The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[TalismanRing]

NYC LOCAL REGAL (Thur Previews)

 

INSIDE OUT 2: 284/3499  (12 showings)

 

COMPS

Garfield: $10.38m
Ruby Gillman: $15.84m
Elementals: $14.5m
Little Mermaid: $16.07m
Sonic 2: $14.79m

 

Avg: $14.32m

[kayumanggi]

 

[kayumanggi]

They are still not on the 100M train. 

[Youngstar]

11 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

They are still not on the 100M train. 

The fact that tracking is upped at all is saying a lot ^^

[jeffthehat]

22 hours ago, jeffthehat said:

Indiana

Inside Out 2 T-1

Sales	Seats	Shows
2763	41092	270

TC = 27

Comps

1.53x Ghostbusters FE T-1 = $7.2m

5.56x IF T-1 = $10.0m

1.19x Godzilla x Kong NE T-1 = $11.9m

3.41x Kung Fu Panda 4 T-1 = $13.0m

 

AVG = $10.53m

---

Really good pace down the home stretch. The average of IF/KFP4 has been holding steady, so wouldn't shock me if this ends up playing like a normal family movie. 

Indiana

Inside Out 2 T-0

Sales	Seats	Shows
4516	43594	280

TC = 27

Comp

7.10x IF T-0 = $12.8m

[todos]

How are the walkups?

[UnapologeticKenny]

They are just being more cautions after all those movies 'under performed' based on their projections. 90M is safer to give the movie positive headlines after the weekend is done.

[keysersoze123]

On 6/11/2024 at 8:54 AM, keysersoze123 said:

Unlike say Panda 4 or Elemental, Inside Out 2 has all big Imax/PLF. so its ATP is higher than all recent animation movies. Even Minions 2 which had lower ATP overall. But Minions under indexed at MTC1 and we have to see what happens to Inside Out. 

 

Inside Out 2 MTC2

Previews - 34539/436678 483719.22 3175 shows

Friday - 51097/651507 621370.65 4461 shows

 

Friday I ran early yesterday(took until 4PM) and Previews ran from that till late night 🙂 Pace for previews is similar to MTC1 at this point. Its going to finish extremely strong over here

Inside Out 2 MTC2 Previews (T-1) - 75212/628044 1026211.69 5087 shows

 

I had let it run overnight. Thinking around 175K finish and 2.3m ish at MTC2. Super strong over here as well. 

[Pinacolada]

2 hours ago, kayumanggi said:

 

Knew it.

 

Giving The Bikeriders 500 less theaters than Lisa Frankenstein is insane

[Insomnia]

22 minutes ago, Pinacolada said:

Knew it.

 

Giving The Bikeriders 500 less theaters than Lisa Frankenstein is insane

In fairness, February was an atrocious month. January you can let slide - it's the most dead month of the year for a reason and theatres are generally content coming right off all the holiday business - but things generally ramp up in February. This year theatres were begging for anything new.

[Eric is Quiet]

 

[keysersoze123]

At MTC1 IO2 is at 157480/773757 2662433.53 at 3PM PST. I am thinking 225K finish could happen with good walkups. That could get 12m previews in play(I am not predicting it for now). But so far the growth has been excellent. its behaving like Minions for sure. 

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Inside Out 2 MTC2 Previews (T-1) - 75212/628044 1026211.69 5087 shows

 

I had let it run overnight. Thinking around 175K finish and 2.3m ish at MTC2. Super strong over here as well. 

If MTC 1 hit 200K, MTC2 will likely be 190K type.

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

At MTC1 IO2 is at 157480/773757 2662433.53 at 3PM PST. I am thinking 225K finish could happen with good walkups. That could get 12m previews in play(I am not predicting it for now). But so far the growth has been excellent. its behaving like Minions for sure. 

Easy peasy 12.5M if it hit 225K. I don't think it can though. Right?

 

Edit: Hmm. 205K won't be surprising I guess.

Edited June 13 by charlie Jatinder

[keysersoze123]

I wonder how other animation sequels will behave. I expect Zoo 2 to be similar to IO2 in that it should be backloaded rather than big presales early on. But Frozen 3 or Toy Story 5 will start way bigger than these movies. Shrek 5 also. 

[Tinalera]

Deadpool Wolverine

Thurs July 24 Fri July 25 (Taken June 12)

Vancouver and Calgary Canada

 

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Vancouver	Thurs	3	24	1025	3184	4209	0.2435
	Fri	3	29	440	4715	5155	0.0853
		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Calgary	Thurs	4	26	889	3839	4728	0.1880
	Fri	4	24	359	2235	2594	0.1383

[charlie Jatinder]

6 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I wonder how other animation sequels will behave. I expect Zoo 2 to be similar to IO2 in that it should be backloaded rather than big presales early on. But Frozen 3 or Toy Story 5 will start way bigger than these movies. Shrek 5 also. 

Let's see Moana 2 first, which is bigger than Frozen on Disney +.

[Porthos]

4 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Inside Out 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY REPORT) [11:40am - 12:25pm]

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	257	27040	32945	5905	17.92%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Last Night

1120

 

T-0 (Mid-Day) Comps

	%		Sold Since Last Night	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2 [11:40-12:05]	181.86		364	3247		0/126	12668/15915	20.40%		3951	149.46%		11.37m
Ltyear [12:00-12:55]	179.54		578	3289		1/196	19452/22741	14.46%		4091	144.34%		9.34m
Min 2 [11:40-12:20]	117.63		1000	5020		0/215	25228/30248	16.60%		6591	89.59%		12.65m
Element										1910	309.16%
Barbie [11:30-12:10]	55.80		1130	10583		3/271	19233/29816	35.49%		12077	48.89%		12.61m
Wonka [11:45-12:10]	390.03		248	1514		0/211	25255/26769	5.66%		1975	298.99%		13.65m
GBFE [11:35-12:10]	335.89		245	1758		0/208	27480/29238	6.01%		2197	268.78%		15.79m
KFP4										2346	251.71%

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Inside Out 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1426/11274  [12.65% sold]
Matinee:    687/3344  [20.54% | 11.63% of all tickets sold]
3D:            380/4240  [8.96% | 6.44% of all tickets sold]
PLF:       2062/10730  [19.22% | 34.92% of all tickets sold]

 

==============

 

Very solid start to the day.  Increasing or staying steady against most comps.  The one major note of caution I have is that the Lightyear comp is stubbornly refusing to cross 10m.  Did take the sample slightly later in the case of Lightyear, but that shouldn't matter that much.  Had to temporarily take off the Elemental and KFP4 comps due to not taking mid-day samples, but left the % of final to get a sense of final targeting.

 

Still, do think we should keep ATP in mind for kids tickets against some of these comps and while this does have pretty darn close to exclusive PLF rights, the PLF percentage locally is actually gonna be lower than Lightyear's ended up being and probably pretty middling when all is said and done.  OTOH, ATP hikes since some of the earlier comps like Sonic 2 should counter that to a degree.

 

When all is said and done, probably gonna split the difference between Lightyear/Elemental and my next set of comps.  Probably very lightly penciling in around 10.5m right now, but with so many of these comps based on films that have their biggest surge in the back half of T-0, it's really hard for me to say more than lightly penciling in.

 

Inside Out 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [3:50pm - 4:30pm]

* NOTE:  All screenings that started before 3:50pm were sampled at the start of the showing.

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	257	25135	32945	7810	23.71%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Mid-Day

1905

 

T-0 Comps

	%		Sold Since Mid-Day	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2 [3:55-4:15]	197.67		704	3951		0/126	11964/15915	24.83%		3951	197.67%		12.35m
Ltyear [3:50-4:20]	190.91		802	4091		1/196	18650/22741	17.99%		4091	190.91%		9.93m
Minion 2 [3:50-4:20]	118.49		1571	6591		0/218	23799/30390	21.69%		6591	118.49%		12.74m
Element [4:25-4:40]	408.90		929*	1910		—/—	8657/10567	18.08%		1910	408.90%		9.81m
Barbie [3:50-4:30]	64.67		1494	12077		4/274	17904/29981	40.28%		12077	64.67%		14.62m
Wonka [3:55-4:20]	395.44		461	1975		0/211	24794/26769	7.38%		1975	395.44%		13.84m
GBFE [3:50-4:15]	355.48		439	2197		0/208	27083/29280	7.50%		2197	355.48%		16.71m
KFP4 [3:55-4:20]	332.91		1087*	2346		0/188	18495/20841	11.26%		2346	332.91%		12.65m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Inside Out 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

* NOTE:  Elemental  and KFP4 tickets sold are the for the full day, as I didn't take a mid-day sample for either of those movies.

 

Regal:        1990/11274  [17.65% sold]
Matinee:    1005/3344  [30.05% | 12.87% of all tickets sold]
3D:               582/4240  [13.73% | 7.45% of all tickets sold]
PLF:          2683/10730  [25.00% | 34.35% of all tickets sold]

 

======

 

             (ignore the omens from the movie source

still the best damn rocket launch ever put to the silver screen)

 

What can I say?  Inside Out 2 took off like the proverbial rocket.    Do note that it looks to be somewhat soft post 9pm, which shouldn't at all be a surprise.

 

Only thing left is to figure out the right comp.  And here, both Lightyear and Elemental give me extreme pause.  Now it's insanely dangerous to comp a 3m-ish movie or a 5m-ish one against a 10m+ one.  At the same time, the PLF percentage is pointing to a lower ATP than even something like Minions 2 (which had 37.2%).  Minions 2 did have a relatively similar matinee percentage, FWIW (Min 2: 12.46% | IO2 12.87%).

 

But I do think there'll be more kids tickets sold for a Pixar film than even something like KFP4.  Still, I do think there is a pretty wide range for disagreement here, if only because IO2 is focused on a teen-aged protagonist.   Gonna be on the safer side and say 11.25m +/- .75m.  Larger variance than normal, simply because the ATP question.

 

Don't like giving such a large variance for a relatively smaller preview number.  But those two groups of comps (not counting the loltastic GBFE) are painting a couple of different universes here.

 

Just have to see where it ends up.  Be a great number regardless. 👍

Edited June 13 by Porthos

[charlie Jatinder]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Inside Out 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [3:50pm - 4:30pm]

* NOTE:  All screenings that started before 3:50pm were sampled at the start of the showing.

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	257	25135	32945	7810	23.71%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Mid-Day

1905

 

T-0 Comps

	%		Sold Since Mid-Day	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2 [3:55-4:15]	197.67		704	3951		0/126	11964/15915	24.83%		3951	197.67%		12.35m
Ltyear [3:50-4:20]	190.91		802	4091		1/196	18650/22741	17.99%		4091	190.91%		9.93m
Minion 2 [3:50-4:20]	118.49		1571	6591		0/218	23799/30390	21.69%		6591	118.49%		12.74m
Element [4:25-4:40]	408.90		929*	1910		—/—	8657/10567	18.08%		1910	408.90%		9.81m
Barbie [3:50-4:30]	64.67		1494	12077		4/274	17904/29981	40.28%		12077	64.67%		14.62m
Wonka [3:55-4:20]	395.44		461	1975		0/211	24794/26769	7.38%		1975	395.44%		13.84m
GBFE [3:50-4:15]	355.48		439	2197		0/208	27083/29280	7.50%		2197	355.48%		16.71m
KFP4 [3:55-4:20]	332.91		1087*	2346		0/188	18495/20841	11.26%		2346	332.91%		12.65m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Inside Out 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:        1990/11274  [17.65% sold]
Matinee:    1005/3344  [30.05% | 12.87% of all tickets sold]
3D:               582/4240  [13.73% | 7.45% of all tickets sold]
PLF:          2683/10730  [25.00% | 34.35% of all tickets sold]

 

======

 

             (ignore the omens from the movie source

still the best damn rocket launch ever put to the silver screen)

 

What can I say?  Inside Out 2 took off like the proverbial rocket.    Do note that it looks to be somewhat soft post 9pm, which shouldn't at all be a surprise.

 

Only thing left is to figure out the right comp.  And here, both Lightyear and Elemental give me extreme pause.  Now it's insanely dangerous to comp a 3m-ish movie or a 5m-ish one against a 10m+ one.  At the same time, the PLF percentage is pointing to a lower ATP than even something like Minions 2 (which had 37.2%).  Minions 2 did have a relatively similar matinee percentage, FWIW (Min 2: 12.46% | IO2 12.87%).

 

But I do think there'll be more kids tickets sold for a Pixar film than even something like KFP4.  Still, I do think there is a pretty wide range for disagreement here, if only because IO2 is focused on a teen-aged protagonist.   Gonna be on the safer side and say 11.25m +/- .75m.  Larger variance than normal, simply because the ATP question.

 

Don't like giving such a large variance for a relatively smaller preview number.  But those two groups of comps (not counting the loltastic GBFE) are painting a couple of different universes here.

 

Just have to see where it ends up.  Be a great number regardless. 👍

How's the Mexican population in Sacto? I will just use Minions 2 and Pixar title, the latter can overindex in Sacto if too many Mexicans. Minions 2 be closer as well, especially with similar number it had.

 

Any possibility of TS4 comp?

[filmlover]

2 hours ago, Pinacolada said:

Knew it.

 

Giving The Bikeriders 500 less theaters than Lisa Frankenstein is insane

It's being dumped. I remain convinced the only reason it was given a summer release is because that was the only time the cast could pencil in some promo time for it in their backed up schedules (thanks to the strikes).