The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Grand Cine]

Deadline in the weekend report today thinks 47-52M for Ghostbusters Frozen Empire

[leoh]

‘Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire’ to hit $50M+ OW

 

According to Deadline, Industry projects ‘Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire’ to get between 47M and 52M domestically next weekend.

 

So it is expected to increase up to 20% compared to its previous installment, ‘Ghostbusters: Afterlife’, which opened with 44M during the 2021 pandemic.

Domestically, even during the pandemic, Ghostbusters has always opened getting more than $40 million (OW) and has also always crossed 120M at the domestic BO.

 

Sony will release it in 4000+ locations.

 

 

 

https://deadline.com/2024/03/box-office-kung-fu-panda-4-dune-part-two-arthur-the-king-1235859800/

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 16 by leoh

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

Bar a Kung Fu Panda scenario that seems like a rare highball from Deadline. Looking more around 35M.

[MCKillswitch123]

1 hour ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

Bar a Kung Fu Panda scenario that seems like a rare highball from Deadline. Looking more around 35M.

 

That's the key, though: Kung Fu Panda really only grew to its eventual 60+ opening really late. Maybe Deadline is pegging Ghostbusters as a big walk-up hit too?

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

17 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

 

That's the key, though: Kung Fu Panda really only grew to its eventual 60+ opening really late. Maybe Deadline is pegging Ghostbusters as a big walk-up hit too?

Perhaps, but the target audience for Panda, that being families, is more keen to walkups/late sales than Ghostbusters’ older demographic I’d argue.

[Human]

Could be.  I have not ordered mine yet, but I am seeing it either opening Thursday or next Thursday or Friday.  Ghostbusters has a big Gen X fanbase who pay with their wallets, so I can see many of them not being big on preordering.  Of course it could also be like Expendables 4 where the fanbase waits to buy it on home media.

[Porthos]

Obviously counting on the T-mobile deal to rescue GBFE. 😉

 

Look, while it might be more concentrated than some, thinking GBFE is gonna act like a late-arriving GA film isn't without reason.

 

On the other hand, with four large(-ish) films release in a short amount of time "middle child syndrome" had to be kept in mind as a possibility.  It is true that technically movie going isn't a zero-sum game.  At the same time family movie-going budget isn't infinite, so increased competition in such a short amount of time within relatively similar demos really should be kept in mind.

 

So could that Deadline range hit?  Sure.  Personally I'd take the under, but we won't really know how likely that is until we see review/social bump + T-mobile bump.

[Menor the Destroyer]

13 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Obviously counting on the T-mobile deal to rescue GBFE. 😉

 

Look, while it might be more concentrated than some, thinking GBFE is gonna act like a late-arriving GA film isn't without reason.

 

On the other hand, with four large(-ish) films release in a short amount of time "middle child syndrome" had to be kept in mind as a possibility.  It is true that technically movie going isn't a zero-sum game.  At the same time family movie-going budget isn't infinite, so increased competition in such a short amount of time within relatively similar demos really should be kept in mind.

 

So could that Deadline range hit?  Sure.  Personally I'd take the under, but we won't really know how likely that is until we see review/social bump + T-mobile bump.

I mean technically anything can get good walkups, but Afterlife wasn't anything impressive and demographically Ghostbusters doesn't really fit with the type of film to get good walkups, I don't see any particular reason for this to be an exception.

[keysersoze123]

FYI Afterlife also had Tmobile deal.

[leoh]

56 minutes ago, Menor the Destroyer said:

I mean technically anything can get good walkups, but Afterlife wasn't anything impressive and demographically Ghostbusters doesn't really fit with the type of film to get good walkups, I don't see any particular reason for this to be an exception.

‘Ghostbusters: Afterlife’ got $130 million domestically being released during pandemic. This is pretty impressive, considering only 10 movies crossed 120M domestically in 2021.

Edited March 16 by leoh

[Porthos]

4 hours ago, Menor the Destroyer said:

I mean technically anything can get good walkups, but Afterlife wasn't anything impressive and demographically Ghostbusters doesn't really fit with the type of film to get good walkups, I don't see any particular reason for this to be an exception.

 

Probably a post I'll want to make in more detail another day, but I guess it all depends on just what one means by "good walkups". 

 

I will note that GBA had roughly 31% of its total local sales on its premiere night (by stop of tracking), and roughly 61% of its sales on TWTh.  That's not exactly small.

 

On the other hand, GBFE has four more days of sales and is a direct sequel to GBA, so there will be more upfront sales, which should depress those figures. 

 

On the other other hand, GBA had a social media lift months in advance thanks to CinemaCon reactions and as I check, looks like the review embargo was up nearly a month pre-release.  So it didn't benefit from a late release boost (though obvs all the new reviews would be treated as new info by the movie going public).

 

On the other other other hand, if social media/reviews impressions are lukewarm/bad that could seriously depress MTWTh sales.

 

Have other thoughts, but want to see Sat local sales before giving them too much weight.

Edited March 16 by Porthos

[CJohn]

No way Ghostbusters does 50M+. It won't even do 40M+. Reviews are clearly gonna be lackluster. The buzz just isn't there. 

[emoviefan]

13 minutes ago, CJohn said:

No way Ghostbusters does 50M+. It won't even do 40M+. Reviews are clearly gonna be lackluster. The buzz just isn't there. 

Yeah sad to say  something has to be the runt of the litter this month aka-the Shazam FOG and feels like it will be this. Dune Part 2,  KFP 4, and G& K:NE= Creed 3, Scream VI and JW 4. 

[leoh]

8 hours ago, Porthos said:

Obviously counting on the T-mobile deal to rescue GBFE. 😉

 

Look, while it might be more concentrated than some, thinking GBFE is gonna act like a late-arriving GA film isn't without reason.

 

On the other hand, with four large(-ish) films release in a short amount of time "middle child syndrome" had to be kept in mind as a possibility.  It is true that technically movie going isn't a zero-sum game.  At the same time family movie-going budget isn't infinite, so increased competition in such a short amount of time within relatively similar demos really should be kept in mind.

 

So could that Deadline range hit?  Sure.  Personally I'd take the under, but we won't really know how likely that is until we see review/social bump + T-mobile bump.

marketing improved a lot this week, they were in CBS and NBC shows these days, including Jimmy Fallon show yesterday, they are viral now on Instagram getting  millions of views with a clip they filmed for Jimmy Fallon show singing Ghostbusters song.

Edited March 17 by leoh

[misterpepp]

In the Land of Saints and Sinners on sale March 21

[Spidey Freak]

13 hours ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

Bar a Kung Fu Panda scenario that seems like a rare highball from Deadline. Looking more around 35M.

  

Cut to D'Alessandro next week when the actual numbers come in

 

We're told this is not a total disaster...

[keysersoze123]

On 3/15/2024 at 9:03 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire MTC1

Previews(T-6) - 27128/541132 472681.20 2778 shows +1462

Friday - 19109/624185 324008.51 3267 shows +1753

 

 

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire MTC1

Previews(T-5) - 29239/542772 507252.95 2784 shows +2111

Friday - 21053/628729 355748.03 3287 shows +1944

 

Definite sign of acceleration today. Let us see how rest of the PS goes. At least its going to beat Afterlife in previews if this sustains. Friday is still behind but let us see how it ends. 

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire MTC1

Previews(T-5) - 29239/542772 507252.95 2784 shows +2111

Friday - 21053/628729 355748.03 3287 shows +1944

 

Definite sign of acceleration today. Let us see how rest of the PS goes. At least its going to beat Afterlife in previews if this sustains. Friday is still behind but let us see how it ends. 

Weird coming on Saturday because generally Saturday drops from Friday and then rise on SUN. Was there anything special yday?

[Porthos]

On 3/16/2024 at 1:18 AM, Porthos said:

 

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire — Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-13 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	126	19202	19863	661	3.33%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

83

 

Assorted Day 3 Comps

	%		Sold Day 3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BA	120.18		48	550		0/146	21513/22063	2.49%		4494	14.71%		10.33m
Wick 4	91.17		68	725		0/84	11995/12720	5.70%		5448	12.13%		8.11m
AtSV	48.64		87	1359		0/123	18537/19896	6.83%		9744	6.78%		8.44m
FNAF	63.37		200	1043		0/68	9279/10322	10.10%		6466	10.22%		6.53m
BOSS	171.69		51	385		0/80	12154/12539	3.07%		2701	24.47%		9.87m
GBFE	224.07		47	295		0/114	18603/18898	1.56%		——	——		???m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Godzilla x Kong's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Assorted T-13 Comps

	%		Sold T-13	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BOSS	171.69		51	385		0/80	12154/12539	3.07%		2701	24.47%		9.87m
BA T-13	67.79		63	975		0/146	21092/22067	4.42%		4494	14.71%		5.15m
Wick 4 T-13	53.70		80	1231		0/89	12253/13484	9.13%		5448	12.13%		4.78m
Fast X T-13	60.15		52	1099		0/178	26611/27710	3.97%		4122	16.04%		4.51m
AtSV T-13	31.95		83	2069		0/129	18720/20789	9.95%		9744	6.78%		5.54m
RotB T-13	75.72		69	873		0/120	18564/19437	4.49%		9744	6.78%		6.66m
FNAF T-13	33.30		107	1985		0/102	13286/15271	13.00%		6466	10.22%		3.43m
GBFE T-13	135.73		34	487		0/116	19329/19816	2.46%		——	——%		0.00m

 

 

Regal:       118/7318  [1.61% sold]

Matinee:     11/2085  [0.53% | 1.90% of all tickets sold]
3D:             54/4642  [1.16% | 9.34% of all tickets sold]
PLF:         404/8686  [4.65% | 69.90% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Switching exclusively to T-x comps starting tomorrow night.

 

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire — Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-12 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	126	19110	19863	753	3.79%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

92

 

T-12 Comps

	%		Sold T-12	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BA	73.11		55	1030		0/146	21037/22067	4.67%		4494	16.76%		6.28m
Wick 4	58.64		53	1284		0/90	12301/13585	9.45%		5448	13.82%		5.22m
Fast X	64.47		69	1168		0/178	26545/27713	4.21%		4122	18.27%		4.84m
AtSV	34.96		85	2154		0/129	18632/20786	10.36%		9744	7.73%		6.07m
RotB	82.21		43	916		0/120	18521/19437	4.71%		9744	7.73%		7.23m
FNAF	36.41		83	2068		0/102	13203/15271	13.54%		6466	11.65%		3.75m
BOSS	174.71		46	431		0/82	12108/12539	3.44%		2701	27.88%		10.05m
GBFE	147.94		22	509		0/116	19307/19816	2.57%		——	——%		0.00m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Godzilla x Kong's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:      145/7318  [1.98% sold]
Matinee:    14/2085  [0.67% | 1.86% of all tickets sold]
3D:            66/4642  [1.42% | 8.76% of all tickets sold]
PLF:        488/8686  [5.62% | 64.81% of all tickets sold]

 

[charlie Jatinder]

On 3/16/2024 at 1:01 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Godzilla * Kong MiniTC2 T-13 Days

Previews - 859/48040 (182 showings)

 

Comps

1.17x John Wick 4 3 days - $10.4M

1.44x Black Adam 3 days - $10.9M (inf. adj. $11.5M+)

1.53x Hunger Games: BOSS 3 days - $8.8M

 

3.44x Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire 3 days

1.86x Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire at same time (9 days of sales)

 

Another strong day of sales. Since two main comps started sales a bit earlier than G*K, they shall continue to rise. Will likely change to T-x days comp at T-7 days, which will bring down comps a bit but will be closer to real number and ofc shall rise as we move closer to T-3/T-4 days.

Godzilla X Kong MiniTC2 T-12 Days

 

Previews - 985/48193 (182 showings)

 

Comps

1.14x John Wick 4 four days - $10.2M

1.45x Black Adam four days - $10.9M (inf. adj. $11.5M+)

1.47x Hunger Games: BOSS four days - $8.5M