The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Inceptionzq]

On 7/8/2024 at 9:23 PM, Inceptionzq said:

MTC4 Deadpool & Wolverine [+3 days of sales]

T-17 Thursday: 31788/207530

T-18 Friday: 22085/273353

T-19 Saturday: 16737/286142

T-20 Sunday: 6090/284048

MTC4 Deadpool & Wolverine [+9 days of sales]

T-8 Thursday: 42015/364483

T-9 Friday: 32831/272260

T-10 Saturday: 24628/284575

T-11 Sunday: 10777/283162

[Inceptionzq]

MTC4 Twisters

T-2 Friday: 9550/356155

T-3 Saturday: 5332/357987

T-4 Sunday: 2042/355395

T-5 Monday: 566/352077

Edited July 20 by Inceptionzq

[Ryan C]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

Disaster movies have been box office kryptonite for a while now. Even Roland Emmerich discovered just two years back that his particular brand of mindless spectacle doesn't sell in theaters anymore (to the point where he's now making projects for Peacock).

 

Yeah, I agree that Moonfall was both literally and figuratively a box office disaster, but that's just one example. Much like with romantic comedies, we don't get nearly enough disaster movies to really call the genre "dead." I'm just hoping for Twisters to become just successful enough to where other studios will try to take a risk on more of these types of movies and then when we get enough of them, we can truly see if the genre is still "kryptonite" or not like you said. 

[AniNate]

Also theaters are still in a fragile place, even if twisters is a massive breakout this weekend it's not gonna compare with barbenheimer last year. 2024 has already sucked enough for the industry, don't need any more big ticket flops.

[Eric the Marxist]

Quorum Updates

Harold and the Purple Crayon T-16: 23.86% Awareness, 33.11% Interest

Borderlands T-23: 35.5% Awareness, 44.14% Interest

Cuckoo T-23: 17.06% Awareness, 41.47% Interest

It Ends with Us T-23: 25.2% Awareness, 40.97% Interest

Afraid T-44: 9.83% Awareness, 38.55% Interest

The Front Room T-51: 18.48% Awareness, 39.18% Interest

The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim T-149: 17.96% Awareness, 42.07% Interest

Den of Thieves: Pantera T-177: 19.38% Awareness, 35.36% Interest

Captain America: Brave New World T-212: 48.34% Awareness, 54.83% Interest

 

Twisters T-2: 62.95% Awareness, 58.55% Interest

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 89% chance of 30M, 86% chance of 40M, 75% chance of 50M, 57% chance of 60M, 46% chance of 70M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 91% chance of 40M, 82% chance of 50M, 73% chance of 60M, 45% chance of 70M, 

Final Interest: 78% chance of 20M, 61% chance of 30M, 48% chance of 40M, 35% chance of 50M, 23% chance of 60M, 17% chance of 70M

Tentpole Interest: 100% chance of 20M, 93% chance of 40M, 71% chance of 50M, 57% chance of 60M, 36% chance of 70M

[Eric the Marxist]

https://thequorum.com/weekly-unaided-awareness-chart-gladiator-ii-comes-in-on-the-light-side/

 

[Ryan C]

Just now, AniNate said:

Also theaters are still in a fragile place, even if twisters is a massive breakout this weekend it's not gonna compare with barbenheimer last year. 2024 has already sucked enough for the industry, don't need any more big ticket flops.

 

Exactly! We may have been kind of on a roll lately ever since Bad Boys: Ride or Die opened very well back in June, but the momentum has to keep going and Twisters opening to at least $55M or more proves that. 

 

Also, it would just be nice to not have to wait until the big Marvel movie comes out to save the box office, so Twisters doing well would counter what we were commonly used to in 2021, 2022, and even in pre-pandemic times. Don't get me wrong, I love it when a Marvel movie hits a home run on it's opening weekend, but now more than ever, variety and depth is extremely important. 

[emoviefan]

2 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Also theaters are still in a fragile place, even if twisters is a massive breakout this weekend it's not gonna compare with barbenheimer last year. 2024 has already sucked enough for the industry, don't need any more big ticket flops.

I mean I really hope that this forum has baked it in that the comp  to last year will be brutal  this weekend. The 21 and 22 Comps will be much more favorable.

[AniNate]

I've baked it in but I coped the may slump with the 12 month comparison, won't have that anymore after this weekend. 

 

Not that I'm gonna doom even if it's a breakout, but I just still have little patience for the schadenfreude mentality that pervades among some people with certain movies

 

 

Edited July 18 by AniNate

[filmlover]

Personally I'm more intrigued if anything in August can break out big, since nothing seems likely to on paper. Too bad Borderlands looks like a flop in waiting.

[AniNate]

August looks like another April to me, maybe some niche movies find a modest audience but nothing that appreciably improves general morale. September however does seem to have a lot of potential

[Ryan C]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

Personally I'm more intrigued if anything in August can break out big, since nothing seems likely to on paper. Too bad Borderlands looks like a flop in waiting.

 

Trap, It Ends With Us, and Alien Romulus are looking like the breakouts of August. Everything else could go either way but as much I just wanna wait and see how it does, I do think Borderlands is gonna be a flop. 

 

I'm sorry, but I literally see no sort of hype or anticipation for that movie. 

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Twisters MTC1

Early Shows(T-1) - 26525/100425 559921.85 409 shows +3544

Previews(T-2) - 47915/709068 889135.83 3894 shows +7888

 Friday - 51370/1113318 918956.74 6123 shows +11407

 

Previews barely accelerated from yesterday. Somewhere in 50s OW. Solid for a sequel that few have asked for. 

Twisters MTC1

Early Shows Final - 40735/104687 835834.35 428 shows +14210

Previews(T-1) - 58915/719176 1074590.83 3979 shows +11000

Friday - 64710/1144290 1140345.38 6361 shows +13340

 

MTC2 Early shows Final - 25025/43124 406554.36 274 shows

 

Thinking it can do 2.25m for early shows and may be 8m for previews including early shows. I think low 60s OW is possible.  

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, Ryan C said:

 

Trap, It Ends With Us, and Alien Romulus are looking like the breakouts of August. Everything else could go either way but as much I just wanna wait and see how it does, I do think Borderlands is gonna be a flop. 

 

I'm sorry, but I literally see no sort of hype or anticipation for that movie. 

It began filming in early 2021. That it's been sitting on the shelf for that long only to ultimately be selected for a dumpy August spot should be an indication of how much faith they have in it.

[Cmasterclay]

Twisters looks like it is going to do completely fine? It's heading towards the same range as Apes and Bad Boys which makes sense, possibly a bit more depending on weekends IM which looks promising.

[abracadabra1998]

23 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Twisters (T-2):

Day: T-2, T-1	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 24 theaters	274	335	1450	40458	3.58
Wednesday July 17 EA: 17 theaters	22	257	1100	4844	22.71
TOTALS:	296	592	2550	45302	5.63

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		882	158	60.83
MTC1:		673	101	46.41
Other chains:		777	234	53.59

 

Thursday Comps:

2.05x Quiet Place Day One: $13.93 Million

1.13x Furiosa: $3.96 Million

2x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: $9.99 Million

4x Fall Guy: $9.41 Million

1.2x Ghostbusters Frozen Empire: $5.62 Million (17 theaters)

1.89x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $8.51 Million (17 theaters)

1.8x Wonka: $6.29 Million

0.66x Indy 5: $4.79 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $7.81 Million

 

Ok, time to look beyond the average here and think about what the audience for this will really look like. It won't skew as cinephile as Furiosa, or as old as Indy. It also won't skew as diverse as Quiet Place, Apes, or even Aquaman, I wouldn't think (even though I am not fully convinced of this, this is a disaster movie and that can easily bring in more diverse audiences/walk-ups). For the reason I just mentioned, I also wouldn't think it skews as White as Wonka or Ghostbusters, although some may disagree here. I feel like something in between those two groupings sounds right though, which would mean in my sample something like $7-8 Million Thursday previews. I know that is quite a bit higher than what some trackers are seeing, but I don't see it as super far-fetched.

 

EA Comps:

1.86x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: $2.98 Million

2.98x Fall Guy: $2.38 Million

3.99x Challengers: $2.19 Million

3x Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare: $1.8 Million (no ATP adjustment)

1.11x MI7: $2.21 Million

 

Average: $2.31 Million

 

I am fully on the $2 MIllion EA train here

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Twisters (T-1):

Day: T-1, T-1 Hour	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 24 theaters	285	415	1865	41468	4.5
Wednesday July 17 EA: 17 theaters	22	565	1665	4844	34.37
TOTALS:	307	980	3530	46312	7.62

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		1134	252	60.8
MTC1:		813	140	43.59
Other chains:		1052	275	56.41

 

Thursday Comps:

1.94x Quiet Place Day One: $13.18 Million

1.25x Furiosa: $4.36 Million

1.95x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: $9.73 Million

3.61x Fall Guy: $8.49 Million

1.37x Ghostbusters Frozen Empire: $6.43 Million (17 theaters)

2x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $9.03 Million (17 theaters)

2.33x Wonka: $8.16 Million (17 theaters)

0.75x Indy 5: $5.41 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $8.1 Million

 

Most comps went up, but taking into account what @M37 (whom I have absolute trust on), if Indy is indeed the best comp, seems like it does point to the numbers others are seeing, ~5.5-6 Million. I will have T-1 Hour numbers tomorrow.

 

EA Comps:

3.33x Fall Guy: $2.66 Million

4.81x Challengers: $2.65 Million

1.14x Dune Part 2: $2.28 Million

1.31x MI7: $2.62 Million

 

Average: $2.55 Million

 

Sure, I'll go with $2.5 Million for EA, why not?

[Ryan C]

3 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Twisters looks like it is going to do completely fine? It's heading towards the same range as Apes and Bad Boys which makes sense, possibly a bit more depending on weekends IM which looks promising.

 

Honestly, now that the reported budget is $155M, all Twisters needs to do is gross about $400M worldwide (just about where Bad Boys and Apes will end up) and it should be fine. If Apes can be seen as a success with $396M worldwide on a $160M budget, I don't see why Twisters can't. Though I hope it goes higher.

[Flip]

On 7/16/2024 at 10:58 PM, Flip said:

Twisters Previews (T-2)

 

24 showtimes/247 tix sold (+44)

 

 

.74x Bad Boys 4 (T-2) [4.36m]

.48x Inside Out 2 (T-2) [6.23m]
 

Wow, less than half the goal I set. this movie has been behaving weirdly with erratic high jumps followed by low increases. Every other movie I’ve tracked (besides Inside Out 2) increased pace on T-2. I don’t even know what the goal for tomorrow should be since the pace seems to randomly fluctuate but at the very least it has to do 85 tickets otherwise I don’t know what to say. 

Twisters Previews (T-1)

 

24 showtimes/321 tix sold (+74)

 

 

.63x Bad Boys 4 (T-1) [3.72m]

.475x Inside Out 2 (T-1) [6.18m]

.63x AQP Day One (T-1) [4.29m]

 

Didn’t reach my goal. I’m mainly using Inside Out 2 because it underindexed a fair amount here and I think Twisters will do the same. If Twisters plays like IO2 it will sell 144 tickets tomorrow. Even though IO2 underindexed, it had the best jump of any film on T-0, so I don’t expect Twisters to do the same. Expecting that some people likely chose EA over buying tickets for tomorrow I’m going to set the goal at 125-130 tickets.

[Flip]

8 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Twisters (T-1):

Day: T-1, T-1 Hour	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 24 theaters	285	415	1865	41468	4.5
Wednesday July 17 EA: 17 theaters	22	565	1665	4844	34.37
TOTALS:	307	980	3530	46312	7.62

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		1134	252	60.8
MTC1:		813	140	43.59
Other chains:		1052	275	56.41

 

Thursday Comps:

1.94x Quiet Place Day One: $13.18 Million

1.25x Furiosa: $4.36 Million

1.95x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: $9.73 Million

3.61x Fall Guy: $8.49 Million

1.37x Ghostbusters Frozen Empire: $6.43 Million (17 theaters)

2x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $9.03 Million (17 theaters)

2.33x Wonka: $8.16 Million (17 theaters)

0.75x Indy 5: $5.41 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $8.1 Million

 

Most comps went up, but taking into account what @M37 (whom I have absolute trust on), if Indy is indeed the best comp, seems like it does point to the numbers others are seeing, ~5.5-6 Million. I will have T-1 Hour numbers tomorrow.

 

EA Comps:

3.33x Fall Guy: $2.66 Million

4.81x Challengers: $2.65 Million

1.14x Dune Part 2: $2.28 Million

1.31x MI7: $2.62 Million

 

Average: $2.55 Million

 

Sure, I'll go with $2.5 Million for EA, why not?

I wouldn’t be too worried with your data since it makes sense the films with no EA would have better pace on Wednesday

[crazymoviekid]

On 7/16/2024 at 11:18 PM, crazymoviekid said:

Twisters: 

 

Thursday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 5 Tickets 

Theater 2: 31 Tickets

 

KotPotA: $4.50M

TFG: $6.65M

T:RotB: $3.80M

Fast X: $2.87M

Bullet Train: $5.02M

Nope: $2.68M

 

Most comps had a healthy surge. Up to $4M-$5M. 

 

Friday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 18 Tickets 

Theater 2: 34 Tickets

 

KotPotA: $11.40M

TFG: $14.12M

T:RotB: $7.01M

Fast X: $7.84M

Bullet Train: $25.21M

Nope: $6.10M

 

Hrmm, we could be in for a rough ride. Saying $11M-$14M rn

Twisters:

 

Thursday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 10 Tickets 

Theater 2: 60 Tickets

 

KotPotA: $6.03M

TFG: $9.88M

T:RotB: $5.85M

Fast X: $3.55M

Bullet Train: $5.11M

Nope: $3.22M

 

Comps continue to grow. $5M-$6M

 

Friday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 21 Tickets 

Theater 2: 55 Tickets

 

KotPotA: $11.60M

TFG: $16.88M

T:RotB: $9.08M

Fast X: $8.21M

Bullet Train: $24.09M

Nope: $6.84M

 

Most comps went up. Still feeling strong about $11M+