The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[vafrow]

I did a quick count for Civil War in my area (western GTA). 

 

T-1 count of 133. I usually do my T-1 count first thing in the morning, so it might be understating a bit.

 

0.898x GBFE for $4.2M

0.760x Wonka for $2.7

0.316x HG: BoSS for $1.8M

0.751x Monkey Man for $1.1M

Average: $2.5M

 

 

I think the American centric aspect of this film means that this market isn't the best indicator. And I don't have the best comps. But, that's a range that doesn't look far off from what we're seeing elsewhere. 

 

[Pinacolada]

4 hours ago, VanillaSkies said:

FWIW, Lionsgate just put out a banger upcoming slate at CinemaCon today. Lots of potential hits coming up in the next 12-18 months. 

I REALLY hope Good Fortune with Aziz Ansari, Keanu, and Seth Rogen can be a big comedy hit. The premise sounds really fun, good cast. Fingers crossed for that one

[abracadabra1998]

On 4/9/2024 at 9:47 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Civil War (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 25 theaters	115	100	624	18251	3.42

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		531	72	85.1
MTC1:		362	46	58.01
Alamo:		95	14	15.22
Other chains:		167	40	26.76

(Chart for Thursday only)

 

Comps (Thursday only):

2x Monkey Man: $2.8 Million

3.89x Iron Claw: $2.6 Million (17 theaters)

0.99x Napoleon (TUE): $2.98 Million (17 theaters)

1.6x The Creator (THU): $2.16 Million (17 theaters)

0.36x MI7 (TUE): $2.51 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $2.61 Million

 

Pretty good update, this is headed the right direction for sure. My one concern is that Creator comp, and how walk-ups for this might mirror that more than something like MI7 or Napoleon. Sadly this is the last day I tracked the Creator, so I will be blind to how that unfolds. Still feeling good about this, and hoping the pace keeps up and this could climb up to something around 2.75 for previews

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Civil War (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 25 theaters	113	207	831	18201	4.57

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		672	141	80.87
MTC1:		438	76	52.71
Alamo:		111	16	13.36
Other chains:		282	115	33.94

 

Comps (Thursday only):

2.05x Monkey Man: $2.87 Million

4.23x Iron Claw: $2.83 Million (17 theaters)

0.87x Napoleon (TUE): $2.62 Million (17 theaters)

0.36x MI7 (TUE): $2.5 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $2.71 Million

 

Keep in mind that Napoleon and MI7 ATP are lower due to Tuesday discounts, so the actual average is higher than this. I hate being just another voice shouting the same tune, but with the way it's been growing 3 does look like the number right now. Gonna stay true to these numbers however and go with $2.8 Million, +/- 0.3 as my final prediction.

[HummingLemon496]

I predict Civil War's previews will be exactly 1/10th of Civil War's previews 

[crazymoviekid]

Civil War NJ Sales:

 

Thursday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 11 Tickets

Theater 2: 12 Tickets

 

Argylle: $3.55M

Beekeeper: $1.30M

Napoleon: $1.23M

Knock at the Cabin: $1.96M

The Menu: $1.15M

The Northman: $1.48M

 

Decent sales. Range kinda wide. Still best guess $1.5M-$2M

 

Friday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 3 Tickets

Theater 2: 24 Tickets

 

Argylle: $4.97M

Beekeeper: $4.21M

Napoleon: $1.09M

Knock at the Cabin: $3.56M

The Menu: $2.12M

The Northman: $2.13M

 

Decent day. Still feeling $3.5M-$4M unless my area is just really underperforming.

 

[Relevation]

TWO THEATER MN PRESALES TRACK (T-1/0)

04/11/24

Civil War - 126 tickets sold

 

COMPS

Civil War

0.35x of Dune: Part Two ($3.20M)

2.42x of Argylle ($4.12M)

2.68x of Monkey Man ($3.75M)

AVERAGE: $3.69M

 

Civil War clearly running hot here, managed to clear $3M even against the Dune comp when one of my theaters has a 70mm screen and I used the lower $9.25M figure as the preview number. It sold more tickets here than Ghostbusters and KFP4, but those likely had better T-0s than this will have. Overall, considering all the comps I used had mid-bad walkups and Civil War is having a great last week judging by other trackers, gonna set my prediction at $3.75M Thu +/- $0.6M, and probably an OW of something like $25-30M.

[keysersoze123]

22 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Civil War MTC1

Previews(T-2) - 30965/398149 600910.07 2084 shows +5597

Friday - 26018/699115 491670.30 3556 shows +5669

 

Really strong day for Civil War. This is definitely not another Monkey King. Its probably going for 3m thursday at this point. 

Civil War MTC1

Previews(T-1) - 37355/398875 715288.13 2087 shows +6390

Friday - 32781/704452 610358.39 3581 shows +6763

 

There was not that much of an acceleration today. I dont think this movie will over index as much as Monkey King but 35% MTC1 ratio means it needs to have good walkups to hit 3m. Let us see how things go tomorrow.  

[Boxofficerules]

It feels like there is little buzz on the upcoming horror movies Abigail, Tarot and The Strangers.

[vafrow]

On 4/10/2024 at 6:10 AM, vafrow said:

 

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, D2, T-30 Thursday previews and Wednesday EA shows, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 13

New Sales: 9

Growth: 225%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 16

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 0.8

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 1/3

Early Evening: 12/7

Late Evening: 0/6

 

Sales by Format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 1/7

IMAX: 7/6

VIP: 5/3

 

EA shows 

Sales: 12

Theatres: 4

Showtimes: 4

New Sales: 1

 

It seemed to do a lot better on day 2, but still nothing huge. I'll probably take some time on the weekend to try and figure out a comp strategy.

 

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, T-29 Thursday previews and Wednesday EA shows, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 14

New Sales: 1

Growth: 8%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 16

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 0.9

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 1/3

Early Evening: 13/7

Late Evening: 0/6

 

Sales by Format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 1/7

IMAX: 8/6

VIP: 5/3

 

EA shows 

Sales: 12

Theatres: 4

Showtimes: 4

New Sales: 0

 

The initial rush seems to be over. Not the greatest baseline, but we're still really far out.

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Civil War	T-1	Jax	6	47	45	201	7,476	2.69%
		Phx	6	38	44	168	5,966	2.82%
		Ral	8	25	41	139	3,136	4.43%
	Total		20	110	130	508	16,578	3.06%
Sting	T-1	Jax	4	5	1	5	313	1.60%
		Phx	5	8	0	4	584	0.68%
		Ral	2	3	0	0	166	0.00%
	Total		11	16	1	9	1,063	0.85%
Suga	T-0	Jax	3	7	4	157	1,574	9.97%
		Phx	4	6	4	193	1,066	18.11%
		Ral	5	6	0	153	846	18.09%
	Total		12	19	8	503	3,486	14.43%

 

Civil War T-1 adjusted comps

 - NTTD - missed

 - Elvis - .591x (2.28m)

 - Equalizer 3 - .88x (3.36m)

 - Free Guy - 1.26x (2.87m)

 - M:I 7 - .334x (2.14m)

 - Meg 2 - 1.11x (3.76m)

 - Black Phone - 1.18x (3.72m)

 - Creed III - .582x (2.59m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 3.21m

 

Feeling pretty good about 3m+ as well.  

 

*No EA shows in the theaters I track

 

Suga T-0 adjusted comps

 - Heard the Bells - 1.014x (946k)

 - One Piece - .541x (940k)

 - Left Behind - 1.108x (798k)

 - Dragon Ball - .274x (1.21m)

 - Demon Slayer 2 - .186x (924k)

 

No comps small enough for Sting

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Civil War	T-0	Jax	6	47	74	275	7,476	3.68%
		Phx	6	38	75	243	5,966	4.07%
		Ral	8	25	42	181	3,136	5.77%
	Total		20	110	191	699	16,578	4.22%
Sting	T-0	Jax	4	5	2	7	313	2.24%
		Phx	5	8	3	7	584	1.20%
		Ral	2	3	2	2	166	1.20%
	Total		11	16	7	16	1,063	1.51%

 

Civil War T-0 adjusted comps

 - NTTD - .311x (1.68m)

 - Elvis - .606x (2.34m)

 - Equalizer 3 - .86x (3.38m)

 - Free Guy - 1.23x (2.79m)

 - M:I 7 - .309x (1.98m)

 - Meg 2 - 1.04x (3.52m)

 - Black Phone - 1.03x (3.25m)

 - Creed III - .541x (2.41m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 3.1m

 

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Civil War	134.56%	34.90%	38.66%	37.60%
Elvis	-	-	21.49%	34.07%
Equalizer 3	116.89%	32.44%	38.89%	40.70%
Free Guy	87.87%	33.44%	51.23%	41.83%
M:I 7	103.41%	34.50%	23.32%	48.85%
Meg 2	202.24%	52.91%	-	47.16%
Black Phone	-	-	26.67%	57.58%
Creed III	141.04%	38.62%	33.43%	48.00%

 

Not quite the level of growth that I was hoping for yesterday.  If walkups aren't good, this could get down into the 2.5m range (before adding EA).  Most of the comps did between 10% and 25% better on final update than T-0 (M:I 7 had a smaller increase).  If it matches the +37% (~960 final), the size adjusted average drops to 2.7m.  It'll need a +60% to keep the average above 3m (and even then the growth model would still give a 2.61m prediction).  For now I'll keep my expectations around 2.5m and hope for the best.

 

*No EA shows in the theaters I track.  All comps are excluding EA sales & gross where applicable

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Abigail	T-8	Jax	5	17	0	8	2,346	0.34%
		Phx	6	15	1	10	2,900	0.34%
		Ral	8	17	3	14	2,035	0.69%
	Total		19	49	4	32	7,281	0.44%
Spy x Family	T-8	Jax	5	16	6	66	1,658	3.98%
		Phx	6	18	6	67	3,928	1.71%
		Ral	8	22	3	59	2,036	2.90%
	Total		19	56	15	192	7,622	2.52%
Ungentlemanly	T-8	Jax	5	12	0	10	1,274	0.78%
		Phx	6	12	0	17	1,338	1.27%
		Ral	8	12	-1	7	1,308	0.54%
	Total		19	36	-1	34	3,920	0.87%
Ungentlemanly (EA)	T-3	Jax	3	4	9	109	383	28.46%
		Phx	4	5	12	77	602	12.79%
		Ral	4	4	9	116	467	24.84%
	Total		11	13	30	302	1,452	20.80%

 

Spy x Family T-8 adjusted comps

 - Dragon Ball - .233x (1.03m)

 - JJK:0 - missed

 - Demon Slayer 2 - .187x (930k)

 - One PIece - .411x (714k)

 

Ministry of Ungentlemanly... T-3 adjusted comps (EA)

- NTTD (EA) - 1.184x (1.38m)

 - Top Gun 2 (EA) - .199x (767k)

 - Barbie (EA) - .48x (528k)

 - M:I 7 (EA) - .534x (525k)

 - TMNT (EA) - .477x (835k)

 - Transformers (EA) - .529x (793k)

 

Size adjusted average - 944k

 

EA had new sales in almost all shows

 

Ministry of Ungentlemanly... T-8 adjusted comps (Previews)

 - Snake Eyes - .586x (713k)

 - Equalizer 3 - .174x (543k)

 - Turtles - .116x (391k)

 

Abigail T-8 comps

 - Talk to Me - .865x (1.08m)

 - M3GAN - missed

 - Insidious 5 - .283x (1.42m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Abigail	T-7	Jax	5	17	2	10	2,346	0.43%
		Phx	6	15	3	13	2,900	0.45%
		Ral	8	17	0	14	2,035	0.69%
	Total		19	49	5	37	7,281	0.51%
Spy x Family	T-7	Jax	5	16	7	73	1,658	4.40%
		Phx	6	18	11	78	3,928	1.99%
		Ral	8	22	1	60	2,036	2.95%
	Total		19	56	19	211	7,622	2.77%
Ungentlemanly	T-7	Jax	5	12	2	12	1,274	0.94%
		Phx	6	12	2	19	1,338	1.42%
		Ral	8	12	4	11	1,308	0.84%
	Total		19	36	8	42	3,920	1.07%
Ungentlemanly (EA)	T-2	Jax	3	4	5	114	383	29.77%
		Phx	5	6	20	97	665	14.59%
		Ral	4	4	2	118	467	25.27%
	Total		12	14	27	329	1,515	21.72%

 

Spy x Family T-7 adjusted comps

 - Dragon Ball - .241x (1.06m)

 - JJK:0 - missed

 - Demon Slayer 2 - .188x (934k)

 - One PIece - .431x (748k)

 

Ministry of Ungentlemanly... T-2 adjusted comps (EA)

- NTTD (EA) - missed

 - Top Gun 2 (EA) - .205x (792k)

 - Barbie (EA) - .503x (563k)

 - M:I 7 (EA) - .509x (501k)

 - TMNT (EA) - .471x (825k)

 - Transformers (EA) - .522x (783k)

 

Size adjusted average - 551k (NTTD brings the average up)

 

EA had new sales in almost all shows

 

Ministry of Ungentlemanly... T-7 adjusted comps (Previews)

 - Snake Eyes - .525x (639k)

 - Equalizer 3 - .19x (592k)

 - Turtles - .136x (462k)

 

Abigail T-7 comps

 - Talk to Me - .822x (1.02m)

 - M3GAN - missed

 - Insidious 5 - .27x (1.35m)

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Unsung Hero (EA)	T-14	Jax	5	5	107	107	644	16.61%
		Phx	5	7	221	221	725	30.48%
		Ral	7	8	195	195	730	26.71%
	Total		17	20	523	523	2,099	24.92%

 

T-14 comps

 - Jesus Revolution (EA) - .508x (1.2m)

 

It looks like tickets for previews just went on sale today, so I'll check those out tomorrow.  EA is looking really good with a lot of group sales already out there.

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Unsung Hero	T-14	Jax	4	6	21	21	791	2.65%
		Phx	5	10	12	12	1,992	0.60%
		Ral	6	9	9	9	832	1.08%
	Total		15	25	42	42	3,615	1.16%
Unsung Hero (EA)	T-13	Jax	5	5	35	142	644	22.05%
		Phx	5	7	22	243	725	33.52%
		Ral	7	8	19	214	730	29.32%
	Total		17	20	76	599	2,099	28.54%

 

T-14 (Total) comps

 - Jesus Revolution (Total) - .56x (1.85m)

 - Sound of Freedom - .789x (4.1m)

 - Left Behind - 7.914x (4.83m)

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 4/4/2024 at 8:55 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Fall Guy	T-28	Jax	5	34	2	15	5,746	0.26%
		Phx	6	17	3	28	3,404	0.82%
		Ral	8	34	2	37	5,150	0.72%
	Total		19	85	7	80	14,300	0.56%
Fall Guy (EA)	T-27	Jax	5	10	0	4	2,007	0.20%
		Phx	1	2	0	8	618	1.29%
		Ral	2	2	0	10	412	2.43%
	Total		8	14	0	22	3,037	0.72%

 

Fall Guy (Total) T-28 adjusted comps

 - Nope - .586x (3.15m)

 - Oppenheimer - .19x (1.6m)

 - Exorcist 6 - 2.17x (5.07m)

 - Scream VI - .47x (2.36m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 3.091x (4.48m)

 

*Just throwing everything I have out there

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Fall Guy	T-21	Jax	5	34	-2	12	5,746	0.21%
		Phx	6	19	-3	32	3,556	0.90%
		Ral	8	34	0	36	5,150	0.70%
	Total		19	87	-5	80	14,452	0.55%
Fall Guy (EA)	T-20	Jax	5	10	4	24	2,007	1.20%
		Phx	1	2	0	13	618	2.10%
		Ral	2	2	0	11	412	2.67%
	Total		8	14	4	48	3,037	1.58%

 

Fall Guy (Total) T-21 adjusted comps

 - F9 - .471x (3.54m)

 - M:I 7 (Total) - .255x (2.24m)

 - John Wick 4 - .366x (3.25m)

 - Monkey Man - 3.368x (5.56m)

 - Glass Onion - .593x (1.43m)

 

Size adjusted average - 3.38m

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 4/4/2024 at 9:16 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Kingdom of Apes	T-35	Jax	5	25	1	21	4,936	0.43%
		Phx	1	6	3	34	1,854	1.83%
		Ral	2	6	0	12	1,236	0.97%
	Total		8	37	4	67	8,026	0.83%
Kingdom of Apes (EA)	T-34	Jax	5	9	2	21	1,802	1.17%
		Phx	1	2	1	13	618	2.10%
		Ral	2	2	2	12	412	2.91%
	Total		8	13	5	46	2,832	1.62%

 

T-35 adjusted comps

 - Nope - .769x (5.04m)

 - Oppenheimer - .302x (3.11m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Kingdom of Apes	T-28	Jax	5	47	4	30	8,044	0.37%
		Phx	5	34	3	49	7,467	0.66%
		Ral	7	40	3	40	6,071	0.66%
	Total		17	121	10	119	21,582	0.55%
Kingdom of Apes (EA)	T-27	Jax	5	9	11	59	1,802	3.27%
		Phx	1	2	0	20	618	3.24%
		Ral	2	2	5	29	412	7.04%
	Total		8	13	16	108	2,832	3.81%

 

T-28 (Total) adjusted comps

 - Nope - 1.305x (8.55m)

 - Oppenheimer - .423x (4.35m)

 - Fall Guys (Total) - 2.225x

 - Scream VI - 1.046x (6.32m)

[emoviefan]

1 hour ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Fall Guy	T-21	Jax	5	34	-2	12	5,746	0.21%
		Phx	6	19	-3	32	3,556	0.90%
		Ral	8	34	0	36	5,150	0.70%
	Total		19	87	-5	80	14,452	0.55%
Fall Guy (EA)	T-20	Jax	5	10	4	24	2,007	1.20%
		Phx	1	2	0	13	618	2.10%
		Ral	2	2	0	11	412	2.67%
	Total		8	14	4	48	3,037	1.58%

 

Fall Guy (Total) T-21 adjusted comps

 - F9 - .471x (3.54m)

 - M:I 7 (Total) - .255x (2.24m)

 - John Wick 4 - .366x (3.25m)

 - Monkey Man - 3.368x (5.56m)

 - Glass Onion - .593x (1.43m)

 

Size adjusted average - 3.38m

Seems decent. Still feel like this will be a late pre sale/Walkup heavy movie. Lost City and Bullet train would be the best comps probably but I assume the comps for those are not available yet.

[emoviefan]

1 hour ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Kingdom of Apes	T-28	Jax	5	47	4	30	8,044	0.37%
		Phx	5	34	3	49	7,467	0.66%
		Ral	7	40	3	40	6,071	0.66%
	Total		17	121	10	119	21,582	0.55%
Kingdom of Apes (EA)	T-27	Jax	5	9	11	59	1,802	3.27%
		Phx	1	2	0	20	618	3.24%
		Ral	2	2	5	29	412	7.04%
	Total		8	13	16	108	2,832	3.81%

 

T-28 (Total) adjusted comps

 - Nope - 1.305x (8.55m)

 - Oppenheimer - .423x (4.35m)

 - Fall Guys (Total) - 2.225x

 - Scream VI - 1.046x (6.32m)

Not too shabby. Still early and room to improve if the buzz on the quality is good. 

[el sid]

New Thursday numbers later today. Just for completeness:

 

Civil War, counted yesterday for Thursday, had 1.130 sold tickets (in 7 theaters).

Up quite good 37% since Monday.

 

Comps (all counted on Wednesday of the release week for Thursday; I did not count The Creator on Wednesday, but today I have comparison numbers again): BT (4.6M from previews) had 1.238 sold tickets = 4.2M.

Nope (6.4M) had 2.839 sold tickets = 2.55M.

Argylle (1.7M) had 847 sold tickets = 2.25M.

And Monkey Man (1.4M) had 933 sold tickets = 1.7M.

Average: 2.7M.

On Monday it were 2.5M so it went a bit up.

 

Edited April 11 by el sid

[katnisscinnaplex]

Santikos Tracking

 

Civil War (Previews)

346/8,331

 

Comps

 - Bullet Train - .751x (2.51m)

 - Plane - 3.68x (2.3m)

 - Creed III - .329x (1.79m)

 - Monkey Man - 3.46x (4.84m)

 

 

Civil War (Fri)

386/14,358

 

Comps

 - Bullet Train - 1.066x (8.79m)

 - Monkey Man - 3.328x (9.26m)

[el sid]

Civil War, also counted yesterday for Friday, had 1.360 sold tickets (in 7 theaters).

Up decent 34.5% since Monday.

 

Comps (all counted on Wednesday of the release week for Friday): BT (8M true Friday) had 1.000 sold tickets = 10.9M true Friday for CW.

Nope (13.1M) had 2.408 sold tickets = 7.4M.

And Monkey Man (2.8M) had 807 = 4.7M.

Average: 7.65M true Friday. 

Still the big problem is the unevenness. But at least CW is now comfortable in front of Monkey Man.

[LonePirate]

The Regal IMAX near me has sold 28 tickets so far for tonight’s (Thursday) 7pm showing of Civil War.