The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

AniNate · March 21

I'm sure there is a bit of an Alex Garland following in urban areas, and ofc even tracking isn't expecting this to open anywhere close to Dune, I just don't think you can assume anything based on presales to this point when even A24 hasn't been super public that tickets are on sale.

It is possible that it might not have the same kind of suburban Canada pull that it could have in suburban US ofc.

Edited March 21 by AniNate

ando · March 21

Something could be happening, but I suspect it's just the Toronto A24 fans. Probably skewing younger too, college, 20-35 y.o.

kayumanggi · March 21

Inceptionzq · March 21

On 3/19/2024 at 5:02 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Godzilla X Kong Denver Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total 136 1025 13.27%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 148 1823 8.12%

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS

713 N/A 19117 3.73% 12 100

0.702 Transformers T-9 6.18M

0.359 AtSV T-9 6.23M

1.059 Black Adam T-9 8.05M

Godzilla X Kong Denver Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

144

1025

14.05%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

162

1823

8.89%

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 2 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
794	81	19117	4.15%	12	100

0.702	Transformers T-7	6.18M
0.352	AtSV T-7	6.11M
0.960	Black Adam T-7	7.30M

Inceptionzq · March 21

On 3/19/2024 at 5:03 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Godzilla x Kong Alamo Drafthouse

T-9 Thursday 118 Showings 1869 +1869 18813 ATP: 16.40

0.355 AtSV T-9 6.16M

1.201 Black Adam T-9 9.13M

T-10 Friday 157 Showings 2174 +2174 25951 ATP: 15.58

0.449 AtSV T-10 15.48M

1.614 Black Adam T-10 30.81M

T-11 Saturday 152 Showings 1531 +1531 25125 ATP: 15.12

0.325 AtSV T-11 12.15M

1.122 Black Adam T-11 26.59M

T-12 Sunday 134 Showings 509 +509 22870 ATP: 16.11

0.177 AtSV T-12 5.52M

1.129 Black Adam T-12 18.74M

Godzilla x Kong Alamo Drafthouse [+2 days of sales]

T-7 Thursday

119 Showings

2196

+327

18964

ATP:

16.26

0.350	AtSV T-7	6.07M
1.121	Black Adam T-7	8.52M

T-8 Friday

160 Showings

2693

+519

26287

ATP:

15.64

0.480	AtSV T-8	16.54M
1.701	Black Adam T-8	32.48M

T-9 Saturday

154 Showings

1850

+319

25773

ATP:

15.14

0.349	AtSV T-9	13.06M
1.163	Black Adam T-9	27.57M

T-10 Sunday

136 Showings

599

+90

23518

ATP:

15.80

0.180	AtSV T-10	5.62M
1.095	Black Adam T-10	18.18M

Inceptionzq · March 21

On 3/19/2024 at 5:04 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Godzilla x Kong Emagine Entertainment

T-9 Thursday 128 Showings 503 +503 20903

0.996 Transformers T-9 8.77M

0.298 AtSV T-9 5.18M

T-10 Friday 198 Showings 861 +861 32837

2.012 Transformers T-10 33.90M

0.539 AtSV T-10 18.61M

T-11 Saturday 202 Showings 726 +726 34066

1.962 Transformers T-11 37.97M

0.837 AtSV T-11 31.32M

T-12 Sunday 199 Showings 136 +136 32955

0.919 Transformers T-12 14.24M

0.401 AtSV T-12 12.54M

Godzilla x Kong Emagine Entertainment [+2 days of sales]

T-7 Thursday

128 Showings

682

+179

20905

1.220	Transformers T-7	10.74M
0.333	AtSV T-7	5.78M

T-8 Friday

198 Showings

1204

+343

32845

2.333	Transformers T-8	39.32M
0.603	AtSV T-8	20.79M

T-9 Saturday

201 Showings

869

+143

33946

2.050	Transformers T-9	39.66M
0.817	AtSV T-9	30.57M

T-10 Sunday

199 Showings

188

+52

32947

0.959	Transformers T-10	14.87M
0.486	AtSV T-10	15.18M

Inceptionzq · March 21

On 3/19/2024 at 4:46 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Ghostbusters Frozen Empire Emagine Entertainment

T-2 Thursday 163 Showings 967 +211 25926

0.892 Transformers T-2 7.85M

0.643 Fast X T-2 4.82M

T-3 Friday 286 Showings 1742 +340 41200

1.129 Transformers T-3 19.02M

0.709 Fast X T-3 14.55M

T-4 Saturday 293 Showings 1633 +456 43045

1.648 Transformers T-4 31.89M

1.214 Fast X T-4 27.32M

T-5 Sunday 279 Showings 656 +154 41279

1.247 Transformers T-5 19.33M

1.274 Fast X T-5 21.02M

Ghostbusters Frozen Empire Emagine Entertainment [+2 days of sales]

T-0 Thursday

166 Showings

1791

+824

26177

0.692	Transformers T-0	6.09M
0.644	Fast X T-0	4.83M

T-1 Friday

300 Showings

2905

+1163

42578

0.902	Transformers T-1	15.21M
0.671	Fast X T-1	13.77M

T-2 Saturday

306 Showings

2725

+1092

44331

1.529	Transformers T-2	29.59M
1.218	Fast X T-2	27.41M

T-3 Sunday

295 Showings

1119

+463

42899

1.254	Transformers T-3	19.44M
1.263	Fast X T-3	20.84M

Inceptionzq · March 21

On 3/19/2024 at 4:44 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Ghostbusters Frozen Empire Alamo Drafthouse

T-2 Thursday 224 Showings 4253 +505 30454 ATP: 16.66

1.102 GB Afterlife T-2 4.96M

T-3 Friday 303 Showings 4806 +730 41555 ATP: 16.52

1.214 GB Afterlife T-3 14.75M

T-4 Saturday 305 Showings 5690 +795 42438 ATP: 15.62

1.407 GB Afterlife T-4 23.13M

T-5 Sunday 276 Showings 3033 +395 37555 ATP: 14.92

1.503 GB Afterlife T-5 16.41M

Ghostbusters Frozen Empire Alamo Drafthouse [+2 days of sales]

T-0 Thursday

226 Showings

5781

+1528

30618

ATP:

16.40

1.163

GB Afterlife T-0

5.23M

T-1 Friday

306 Showings

6550

+1744

41836

ATP:

16.30

1.093

GB Afterlife T-1

13.28M

T-2 Saturday

305 Showings

7537

+1847

42491

ATP:

15.60

1.306

GB Afterlife T-2

21.47M

T-3 Sunday

279 Showings

3942

+909

37839

ATP:

14.83

1.397

GB Afterlife T-3

15.26M

TheFlatLannister · March 21

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Since you have less comps for Florida will suggest to use Orlando ones for time being. In time you will have more of Florida comps.

Fandango unfortunately closes showtimes so I wouldn’t get an accurate picture if I ran the script right now

Inceptionzq · March 21

On 3/19/2024 at 4:43 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Ghostbusters Frozen Empire Denver Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total 228 2091 10.90%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 252 2005 12.57%

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS

1235 212 20830 5.93% 13 102

0.961 Fast X T-2 7.21M

0.775 Black Adam T-2 5.89M

0.643 Transformers T-2 5.65M

1.197 GB Afterlife T-2 5.39M

Ghostbusters Frozen Empire Denver Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

385

2091

18.41%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

445

2473

17.99%

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 2 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
2258	1023	24578	9.01%	13	125

1.084	Fast X T-0	8.13M
0.776	Black Adam T-0	5.90M
0.672	Transformers T-0	5.92M
1.118	GB Afterlife T-0	5.03M

0.329

Dune Part 2 T-0

3.95M

Seems like it's overperforming in pretty much all my markets. Probably don't have the greatest comps either. Excluding Fast X in Denver, and adjusting Afterlife up, I get an average of 5.76M... Likely will overshoot the actuals by a good amount. Adding Dune Part 2, because it overperformed at Drafthouse and Denver, brings the average comp down to 5.17M. And Dune Part 2 comps alone give 4.00M. Not gonna predict the final number, but just know that I think my markets are most likely overperforming by quite a bit.

el sid · March 21

To report at least a little bit: Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire had today for today 224 sold tickets in the AMC Fresh Meadows.

Comp: Ghostbusters: Afterlife (4.5M from previews) had also on Thursday for Thursday in this AMC 241 sold tickets.

So inflation-adjusted it's ca. on par. Of course that's only one theater but I'm optimistic that it will reach 40M+ OW.

Edited March 21 by el sid

vafrow · March 21

MTC4 system is down, which will nuke any walk-ups for Canada.

This happened a few weeks ago and the only purchase option was cash sales on site. You can't buy through the app or website right now.

Last time it was down, it was an hour or so. That's going to run right into early evening start times.

Poseidon · March 21

Civil War is a perfect example of a movie being released at the right time. I wouldn't be surprised at all, if this broke out really, really big.

MightyDargon · March 21

Civil War looks lame. No Cap OR Iron Man this time?!?

katnisscinnaplex · March 21

10 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold

Ghostbusters: FE T-0 Jax 6 84 174 608 11,886 5.12%

Phx 7 77 154 511 12,296 4.16%

Ral 8 76 78 408 9,321 4.38%

Total 21 237 406 1,527 33,503 4.56%

Immaculate T-0 Jax 5 10 8 33 907 3.64%

Phx 6 8 15 31 693 4.47%

Ral 7 13 12 41 934 4.39%

Total 18 31 35 105 2,534 4.14%

Late Night Devil T-0 Jax 3 10 15 27 478 5.65%

Phx 4 9 22 66 398 16.58%

Ral 3 7 10 21 480 4.38%

Total 10 26 47 114 1,356 8.41%

Ghostbusters T-0 adjusted* comps

- Haunted Mansion - 1.53x (4.42m)

- Shazam 2 - 1.21x (4.13m)

- Suicide Squad - 1.21x (5.24m)

- TMNT - 1.34x (5.17m)

- MI:7 - .674x (4.32m)

- Ghostbusters Afterlife - .852x (3.75m)

- Uncharted - 1.21x (4.6m)

- Indiana Jones - .635x (4.57m)

- Transformers - .67x (4.89m)

Size adjusted comps - 4.47m

Growth model forecast - 4.11m

A couple other out there comps

- Nope - .77x (5.04m)

- Morbius - .681x (3.98m)

Movie 3-day pace Prev 3-day Prev 3-day Last Day

Ghostbusters: FE 107.19% 32.70% 19.96% 36.22%

Haunted Mansion 101.41% 33.00% 22.22% 33.82%

Shazam 2 95.79% 19.31% 10.04% 51.08%

Suicide Squad 105.35% 31.12% 25.65% 32.25%

Turtles 111.73% 34.45% 25.57% 54.69%

M:I 7 103.41% 34.50% 23.32% 48.85%

Ghostbusters 95.85% - - 27.91%

Uncharted 86.09% 21.45% 24.11% 34.69%

Indiana Jones 76.13% 27.01% 14.74% 25.90%

Transformers 6 115.50% 29.21% - 43.40%

Alright, a couple of things to note. I finally added an inflation adjustment to all my comps. I used the annual ATP reported by the MPAA and adjusted to the current ATP of $10.78. It's probably going to be higher this year, but that won't be published until next year. It's a start. Second thing - I switched from Total (Preview + EA) comps to just preview, so a lot of the comps increased. I think this makes the pace table much more relevant since EA days skew sales jumps. As you can see, pace has been pretty in line with a lot of the comps. With one update left I'll leave my prediction at 4.25m

Immaculate T-0 adjusted comps

- Night House - 2.625x (723k)

- Men - .695x (301k)

- Firestarter - .709x (272k)

- Imaginary - .644x (467k)

- X - .471x (212k)

- Antlers - .89x (349k)

- The Invitation - .561x (445k)

- Infinity Pool - .85x

Size adjusted comps - 403k

Growth model forecast - 339k

Not much change from yesterday. I'll go with 350k until final update.

Late Night with the Devil T-0 adjusted comps

- Night House - 2.85x (785k)

- Immaculate - 1.086x

- Antlers - .966x (379k)

- Prey for the Devil - .82x (554k)

Size adjusted comps - 469k

Growth model forecast - 446k

Up to ~950 theaters listed for the weekend. Looks like 450k unless my areas are over-indexing.

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Ghostbusters: FE	1-Hr	Jax	6	84	276	884	11,886	7.44%
		Phx	7	78	60	571	12,340	4.63%
		Ral	8	76	111	519	9,321	5.57%
	Total		21	238	447	1,974	33,547	5.88%
Immaculate	1-Hr	Jax	5	10	28	61	907	6.73%
		Phx	6	8	14	45	693	6.49%
		Ral	7	13	36	77	934	8.24%
	Total		18	31	78	183	2,534	7.22%
Late Night Devil	1-Hr	Jax	3	10	37	64	478	13.39%
		Phx	4	9	28	94	398	23.62%
		Ral	3	7	31	52	480	10.83%
	Total		10	26	96	210	1,356	15.49%

Ghostbusters T-1 hr adjusted* comps

- Haunted Mansion - 1.408x (4.08m)

- Shazam 2 - missed

- Suicide Squad - 1.01x (4.38m)

- TMNT - 1.26x (4.85m)

- MI:7 - .625x (4m)

- Ghostbusters Afterlife - .828x (3.64m)

- Uncharted - missed

- Indiana Jones - missed

- Transformers - .556x (4.06m)

All adventure - 4.71m

All PG-13 - 4.16m

All 2pm previews - 4.52m

All movies - 4.31m

Size adjusted comps - 4.13m

Growth model forecast - 4.47m

A couple other out there comps

- Nope - .68x (4.45m)

- Morbius - .669x (3.9m)

I've been pretty set on 4.25m this week and with this latest update I don't see any reason to shift things now. The GB:A comp does bother me quite a bit, but I'm sticking with my prediction for better or worse.

Immaculate T-1 hr adjusted comps

- Night House - 1.97x (542k)

- Men - .782x (339k)

- Firestarter - .813x (312k)

- Imaginary - .693x (503k)

- X - .534x (240k)

- Antlers - .96x (378k)

- The Invitation - .6x (476k)

- Infinity Pool - .813x

All horror - 453k

All R horror - 441k

All 7pm previews - 367k

All movies - 399k

Size adjusted comps - 397k

Growth model forecast - 407k

Pretty good final update. I'll bump my prediction up to 400k

Late Night with the Devil T-1 hr adjusted comps

- Night House - 2.26x (622k)

- Immaculate - 1.148x

- Antlers - 1.105x (433k)

- Prey for the Devil - .925x (625k)

- Talk to Me - .327x (407k)

- X - .612x (276k)

All horror - 520k

All R horror - 506k

All 4pm previews - 455k

All movies - 458k

Size adjusted comps - 473k

Growth model forecast - 568k!

Growth has been really great this week. Hopefully the rest of the country matches this and it really does hit 450k. (Lack of theaters could hold it back a bit from reaching this)

Porthos · March 21

15 hours ago, Porthos said:

Quick and Dirty Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire Sacramento Report [T-1]

1513/29238 (5.17% sold) [+310 tickets] [208 showtimes]

0.72740x GBA at T-1                       [3.70m] [adj'ed for ATP hikes since 2021]
0.52480x Sonic 2 at T-1                 [3.28m]
0.47971x BA at T-1 [3.65m]
0.38646x Wick 4 at T-1                 [3.44m]
0.51673x Fast X at T-1                   [3.88m]
0.44085x RotB at T-1                    [3.88m]
0.77115x BOSS at T-1    [4.43m]
1.19510x Wonka at T-1                   [4.18m]
0.90382x Aqua 2 at T-1                 [4.07m]
------ [Bonus sub 4m comps]

1.32719x Blue Beetle at T-1            [4.38m]
1.06250x Haunted Mansion at T-1 [3.29m]
1.20175x KFP4 at T-1                      [4.57m]
1.41534x Shazam 2 at T-1              [4.81m]

=========

What's there to say that the comps above don't? Did pretty badly locally. Won't even call it a saving grace because, lol it certainly isn't, but I note that the average of BOSS/Wonka/Aqua 2 is... 4.23m. Which is actually pretty funny given my post I made earlier today about 4.25m being my target/expectation.

Anyway, I won't quite say it's "free falling" here locally. Will say that here in Sacramento, we respect Tomato Law*.

* apparently for this flick, at least.

Quick and Dirty Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire Sacramento Report [T-0] [FINAL] [3:50-4:20]

2197/29280 (7.50% sold) [+684 tickets] [209 showtimes]

*NOTE: All showtimes that started before 3:50pm were sampled at the start of the showing.

0.72413x GBA at T-0              [3.68m] [adj'ed for ATP hikes since 2021]
0.55606x Sonic 2 at T-0      [3.48m]
0.48887x BA at T-0                [3.72m]
0.40327x Wick 4 at T-0         [3.59m]
0.53299x Fast X at T-0          [4.00m]
0.44179x RotB at T-0             [3.89m]
0.81340x BOSS at T-0           [4.68m]
1.11241x Wonka at T-0           [3.89m]
0.83568x Aqua 2 at T-0        [3.76m]
----[Bonus Sub 4m Comps]

1.19924x BB at T-0                 [3.96m]
0.95480x Haunt Man at T-0 [2.96m]
0.93649x KFP4 at T-0            [3.56m]
1.32111x Shaz 2 at T-0            [4.49m]

=========

Meh. Just: Meh.

Comps are all over the place, but I don't like using films that did 7m+ to comp against ones that are gonna do under 5m.

Think I'll just project a flat 4m +/- .3m and call it a night. Probably under-performing locally, but I noticed it dropping in a few other markets, so who knows. But it's a Quick and Dirty so I can't say I care to overthink this.

TheFlatLannister · March 22

22 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA

G x K: The New Empire

Thursday

T-8

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

583

3715

117356

3.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

251

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

SELLOUTS

0

COMPS

T-8

(0.596x) of Dune 2 $5.54M

Comps average: $5.54M

Continues to grow at strong pace

FLORIDA

G x K: The New Empire

Thursday

T-7

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
583	3820	117356	3.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

105

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

SELLOUTS

0

COMPS

T-7

(0.581x) of Dune 2 $5.41M

Comps average: $5.41M

abracadabra1998 · March 22

On 3/17/2024 at 9:41 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (T-11):

Day: T-11 Shows New Seats Sold Seats % Sold

Totals: 17 theaters 87 128 480 15327 3.13

Type of tix: Total: New: Percentage:

PLFs: 396 110 82.5

MTC1: 299 66 62.29

Marcus: 64 21 13.33

Alamo: 38 8 7.92

Other chains: 79 33 16.46

Comps:

1.36x Ghostbusters Frozen Empire: ????

1.7x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $7.63 Million

1.12x Hunger Games BoSS: $6.42 Million

0.49x FNAF: $5.07 Million

0.71x MI7 (TUE): $4.95 Million

0.59x Indy 5: $4.28 Million

Rising and catching up to the other comps

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	93	248	728	16287	4.47

Type of tix:	Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:	587	191	80.63
MTC1:	429	130	58.93
Marcus:	113	49	15.52
Alamo:	50	12	6.87
Other chains:	136	57	18.68

Comps:

1.64x Ghostbusters Frozen Empire: ????

2.12x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $9.55 Million

1.01x Hunger Games BoSS: $5.81 Million

0.58x FNAF: $6.02 Million

0.81x MI7 (TUE): $5.67 Million

0.79x Indy 5: $5.65 Million

Funnily enough, looking at @Porthos and @katnisscinnaplex last posts, the Frozen Empire comp is at 1.66x and 1.63x in Sacto and Jax/Phx/Ral respectively. Thought that was a funny coincidence!

Edited March 22 by abracadabra1998

DAJK · March 22

4 hours ago, vafrow said:

MTC4 system is down, which will nuke any walk-ups for Canada.

This happened a few weeks ago and the only purchase option was cash sales on site. You can't buy through the app or website right now.

Last time it was down, it was an hour or so. That's going to run right into early evening start times.

Hahaha don’t worry I contacted some friends at head office of the company. A few emails had been sent out already, but it’s back up and running

Anyways, walkups pretty bad for Ghostbusters tonight. But pre-sales were pretty strong, so I’d say that 4-4.5M is still possible. But I’d likely rule out 40+ for the weekend if walkups continue at this pace.

misterpepp · March 22

On 3/20/2024 at 11:34 AM, misterpepp said:

Make that Tuesday the 26th now.

Alright, for anybody planning to track First Omen, there seems to be a lot of confusion about this with theater chains putting this up on different dates. There's a major chain that's putting their tickets on sale tomorrow (and there's apparently a theater or two doing 35mm presentations), meanwhile other chains are going up on the 26th.

None of it makes any sense, there doesn't seem to be any coordination on this title.

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
713	N/A	19117	3.73%	12	100

0.961	Fast X T-2	7.21M
0.775	Black Adam T-2	5.89M
0.643	Transformers T-2	5.65M
1.197	GB Afterlife T-2	5.39M

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Ghostbusters: FE	107.19%	32.70%	19.96%	36.22%
Haunted Mansion	101.41%	33.00%	22.22%	33.82%
Shazam 2	95.79%	19.31%	10.04%	51.08%
Suicide Squad	105.35%	31.12%	25.65%	32.25%
Turtles	111.73%	34.45%	25.57%	54.69%
M:I 7	103.41%	34.50%	23.32%	48.85%
Ghostbusters	95.85%	-	-	27.91%
Uncharted	86.09%	21.45%	24.11%	34.69%
Indiana Jones	76.13%	27.01%	14.74%	25.90%
Transformers 6	115.50%	29.21%	-	43.40%

Day: T-11	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	87	128	480	15327	3.13

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