The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[VanillaSkies]

42 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire MTC1

Previews(T-9) - 31692/563502 618371.36 2952 shows +2101

Friday - 28356/840030 530131.96 4403 shows +2592

 

Hopefully the final surge begins and it finishes really strong. I am expecting good IM looking at Thursday/Friday ratios. 

Keep in mind though that with Friday being a holiday it’s essentially a Saturday and therefore Saturday will likely be flat.

[misterpepp]

On 3/18/2024 at 7:36 PM, misterpepp said:

I've got First Omen going on sale March 29, but a pal of mine still thinks this could go on sale sooner. Let's call this one tentative for now.

 

Also @katnisscinnaplex thanks for updating the Google Drive spreadsheet! 

Make that Tuesday the 26th now.

[NashvilleGojira]

42 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

There's no centralized resource unfortunately. It gets hard as each tracker has some unique elements in their presentation. But, you're interpreting correctly in your assumptions above.

 

I think I speak for most trackers is that people don't mind if there's questions. We post here so other people can see the data. We want it to be as clear as possible.

 

Most tracking is done for the previews day. That's usually the most relevant, because then estimating weekend multipliers can help give a full weekend estimate. But sometimes people track Friday or other days (generally to help predict the multipliers) . Those will be labeled as such.

Thank you everyone, much appreciated, very helpful context

[kayumanggi]

 

[Porthos]

*logs in*

*sees initial reviews for GBFE*

*pours one out for @leoh  *

 

[vafrow]

8 minutes ago, Porthos said:

*logs in*

*sees initial reviews for GBFE*

*pours one out for @leoh  *

 

 

GB:FE walk-ups

 

[Porthos]

Just now, Porthos said:

*logs in*

*sees initial reviews for GBFE*

*pours one out for @leoh  *

 

 

Okay, notwithstanding that we haven't seen the reaction from any of the locals yet, think I'm gonna go public with my...

 

I don't do projections/predictions this far out (I leave that to wizards like @M37) and instead say my expectations are at around 4.25m for GBFE for previews as things currently stand, and have been for a while now (prob for over a week/last 10 days).  Somewhat rare for me to be more bearish than M37, but does occasionally happen.  In fact, I won't be surprised at a flat 4m, if sales just tank thanks to these reviews.

 

Yes, I've been open to it opening higher, but that's only because there was enough differences in the rollout between this and GBA (and frankly other recent releases) that I was allowing for a data pattern shift (or rather matching the data pattern of a v late acceleration).

 

But gotta tell ya.  If falling behind the pace of GBA fairly badly was Strike One, and not even hitting 4.5m lately against comps like RotB and trifecta of  Wonka/THG:BOSS/Aquabro 2 was Strike Two, then these reviews?  Well, stranger things have indeed happened with the GA ignoring Tomato Law, but for me...  Well let's say I'm expecting to see Strike Three when I see T-1 numbers locally.

 

At least it's enough for me to go public with this, at any rate (already shared 4.25 expectations with M37 privately a couple of days ago).  

 

In the end, there's been two competing points of data for me for about the last 10 days.  GBA and BOSS/Wonka/Aqaubro 2.  It doing pretty badly locally against GBA the biggest and most influential one (it sold *10* tickets last Fri at T-6 for Pete's sake!!!).  On the other hand, did have a recent spate of vaguely similarly-ish comps that were saying 4.5m was still a possibility.  

 

And you know what?  Might still be.  I'm always open to outliers happening.  I just don't expect them to.

 

Anyway, we'll see how the public reacts to this.  Maybe WOM from the base will be enough.  And maybe Sacramento really is just under-performing here.  But, again have to say, ain't expecting good news when I see T-1 and T-0.

[leoh]

49 minutes ago, Porthos said:

*logs in*

*sees initial reviews for GBFE*

*pours one out for @leoh  *

 

 

lol

 

Afterlife was like ~60% by critics while audience score is 94%.
 

That 2016 female reboot was 75% by critics but 49% by audience.

The classic Ghostbusters II (1989), beloved by audience, got only ~55% by critics.

 

So critics not liking a Ghostbusters movie usually means audience will love it 😏😉

 

 

 

Edited March 20 by leoh

[SchumacherFTW]

27 minutes ago, leoh said:

 

lol

 

Afterlife was like ~60% by critics while audience score is 94%.
 

That 2016 female reboot was 75% by critics but 49% by audience.

The classic Ghostbusters II (1989), beloved by audience, got only ~55% by critics.

 

So critics not liking a Ghostbusters movie usually means audience will love it 😏😉

 

 

 

That's the first time I've ever heard of GB2 being beloved by audiences. Those legs were ass for 89 even discounting Batman. 

[Eric Burnett]

Quorum Updates

Monkey Man T-16: 29.94%

Civil War T-23: 27.56%

Twisters T-121: 48.89%

Harold and the Purple Crayon T-135: 12.87%

The Wolf Man T-219: 18.41%

 

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire T-2: 62.43% Awareness

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 91% chance of 30M, 86% chance of 40M, 77% chance of 50M, 64% chance of 60M, 50% chance of 70M, 36% chance of 80M, 36% chance of 100M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 87% chance of 60M, 50% chance of 70M, 37% chance of 80M, 25% chance of 100M

 

Immaculate T-2: 27.39% Awareness

Final Awareness: 16% chance of 10M

Horror Awareness: 33% chance of 10M

 

Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire T-11: 54.83% Awareness

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 92% chance of 20M, 72% chance of 30M, 36% chance of 40M, 24% chance of 50M, 16% chance of 60M, 12% chance of 90M, 8% chance of 100M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 75% chance of 40M, 25% chance of 50M

 

Challengers T-37: 18.08% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 14% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 11% chance of 10M

 

Furiosa T-65: 26.36% Awareness

T-60 Awareness: 59% chance of 10M, 31% chance of 20M, 12% chance of 30M, 9% chance of 40M, 3% chance of 70M, 2% chance of 80M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 50% chance of 40M

 

Sight T-65: 15.29% Awareness

T-60 Awareness: 30% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 23% chance of 10M

[Eric Burnett]

Moderation

 

Not the Madame Web thread.

[ReturnOfTheBoxOffice]

1 hour ago, Eric Atreides said:

Quorum Updates

Monkey Man T-16: 29.94%

Civil War T-23: 27.56%

Twisters T-121: 48.89%

Harold and the Purple Crayon T-135: 12.87%

The Wolf Man T-219: 18.41%

 

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire T-2: 62.43% Awareness

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 91% chance of 30M, 86% chance of 40M, 77% chance of 50M, 64% chance of 60M, 50% chance of 70M, 36% chance of 80M, 36% chance of 100M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 87% chance of 60M, 50% chance of 70M, 37% chance of 80M, 25% chance of 100M

 

Immaculate T-2: 27.39% Awareness

Final Awareness: 16% chance of 10M

Horror Awareness: 33% chance of 10M

 

Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire T-11: 54.83% Awareness

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 92% chance of 20M, 72% chance of 30M, 36% chance of 40M, 24% chance of 50M, 16% chance of 60M, 12% chance of 90M, 8% chance of 100M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 75% chance of 40M, 25% chance of 50M

 

Challengers T-37: 18.08% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 14% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 11% chance of 10M

 

Furiosa T-65: 26.36% Awareness

T-60 Awareness: 59% chance of 10M, 31% chance of 20M, 12% chance of 30M, 9% chance of 40M, 3% chance of 70M, 2% chance of 80M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 50% chance of 40M

 

Sight T-65: 15.29% Awareness

T-60 Awareness: 30% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 23% chance of 10M

What does this mean? Why does Ghostbusters look like it’s going to make so much more than GxK according to this?

[kayumanggi]

 

[jeffthehat]

On 3/18/2024 at 1:41 PM, jeffthehat said:

Malco

Ghostbusters Frozen Empire T-3

Day	Sales	Seats	Shows
Thu	719	16625	86
Fri	890	22996	120

Thursday Comps

0.50x Dune 2 T-3 = $5.0m

0.83x Marvels T-3 (10 theaters) = $5.5m

0.88x HG BoSS T-3 (10 theaters) = $5.1m

1.75x Wonka T-3 (10 theaters) = $6.1m

Friday Comp

0.43x Dune 2 T-4 = $8.8m

0.91x Marvels T-4 (10 theaters) = $13.6m

0.95x HG BoSS t-4 (10 theaters) = $12.6m

 

THU AVG = $5.43m

FRI AVG = $11.66m

Malco

Ghostbusters Frozen Empire T-1

Day	Sales	Seats	Shows
Thu	975	16733	88

Thursday Comps

0.53x Dune 2 T-1 = $5.3m

0.90x Marvels T-1 (10 theaters) = $5.9m

0.93x HG BoSS T-1 (10 theaters) = $5.4m

2.00x Wonka T-1 (10 theaters) = $7.2m

 

THU AVG = 5.95m

---

Dune 2 comp adjusted -10% for ATP and 9.3m previews gives $4.4m. Probably the most accurate signal here

 

Edited March 20 by jeffthehat

[jeffthehat]

Malco

Godzilla X Kong: New Empire T-8

Day	Sales	Seats	Shows
Thu	975	16733	88

Comps

1.44x Ghostbusters FE = ??

0.58x Dune 2 = $5.8m

Edited March 20 by jeffthehat

[jeffthehat]

On 3/17/2024 at 3:59 PM, jeffthehat said:

Indiana

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire T-11

Sales	Seats	Shows
776	27393	161

Comps

0.60x Dune 2 T-11 = $6.0m

0.95x Ghostbusters FE T-11 = ??

 

Indiana

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire T-8

Sales	Seats	Shows
953	28352	163

Comps

0.61x Dune 2 T-8 = $6.1m

0.96x Ghostbusters FE T-8 = ??

Edited March 20 by jeffthehat

[jeffthehat]

On 3/17/2024 at 3:49 PM, jeffthehat said:

Indiana

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire T-4

Sales	Seats	Shows
1250	28360	152

Comp

0.64x Dune: Part Two T-4 = $6.4m

---

Had issues getting sales this week, fixed for now

Indiana

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire T-1

Sales	Seats	Shows
1804	33930	194

Comp

0.59x Dune: Part Two T-1 = $5.9m

---

Guessing this is doing well in midwest/south based on what I have, not certain though. Prob not good that it's dropping against Dune 2 in the final days. 

 

Edited March 20 by jeffthehat

[abracadabra1998]

20 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	154	243	961	24689	3.89

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		653	118	67.95
MTC1:		452	104	47.03
Marcus:		119	30	12.38
Alamo:		115	12	11.97
Other chains:		275	97	28.62

 

Comps:

1.88x Wonka: $6.6 Million

0.66x BoSS: $3.82 Million

2.25x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $6.98 Million

0.55x Indy 5: $3.99 Million

0.53x MI7 (TUE): $3.73 Million

 

Average: $5.02 Million

 

Pulled numbers quite a bit later than usual, so the numbers will be a little inflated. Still quite good and again rose against all comps; I would give more weight to the sequels in my comps versus the other ones, but MTC1 being under 50% cannot be ignored. Quite good numbers in smaller and local chains

 

Minneapolis St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	156	158	1119	25193	4.44

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		742	89	66.31
MTC1:		488	36	43.61
Marcus:		163	44	14.57
Alamo:		118	3	10.55
Other chains:		350	75	31.28

 

 

Growth Rate (%):
1-Day:	16.44
3-Day:	89.34

 

Comps (3-day growth rates in parentheses):

1.8x Wonka: $6.31 Million (69%)

0.63x BoSS: $3.64 Million (67%)

1.82x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $5.66 Million (115%)

0.55x Indy 5: $3.97 Million (65%)

0.48x MI7 (TUE): $3.34 Million (69%)

 

Average: $4.58 Million

 

Dropped against all comps. Some of that has to do with pulling the numbers late yesterday, really hard to tell how much of it is that versus a bad final day/complete lack of review bump. This is obviously riding the wave between my established IP comps versus the non-sequel stuff, but I think the best comp out of any I have is Indy (I was very surprised to learn just how old Afterlife skewed, per Deadline's last article). So I'll take the average, adjust it down with Indy in mind and go with $4.3 Million, +/- 0.3. Excited to add a family-oriented, live-action movie to my collection, I feel like I don't have very many of those.

[abracadabra1998]

On 3/18/2024 at 5:55 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Immaculate (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	24	13	49	1804	2.72

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		40	11	81.63
Marcus:		0	0	0
Alamo:		8	1	16.33
Other chains:		1	1	2.04

 

Comps:

0.65x Imaginary: $475k

0.48x Thanksgiving: $475k

0.37x Talk To Me (w/ EA): $455k

0.71x Last Voyage of Demeter: $535k

1.36x It Lives Inside: Not reported (1.36x of FRI + previews = $1.43 Million)

 

Average (sans It Lives Inside): $485k

 

Also rose against all comps! Movie-buying day in the twin cities I guess

 

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Immaculate (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	30	36	85	2374	3.58

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		70	30	82.35
Marcus:		0	0	0
Alamo:		9	1	10.59
Other chains:		6	5	7.06

 

Growth Rate (%):
1-Day:	N/A
3-Day:	136.11

 

Comps (3-day growth rates in parentheses):

0.81x Imaginary: $585k (81%)

0.48x Thanksgiving: $480k (89%)

0.28x Talk To Me (w/ EA): $345k (145%)

0.62x Last Voyage of Demeter: $460k (130%)

1.6x It Lives Inside: Not reported (1.36x of FRI + previews = $1.68 Million)

 

Average (sans It Lives Inside): $470k

 

Imaginary being PG-13 and Talk To Me having EA kind of messes with those comps a bit, so I'll put more weight on the other ones. A24 horror can tend to be more frontloaded than these more accessible horror types though so I'll go with $450k, +/- 50.

[emoviefan]

3 hours ago, ReturnOfTheBoxOffice said:

What does this mean? Why does Ghostbusters look like it’s going to make so much more than GxK according to this?

It does not mean much of anything. There is some sort of formula for the Qurom metrics. It's uneven at best.to being reliable in any way.  Presales are a much better indicator than this is.