The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Grand Cine]

10 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

It ends with us MTC1

Early Shows(8/7) -  17143/44471 249714.33 365 shows

Previews(T-7) - 22865/199763 314980.46 1646 shows

 

Just MTC1 and that too just previews/early shows. I think daily pace for previews alone is promising at this point. if you add early shows to it its even more impressive.  if it can accelerate I am expecting 6-7m including early shows. Plus Friday was already well ahead. This is going for a big opening weekend. I would be surprised by anything less than 45m at this point. 

Comparaison at T-7

 

Hunger Games: The BOSS MTC1

Previews - 35018/375733 663901.76 1969 shows +2991

Pace much better pace than HG at this point for Thursday ( around 5,4K for the last two days contraty to 6,7K for IEWU) . With 1-1,5M for EA and if it continues his pace , i think more 7-7,5M including EA. 40M would be locked , probably 45-50M OW depending on how Friday will count for the rest of the weekend.

 

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 7/27/2024 at 3:02 PM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
Deadpool & Wolverine	3,361	229,174		171,602		57,572	6,150	38,607
Twisters	3,298	72,859	-37.63%	72,546	581.23	313	8	0
Despicable Me 4	2,998	48,593	-32.52%	45,334	339.33	3,259	0	3,180
Inside Out 2	2,647	39,003	-17.88%	36,663	270.09	2,340	421	1,840
Longlegs	2365	32,245	-20.54%	32,227	295.02	18	0	0
A Quiet Place: Day One	1718	18,603	-46.17%	18,548	184.20	55	0	0
The Fabulous Four	951	15,589		15,589		0	0	0
Fly Me to the Moon	1,085	6,294	-81.11%	6,279	99.34	15	0	0
Bad Boys: Ride or Die	788	5,780	-60.76%	5,768	181.64	12	0	0

 

US Showtime Sample* 7/26 Weekend

*Not all theaters included

 

 

Opening weekend showtime comp

Deadpool & Wolverine - 229,174 (3,361 TC)

 - Dr Strange 2 - 229,917 (3,660)

 - Black Panther 2 - 222,802 (3,599)

 - No Way Home - 206,421 (3,340)

 - Thor 4 - 194,969 (3,540)

 - Ant-Man 3 - 191,032 (3,683)

 

The Fabulous Four - 15,589 (951 TC)

 - National Champions - 15,457 (1,174)

 - Vengeance - 14,169 (929)

 - Show Me the Father - 15,629 (1,054)

 

T-1 Week showtime comps

Trap - 33,821 (2,086 TC)

 - Haunting in Venice - 37,383 (2,067)

 - Meg 2 - 38,093 (1,911)

 - The Watchers - 33,331 (2,088)

 - Death on the Nile - 33,327 (2,240)

 - Moonfall - 33,048 (2,259)

 

Harold and the Purple Crayon - 30,764 (1,764 TC)

 - Paws of Fury - 31,294 (2,060)

 - Strange World - 31,574 (1,946)

 - Ruby Gillman - 31,781 (1,893)

 - Puss in Boots: Last Wish - 30,437 (2,314)

 

T-2 Week previews comps

It Ends With Us (EA) - 769 (744 TC)

 - Ungentlemanly (EA) - 812

 - Strays (EA) - 835

 - Bullet Train (EA) - 670

 

It Ends With Us - 6,411 (1,919 TC)

 - Lost City - 5,838 (2,142)

 - I Wanna Dance - 5,579 (1,938)

 - Elvis - 5,527 (2,328)

 - Crawdads - 5,157 (1,803)

 

Borderlands - 6,089 (1,683 TC)

 - Uncharted - 7,459 (2,177)

 - Oppenheimer - 6,315 (2,375)

 - Dune - 5,906 (2,129)

 - Civil War - 6,831 (2,079)

 

T-3 Week previews comps

Alien: Romulus - 9,236 (2,094 TC)

 - Nope - 8,197 (2,086)

 - Kingdom of Apes - 9,990 (2,141)

 - Ghostbusters Frozen Empire - 10,683 (1,917)

 

Coraline - 2,652 (1,317 TC)

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
Deadpool & Wolverine	3,369	150,745	-19.69%	11,3496	922.60	37,249	4,911	23,148
Trap	2,766	55,453		54,665		788	0	0
Twisters	3,245	53,892	-26.03%	53,525	480.26	367	0	0
Harold and the Purple Crayon	2736	50,205		49,442		763	0	0
Despicable Me 4	2,755	41,132	-15.35%	38,820	300.24	2,312	0	2,243
Inside Out 2	2166	31,386	-19.53%	29,960	220.94	1,426	164	1,218
Longlegs	1867	19,696	-38.92%	19,681	210.26	15	0	0
The Firing Squad	765	8,408		8,408		0	0	0
Kneecap	661	7,870		7,870		0	0	0
A Quiet Place: Day One	917	7,623	-59.02%	7,606	167.14	17	0	0
The Fabulous Four	835	5,476	-60.61%	5,476	64.83	0	0	0

 

US Showtime Sample* 8/2 Weekend

*Not all theaters included

 

Opening weekend showtime com

Trap - 55,453 (2,766 TC)

 - Beast - 57,591 (3,225)

 - Death on the Nile - 56,756 (2,935)

 - Old - 56,613 (2,958)

 - Abigail - 55,624 (2,828)

 - Monkey Man - 54,544 (2,662)

 

Harold and the Purple Crayon - 50,205 (2,736 TC)

 - Paws of Fury - 50,995 (2,971)

 - Ruby Gillman - 53,972 (2,908)

 

T-1 Week showtime comps

It Ends With Us (EA) - 1,025 (797 TC)

 - Top Gun (Tue EA) - 1,008

 - Dog (EA) - 1,099

 - Creed III (EA) - 1,188

 - Ungentlemanly (EA) - 932

 - Strays (EA) - 930

 - Bullet Train (EA) - 847

 

It Ends With Us - 37,380 (2,286 TC)

 - Lost City - 38,802 (2,634)

 - Elvis - 38,236 (2,726)

 - Haunting in Venice - 37,383 (2,067)

 

Borderlands - 36,704 (2,059 TC)

 - Uncharted - 50,667 (2,672)

 - Dune - 45,388 (2,771)

 - Haunted Mansion - 41,831 (2,393)

 - Ninja Turtles - 39,056 (2,105)

 - Meg 2 - 38,093 (1,911)

 - Cocaine Bear - 33,501 (2,362)

 

Cuckoo - 12,496 (812 TC)

 - Fall - 12,629 (868)

 - The Cursed - 11,540 (959)

 - Love Lies Bleeding - 13,476 (981)

 

T-2 Week previews comps

Alien: Romulus - 9,493 (2,171 TC)

 - Ghostbusters: Afterlife - 9,550 (2,316)

 - Furiosa - 9,497 (2,005)

 - John Wick 4 - 9,400 (2,382)

 - Equalizer 2 - 8,619 (1,860)

 - Nope - 8,442 (2,194)

 

Coraline - 2,753 (1,338 TC)

[keysersoze123]

Only thing holding back It ends is the small release. let us see how it expands next week post the strong presales. 

[abracadabra1998]

Looking back, a good comp for Trap might have been Monkey Man. Heavy MTC1/urban skew, a small-ish but meaningful fanbase with the GA not really buying in. I did consider it but the R vs PG-13 ratings kept me from including it in my posts. Oh well, you live and you learn!

[Cooper Legion]

Do you have some 2nd wknd show comps @katnisscinnaplex? I feel like that DPW is a tracked record or maybe 2nd to only nwh but it would be a relatively pain to look up

[filmlover]

Don't know if this has been mentioned yet but showtimes are starting to appear for Beetlejuice Beetlejuice.

 

Early Access shows at 7:00 that Wednesday, otherwise starts at 3:00 that Thursday.

Edited August 2 by filmlover

[katnisscinnaplex]

57 minutes ago, Cooper Legion said:

Do you have some 2nd wknd show comps @katnisscinnaplex? I feel like that DPW is a tracked record or maybe 2nd to only nwh but it would be a relatively pain to look up

This is second, but not to No Way Home which only had 91,095 (it had five new wide releases in week 2).  The record is actually Dr Strange 2 with 157,880, but that was with 3,692 theaters in the sample.  Black Panther 2 is third with 139,924 slightly ahead of Top Gun 2's 139,380

[keysersoze123]

5 hours ago, Grand Cine said:

Comparaison at T-7

 

Hunger Games: The BOSS MTC1

Previews - 35018/375733 663901.76 1969 shows +2991

Pace much better pace than HG at this point for Thursday ( around 5,4K for the last two days contraty to 6,7K for IEWU) . With 1-1,5M for EA and if it continues his pace , i think more 7-7,5M including EA. 40M would be locked , probably 45-50M OW depending on how Friday will count for the rest of the weekend.

 

I think it does not comp well when it comes to ATP. It has no PLF shows. So it has to sell way more tickets to come close to HG in gross. But good news is its not skewed that much to coasts. So MTC1 will under index compared to HG.

[Grand Cine]

36 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I think it does not comp well when it comes to ATP. It has no PLF shows. So it has to sell way more tickets to come close to HG in gross. But good news is its not skewed that much to coasts. So MTC1 will under index compared to HG.

Yes , other MTC are solid so yeah MTC1 has a good chance to under index. I think the other markets of other trackers will be interesting to analysis .

[keysersoze123]

On 7/31/2024 at 1:43 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Alien: Romulus MTC1

Previews - 23296/410856 451193.68 2017 shows // includes fan show BO of 8728/31732 176314.12 170 shows

Friday - 12215/588200 234378.41 2835 shows

 

Really solid as it has 15 plus days of sales to go. @Porthos may be its worth a look though MTC1 skew could be higher due to fan shows. 

Alien: Romulus MTC1

Previews - 27200/413659 524423.84 2035 shows +3904 // includes fan show BO of 10404/31732 209295.26 170 shows

Friday - 14109/590204 270254.03 2845 shows +1894

 

Skewing very heavily towards previews and that is boosted by fan shows. Still good for something that has 13 plus days of PS. 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 7/31/2024 at 9:07 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

IT ENDS WITH US 

 

Thursday 

 

T-8

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
384	3010	74950	4.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 7:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

343

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-8

(1.203x) of Bad Boys $7.10M

(2.072x) of Fall Guy $4.76M

Comps AVG: $5.93M

 

Super strong numbers continue. Outpacing Twisters, Quiet place, and Furiosa easily. Could be $6M+???

FLORIDA 

IT ENDS WITH US 

 

Thursday 

 

T-6

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
384	3627	74950	4.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 7:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

425

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-6

(1.275x) of Bad Boys $7.52M

(2.400x) of Fall Guy $5.52M

Comps AVG: $6.52M

25% decrease to account for ATP/PLF: $4.89M

 

lol what the hell

Edited August 3 by TheFlatLannister

[keysersoze123]

To reiterate it has no PLF. I would discount 25% when comping with movies with wide PLF release. 

[Ryan C]

13 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

IT ENDS WITH US 

 

Thursday 

 

T-6

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
384	3776	74950	5.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 7:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

574

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-6

(1.327x) of Bad Boys $7.83M

(2.497x) of Fall Guy $5.74M

Comps AVG: $6.79M

 

lol what the hell

 

It's genuinely gonna be hilarious when looking at the films that opened in the $50M range this year and see a bunch of the IP films like Bad Boys: Ride or Die, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, A Quiet Place: Day One, Kung Fu Panda 4, etc., and then see It Ends With Us there if it keeps accelerating at this pace. 

 

It was already shocking to see Twisters open to over $80M and be just a mariginal step below Dune Part Two's opening weekend, but I can't wait for the entire industry to just faint when they see It Ends with Us (an adult drama) open that high. 

[misterpepp]

My Penguin Friend went on sale today. Apologies for missing a couple of these smaller titles!

[misterpepp]

Blink Twice on sale Aug 9

[Flip]

22 hours ago, Flip said:

It Ends With Us Previews (T-7) two days of sales

 

9 showtimes/179 tickets sold (+56)

 

1.08x Trap Previews (T-7) [???]

.77x AQP D1 Previews (T-7) [5.24m]

1.36x Bad Boys 4 (T-7) [7.96m]
3.65x The Watchers (T-7) [3.65m]

It Ends With Us Previews (T-6)

 

13 showtimes/210 tickets sold (+31)

 

1.17x Trap Previews (T-6) [2.57m]

Missed AQP D1 Previews (T-6) []

1.57x Bad Boys 4 (T-6) [9.18m]
4.65x The Watchers (T-6) [4.65m]

 

Bad boys comp will come down starting at T-2

[keysersoze123]

On 8/1/2024 at 8:52 PM, keysersoze123 said:

It ends with us MTC1

Early Shows(8/7) -  17143/44471 249714.33 365 shows

Previews(T-7) - 22865/199763 314980.46 1646 shows

 

Just MTC1 and that too just previews/early shows. I think daily pace for previews alone is promising at this point. if you add early shows to it its even more impressive.  if it can accelerate I am expecting 6-7m including early shows. Plus Friday was already well ahead. This is going for a big opening weekend. I would be surprised by anything less than 45m at this point. 

It ends with us MTC1

Early Shows(8/7) -  19095/45255 277642.61 371 shows +1952

Previews(T-6) - 25930/209414 357021.81 1725 shows +3065

Friday - 34531/272603 467238.20 2154 shows

 

I would say 1m early shows and another 5-6m with previews. Will probably finish 120Kish for previews. low teens True Friday for mid to high 40s weekend. 

[keysersoze123]

14 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

It ends with us MTC2

Early shows - 8235/19933 109705.79 210 shows

Previews(T-7) - 20341/143963 259646.35 1329 shows

 

This is as of late night yesterday. Its MTC2 numbers  are even more impressive. That shows MTC1 ratio would be way less than norm.  

It ends with us MTC2

Early shows - 10154/27021 134685.98 256 shows +1919

Previews(T-6) - 23882/156505 304997.74 1467 shows +3541

 

Another strong day here as well. 

[Ryan C]

It Ends With Us

 

T-7

 

Friday: 1,560 Seats Sold 

 

Taken as of 2:00AM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: Not much needs to be said here. Only thing is that I didn't include any EA screenings when tracking the usual 14 theaters in or close in my area. I'm sure that 1,560 number would be much higher if I did. 

 

Regardless, if this doesn't convince someone at this point that we're looking at a breakout hit next weekend, I don't know what will. 

[vafrow]

On 7/27/2024 at 6:49 AM, vafrow said:

 

Alien Romulus, Thursday Previews, T-20, Western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 62

New Sales since T-27: 24

Growth: 63%

Theatres tracked: MTC4 

Theatres: 2

Showtimes: 7

Radius: 19km

Tickets per Showtime: 8.9

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Tickets per showtime 

Late Afternoon: 5/1

Early Evening: 44/3

Late Evening: 13/3

 

Tickets by Format:

VIP: 26/4

IMAX: 36/3

 

Comps

2.818x AQP:D1 for $19.2M

2.067x KOTPOTA for $10.3M

3.647x BB:RoD for $21.4M

 

Average: $17.0M

 

I recognize these numbers are ridiculous, but it's what's being spit out. When I get to next weekend, it'll help bring more comps online. But unless I comp to some bigger films like Dune, nothing I see would bring this in line with expectations.

 

Even other August films that are similar are nowh close. Trap is at 4 tickets sold coming out later this week. Borderlands is still stuck at a low 5 tickets after being on sale for a few days, and comes out the week before this.

 

Alien Romulus, Thursday Previews, T-13, Western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 105

New Sales since T-20: 43

Growth: 69%

Theatres tracked: MTC4 

Theatres: 2

Showtimes: 7

Radius: 19km

Tickets per Showtime: 15.0

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Tickets per showtime 

Late Afternoon: 11/1

Early Evening: 70/3

Late Evening: 24/3

 

Tickets by Format:

VIP: 46/4

IMAX: 59/3

 

Comps

2.442x AQP:D1 for $16.6M

2.386x KOTPOTA for $11.9M

3.088x Furiosa for $10.8M

3.281x BB:RoD for $19.3M

 

Average: $15.9M

 

It continues to spit out outlier level numbers. I was able to add Furiosa, which I think should be a good comp. Legacy IP, R rated. But even then, the horror style aspect of Romulus means it's probably better suited for walk ups.

 

This will also get new showtimes on Tuesday night, and being limited to two theatres right now means that there's likely unfulfilled demand for those theatres, so this could jump up quite a bit.