The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Ryan C]

Just now, John Marston said:

https://www.the-numbers.com/news/257560830-Theater-counts-Deadpool-and-Wolverine-claw-their-way-back-to-widest-release
 

 

Alien Romulus losing a surprisingly decent number of theaters 

 

Yeah, that's easily the most shocking thing I saw reading those theater counts. It doesn't make any sense. 

 

I would get it if this were next weekend and you're dealing with a movie like Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, but not on a weekend where it's still one of the biggest movies playing in theaters right now. 

 

Hopefully this doesn't stop it from hitting $100M domestically. 

[misterpepp]

Killer's Game on sale Sep 3

[Eric the Marxist]

https://thequorum.com/weekly-unaided-awareness-chart-where-are-gladiator-ii-and-venom-the-last-dance/

 

[Eric the Marxist]

Quorum Updates

Never Let Go T-22: 26.81% Awareness, 48.45% Interest

Saturday Night T-43: 17.62% Awareness, 43.39% Interest

Red One T-78: 25.07% Awareness, 45.24% Interest

Gladiator II T-85: 42.83% Awareness, 48.15% Interest

 

1992 T-1: 27.75% Awareness, 45.41% Interest

Final Awareness: 18% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 13% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 47% chance of 10M

Low Interest: 33% chance of 10M

 

Afraid T-1: 25.44% Awareness, 46% Interest

Final Awareness: 18% chance of 10M

Horror Awareness: 33% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 47% chance of 10M

Horror Interest: 43% chance of 10M

 

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice T-8: 72.75% Awareness, 67.15% Interest

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 90M, 83% chance of 100M, 33% chance of 200M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 100M

Final Interest: 100% chance of 30M, 89% chance of 70M, 78% chance of 100M, 11% chance of 200M

Tentpole Interest: 100% chance of 30M, 50% chance of 100M

 

The Front Room T-8: 27.1% Awareness, 44.11% Interest

Final Awareness: 18% chance of 10M

Horror Awareness: 33% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 47% chance of 10M

Horror Interest: 43% chance of 10M

 

White Bird T-36: 17.6% Awareness, 39% Interest

T-30 Awareness: 15% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 11% chance of 10M

T-30 Interest: 30% chance of 10M

Low Interest: 24% chance of 10M

 

Here T-64: 15.12% Awareness, 40.64% Interest

T-60 Awareness: 29% chance of 10M

Medium Awareness: 40% chance of 10M

T-60 Interest: 61% chance of 10M

Medium Interest: 65% chance of 10M

[ThatWaluigiDude]

Any updates on Terrifier 3?

[wattage]

2 hours ago, Ryan C said:

 

Yeah, that's easily the most shocking thing I saw reading those theater counts. It doesn't make any sense. 

 

I would get it if this were next weekend and you're dealing with a movie like Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, but not on a weekend where it's still one of the biggest movies playing in theaters right now. 

 

Hopefully this doesn't stop it from hitting $100M domestically. 

Disney might have thrown it to the wolves for inside out or something, can't think of another reason for it 

[Bob Train]

2 hours ago, Ryan C said:

 

Yeah, that's easily the most shocking thing I saw reading those theater counts. It doesn't make any sense. 

 

I would get it if this were next weekend and you're dealing with a movie like Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, but not on a weekend where it's still one of the biggest movies playing in theaters right now. 

 

Hopefully this doesn't stop it from hitting $100M domestically. 

Theater counts don’t matter unless a movie is well into it’s run. It doesn’t matter whether a movie is in 3500 or 4500, those extra 1000 don’t add much usually. Show count matters way more.

 

For example, movies rarely lose theaters in their 2nd weekends, but they often lose shows, especially PLF shows, which can have an effect on the drop.

[Flip]

On 8/28/2024 at 11:20 PM, Flip said:

Beetlejuice 2 Previews (T-8)

 

21 showtimes/279 tix sold (+11)

 

1.29x AQP Day One (T-8) [8.77m]
2.04x Alien: Romulus (T-8) [13.26m]

2.2x IEWU (T-8) [14.85m]
2.21x Bad Boys 4 (T-8) [12.32m]
 

Bad day after the last two were decent. IEWU exploded starting at T-7, so that comp will drop below 1.75x, but there’s the PLF advantage for Beetlejuice (extra 15-20%). A Quiet Place is the only thing that worries me (but it didn’t have a strong finish).

Beetlejuice 2 Previews (T-7)

 

21 showtimes/292 tix sold (+13)

 

1.27x AQP Day One (T-7) [8.77m]
1.85x Alien: Romulus (T-7) [12.03m]
2.23x Bad Boys 4 (T-7) [12.43m]

7.89x Borderlands (T-7) [10.26m]

 

I’m hoping the acceleration hasn’t started yet, it’s slowly slipping against other comps + there hasn’t been a review bump. Previews are probably heading for 12m now, but could end up as low as 10m if pace doesn’t pick up.

[DAJK]

AfrAId about 550k previews around me.

[ThomasNicole]

45 minutes ago, Flip said:

there hasn’t been a review bump

WB is holding the tomatoeter review ... the reviews are there, but only if you actually open the tab and look for them. 

 

MC is up, but most people use RT i think, so that´s probably why. Apparently the actual ´´embargo´´ and the tomatoeter drops on TUE next week.

[ThomasNicole]

You can probably count with the same tactics for Joker ... reviews will be out next week with the presales, but WB will likely prevent RT from update them as well, so they can use the score bump later in the campaign. 

 

Weird how a studio can fully control score reveals these days. 

[Krissykins]

Hadn’t ever heard of Reagan until today when I seen it in BOR’s forecast on X. 

[AniNate]

1 hour ago, ThomasNicole said:

You can probably count with the same tactics for Joker ... reviews will be out next week with the presales, but WB will likely prevent RT from update them as well, so they can use the score bump later in the campaign. 

 

Weird how a studio can fully control score reveals these days. 

 

That's the benefit of partially owning the website

[cubek]

4 hours ago, ThomasNicole said:

WB is holding the tomatoeter review ... the reviews are there, but only if you actually open the tab and look for them. 

 

MC is up, but most people use RT i think, so that´s probably why. Apparently the actual ´´embargo´´ and the tomatoeter drops on TUE next week.

RT recently updated its criteria for tomatometer visibility, along with its popcorn meter update, see below link:

https://editorial.rottentomatoes.com/article/audience-score-update/

 

By the new standard, a movie like Beetlejuice, which is projected to make 120M+ lifetime gross, will now need 40+ reviews to have its tomatometer visible, and it currently stands at 35. The popcorn meter sees a similar tightened standard for visibility.

 

For blockbusters in the future, RT score will likely see a substantial lag compared to MTC.

 

[Selma]

8 hours ago, Eric Ripley said:

https://thequorum.com/weekly-unaided-awareness-chart-where-are-gladiator-ii-and-venom-the-last-dance/

 

Moana 😭😭

[Firepower]

25 minutes ago, cubek said:

RT recently updated its criteria for tomatometer visibility, along with its popcorn meter update, see below link:

https://editorial.rottentomatoes.com/article/audience-score-update/

 

By the new standard, a movie like Beetlejuice, which is projected to make 120M+ lifetime gross, will now need 40+ reviews to have its tomatometer visible, and it currently stands at 35. The popcorn meter sees a similar tightened standard for visibility.

 

For blockbusters in the future, RT score will likely see a substantial lag compared to MTC.

 

This is really dumb.

[thajdikt]

40 reviews is hardly many, Beetlejuice is an exception due to playing at Festival. Most movies don’t. 

[JustLurking]

I think it makes sense since the rt% often gets viral posts as soon as it appears even at very low number of reviews where it is VERY, very subject to change.

 

Not that 40 reviews is all that stable either but compared to, say, 10, it's a more solid indicator.

[vafrow]

On 8/29/2024 at 6:31 AM, vafrow said:

 

Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice, T-8, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews and Wednesday EA

 

Previews

Total Sales: 105

New Sales: 8

Growth: 8%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 38

Tickets per Showtime: 2.8

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: N

 

Wednesday EA Shows

EA Showtimes: 5

EA Theatres: 5

EA Sales: 97

New sales: 3

Growth: 3%

 

Previews Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 4/11

Early Evening: 65/13

Late Evening: 28/14

 

Preview Sales by Format

Regular: 0/9

Dolby: 22/9

VIP: 57/11

IMAX: 8/6

4DX: 8/3

 

Comps (preview to preview)

1.667x GB:FE for $7.8M

0.515x GxK for $5.1M

 

Average: $6.5M

 

Comps (combined EA and previews)

2.928x Fall Guy for $9.2M

2.296x Twisters for $24.6M

3.206x GB:FE for $15.1M

0.990x GxK for $9.9M

 

Average: $14.5M

 

A bit of a review bump, but I was hoping for more.

 

Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice, T-7, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews and Wednesday EA

 

Previews

Total Sales: 121

New Sales: 16

Growth: 15%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 38

Tickets per Showtime: 3.2

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: N

 

Wednesday EA Shows

EA Showtimes: 5

EA Theatres: 5

EA Sales: 98

New sales: 1

Growth: 1%

 

Previews Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 6/11

Early Evening: 79/13

Late Evening: 36/14

 

Preview Sales by Format

Regular: 6/9

Dolby: 36/9

VIP: 59/11

IMAX: 8/6

4DX: 12/3

 

Comps (preview to preview)

1.862x GB:FE for $8.7M

0.535x GxK for $5.4M

 

Average: $7.1M

 

Comps (combined EA and previews)

3.174x Fall Guy for $10.0M

2.126x Twisters for $22.8M

3.369x GB:FE for $15.8M

0.969x GxK for $9.7M

 

Average: $14.4M

 

First day of double digit growth in a long time. Hopefully first of several.

 

I probably should decouple the Twisters and Fall Guy comps to report separately on previews. I might make the shift this weekend. 

 

 

[vafrow]

On 8/29/2024 at 6:43 AM, vafrow said:

 

Transformers One, D2, T-22, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews and Early Access shows 

 

Previews

Total Sales: 5

New Sales: 2

Growth: 67%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 13

Tickets per Showtime: 0.4

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Sunday EA Shows

Showtimes: 3

Sales: 7

New sales: 3

Growth: 75%

 

Wednesday EA Shows

Showtimes: 1

EA Sales: 0

New sales: na

Growth: na

 

Previews Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 0/1

Early Evening: 3/6

Late Evening: 2/6

 

Preview Sales by Format

Dolby: 0/3

Dolby 3D: 2/4

IMAX: 3/4

4DX: 0/2

 

Comps (preview to preview)

0.417x KFP4 for $2.0M

2.500x IO2 for $32.5M

0.714x DM4 for $19.4M

 

Average: $18.0M

 

I wouldn't put too much faith in the raw numbers. What's more important is that it's selling in range of the other successful movies, even with decent volumes on the EA shows. And this is for a sept school night as well.

 

Comps are measuring day 2. Will switch to T minus on the weekend probably.

 

Transformers One, D3, T-21, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews and Early Access shows 

 

Previews

Total Sales: 5

New Sales: 0

Growth: 0%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 13

Tickets per Showtime: 0.4

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Sunday EA Shows

Showtimes: 3

Sales: 7

New sales: 0

Growth: 0%

 

Wednesday EA Shows

Showtimes: 1

EA Sales: 0

New sales: na

Growth: na

 

Previews Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 0/1

Early Evening: 3/6

Late Evening: 2/6

 

Preview Sales by Format

Dolby: 0/3

Dolby 3D: 2/4

IMAX: 3/4

4DX: 0/2

 

Comps (preview to preview)

0.333x KFP4 for $1.6M

0.625x IO2 for $8.1M

0.556x DM4 for $15.1M

 

Average: $8.3M

 

Zero sales day. It's brought the crazy end of the comps down.

 

I don't think there's too much that'll happen on this for a while. I will probably only update periodically.