The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Cmasterclay]

To be clear I predicted 65-70 for months, but that would be shitty relative to the last two weeks of reasonable explanations where it looked more like 75-85 was the range. Box office really needs it to go over John Wick numbers.

[leoh]

3 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

To be clear I predicted 65-70 for months, but that would be shitty relative to the last two weeks of reasonable explanations where it looked more like 75-85 was the range. Box office really needs it to go over John Wick numbers.

maybe you were misled by dune fans, the early purchases gave the feeling that it could go way higher than it actually could.

 

Dune has a terrible reputation among GA

Edited February 29 by leoh

[von Kenni]

18 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Dune 2 MTC1

Previews(T-1) - 125368/701741 2333105.70 3942 shows +13810

Friday - 154760/1157762 2825004.46 6506 shows +20014

Saturday - 164927/1206487 2881342.67 6794 shows +22541 

 

Another meh day. its targeting around 9ish for thursday at this point. Let us see how walkups go as there are no capacity constraints. 

 

	MTC1
	Dune 1	Dune 2	Difference
THU (T-1)	68917	125368	182%
FRI (T-2)	84455	154760	183%
	ATP
	Dune 1	Dune 2	Difference
THU (T-1)	17.67	18.61	5.35%
FRI (T-2)	17.24	18.25	5.91%

 

Even though ATP is upward for some reason and looking much better for FRI doesn't much help if the MTC comp dropped for THU from T-2 187% to 182% and even Friday from 188% to 183% in one day. Especially if that's a harbinger of tomorrow...

 

IF it could keep those Dune 1 comps and not go downward from those, it can still make $9.8M THU preview, and FRI with increased ATP looks 194% of Dune 1, then it could still get to $80M, especially if Saturday looks better (don't have the comps for that from Dune 1 right now...). BUT if the trajectory is downward and walkups are screwed....

 

[TheFlatLannister]

24 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

SAT is relatively doing better than FRI but its also more to FRI being low. Korea had bad walkups, which is at times a sign for DOM as well. Sub $70M is a possibility now. What a roller coster ride in last 4 days.

Dune 2 blowing a 28-3 lead was not on my radar, This is why I was very cautious with my projections since the start of presales since I expected it to skew a lot more fan heavy. 

[Blue35]

It’s weird how rave reviews came out and then sales have turned downwards (after a small initial bump)

[Joyous Legion]

On 2/26/2024 at 7:33 PM, rehpyc said:

 

 

I guess I'm really just here to confirm what the other great trackers have indicated.. current trajectories of each of the mentioned comps are looking around a 10M average (excluding EA) should their current growth patterns remain. Avatar, Dune, and Oppenheimer are particularly flat and likely the best indicators, indicating a range about 9-10M, with Oppenheimer edging that lower end.

 

Dune 2 T-7 to T-4 (excluding EA)

Oppenheimer: 9.65, 9.46, 9.28, 9.09

Avatar 2: 9.60, 9.59, 9.61, 9.52

Dune 1: 10.13, 10.06, 10.01, 10.02

Jurassic World 😧 15.26, 14.82, 14.46, 13.85

Barbie: 16.70, 15.63, 14.77, 13.73

 

8 hours ago, rehpyc said:

A bit late on providing an update on this from yesterday's sales, but I'm trying to stay on top of things as best I can for you all.

 

Dune 2 T-3 to T-2 (excluding EA)

Oppenheimer: 9.40, 9.38

Avatar 2: 10.22, 10.52

Dune 1: 10.34, 10.36

Jurassic World: apparently I deleted it?

Barbie: 13.28, 12.64

Just popping in briefly at the tail end of things here:

size adjusted comp from rehpyc (-JW) T-7 to T-2

11.1, 10.8, 10.6, 10.3, 10.6, 10.55

 

Fairly steady, but I would guess t-1 will be ~10.0 based on how other regions are faring

 

Personally thinking ~ 2+9*8=74 — that IM seems high from fundamentals, but fss sales are solid, so 🤷‍♂️

 

Perhaps low PSm’s will resolve the tension 

 

Sounds like you guys had some exciting days but from perspective of D1 to T-1 semi checked out guy seems very little has happened 😂

Edited February 29 by Legion Again

[Cmasterclay]

5 minutes ago, leoh said:

maybe you were misled by dune fans, the early purchases gave the feeling that it could go way higher than it actually could.

 

Dune has a terrible reputation among GA

I mean last summer I said it was going below The Meg 2, I've been the main one beating the drum that this franchise has a hard ceiling with the general audience. I did begin to buy that the empty marketplace and masterful marketing might pay off to a bigger breakout.

[von Kenni]

26 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

SAT is relatively doing better than FRI but its also more to FRI being low. Korea had bad walkups, which is at times a sign for DOM as well. Sub $70M is a possibility now. What a roller coster ride in last 4 days.

 

Possibility, sure. But by how much? 5%, 10%, 15%? Still highly unlikely.

 

Once I find the Sat Dune 1 MTC1 numbers I can refine my past estimate but tough to see that walkups would considerably be worse than Dune 1 in comps...even though the downward trajectory is worrisome. I hope cool heads prevail, at least for the weekend.

[leoh]

2 minutes ago, Blue35 said:

It’s weird how rave reviews came out and then sales have turned downwards (after a small initial bump)

I think @TheFlatLannister warned us some days ago that Dune could be very much front loaded cuz it has a considerable fanbase.

I mean at the end of the day it’s doing just like any successful sequels does: huge sales when pre sales start and not as much of a big deal near to the release.

[TheFlatLannister]

2 minutes ago, Blue35 said:

It’s weird how rave reviews came out and then sales have turned downwards (after a small initial bump)

Presales are actually really similar to Mi7 where rave reviews came out but pace just continued to decline and OW projections just continued to plummet. 

[Cmasterclay]

I still think Dune 2 does JW4 numbers pretty much exactly (73/185) and the top six openers of March 2024 outgross March 2023 fwiw. But there's a 500m hole in April, and somehow we are longing for the days of fucking Quantumania because of how weak Jan and Feb were.

[TheFlatLannister]

8 minutes ago, leoh said:

I think @TheFlatLannister warned us some days ago that Dune could be very much front loaded cuz it has a considerable fanbase.

I mean at the end of the day it’s doing just like any successful sequels does: huge sales when pre sales start and not as much of a big deal near to the release.

Not necessarily that it had a considerable fanbase, but the fact that Cinephiles really embraced Dune 1 and it kind of become a budding cult classic in that community. Also, I  saw a lot of sales in the first few days of presales then it greatly tapered off which I inferred meant there was a substantial amount of fanrush baked in.

 

I don't have FRI, SAT, or SUN data so it was all deductive reasoning 

Edited February 29 by TheFlatLannister

[WorkingonaName]

Really glad I bet on the under $87M LMAO.

[leoh]

5 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I mean last summer I said it was going below The Meg 2, I've been the main one beating the drum that this franchise has a hard ceiling with the general audience. I did begin to buy that the empty marketplace and masterful marketing might pay off to a bigger breakout.

yeah I know what you mean, you don’t know what I had to read here when said it’d not do 100M OW by any means (some even called out @Shawn Robbins cuz he was putting Dune celling at 75M!!!). Then when it came clear 100M was not possible, some started saying “at least Oppenheimer box office (over 80M)”… and when Warner Bros said to Variety they were projecting 65M+ , this was just “low ball”… so yeah sometimes people just see what they wanna see.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[HummingLemon496]

22 minutes ago, Legion Again said:

 

Just popping in briefly at the tail end of things here:

size adjusted comp from rehpyc (-JW) T-7 to T-2

11.1, 10.8, 10.6, 10.3, 10.6, 10.55

 

Fairly steady, but I would guess t-1 will be ~10.0 based on how other regions are faring

 

Personally thinking ~ 2+9*8=74 — that IM seems high from fundamentals, but fss sales are solid, so 🤷‍♂️

 

Perhaps low PSm’s will resolve the tension 

 

Sounds like you guys had some exciting days but from perspective of D1 to T-1 semi checked out guy seems very little has happened 😂

 

Edited February 29 by HummingLemon496

[leoh]

7 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Not necessarily that it had a considerable fanbase, but the fact that Cinephiles really embraced Dune 1 and it kind of become a budding cult classic in that community. Also, I  saw a lot of sales in the first few days of presales then it greatly tapered off which I inferred meant there was a substantial amount of fanrush baked in.

 

I don't have FRI, SAT, or SUN data so it was all deductive reasoning 

One of big problems for dune box office is the terrible reputation it has among GA. The first movie is constantly mocked by regular people as a movie you put to go sleep. Yet I was told this Dune sequel   has WAY MORE action than the first movie, but still the damage is already made by the stereotype the first movie has among GA.

[Speedorito]

I’m curious to what wallops are like because the super positive reviews and social media reactions have been out there for a while, and there were even sold out fan screenings on Sunday. Surprised that the projections are dipping.

[leoh]

32 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I mean last summer I said it was going below The Meg 2, I've been the main one beating the drum that this franchise has a hard ceiling with the general audience. I did begin to buy that the empty marketplace and masterful marketing might pay off to a bigger breakout.

One of big problems for dune box office is the terrible reputation it has among GA. The first movie is constantly mocked by regular people as a movie you put to go sleep. Yet I was told this Dune sequel   has WAY MORE action than the first movie, but still the damage is already made by the stereotype the first movie has among GA.

[emoviefan]

These last few pages have been  so  gdam depressing. It's not  fun being a box office nerd anymore. Pinnng my hopes on The Fall Guy breaking out. Otherwise what a slog these next few months are going to be. 

[Joyous Legion]

10 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

 

That was for 2023 release Dune

On 1/27/2024 at 8:14 AM, Legion Again said:

Haven’t been looking closely at Dune and don’t plan to, but being a sequel instead of a first entry is another pretty important variable. Verrrrrrrry loosely from this start thinking like 8-12*6-7.5 for 55-75ish

Here is 2024 release Dune

 

My prediction a few hours ago would be 11*6.73