them excited, screened the movie for critics/media far & wide & lifted embargoes early, re-released Dune in theaters w/ part 2 previews, this weeks Tenet IMAX re-release w/ Dune previews, early access screenings tonight to gin up word of mouth for this week, etc. 

 

ok really am done now! Sorry that was so

long.

 

Saturday viewing is more specific to the hockey broadcast. Saturday night's Hockey Night in Canada is probably most comparable to Monday Night Football. 

 

Outside of that, Canadian viewership patterns mimic that of Americans for the most part.

 

Going back to the advertising, I wasn't watching the main game, so maybe there was a different marketing presence there, but I found the lack of anything a bit surprising. 

 

It also made me realize that I haven't seen much of the campaign on this. It hasn't hit my socials. But, WB has been a bit less traditional up here. At Christmas, they worked with the main theatre chain to run a pretty ridiculous promotion, where buying tickets to all three of Wonka, Color Purple and Aquaman was netting people $50 worth of loyalty points. It's possible they're working on something along those lines.

 

 

[abracadabra1998]

On 2/22/2024 at 10:21 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Dune Part 2 (T-7):

Day: T-11, T-7	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 18 theaters	85	522	2669	16811	15.88
Sunday Feb 25 EA: 4 theaters	4	153	947	1082	87.52
TOTALS:	89	675	3616	17893	20.21

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		2343	435	87.79
MTC1:		1326	192	49.68
Marcus:		280	61	10.49
Alamo:		355	40	13.3
Other chains:		708	229	26.53

 

Comps (Thursday only):

1.26x Oppy: $13.21 Million

2.15x The Marvels: $14.18 Million

2x MI7 (w/ EA): $17.97 Million

0.67x Barbie (w/ EA): $14.91 Million

 

Average: $15.07 Million

 

Even as it's cooling down in this market, still running ahead of most other places. Indy comp just didn't make sense so I took that out.

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Dune Part 2 (T-4):

Day: T-4, T-1 hour	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 18 theaters	86	474	3143	17059	18.42
Sunday Feb 25 EA: 4 theaters	4	108	1055	1082	97.5
TOTALS:	90	582	4198	18141	23.14

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		2748	405	87.43
MTC1:		1521	195	48.39
Marcus:		333	53	10.59
Alamo:		399	44	12.69
Other chains:		890	182	28.32

(Chart is Thursday tickets only)

 

Comps (Thursday only):

1.17x Oppy: $12.24 Million

2.27x The Marvels: $14.96 Million

1.62x MI7 (w/ EA): $14.6 Million

0.62x Barbie (w/ EA): $13.72 Million

 

Average: $13.88 Million

 

@TheFlatLannister I have been super busy so I wasn't able to answer your post, but basically The Marvels is the only MCU movie I have, no ATSV or anything else  I know it's not a good comp, but I have a serious dearth of good ones. Oppy expectedly dropping, I think the comp value will be under $10 Million at T-1.

 

As to the big city problem that @M37 has mentioned, I definitely agree. My market consistently overperforms for cinephile/ younger-skewing titles (KoFM, Dune, Hunger Games etc.). I am planning on expanding a bit of the theaters I track to include some greater Minnesota (maybe Mankato, Rochester, Duluth, or at least greater metro area) to address this, but that is a summer project for me. Teaching is just too much at the moment and this is the most I can do  

[abracadabra1998]

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

The Chosen S4, Eps 7-8 (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 14 theaters	26	178	178	2293	7.76

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		69	69	38.76
Marcus:		61	61	34.27
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		48	48	26.97

 

Comps:

0.85x Chosen S4, Eps 4-6: $660k

0.33x Chosen S4, Eps 1-3: $480k

1.05x After Death: $420k

1.38x The Shift: $515k

 

Average: $520k

 

Kung Fu Panda 4 and Imaginary updates later tonight!

[leoh]

4 hours ago, Johnny Tran said:

 

Tough comparison there. Wasn't FNAF also released on Peacock the week it came out?  

 

I expect Dune Part 2 to have a nice opening but better legs.  I think there will be some repeat viewings and maybe more importantly, there is nothing on the calendar that's going to eat into it.  It has a great release date. 

Kung Fu Panda will take over Dolby Cinema halls in Dune second weekend. Besides some projections are seeing Kung fu Panda at a possible 35M+ OW. These are def factors that may prevent  Dune second weekend from getting better legs.

[keysersoze123]

MTC1 is just below 47K. It should cross 50K by the time all west coast shows start. Pretty impressive but expected. MTC2 is just 14 shows and 3426/4319. Even if it sells out everything it wont make more than 75K 🙂 MTC3 is the other big chain that should do good numbers and its playing in many independent Imax theaters including Museum ones. San Jose Tech Museum has sold out as is many other museum imax. it should be enough to cross 2m.  

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA

 

DUNE 2 IMAX EA

 

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
26	3735	5707	65.4%

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

1288 seats sold over the past week-ish 

 

Super strong EA sales continue 

FLORIDA

 

DUNE 2 IMAX EA

 

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
26	3923	5707	68.7%

 

SELLOUTS

2

 

188 seats sold since yesterday 

 

Strong finish to EA sales. 

[leoh]

8 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

The Chosen S4, Eps 7-8 (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 14 theaters	26	178	178	2293	7.76

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		69	69	38.76
Marcus:		61	61	34.27
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		48	48	26.97

 

Comps:

0.85x Chosen S4, Eps 4-6: $660k

0.33x Chosen S4, Eps 1-3: $480k

1.05x After Death: $420k

1.38x The Shift: $515k

 

Average: $520k

 

Kung Fu Panda 4 and Imaginary updates later tonight!

These numbers make me realize how insane is the ~12M box office got this weekend by Sony’s Crumchyroll Demon Slayer (two episodes). Anime is a really big deal in the US.

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

DUNE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-5

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
591	7320	112287	6.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

370

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

2852

*148 seats sold

 

COMPS

T-5

 

(1.090x) of Oppenheimer $11.45M 

(0.457x) of Barbie $9.65M 

(0.579x) of ATSV $10.05M 

(2.345x) of Aquaman 2 $10.55M 

 

Comps average: $10.45M

 

Good news, it increased against Oppenheimer today for the first time in a while. Still decreasing quickly against Barbie and ATSV. Removed Wonka because that comp was at $8M

FLORIDA 

 

DUNE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-4

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
591	7725	112287	6.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

405

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

2996

*144 seats sold

 

COMPS

T-4

 

(1.057x) of Oppenheimer $11.10M 

(0.445x) of Barbie $9.39M 

(0.540x) of ATSV $9.37M 

(2.370x) of Aquaman 2 $10.67M 

 

Comps average: $10.13M

 

It's T-4 and i'm still not seeing much in terms of pace. Decreased against all comps except Aquaman 2 

 

Oppenheimer comp will likely fall under $11M for the first time tomorrow 

 

@M37 It's going to be tight, but I think you're right. 5K threshold seems likely assuming Dune can sell 1k seats in the final day.

[vafrow]

The Dune EA shows didn't quite get to sellout levels near me. 90% or so, which is pretty good.

 

Some of the higher profile locations in the downtown area got there.

[lorddemaxus]

Does anyone know if RT/Fandango has opened verified audience reviews for early screenings before? Was wondering if we'd see the verified score up tonight or tomorrow morning

 

Edit: Nvm, just saw that RT does allow early screening viewers to rate, but the score doesn't show up until Friday.

Edited February 26 by lorddemaxus