The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[filmlover]

August definitely appears more graveyard-y than usual this year. But that could be attributed to the lack of movies with even Good Boys-esque potential.

[AniNate]

Horizon and Kraven had at least seemed like decently schlocky macho stuff that could hold us over until things ramped back up in September, but yeah it looks pretty depressing now.

 

Though the big problem is more that there's no decent looking kids option. Harold and the Purple Crayon was able to commandeer it for some reason. If they had to delay Garfield it would've been better off with that date.

 

 

Edited July 10 by AniNate

[kayumanggi]

...

Edited July 10 by kayumanggi

[kayumanggi]

 

[filmlover]

Luckily September does look quite active to make up for August being such a dead zone.

 

Beetlejuice, Transformers, and The Wild Robot all have plenty of potential. Wolfs and Speak No Evil could be counterprogramming options to look out for as well, even with zero chance of rivaling the year's biggest hits.

[AniNate]

I think cinema will be legit back if the industry can survive until mid-September, but it might be another slog to get there.

 

Hopefully the good Twisters reviews start ramping up interest there and give July a little more boost.

[Cmasterclay]

I think Trap can do 20m OW if it's not bad, but I think it's gonna be bad. Alien and It Ends With Us and Borderlands should all do mid-teens openings at least. It's a bad month but survivable if Twisters and Deadpool hold well.

Edited July 10 by Cmasterclay

[Tinalera]

Twisters

Wed July 17 (AS) Thurs July 18, Fri July 19(T-9_

Toronto and Montreal Canada

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
	Wed	4	6	70	1362	1432	0.048882
Toronto	Thurs	4	27	151	7935	8225	0.01835
	Fri	4	32	106	6958	8932	0.01186
		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
	wed	1	1	7	386	393	0.01781
Montreal	Thurs	3	15	56	5330	5386	0.0103
	Fri	2	12	36	4079	4115	0.0087

 

 

To any questions of Montreal-yes it really its own unique beast inside of Unique Canada- Other than Tentpoles (usually), of the 4 theatres I track they really can vary on pre sales and amt of screens (and theatres) between days.

[JonathanMB]

12 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I think Trap can do 20m OW if it's not bad, but I think it's gonna be bad. Alien and It Ends With Us and Borderlands should all do mid-teens openings at least. It's a bad month but survivable if Twisters and Deadpool hold well.

 

Yeah, I think all four of those have enough potential to keep the month afloat. I definitely think Alien opens above $20M, maybe even $30M if reviews are good (Covenant opened to $36M in 2017 despite being a direct sequel to Prometheus). And It Ends with Us feels like it has Crawdads potential, maybe even bigger since the author is big with BookTok. Trap's marketing has been aces, so that could get M. Night his first $20M+ opening since Glass. Borderlands...maybe the brand name will be enough to get people in theaters? 

 

But yeah, I'm not too concerned about August. I guess it'll be down from last August since it won't have a Barbenheimer bump, but I think it'll come pretty close, especially since there won't be a double-strike hurting marketing like it did for last year's releases. And then Beetlejuice 2 is probably blowing up in September.

[Boxofficerules]

Looking at August, I kind of feel Alien and Trap have the biggest chance of doing well. Borderlands looks like a massive bomb.

[Shawn Robbins]

1 hour ago, Cmasterclay said:

My fault - I mixed you up with Quorum projections! I get the charts all mixed up sometimes. 

No worries! That's one I admittedly had been hesitant to include in long range stuff since we tend to focus on major studios and it can be tricky predicting a Neon location count... but as you all have clearly seen in your data here, it's absolutely merited inclusion in the forecast this week.

[Shawn Robbins]

On 7/9/2024 at 2:35 PM, DAJK said:

@Shawn Robbins any update on Longlegs? Just curious since it’s only been on my radar for 20 minutes lol.

 

Funny you asked that as I had incidentally answered just now (post above). 

 

But yeah, it's snuck up on a lot of us.

[TalismanRing]

NY Regal Local (WED) (5pm)

 

Longlegs: 122/512  (2 showings)

72 tickets for Friday (5 showings)

 

COMPS

 

Bikeriders: $4.88m (R)
AQP3: $9.99m (PG-13)
K: POTA: $5.63m (PG-13)

Civil War: $5.8m (R)

Challengers: $4.18m (R)
Furiosa: $5.62m (R)
Friday Night Freddies: $5.32m (PG-13)
Halloween Kills: $5.59m (R)

John Wick 4: $7.33m (R)

 

 

Fly Me To The Moon: 11/984

7 tickets for Friday (4 showings)

 

Again,  very low numbers - so wildly disparate comps

 

COMPS

Anyone But You: $4.4m
Love Again: 290k

Asteroid City: 448k

No Hard Feelings: $2.56m

Last XMas: 527k

Marry Me: $1.44m

 

[Eric Deetz]

Quorum Updates

Harold and the Purple Crayon T-23: 20.98% Awareness, 32.85% Interest

The Forge T-44: 15.64% Awareness, 39.18% Interest

Wolfs T-72: 20.64% Awareness, 43.65% Interest

Smile 2 T-100: 32.22% Awareness, 43.18% Interest

 

Fly Me to the Moon T-2: 41.71% Awareness, 44.65% Interest

Final Awareness: 78% chance of 10M, 48% chance of 20M

Medium Awareness: 83% chance of 10M, 50% chance of 20M

Final Interest: 48% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M

Medium Interest: 59% chance of 10M, 23% chance of 20M

 

Longlegs T-2: 23.7% Awareness, 45.27% Interest

Final Awareness: 20% chance of 10M

Horror Awareness: 25% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 48% chance of 10M

Horror Interest: 43% chance of 10M

 

Borderlands T-30: 32.28% Awareness, 42.87% Interest

T-30 Awareness: 80% chance of 10M, 55% chance of 20M, 33% chance of 30M

Medium Awareness: 86% chance of 10M, 57% chance of 20M, 43% chance of 30M

T-30 Interest: 59% chance of 10M, 34% chance of 20M

Medium Interest: 73% chance of 10M, 36% chance of 20M

 

Cuckoo T-30: 15.01% Awareness, 39.71% Interest

T-30 Awareness: 14% chance of 10M

Horror Awareness: 10% chance of 10M

T-30 Interest: 33% chance of 10M

Horror Interest: 29% chance of 10M

 

It Ends with Us T-30: 24.21% Awareness, 41.5% Interest

T-30 Awareness: 53% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M

Low Awareness: 38% chance of 10M, 12% chance of 20M

T-30 Interest: 59% chance of 10M, 34% chance of 20M

Low Interest: 29% chance of 10M, 7% chance of 20M

 

Killer's Game T-65: 17.71% Awareness, 42.21% Interest

T-60 Awareness: 31% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 23% chance of 10M

T-60 Interest: 60% chance of 10M

Low Interest: 32% chance of 10M

[Insomnia]

I don't get the doom and gloom about August. If theatres can survive an AWFUL holiday season followed by a truly empty January and February that makes this August look busy in comparison, it can survive this August.

[AniNate]

Realistically it's not so much theaters I'm worried about as how doomy the forum/industry discourse is gonna be. Things got pretty grim by the end of May. Would prefer to avoid that again. 

 

Still leading in the rolling 12 month comparison was how I coped with the April-June slump and I'm doubtful that I'm gonna have that same thing to hold on to once Barbenheimer slips to the past year.

 

 

Edited July 10 by AniNate

[abracadabra1998]

22 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Fly Me to the Moon (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	86	18	61	9194	0.66

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		44	10	72.13
Other chains:		17	8	27.87

 

Thursday Comps:

0.27x Challengers: $430k

1.19x Arthur the King: $985k (17 theaters)

0.41x Anyone But You: $500k (17 theaters)

0.33x Joy Ride: $360k (17 theaters)

0.55x No Hard Feelings: $1.17 Million (12 theaters)

 

Average: $690k

 

Still pretty bad, but maybe (unlikely) it will have a NHF-type of path with a great surge these last two days.

 

Longlegs (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 21 theaters	53	213	771	4656	16.56

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		406	96	52.66
Other chains:		365	117	47.34

 

Comps:

0.91x Maxxxine (w/ EA): $2.9 Million

1.24x Civil War: $3.58 Million

2.47x Monkey Man: $3.46 Million

0.8x KoFM: $2.09 Million (17 theaters)

1.69x The Creator (w/ EA): $2.7 Million (17 theaters)

3.15x Haunting in Venice (w/ EA): $3.79 Million (17 theaters)

3.96x Talk to Me (w/ EA): $4.93 Million (17 theaters)

1.2x Don't Worry Darling: $3.71 Million (12 theaters)

 

Average: $3.4 Million

 

Just chucked absolutely everything at it. Still don't think that normal horror comps don't make much sense (they would point to something in the 5-6 Million range, but capacity isn't there yet and I think this will be way more front loaded), but I feel better after seeing everyone else's numbers also pointing to something crazy (I thought I was way overindexing first). Let's see what the last two days look like because theaters are indeed adding more showtimes.

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Fly Me to the Moon (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	89	35	96	9363	1.03

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		55	11	57.29
Other chains:		41	24	42.71

 

Thursday Comps:

0.29x Challengers: $465k

1.11x Arthur the King: $910k (17 theaters)

0.39x Anyone But You: $475k (17 theaters)

0.31x Joy Ride: $340k (17 theaters)

0.71x No Hard Feelings: $1.54 Million (12 theaters)

 

Average: $745k

 

Still not really seeing a million in previews  

 

Longlegs (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 22 theaters	63	268	1039	5339	19.46

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		535	129	51.49
Other chains:		504	139	48.51

 

Comps:

1.04x Maxxxine (w/ EA): $3.31 Million

1.25x Civil War: $3.63 Million

2.56x Monkey Man: $3.58 Million

0.85x KoFM: $2.21 Million (17 theaters)

The Creator: Missed

2.97x Haunting in Venice (w/ EA): $3.57 Million (17 theaters)

3.02x Talk to Me (w/ EA): $3.76 Million (17 theaters)

1.26x Don't Worry Darling: $3.91 Million (12 theaters)

 

Average: $3.42 Million

 

Killers is a huge outlier, but everything else seems to be pointing at $3.5-3.75 Million. However, there is sure to be an ATP adjustment to be made here. I am quite unsure that I will be able to give T-1 Hour numbers here, but for now I am thinking something around $3.25 Million

[AniNate]

I would very much love to be pleasantly surprised by August but if not I'll probably just avoid the weekend thread for awhile. 

 

Anyway don't want to dwell on it right now. Seems like Longlegs is gonna be a nice little horror hit at least.

[el sid]

As I said elsewhere, very good presales for Longlegs in my theaters too, namely yesterday it had already 1.022 (!) sold tickets for Thursday (and the Friday presales look good too). 

 

After the relative disappointment that MaXXXine was, I was actually not in the mood to count the next movie with weak walk-ups and also read that it's a small release. 

But the presales also in "my" theaters are definitely very good and the number of shows rapidly jumped from only 13 on Saturday to 34 yesterday. 

[filmlover]

Longlegs is looking like the breakout into the mainstream Neon has been waiting for.