The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[DAJK]

Yea… Dune was really strong here in southwest BC (Vancouver/Van Island). The first Dune was also incredibly strong (played like an 80M opener if not higher). Dune 2 previews at the various theaters I have access to all had previews in the range of 13-18M without EA. Again, these are going to overindex like crazy, but even without the high ATP the sheer number of tickets sold was pretty insane. 
 

Well ahead of what Oppy did in the middle of summer across the board, and approaching Barbie levels in some locations. 

[leoh]

20 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

I feel like this statement is extremely relevant right now

 

This is the final count from Miami walkups tonight. Argylle and Night Swim are terrible comps, but I have nothing else. Dune kind of fell off drastically for late night showings. Not great. 

 

	Night swim	Argylle	Dune 2
10:00 PM	245	87	487
9:00 PM	334	238	943
8:00 PM	343	554	2100
7:00 PM	759	731	3108
6:00 PM	764	869	3947
5:00 PM
Total seats sold	2445	2479	10585

wow 

Edited March 1 by leoh

[von Kenni]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Dune 2 MTC1

Previews Final - 159901/703588 2888378.49 3963 shows +34533

Friday - 188677/1160663 3378473.19 6542 shows +33917

Saturday - 193147/1206254 3331495.73 6796 shows +29220

 

Meh finish. In fact this has to be among the most disappointing PS finish though if you had told me before start of presales of this number I would take it. ~9m previews only bcos this will have record breaking ATP driven mostly by Imax and PLF. Charlie has the right range for OW at this point. Let us see how walkups go over the weekend. 

 

When you had your day 3pm update I compared it to your Dune 1 2:11pm posted update and walkups were only 126% compare to Dune 1. This is 133%. What the hell? The baseline was 181-182% and it tracked even higher for a while. Let it at least be partly due to long run time and people wanting to see it with IMAX in the weekend.

 

Edited March 1 by von Kenni

[Maaatt]

1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:

I feel like this statement is extremely relevant right now

 

This is the final count from Miami walkups tonight. Argylle and Night Swim are terrible comps, but I have nothing else. Dune kind of fell off drastically for late night showings. Not great. 

 

	Night swim	Argylle	Dune 2
10:00 PM	245	87	487
9:00 PM	334	238	943
8:00 PM	343	554	2100
7:00 PM	759	731	3108
6:00 PM	764	869	3947
5:00 PM
Total seats sold	2445	2479	10585

That nearly 3 hour run time really makes later evening showtimes unattractive to me, especially on a non holiday (or holiday break), non summer weeknight. I rarely will go late night for a movie as it is but when its a long movie its an absolute dealbreaker. 

[Porthos]

On 2/23/2024 at 1:03 AM, Porthos said:

Quick and Dirty Kung Fu Panda 4 Sacramento Report [T-14]

159/11054 (1.44% sold) [+16 tickets] [86 showtimes]

 

0.50476x GBA at T-14                   [2.57m] [adj'ed for ATP hikes since 2021]

1.00633x Elemental at T-14          [2.42m]

0.63600x Wonka at T-14              [2.23m]

 

Not gonna over think this as it's a Q&D and at T-14 to boot.  Plus I got some nice harmony there, so imma rollin' with it.

 

NARRATOR:  GBA had only been on sale for three days at that point though

 

HUSH NARRATOR!!!

 

Anyway, as I said, not really overthinking it.  Though I do have a strict Wish EA comp not bringing it in due to being just too different of a release pattern (plus it being about half of the above totals) and I probably don't have much else really worth using as a comp (at least for T-14).  Or rather, don't want to spend the time thinking about what to look for.

 

So all in all... Eh.  Not great, not terrible.  And not even in the ironic sense.  Tracking fairly closely to Elemental at the moment (which sold 17 tickets on its T-14).

 

So unless something radically changes my mind, next update (if I feel like it) at T-7.

 

Quick and Dirty Kung Fu Panda 4 Sacramento Report [T-7]

345/12499 (2.76% sold) [+29 tickets] [97 showtimes]

 

0.46875x  GBA at T-7           [2.38m] [adj'ed for ATP hikes since 2021]
1.12745x    Elemental at T-7 [2.71m]
0.71134x   Wonka at T-7       [2.49m]

 

====

 

Eh.  Seeing some growth, but no real acceleration yet.  Still, not the best comps in the world here so could just be bad pattern matching.  Probs won't make another update until T-3 or so unless I see real signs of takeoff locally.

[misterpepp]

American Society tix on sale March 5

[Porthos]

Quick and Dirty Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire Sacramento Report [T-21]

210/18221 (1.15% sold) [111 showtimes]

 

Day 1 Comp against Ghostbusters: Afterlife:

1.05528x GBA after one day of sales       [5.37m] [adj'ed for ATP hikes since 2021]

-----

Assorted Other Day 1 comps (don't take too seriously)

0.49296x BA after one day of sales               [3.75m]
1.77966x Shazam 2 after one day of sales    [6.05m]

0.43659x Wick 4 after one day of sales        [3.89m]
0.46256x TLM after one day of sales            [4.76m]
0.49763x Indy 5 after one day of sales         [3.58m]
0.32864x FNAF after one day of sales          [3.38m]
0.86420x THG:BOSS after one day of sales [4.97m]

 

======

 

That ATP hike is doing a decent amount of work here, but I'm not really loving the other comps I have.  Really, the info against GBA is the best piece of info I have I reckon, with the rest providing context.

 

So, yeah.  Decent as I said earlier.  Will want to see a couple of days of sales to see the pattern here and if it's worth shifting to a full track or not.

Edited March 8 by Porthos
Added Shazam 2 D1 comp after thinking about it a bit

[WorkingonaName]

3 minutes ago, misterpepp said:

American Society tix on sale March 5

One ticket for....

[vafrow]

On 2/29/2024 at 4:32 AM, vafrow said:

 

Kung Fu Panda 4, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-8 Thursday previews

 

Total Sales: 91

New Sales: 5

Growth: 6%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 5.4

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 3/2

Late Afternoon: 21/3

Early Evening: 42/6

Late Evening: 25/6

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 67/8
3D Regular: 9/5
Dolby: 15/1

 

Comps

1.978x Wonka for $6.9

 

Mediocre day. Nothing too interesting.

 

 

Kung Fu Panda 4, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-7 Thursday previews

 

Total Sales: 113

New Sales: 22

Growth: 24%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 6.6

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 3/2

Late Afternoon: 28/3

Early Evening: 48/6

Late Evening: 34/6

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 76/8
3D Regular:11/6
Dolby: 26/3

 

Comps

2.132x Wonka for $7.5

 

A really good day. With sales seemingly driven by some small groups, it's leading to a bit of an up and down growth pattern. But overall, this is doing pretty well, especially since my assumption was that previews would be off a bit as people hold on this to watch during the break.

[vafrow]

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), D1, T-21, Thursday previews,

 

Total Sales: 16

New Sales: NA

Growth: NA

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 4

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 1.2

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 2/3

Early Evening: 11/5

Late Evening: 3/5

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 14/10
IMAX:2/1
VIP: 0/2

 

D1 Comps

0.340x HG:BoSS for $2.0

0.889x Madame Web for $5.4M 

0.727x Aquaman 2 for $3.3M

 

Not a bad start, but some important context here.

 

For some reason, the biggest theatre in my sample doesn't have any Thursday showtimes. And it has Friday showings, so it's not like they're skipping this one. This is the theatre with the best IMAX screen in the area as well, which probably would have driven day one sales a bit. Plus, the only other IMAX screen in my sample only has a 4:00 pm showing.

 

Also, I'm using day one comps, but the three films all had shorter ticket windows, which might be impacting things.

 

Also, this film seems to have premium ticket pricing in effect. Tickets have a $1 premium attached. This was in place for Dune and for Kung Fu Panda. I haven't been tracking this specifically, but MTC4 apparently put it in around Barbenheimmer last year for opening weekend of big films.

 

I'll try and track it up front a bit more, but, I'm guessing any film that I'll be tracking will have it in place for opening weekend.

 

What's really funny is the chain has taken a lot of heat for putting in an online booking fee. There's been lawsuits and lots of negative press for being deceitful pricing. But they've managed to put in a form of surge pricing essentially without a lot push back, and without people really noticing.

Edited March 1 by vafrow

[YM!]

8 hours ago, Unfitclock said:

@dallas Kung fu panda is an animated film why would it only have a 10x previews to weekend multipliers when usually they do around 20 or so

Post Pandemic, The only animations to have a 20x multiplier over even 15x+ were largely younger skewing films outside of summer. KFP4 will skew older due to being a sequel and being familiar IP. 10-12x should be the range.

Edited March 1 by YM!

[M37]

9 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Dune 2 MTC1

Previews Final - 159901/703588 2888378.49 3963 shows +34533

Friday - 188677/1160663 3378473.19 6542 shows +33917

Saturday - 193147/1206254 3331495.73 6796 shows +29220

 

Meh finish. In fact this has to be among the most disappointing PS finish though if you had told me before start of presales of this number I would take it. ~9m previews only bcos this will have record breaking ATP driven mostly by Imax and PLF. Charlie has the right range for OW at this point. Let us see how walkups go over the weekend. 

 

I feel as though I have to follow up here and express just how absolutely terrible a final day increase that is relative to presales. For some context (all data for MTC1)

 

Films that are considered a walk-up monster (Jurassic, Fast & Furious, family fare) will see total sales grow from T-1 to T-F in range of +67%.

A strong walk-up film will be still over >50%, like Indy 5, ATSV, Aquaman 2

The bigger tent-poles almost always see a ~44% increase over that final day (the consistency around that value is actually remarkable)

Here is everything for which I have logged data which fell below that +44% zone

• Oppy +39.0% (capacity limitations)
• The Color Purple +38.5% (Xmas Day)
• AMWQ +35.2% (poor reviews)
• Strange MoM +29.5% (major capacity limitations)
• Dune II +27.5%

Yep, Dune now is the lowest in the data set...

In addition, thanks to the weak Thursday, total growth from T-3 (after the Monday surge) to T-F is a step below everything except AMWQ and Strange MoM

 

The combination of limited GA appeal, PLF preference/capacity constraints, and long running time on a weekday evening probably all contributed, but still ... OUCH

Edited March 1 by M37

[dallas]

Imo, a movie like Dune 2 is always a hard sell on preview night because realistically, nobody is going to be seeing a 3-hour epic past 7 on a work/school night. That being said, seeing how spread presales are throughout the weekend, in combination with the aforementioned issue, I wager the IM will land in the high 7s-mid 8s, especially if it lands that 'A' Cinemascore

[VanillaSkies]

5 hours ago, von Kenni said:

 

When you had your day 3pm update I compared it to your Dune 1 2:11pm posted update and walkups were only 126% compare to Dune 1. This is 133%. What the hell? The baseline was 181-182% and it tracked even higher for a while. Let it at least be partly due to long run time and people wanting to see it with IMAX in the weekend.

 

I think those are 2 very important factors. Die hards want to see it in IMAX and other PLFs, which were pretty much maxed out. GA isn’t going to see a 3 hour movie at 11pm (or 3am) and will just wait for the weekend. 
 

We could see a really backloaded weekend because of these two factors.

[M37]

43 minutes ago, YM! said:

Post Pandemic, The only animations to have a 20x multiplier over even 15x+ were largely younger skewing films outside of summer. KFP4 will skew older due to being a sequel and being familiar IP. 10-12x should be the range.

Problem is, there isn't a great data set for animation & family films post-pandemic. Here's what I wrote before Trolls:

On 11/12/2023 at 3:21 PM, M37 said:

There's a big gap between the more mature or summer films like Ghostbusters Afterlife, Sonic 2, Elemental and Super Pets at around 10-12x, and then the far less brand heavy non-summer Friday openers like Bad Guys and Lyle Crocodile at ~20x (Paw Patrol didn't even have previews, at least in US).  Pretty much every other notable animated movie post-pandemic was a Wednesday release (TMNT, Mario, Puss, Strange World, Sing 2, & Encanto!)

... which went on to have a 23x (excluding EA, which was a Sat sneak preview). Plus we also have Spring Break effect, where some number of schools will be off and inflate weekdays, including the preview

 

The Th/Fri ratio is the biggest pivot point, with Sonic 2's 3.19x (including Wed EA) similar to Super Pets 3.24x in July, so probably too low, while the Lyle/Bad Guys/Trolls contingent were all at least 5.3x, which is likely too high give some level of fanticipation and older audience for KFP4

 

To me, something like a 4-4.5x Fri/Thu ratio, then standard Sat/Sun daily changes would land in 14-16x range, which feels about where to split the difference. Keeping an eye on Friday sales to see if that ratio looks appropriate

[Legion Again]

Always hard to tell how much being an aging franchise with some aging fanbase will weigh on the scale until it happens but I have been thinking like 12-15x fwiw

[vafrow]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

 

I fell as though I have to follow up here and express just how absolutely terrible a final day increase that is relative to presales. For some context (all data for MTC1)

 

Films that are considered a walk-up monster (Jurassic, Fast & Furious, family fare) will see total sales grow from T-1 to T-F in range of +67%.

A strong walk-up film will be still over >50%, like Indy 5, ATSV, Aquaman 2

The bigger tent-poles almost always see a ~44% increase over that final day (the consistency around that value is actually remarkable)

Here is everything for which I have logged data which fell below that +44% zone

• Oppy +39.0% (capacity limitations)
• The Color Purple 38.5% (Xmas Day)
• AMWQ +35.2% (poor reviews)
• Strange MoM +29.5% (major capacity limitations)
• Dune II 27.5%

Yep, Dune now is the lowest in the data set...

In addition, thanks to the weak Thursday, total growth from T-3 (after the Monday surge) to T-F is a step below everything except AMWQ and Strange MoM

 

The combination of limited GA appeal, PLF preference/capacity constraints, and long running time on a weekday evening probably all contributed, but still ... OUCH

 

My suspicion is that while this feels like an outlier, that we may see more cases like this going forward.

 

I think Oppenheimer did a lot to convince people that you need to go IMAX or bust for certain films. Dune is probably one of the bigger cases, but, I think any film that's targeting people on big visuals is going to have this issue. People will push for the format, and delay watching rather than watch substandard.

 

If Oppenheimer didn't get that Barbie crossover, it probably would have seen a similar fate, and the next Nolan film might get the same.

 

The two upcoming films to watch for is Furiosa and POTA. Films that are highly visual, and mature franchises that probably aren't expanding the fan base. Neither film likely demands people to see it right away to avoid spoilers like a Marvel film might, so people will be selective on formats.

[Last Man Standing]

21 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

My suspicion is that while this feels like an outlier, that we may see more cases like this going forward.

 

I think Oppenheimer did a lot to convince people that you need to go IMAX or bust for certain films. Dune is probably one of the bigger cases, but, I think any film that's targeting people on big visuals is going to have this issue. People will push for the format, and delay watching rather than watch substandard.

 

If Oppenheimer didn't get that Barbie crossover, it probably would have seen a similar fate, and the next Nolan film might get the same.

 

The two upcoming films to watch for is Furiosa and POTA. Films that are highly visual, and mature franchises that probably aren't expanding the fan base. Neither film likely demands people to see it right away to avoid spoilers like a Marvel film might, so people will be selective on formats.

It's not actually an issue as long as people actually end up watching, it just bums out people who like tracking big OWs (us).

[katnisscinnaplex]

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
Dune: Part Two	3,378	136,042	-	122,015	-	14,027	4,977	0
Bob Marley: One Love	2,883	39,710	-	39,569	-	141	0	0
Ordinary Angels	2,615	31,224	-	31,206	-	18	0	0
Madame Web	2,570	28,925	-	28,859	-	66	0	0
Demon Slayer	1,834	26,326	-	26,275	-	51	0	0
The Chosen 4: 7-8	2,167	20,593	-	20,593	-	0	0	0
Drive-Away Dolls	2,105	19,894	-	19,894	-	0	0	0
Migration	1,898	16,834	-	16,599	-	235	0	215
Wonka	1,571	13,423	-	13,397	-	26	0	0
Argylle	1,890	11,913	-	11,873	-	40	0	0
The Beekeeper	1,180	9,705	-	9,687	-	18	0	0
Land of Bad	496	3,615	-	3,615	-	0	0	0
Anyone But You	455	2,976	-	2,976	-	0	0	0
Night Swim	304	2,438	-	2,438	-	0	0	0
American Fiction	633	2,145	-	2,130	-	15	0	0

 

3/1/24 USA Sample Showtime Report*

*Not all theaters are included

 

Opening Weekend Comps

Dune: Part Two - 136,042 (3,378 TC) (21,486 Previews)

 - Venom 2 - 137,474 (3,273) (21,288)

 - Morbius - 134,155 (3,418) (17,516)

 - Black Adam - 138,408 (3,499) (21,714)

 - Shang-Chi - 133,770 (3,523) (15,697)

 

Chosen 4: 7-8 - 20,593 (2,167 TC) (4,373 Previews)

 - Chosen 3: 1-2 - 22,999 (1,970)

 - Christmas W/ Chosen - 18,800 (1,556)

 

T-1 Week Comps

Kung-Fu Panda 4 - 58,221 (2,720 TC) (11,489 Previews)

 - Elemental - 59,677 (2,622) (10,948)

 - Sonic 2 - 51,242 (2,764) (9,350)

 - Haunted Mansion - 41,831 (2,393) (8,100)

 - Lightyear - 82,420 (2,745) (15,359)

 - TMNT - 39,056 (2,105)

 

Cabrini - 24,239 (2,105 TC) (3,075 Previews)

 - Bros - 25,620 (2,161) (4,139)

 - Babylon - 24,509 (2,289) (4,781)

 

Imaginary - 27,409 (2,048 TC) (3,510 Previews)

 - Smile - 27,557 (2,196) (3,057)

 - M3GAN - 29,092 (2,210) (5,168)

 

T-2 Week Previews Comps

Arthur the King - 4,330 (1,559 TC)

 - Easter Sunday - 4,712 (1,706)

 - Strays - 4,756 (1,745)

 - Man Called Otto (Expansion) - 3,582 (1,324)

 

Love Lies Bleeding - 2,106 (831 TC)

 - She Said - 2,214 (1,081)

 - Beast - 2,330 (845)

 - Death on the Nile - 2,077 (790)

 

One Life - 1,243 (494 TC)

 - Man Called Otto (limited) - 1,066 (346)

 - Journal for Jordan - 882 (353)

 

T-3 Week Previews Comps

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire - 10,683 (1,917 TC)

 - Black Adam - 10,710 (1,868)

 - Shazam 2 - 10,850 (2,193)

 - Venom 2 - 12,285 (1,978)

 - Barbie - 10,086 (2,388)

[vafrow]

20 minutes ago, Last Man Standing said:

It's not actually an issue as long as people actually end up watching, it just bums out people who like tracking big OWs (us).

 

Agreed. It's probably better for theatres to have things spread out a bit. It does put pressure on chains to improve facilities. This group is going to know which screens are best and travel accordingly.

 

But, I'm more stating it as it should be a consideration for use of comps.