The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[SchumacherFTW]

1 hour ago, NoobSaibot said:

 

I would probably argue that Dune AND Godzilla are IP's that likely have contractual ties with WB, but I'm not sure if that's even a proper argument to be made.

 

All I know is that when Legendary's deal with Warner Bros. ended after Godzilla's release in 2014, it still had ties to the studio even with Kong: Skull Island. Legendary had a deal with Universal during that period despite that and it ended in 2019. If Legendary decides to finance another Godzilla/Kong feature, one should reasonably expect it to be distributed by Warner Bros. and not Sony.

 

That being said, this conversation is probably better off in the Godzilla x Kong thread and not here.

Besides, remember the last time Sony made a Godzilla film for western markets.... 

[Porthos]

On 3/8/2024 at 2:14 AM, Porthos said:

 

Quick and Dirty Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire Sacramento Report [T-14]

453/19671 (2.30% sold) [+35 tickets] [116 showtimes]

 

1.43810x GBA at T-14                [7.32m] [adj'ed for ATP hikes since 2021]
0.89881x Sonic 2 at T-14          [5.62m]
0.49671x Black Adam at T-14   [3.78m]
0.39357x Wick 4 at T-14           [3.50m]
0.56343x RotB at T-14              [4.96m]
1.81200x Wonka at T-14            [6.34m]

 

----

 

Okay, before I say anything else, that GBA comp is a more than a bit misleading, as at this level of sales even four extra days of pre-sales will put a thumb on the scale.  Still.  Still, here are the first eight days of GBA vs the first eight days of GBFE side-by-side:

 

GBA			GBFE
T-17:	199		T-21:	210
T-16:	49		T-20:	38
T-15:	27		T-19:	47
T-14:	40		T-18:	33
T-13:	49		T-17:	35
T-12:	37		T-16:	12
T-11:	30		T-15:	43
T-10:	99		T-14:	35

 

Broadly similar until T-10 of GBA (don't remember if that was a social media lift or not, but it's close enough to release to Be Something). 

 

If we normalize the dates, we get:

			GBFE
			T-21:	210
			T-20:	38
			T-19:	47
GBA			T-18:	33
T-17:	199		T-17:	35
T-16:	49		T-16:	12
T-15:	27		T-15:	43
T-14:	40		T-14:	35

 

And it's not that different on pace, aside from a blip at T-16 for GBFE.  OTOH, GBFE got added to the TrueIMAX theater in town yesterday and has promptly sold 41 tickets over two days, giving it a bit of a boost in this portion of the U-curve.  Plus "past performance" and all that.

 

Now none of the other comps except for Wonka (which isn't that good of a comp I KNOW) is pointing to above 6m, but...

 

Well, gonna give a harder look at this than I was expecting. See how it goes over the next day or so, especially against both Sonic 2 (which started at T-24) and Rise of the Beasts (which started at T-29) plus give a deeper look at some of the other markets (none of which are this rosy for GBFE, from what I recall).

 

What I will say is that except for the T-16 day, the daily sales for GBFE have been... Not Too Bad.  Which says something.  Not a lot, maybe, but still something.

 

Quick and Dirty Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire Sacramento Report [T-7]

684/20724 (3.30% sold) [+61 tickets] [123 showtimes]

 

0.92935x GBA at T-7         [4.73m] [adj'ed for ATP hikes since 2021]
0.74836x Sonic 2 at T-7    [4.68m]
0.48962x BA at T-7           [3.72m]
0.39220x Wick 4 at T-7     [3.49m]
0.46216x  Fast X at T-7     [3.47m]
0.54329x RotB at T-7        [4.78m]
0.83111x  BOSS at T-7       [4.78m]
1.40741x  Wonka at T-7     [4.93m]
0.90119x  Aqua 2 at T-7    [4.06m]

 

====

 

Yeaaaah, warned y'all this was a possibility a few days ago when I found out the embargo release strategy.  Not liking the odds at 5m+ right now. 

 

Now it should be said, this might have a stronger push at the very end than some of the comped films thanks to a later review bump.  But, then again, trying to disentangle late review bounce from normal GA accelerated buying is... tricky even in the best of circumstances.

 

See how it goes, I suppose.  Next update at T-3.

[Porthos]

22 hours ago, Porthos said:

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire — Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-15 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	120	18388	18828	440	2.34%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

440

 

Assorted Day 1 Comps

	%		Sold Day 1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BA	103.29		426	426		0/142	21387/21813	1.95%		4494	9.79%		8.87m
Wick 4	91.48		481	481		0/82	11915/12396	3.88%		5448	8.08%		8.14m
AtSV	43.18		1019	1019		0/124	17505/18524	5.50%		9744	4.52%		7.49m
FNAF	68.86		639	639		0/52	6623/7262	8.80%		6466	6.80%		7.09m
BOSS	181.07		243	243		0/77	12063/12306	1.97%		2701	16.29%		10.41m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Godzilla x Kong's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Assorted T-15 Comps

	%		Sold T-15	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BA T-15	51.58		65	853		0/146	21214/22067	3.87%		4494	9.79%		3.92m
Wick 4 T-15	40.48		64	1087		0/88	12243/13330	8.15%		5448	8.08%		3.60m
Fast X T-15	46.41		42	948		0/178	26762/27710	3.42%		4122	10.67%		3.48m
AtSV T-15	23.26		71	1892		0/123	18027/19919	9.50%		9744	4.52%		4.03m
FNAF T-15	24.51		85	1795		0/102	13476/15271	11.75%		6466	6.80%		2.52m

 

Regal:         99/7318  [1.35% sold]
Matinee:       6/2085  [0.29% | 1.36% of all tickets sold]
3D:              32/4642  [0.69% | 7.27% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Yeah, pretty much what we were thinking this afternoon.  Threw in a ton of T-15 comps *NOT* because they are indicative, but to show how much of a hatchet things will take whenever I shift to T-x (prob after D3 or so). Be interesting to note the rise of them over the next couple of days.

 

Not much else to add.  Fairly good start.  Now it's just a matter of how the 1,500 meter run goes (16 days of pre-sales is not exactly a sprint, but it sure isn't a marathon, either).

 

...

 

Also, because I know folks will ask: 

GxK D1 = 0.91904x Dune 2 THURSDAY ONLY D1 SALES [9.19m*]

* Yes, I know.**

** Also, I don't care.

 

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire — Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-14 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	126	19285	19863	578	2.91%

 

Total Showings Added Today	6
Total Seats Added Today	1035
Total Seats Sold Today	138

 

Assorted Day 2 Comps

	%		Sold Day 2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BA	115.14		76	502		0/142	21311/21813	2.30%		4494	12.86%		9.89m
Wick 4	87.98		176	657		0/84	12063/12720	5.17%		5448	10.61%		7.83m
AtSV	45.44		253	1272		0/123	18626/19898	6.39%		9744	5.93%		7.88m
FNAF	68.56		204	843		0/65	8837/9680	8.71%		6466	8.94%		7.06m
BOSS	173.05		91	334		0/81	12545/12879	2.59%		2701	21.40%		9.95m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Godzilla x Kong's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Assorted T-14 Comps

	%		Sold T-14	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BOSS	173.05		91	334		0/81	12545/12879	2.59%		2701	21.40%		9.95m
BA T-14	63.38		59	912		0/146	21155/22067	4.13%		4494	12.86%		4.82m
Wick 4 T-14	50.22		64	1151		0/88	12191/13342	8.63%		5448	10.61%		4.47m
Fast X T-14	60.97		42	948		0/178	26762/27710	3.42%		4122	14.02%		4.57m
AtSV T-14	29.10		94	1986		0/129	18803/20789	9.55%		9744	5.93%		5.05m
RotB T-14	71.89		---	804		0/120	18633/19437	4.14%		9744	5.93%		6.33m
FNAF T-14	30.78		83	1878		0/102	13393/15271	12.30%		6466	8.94%		3.17m

 

Regal:       118/7318  [1.61% sold]
Matinee:     11/2085  [0.53% | 1.90% of all tickets sold]
3D:             54/4642  [1.16% | 9.34% of all tickets sold]
PLF:         404/8686  [4.65% | 69.90% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Very nice second day, but can already see the accelerated calendar putting a bit of a thumb on a couple of the D2 comps, I think.  Gonna do one more Dx comp before ripping off the bandaid and fully going to T-x comps on Saturday.

 

FWIW, GBFE numbers [which I'll probably add to the chart in a day or two]:

 

GxE = 2.33065x GBFE after two days of pre-sales [???m] [578/248]

GxE = 1.27594x GBFE at T-14                                    [???m] [578/453]

[Brainbug]

6 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

@Brainbug trying to set expectations by buying out a bunch of Florida showtimes. 

 

Money well spent. I do have problems with my rent right now, but i coudnt resist.

[katnisscinnaplex]

8 hours ago, Jerri Blank-Diggler said:

Love Lies Bleeding theater count was not listed. Does anyone know roughly how many theaters it's expanding into this week? In my region (which has more than 3 million people), it's not opening widely, more on par with American Society and One Life. Is that the case more broadly?

In my showtime report coming out later, I've got LLB in around 1,200 US theaters.  Looking at other A24 films ratios from sample to final I would guess it'd be a little under 1,300 total

[katnisscinnaplex]

8 hours ago, DAJK said:

Authur the King isn’t playing ANYWHERE on Vancouver Island! Any chance the studio is skipping a Canadian release?

IMDB has a Canada release date of 3/22

[vafrow]

On 3/14/2024 at 4:35 AM, vafrow said:

 

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-8, Thursday previews,

 

Total Sales: 63

New Sales: 5

Growth: 9%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 22

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 2.9

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 5/6

Early Evening: 54/8

Late Evening: 4/8

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 44/10
IMAX:6/4
VIP: 13/5

4DX: 0/3

 

Comps

0.326x HG:BoSS for $1.9M

0.516x Madame Web for $3.8M 

0.778x Aquaman 2 for $3.5M

0.110x Dune 2 for $1.1M

0.156x The Marvels for $1.0M

1.370x Wonka for $5.4M

Average: $2.6M

 

Still very anemic. It's already behind GxK in raw sales despite coming out a week earlier and having been on sale for weeks.

 

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-7, Thursday previews,

 

Total Sales: 65

New Sales: 2

Growth: 3%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 22

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 3.0

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 5/6

Early Evening: 56/8

Late Evening: 4/8

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 46/10
IMAX:6/4
VIP: 13/5

4DX: 0/3

 

Comps

0.310x HG:BoSS for $1.8M

0.436x Madame Web for $2.6M 

0.739x Aquaman 2 for $3.3M

0.107x Dune 2 for $1.1M

0.149x The Marvels for $1.0M

1.226x Wonka for $4.3M

Average: $2.3M

 

Continues to fall. I know other regions aren't doing quite as bad, but this seems like a drastic turn.

 

I think being the fourth biggest film in a month that's going to have three $50M openers is having an effect.

 

I'm taking my kid and a half dozen of his friends to see this on the opening Saturday. For any other film, I'd be stressed trying to make sure we buy early enough to get a block of seats. Right now, the showing is practically empty. 

 

This does seem walk up friendly, which might mitigate worst case scenarios, but it's also coming out on the weekend between March Break and Easter weekend. It's not the weekend where people are going to look to movie theatres, especially families.

Edited March 16 by vafrow

[stargazing]

Dune and Monsterverse franchises remain with Warner Bros in spite of Legendary's new deal with Sony. Mary Parent of Legendary said so in an interview with The Wrap recently: https://www.thewrap.com/dune-2-legendary-mary-parent-interview/#:~:text=Mary Parent%2C producer of the,reality of making a blockbuster

 

"Everything we’ve done with Warners will continue to be done with Warners. If we’re fortunate enough to go forward, those films will go forward with Warners. So no impact." 

 

[vafrow]

On 3/14/2024 at 4:53 AM, vafrow said:

 

Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire, western GTA (Southern Ontario), D1 (hour 18, T-15, Thursday Previews 

 

Total Sales: 68

New Sales: 17

Growth: 33%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 4.0

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 4/3

Early Evening: 39/7

Late Evening: 25/7

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 2/1

Dolby 3D: 33/6
VIP: 15/4

4DX: 14/3

IMAX: 4/3

 

Comps (D1)

1.447x HG: BoSS for $8.3M

2.833x  Madame Web for $22.9M

3.091x Aquaman 2 for $13.9M

4.250x GB:FE for ???

Average: $15.0M

Continued it's strong trend .

 

I didn't include it as a comp because of too many differences, but it actually matched One Love in total D1 sales. That had an 8 day run, and grew steadily each day. 

 

Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire, western GTA (Southern Ontario), D2, T-14, Thursday Previews 

 

Total Sales: 113

New Sales: 45

Growth: 66%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 4.0

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 17/3

Early Evening: 69/7

Late Evening: 27/7

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 2/1

Dolby 3D: 55/6
VIP: 19/4

4DX: 18/3

IMAX: 19/3

 

Comps (D2)

1.487x HG: BoSS for $8.5M

4.345x  Madame Web for $26.3M

3.897x Aquaman 2 for $17.5M

5.947x GB:FE for ???

Average: $17.5M

 

Very strong second day. Went up against all comps. As mentioned yesterday, this is all premium formats as well. No regular showings are available.

 

The one downside is that Friday doesn't look as strong right now. This probably will be a bit more front loaded.

[Jerri Blank-Diggler]

56 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

In my showtime report coming out later, I've got LLB in around 1,200 US theaters.  Looking at other A24 films ratios from sample to final I would guess it'd be a little under 1,300 total

 

Thanks for that. I always look forward to your showtime report.

 

Late last night (early Friday AM East Coast time), Box Office Report published the following in its Weekend Predictions:

 

"This weekend will also see A24's Love Lies Bleeding expand to semi-wide release and Focus's The American Society of Magical Negroes and Bleecker Street's One Life debut in semi-wide release. Love Lies Bleeding will be playing in an estimated 1,000 locations this weekend, while The American Society of Magical Negroes will be playing in 1,147 locations and One Life will be playing in 983 locations.

 

http://www.boxofficereport.com/predictions/predictions20240314.html

[katnisscinnaplex]

20 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Ghostbusters: FE	T-7	Jax	6	61	22	151	9,040	1.67%
		Phx	6	53	12	164	9,018	1.82%
		Ral	8	48	15	162	6,936	2.34%
	Total		20	162	49	477	24,994	1.91%

 

T-7 comps

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - 1.089x (3.38m)

 - Shazam 2 - .962x (3.27m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.205x (4.94m)

 - NTTD (Total) - .541x (3.41m)

 - TMNT (Total) - .596x (3.34m)

 - MI:7 (Total) - .432x (3.81m)

 - Ghostbusters Afterlife (Total) - .807x (3.63m)

 - Uncharted - 1x (3.7m)

 - Indiana Jones - .527x (3.79m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 3.76m

 

A couple other movies that may be comps, but I'm not committing to the model yet

 - Nope - .907x (5.8m)

 - Morbius - .608x (3.47m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Ghostbusters: FE	T-6	Jax	6	61	8	159	9,040	1.76%
		Phx	6	53	2	166	9,018	1.84%
		Ral	8	48	9	171	6,936	2.47%
	Total		20	162	19	496	24,994	1.98%
Immaculate	T-6	Jax	4	6	2	2	578	0.35%
		Phx	4	6	2	2	580	0.34%
		Ral	6	10	3	3	626	0.48%
	Total		14	22	7	7	1,784	0.39%

 

Ghosts T-6 comps

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - .974x (3.02m)

 - Shazam 2 - .958x (3.26m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.167x (4.78m)

 - NTTD (Total) - missed

 - TMNT (Total) - .543x (3.04m)

 - MI:7 (Total) - .414x (3.64m)

 - Ghostbusters Afterlife (Total) - missed

 - Uncharted - .934x (3.46m)

 - Indiana Jones - .497x (3.58m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 3.6m

 

A couple other movies that may be comps, but I'm not committing to the model yet

 - Nope - .855x (5.47m)

 - Morbius - .592x (3.37m)

 

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Ghostbusters: FE	24.94%	8.31%	18.41%	3.98%
Haunted Total	35.73%	18.93%	17.76%	16.21%
Shazam 2	11.16%	8.37%	11.48%	4.44%
Suicide Squad	34.49%	11.39%	15.36%	7.32%
Turtles Total	42.43%	15.13%	18.38%	14.13%
M:I 7 Total	25.71%	14.27%	18.97%	8.61%
Uncharted	31.76%	-	-	11.32%
Indiana Jones	17.29%	12.35%	11.68%	10.17%

 

Pretty bad day, 3-day not great either but ahead of Shazam 2 and Indy.  Hoping for around +12% tomorrow, expecting around +6%.

 

Immaculate T-6 comps

 - Night House - .5x (130k)

 - Men - .259x (110k)

 - Firestarter - .212x (80k)

[katnisscinnaplex]

20 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Godzilla x Kong	T-14	Jax	5	53	121	121	9,702	1.25%
		Phx	6	35	153	153	5,619	2.72%
		Ral	8	55	102	102	7,740	1.32%
	Total		19	143	376	376	23,061	1.63%

 

Day 1 comps

 - JW3 (Total) - .378x (6.81m)

 - TG2 - .361x (6.97m)

 - Black Adam - 1.225x (9.31m)

 - Shazam 2 - 2.765x (9.4m)

 - TMNT (Total) - 1.249x (7m)

 - Ghostbusters: FE - 1.825x

 - Ghostbusters: Afterlife - 1.614x (6.7m)

 - F9 - 1.382x (9.81m)

 

Pretty good range of 6.5m - 10m

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Godzilla x Kong	T-13	Jax	5	53	23	144	9,702	1.48%
		Phx	6	35	28	181	5,619	3.22%
		Ral	8	55	8	110	7,740	1.42%
	Total		19	143	59	435	23,061	1.89%

 

Day 2 comps

 - TMNT (Total) - 1.182x (6.62m)

 - Ghostbusters: FE - 1.891x

 - Ghostbusters: Afterlife - 1.495x (6.2m)

 - F9 - 1.28x (9.08m)

 - Black Widow - .572x (7.55m)

 - Avatar 2 - .365x (6.2m)

 

T-13 comps

 - Avatar 2 - .192x (3.26m)

 - TMNT (Total) - .848x (4.75m)

 - M:I 7 (Total) - .566x (4.98m)

 - NTTD (Total) - .845x (5.32m)
 - Venom 2 - .816x (9.47m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.63x (6.68m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 6.23m

 

I like this as a starting point.  

[el sid]

Monkey Man, counted yesterday for Friday, April 5. 22 days left.
 

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 36 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 26 (6 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 0 (4 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 0 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 0 (2 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 39 (4 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 37 (9 showtimes)
 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 138.
 

Comps (all films counted for Friday): KotFM (6.8M true Friday) had with also 22 days left 584 sold tickets (it had very nice presales in my theaters first but only small jumps in its last week).
Uncharted (11.7M) had with 16 days left 276 sold tickets (= 6 days left for MM).
The Northman (3.6M) had with 10 days left 150 sold tickets (= 12 days left for MM). 
BT (8M) had on Monday of the release week 655 sold tickets (= 18 days left for MM).
The Beekeeper (4.4M) had on Monday of the release week 154 sold tickets (18 days left).
Dungeons and Dragons (9.6M) had on Monday of the release week 644 sold tickets (18 days left).
And Snake Eyes (4.1M) had also on Monday of the release week 272 sold tickets (again 18 days left).
RRR (?/9.5M OW) finally (= on Thursday for Friday) had 103 sold tickets.
 

I expected a bit better presales but overall that's still a quite good number.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 3/8/2024 at 11:44 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
Kung Fu Panda 4	3,448	120,504		101,117		19,387	0	16,307
Dune: Part Two	3,449	75,023	-25.37%	65,556	606.47	9,467	3,940	0
Imaginary	2,790	46,327		46,325		2	0	0
Cabrini	2,660	39,434		39,387		47	0	0
Bob Marley: One Love	2,379	29,545	-25.33%	29,459	187.16	86	0	0
Ordinary Angels	2,077	20,938	-32.90%	20,938	119.70	0	0	0
Madame Web	1,668	11,868	-58.88%	11,840	109.42	28	0	0
Migration	1,231	9,532	-42.57%	9,363	148.53	169	0	154
Chosen S4: Ep 7-8	1,089	6,414	-60.46%	6,414	159.50	0	0	0
Wonka	853	6,151	-54.09%	6,136	128.11	15	0	0
Demon Slayer	805	5,784	-77.99%	5,782	78.87	2	0	0
The Beekeeper	528	3,645	-62.37%	3,633	113.67	12	0	0
Shaitaan	401	3,293		3,293		0	0	0
Argylle	663	3,010	-74.65%	2,996	116.22	14	0	0
Poor Things	532	1,673		1,673		0	0	0
American Fiction	675	1,524	-28.45%	1,509	159.99	15	0	0
Anatomy of a Fall	571	646		646		0	0	0

 

3/8/24 USA Sample Showtime Report*

*Not all theaters are included

 

Opening Weekend Comps

Kung-Fu Panda 4 - 120,504 (3,448 TC) (18,013 previews)

 - Ghostbusters: Afterlife - 117,504 (3,243) (16,319)

 - Indiana Jones - 118,208 (3,707) (18,937)

 - Eternals - 118,603 (3,436) (14,155)

 - Transformers RotB - 119,071 (3,183) (18,066)

 

Imaginary - 46,327 (2,790 TC) (5,079 previews)

 - Boogeyman - 48,156 (2,789) (4,899)

 - Forever Purge - 46,917 (2,738) (4,733)

 - Joy Ride - 46,097 (2,561) (7,525)

 - Prey for the Devil - 45,409 (2,659) (5,198)

 - Menu - 45,234 (2,830) (5,725)

 - Escape Room 2 - 45,204 (2,482) (7,392)

 

Cabrini - 39,434 (2,660 TC) (4,135 previews)

 - Jesus Revolution - 39,652 (2,277 (4,242)

 - Massive Talent - 39,439 (2,708) (4,322)

 - House of Gucci - 38,900 (2,933) (4,185)

 - King Richard - 38,074 (2,890)

 

T-1 Week Comps

Arthur the King - 27,908 (2,072 TC) (5,416 previews)

 - I Wanna Dance - 28,953 (2,345) (6,409)

 - No Hard Feelings - 27,994 (1,836) (5,070)

 - Marry Me - 27,987 (2,321) (4,519)

 - Easter Sunday - 27,805 (1,950) (5,188)

 - West Side Story - 27,605 (1,950) (4,311)

 

Love Lies Bleeding - 13,476 (981 TC) (2,385 previews)

 - Malignant - 13,875 (1,363)

 - Redeeming Love - 13,519 (1,317) (1,690)
 - Bodies Bodies - 13,255 (917) (1,607)

 

American Society - 11,218 (793 TC) (1,775 previews)

 - Honk for Jesus - 11,931 (1,249) (2,597)

 - National Champions - 10,875 (911) (1,250)

 - The Cursed - 11,540 (959) (1,228)

 

One Life - 8,037 (586 TC) (1,371 previews)

 - Mrs Harris - 7,844 (572) (948)

 - Spencer - 8,405 (714) (1,377)

 - Jawan - 8,375 (541) (2,037)

 

T-2 Week Previews Comps

Ghostbusters - 12,645 (2,430 TC)

 - Secrets of Dumbledore - 11,617 (2,405) (11,617)

 - Shazam 2 - 11,334 (2,346) (11,334)

 - Indiana Jones - 13,664 (2,536) (13,664)

 - Flash - 14,296 (2,440) (14,296)

 

Immaculate - 1,599 (1,019 TC)

 - It Lives Inside - 1,660 (953) (1,660)

 - Haunting in Venice - 1,587 (622) (1,587)

 

T-3 Week Previews Comps

Godzilla x Kong - 4,406 (691 TC) (6.38 per)

 - Spider-Man - 5,529 (793) (6.97 per)

 - Secrets of Dumbledore - 3,764 (573) (6.57 per)

 - Venom - 12,285 (1,978) (6.21 per)

 

Still in the early stages of loading shows, so I put the closest shows per theater comps

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
Kung Fu Panda 4	3,332	93,860	-8.42%	78,060	481.23	15,800	0	11,513
Dune: Part Two	3,208	59,302	-20.95%	51,363	616.02	7,939	3,813	0
Arthur the King	2,851	46,715		46,615		100	0	0
Imaginary	2,737	35,732	-13.37%	35,728	213.97	4	0	0
Cabrini	2,615	26,472	-25.01%	26,450	181.79	22	0	0
Bob Marley: One Love	1,957	20,489	-30.65%	20,416	138.09	73	0	0
Ordinary Angels	1,529	13,122	-37.33%	13,118	94.85	4	0	0
Love Lies Bleeding	1,202	18,780		18,750		30	0	0
Oppenheimer	1,173	5,810		5,807		3	0	0
American Society	1,089	17,328		17,301		27	0	0
One Life	887	12,988		12,988		0	0	0
Madame Web	871	4,446	-62.54%	4,438	93.17	8	0	0
Poor Things	769	3,407	103.65%	3,407	140.88	0	0	0
Knox Goes Away	729	7,372		7,372		0	0	0
Migration	678	4,802	-49.62%	4,694	110.49	108	0	98
Snack Shack	417	5,611		5,611		0	0	0

 

3/15/24 USA Sample Showtime Report*

*Not all theaters are included

 

Opening Weekend Comp

Arthur the King - 46,715 (2,851 TC) (7,271 previews)

 - I Wanna Dance - 49,709 (3,156) (8,569)

 - Easter Sunday - 49,821 (2,846) (7,308)

 - Bros - 46,647 (2,995) (5,495)

 - Dog - 48,752 (3,099) (6,173)

 - Devotion - 49,384 (2,483) (5,810)

 

Love Lies Bleeding - 18,780 (1,202 TC) (2,907 previews)

 - Infinite Storm (1,481) (1,669)

 - The Hill - 20,410 (1,500) (2,337)
 - Malcolm's List- 13,255 (917) (1,607)

 - The Cursed - 20,717 (1,609) (1,995)

 - Zola - 16,722 (1,379)

 

American Society - 17,328 (1,089 TC) (2,497 previews)

 - Mr. Malcolm's List - 17,592 (1,263) (1,722)

 - Gigi & Nate - 16,776 (1,160) (2,692)

 - Show Me the Father - 15,629 (1,054) (2,072)

 

One Life - 12,988 (887 TC) (1,828 previews)

 - Mrs Harris - 13,334 (935) (1,350)

 - Spencer - 11,579 (840) (1,436)

 - Joe Bell - 13,994 (1,083) (1,157)

 - Golda - 12,520 (794) (1,860)

 

T-1 Week Comps

Ghostbusters - 70,344 (2,813 TC) (14,750 previews)

 - Transformers - 72,589 (2,647) (14,570)

 - Indiana Jones - 76,495 (2,876) (14,546)

 - Morbius - 72,706 (2,812) (12,590)

 - Eternals - 71,800 (2,852) (10,879)

 - Secrets of Dumbledore - 64,819 (2,899) (13,717)

 

Immaculate - 17,988 (1,251 TC) (1,938 previews)

 - Many Saints - 18,302 (1,823)

 - Antlers - 17,679 (1,504) (2,485)

 - Last Duel - 17,415 (1,888) (2,796)

 - X - 19,249 (1,746) (2,410)

 - She Said - 17,564 (1,504) (2,700)

 

Luca - 7,027 (792 TC)

 

T-2 Week Previews Comps

Godzilla x Kong - 12,011 (2,175 TC) (4,536 PLF)

 - Ghostbusters: FE - 12,645 (2,430) (2,171)

 - Indiana Jones - 13,664 (2,536) (2,868)

 - Secrets of Dumbledore - 11,617 (2,405) (2,116)

 - Jurassic World 3 - 20,186 (2,773) (5,091)

 - Avatar 2 - 19,029 (2,784) (11,434)

 - Venom 2 - 13,768 (2,381) (2,499)

 

T-3 Week Previews Comps

Monkey Man - 3,916 (1,715 TC)

 - M3GAN - 3,980 (1,646)

 - Scream - 3,888 (1,802)

 - Dungeons & Dragons - 4,074 (959)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 4,231 (1,812)

 - Black Phone - 4,270 (1,705)

 

Someone Like You (OD) - 3,173 (1,512 TC)

 

T-7 Week Previews Comps

Fall Guy (5/1 EA) - 1,083 (850 TC)

Fall Guy - 6,764 (1,921 TC)

[Issac Newton]

$825K Arthur The King Previews

[abracadabra1998]

1 minute ago, Issac Newton said:

$825K Arthur The King Previews

Goddamn I was off

[kayumanggi]

 

[Eric Lasagna]

Quorum Updates

Love Lies Bleeding T-1: 19.94%

The Fall Guy T-50: 32.97%

Tarot T-50: 22.34%

The Garfield Movie T-71: 37.69%

Inside Out 2 T-92: 49.47%

Trap T-141: 13.79%

 

Arthur the King T-1: 42.53% Awareness

Final Awareness: 85% chance of 10M, 47% chance of 20M

Low Awareness: 87% chance of 10M, 25% chance of 20M

 

Immaculate T-8: 25.79% Awareness

Final Awareness: 16% chance of 10M

Horror Awareness: 33% chance of 10M

 

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes T-57: 54.13% Awareness

T-60 Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 92% chance of 40M, 85% chance of 50M, 69% chance of 60M, 61% chance of 70M, 54% chance of 90M, 46% chance of 100M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 60M, 50% chance of 100M

 

IF T-64: 28.07% Awareness

T-60 Awareness: 59% chance of 10M, 31% chance of 20M, 12% chance of 30M, 9% chance of 40M

Animation/Family Awareness: 71% chance of 10M, 29% chance of 20M

[katnisscinnaplex]

Looking back at Arthur the King and the $825k preview number.  Here are the highest comps of the 126 movies I've tracked at T-1 hr.

 

Joy Ride - 828k

Smile - 723k

Bros - 665k
Nun 2 - 613k

Forever Purge - 612k

 

It gets lower and lower from there, averaging out to 400k.  While I think inflation has some to do with this, it has to go down as a massive under index for my areas.  Can anyone think of another reason all of the comps would be this far off?

[charlie Jatinder]

11 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

It gets lower and lower from there, averaging out to 400k.  While I think inflation has some to do with this, it has to go down as a massive under index for my areas.  Can anyone think of another reason all of the comps would be this far off?

Because
 

 

11 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Arthur MiniTC2 

Previews - 2381/21657 (101 showings) $25K

 

Normally this would mean $1.25M previews but MiniTC2 is gonna over index due to Spring Break. I guess $750K+ shall happen, may be $800-900K on high end.

 

FRI sales are good, can think of $4M True FRI. Weekend may be 13-15M.