The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[keysersoze123]

Just now, Unfitclock said:

@keysersoze123 how does fly me to the moon look near you?

I am afraid I dont have data for that movie. But there are enough reports that its not going to open well. I dont think this should open during summer at all. 

[emoviefan]

11 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Longlegs MTC1

Previews(T-3) - 21724/83431 326677.23 812 shows +5989

Friday - 18144/187102 263351.86 1897 shows +5951

 

 

3m+ previews and low 20s OW. I am expecting big growth in shows tomorrow. This includes shows impacted by hurricane but the amount of the shows is limited in that region for it so far. So difference is couple of % only. 

A Neon release opening to 20+. Wow. Crazy. 

[keysersoze123]

3 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

A Neon release opening to 20+. Wow. Crazy. 

I could be off on this. So far release is small. But I am expecting growth due to great reactions and sales seen so far. it has many shows that are filled and so show more shows would be added for sure. Plus all the reports for that movie here have been promising. That is why I went big 🙂 but if the sales tomorrow shrink or something I will revisit my predictions. 

[Inceptionzq]

On 7/5/2024 at 5:44 PM, Inceptionzq said:

MTC4 Deadpool & Wolverine [+3 days of sales]

T-20 Thursday: 29987/207530

T-21 Friday: 20095/273353

T-22 Saturday: 15133/286142

T-23 Sunday: 5239/284048

MTC4 Deadpool & Wolverine [+3 days of sales]

T-17 Thursday: 31788/207530

T-18 Friday: 22085/273353

T-19 Saturday: 16737/286142

T-20 Sunday: 6090/284048

[crazymoviekid]

Fly Me To the Moon: 

 

Thursday Comps:

 

Theater 1: 5 Tickets

Theater 2: 7 Tickets 

 

The Fall Guy: $2.45M

Argylle: $2.27M

ABY: $.38M

MBFGW3: $.51M

Strays: $1.46M

NHF: $1.52M

TtP: $.57M

 

Wide variety. No sign yet, but best leaning $1.5M. 

[crazymoviekid]

Longlegs: 

 

Thursday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 40 Tickets

Theater 2: 12 Tickets

 

Challengers: $4.55M

Civil War: $11.35M

FNAF: $2.58M

Talk to Me: $7.19M

Evil Dead Rise: $4.48M

TBP: $5.72M

The Northman: $4.28M

 

WAYYYY too high with some stellar WOM presales. Current prediction is $4M-$5M, but realistic is dropping down to $2M-$2.5M

[Rorschach]

Longlegs (Monday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday:

3 2D showings: 38/201 (18.9% sold)

 

Comps:

Strangers Chp. 1: $5.7 mil

Watchers: $2.92 mil

Quiet Place: $4.31 mil

Average: $4.31 mil

 

Friday: 

7 2D showings: 62/480 (12.9% sold)

 

Comps:

Strangers Chp. 1: $10.51 mil

Watchers: $9.83 mil

Quiet Place: $16.53 mil

Average: $12.29 mil

 

Thurs + Fri: 100/681 (14.7% sold)

 

Comps:

Strangers Chp. 1: $16.45 mil

Watchers: $11.61 mil

Quiet Place: $18.93 mil

Average: $15.66 mil

 

 

Ludicrous to think that it'll actually end up being that high, but the fact that it's doing this well this early in the week is an encouraging sign. Personally very excited to track this and see where it ends up.

Edited July 9 by Rorschach

[lorddemaxus]

Longlegs will be Nic Cage’s biggest OW since the 2nd ghost rider lol

Edited July 9 by lorddemaxus

[Ryan C]

I know we're too early to know for sure, but if Longlegs actually does manage to open to $20M, that would put it right around where Inside Out 2 is gonna end up for its fifth weekend (and could even top it to be #2). Despicable Me 4 should be #1 no problem, but if Longlegs keeps accelerating in its pre-sales in the next couple of days, we could be looking at something amazing here. 

 

Also, if anyone on this thread remembers how strong walk-up business was for The Lost City (also starring Channing Tatum), that would be nice to at least give us a idea of how strong walk-ups could be for Fly Me to the Moon. It's not the kind of movie you buy tickets for three weeks in advance. 

[misterpepp]

On 7/3/2024 at 4:51 PM, misterpepp said:

Alien: Romulus sale date moved up to July 11, but that’s likely late at night. Could be 12:01a est on the 12th.

Never mind, Noon EST on the 11th.

[AnthonyJPHer]

It’s way too late to properly track Longlegs, but at my theater it’s sold at least 24 tickets for Thursday which surprised me. I glanced at the other theaters and it looks like it’s selling pretty well in other theaters too. I haven’t checked Friday yet 

[todos]

Is Fly Me to the Moon getting any PLFs for the weekend?

Looks like DM4 is keeping most of them and Inside Out 2 is returning to some Dolbys and handful of IMAX screens in select cities. 

Edited July 9 by todos

[charlie Jatinder]

3 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Deadpool & Wolverine MTC1 Previews(T-17) - 215510/1284186 3946155.54 7894 shows +2870

 

This includes data from theaters impacted by hurricane. Otherwise I am getting drop in ticket sales 🙂 My assumption is these theaters would be back online soon and tickets sold would count for sure. 

As in sales in those theaters are from yesterday's run?

[Cooper Legion]

If it’s not too much trouble could fix those theaters as a % of the rest rather than freeze them at t-18 until back on line, might lead to less illusory distortion (though pretty minor either way)

[charlie Jatinder]

20 minutes ago, Joyous Legion said:

If it’s not too much trouble could fix those theaters as a % of the rest rather than freeze them at t-18 until back on line, might lead to less illusory distortion (though pretty minor either way)

I mean if theaters are closed, possible new sales be anyways minor.

[charlie Jatinder]

On 7/7/2024 at 1:51 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Deadpool 3 MiniTC2 T-19 Days

 

Previews - 11344/86868 (334 showings)
Friday - 7631/135798 (543 showings)
Saturday - 6082/137661 (544 showings)

 

Comps

Black Panther 2 - $40M, $70M & $78M

Thor 4 - $38.3M

GoTG 3 ~ $39M & $70M
 

Thor 4 (T-17) - $35.5M & $61M

Deadpool 3 MiniTC2 T-17 Days

 

Previews - 11735/86864 (334 showings) 

 

Comps

Black Panther 2 - $40M

Thor 4 - $37M

GoTG 3 ~ $38.5M

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Twisters, T-11 Thursday previews and Wednesday EA, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 19

New Sales : 0

Growth: 0%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 18

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 1.1

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

EA sales: 64

 

Tickets by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 3/5

Early Evening: 16/6

Late Evening: 0/6

 

Tickets by Format

Regular: 0/0

Dolby: 13/8

IMAX: 5/6

4DX: 1/3

 

Previews Comps

1.056x Fall Guy for $3.3M

0.373x KOTPOTA for $1.9M

0.528x Bad Boys Ride or Die for $3.1M

0.144x HG: BoSS for $0.8M

0.422x Furiosa for $1.5M

 

Comps with EA rolled into previews 

1.627x KOTPOTA for $8.1M

2.306x Bad Boys Ride or Die for $11.5M

0.629x HG: BoSS for $3.1M

1.844x Furiosa for $9.2M

 

EA Comp

1.391x Fall Guy for $1.1M

 

Still not much movement.

 

Twisters, T-10 Thursday previews and Wednesday EA, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 19

New Sales : 0

Growth: 0%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 18

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 1.1

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

EA sales: 73

 

Tickets by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 3/5

Early Evening: 16/6

Late Evening: 0/6

 

Tickets by Format

Regular: 0/0

Dolby: 13/8

IMAX: 5/6

4DX: 1/3

 

Previews Comps

0.950x Fall Guy for $3.0M

0.328x KOTPOTA for $1.6M

0.487x Bad Boys Ride or Die for $2.9M

0.128x HG: BoSS for $0.7M

0.352x Furiosa for $1.2M

 

Comps with EA rolled into previews 

1.586x KOTPOTA for $8.1M

2.359x Bad Boys Ride or Die for $11.8M

0.622x HG: BoSS for $3.1M

1.704x Furiosa for $8.5M

 

EA Comp

1.587x Fall Guy for $1.3M

 

EA still is selling, but it's been three days since a sale on Thursday previews. This remains very difficult to read.

[Porthos]

On 7/8/2024 at 2:21 AM, Porthos said:

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-18 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	241	27171	33720	6549	19.42%

 

Total Showings Added Today	1
Total Seats Added Today	113
Total Seats Sold Today	118

 

T-18 Comp

	%		Sold T-18	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	67.97		176	9635		0/329	31273/40908	23.55%		21117	31.01%		24.47m
L&T	111.45		196	5876		0/228	25724/31600	18.59%		16962	38.61%		32.32m
BP2	101.88		114	6428		1/294	30596/37024	17.36%		16800	38.98%		28.53m
AM3	152.62		119	4291		0/235	28265/32556	13.18%		10475	62.52%		26.71m
GOTG3	194.91		90	3360		0/206	26287/29647	11.33%		10750	60.92%		34.11m
Bats	186.16		126	3518		0/248	28780/32298	10.89%		11757	55.70%		40.21m
Dune 2	335.67		63	1951		0/171	22765/24716	7.89%		6001	109.13%		40.28m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1477/13029  [11.34% sold]
Matinee:    408/4466  [9.14% | 6.23% of all tickets sold]
3D:             747/6790  [11.00% | 11.41% of all tickets sold]
PLF:         3211/11526  [27.86% | 49.03% of all tickets sold]
———    
DP3 sold     103 seats today at same sources of tracking I had for Captain Marvel
DP3 sold     114 seats today at the same sources of tracking I had for TROS
 

***EXTREMELY AND EXCEEDINGLY UNOFFICIAL COMP***    
DP3 = 1.65366x Captain Marvel at the same sources of tracking at T-18 [40.28m] [ATP adj'ed by 118%]   

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-17 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	250	27430	34095	6665	19.55%

 

Total Showings Added Today	9
Total Seats Added Today	375
Total Seats Sold Today	116

 

T-17 Comp

	%		Sold T-17	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	67.59		226	9861		0/329	31047/40908	24.11%		21117	31.56%		24.33m
L&T	110.46		158	6034		0/228	25566/31600	19.09%		16962	39.29%		32.03m
BP2	101.38		146	6574		1/294	30450/37024	17.76%		16800	39.67%		28.39m
AM3	151.82		99	4390		0/235	28166/32556	13.48%		10475	63.63%		26.57m
GOTG3	194.15		73	3433		0/206	26211/29644	11.58%		10750	62.00%		33.98m
Bats	181.41		156	3674		0/248	28624/32298	11.38%		11757	56.69%		39.18m
Dune 2	332.92		51	2002		0/171	22714/24716	8.10%		6001	111.06%		39.95m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:      1515/13029  [11.63% sold]
Matinee:    423/4466  [9.47% | 6.35% of all tickets sold]
3D:             752/6790  [11.08% | 11.28% of all tickets sold]
PLF:        3244/11526  [28.15% | 48.67% of all tickets sold]
———    
DP3 sold     110 seats today at same sources of tracking I had for Captain Marvel
DP3 sold     116 seats today at the same sources of tracking I had for TROS
--------

***EXTREMELY AND EXCEEDINGLY UNOFFICIAL COMP***    
DP3 = 1.66563x Captain Marvel at the same sources of tracking at T-17 [40.58m] [ATP adj'ed by 118%]   

[Cooper Legion]

2 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I mean if theaters are closed, possible new sales be anyways minor.

As I understand it, the actual data for those theaters is inaccessible right now and buying new tickets there would be impossible. But when they go back online they will centrally catch up, so I’m saying you could just pretend they’re staying same % of whole sample until a few days after back up and then correct to reality, rather than having 0 new sales at them for a while and that snapping back with the catch up sales in a bit

[Eric the Marxist]

6 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

Longlegs will be Nic Cage’s biggest OW since the 2nd ghost rider lol

Croods? Spider-Verse?