The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[vafrow]

15 minutes ago, filmpalace said:

Speak No Evil T-0

 

Tickets sold: 162 (+58)

Growth: 56%

Theatres: 2

Showtimes: 8

 

First time tracking a movie done ✅ Looking forward to continue tracking and gaining comps. Do wish this had a bit of a stronger finish.

[kayumanggi]

 

[kayumanggi]

 

[Ryan C]

6 minutes ago, vafrow said:

I want to take a minute and pause to recognize what a good week this thread is having. It's fun when this community can spot a trend this quickly and definitively.

 

It's admittedly better when it's a positive news story, but it's still an accomplishment. We've had a variety of trackers come through, all with different markets and different tracking styles see things unfold on Joker this week.

 

We've had a lot of experienced trackers take a step back at various points in recent times, but it's always been filled with others stepping in and providing data. And the efforts here truly feels like every data point counts.

 

Also, to a lot of the new visitors to this thread, It's not hard to jump into the frey. Anyone can start by tracking a single theatre and seeing where it goes from there. Anyone wanting to try can get advice from anyone on here. Everyone here is happy to help anyone trying to figure it out.

 

I'll just say that I was not expecting to get into tracking a movie's presales this much. I thought Deadpool and Wolverine would be the only one I would care about doing because I knew that movie was going to have a massive opening, but that intrigue and excitement has translated into other movies like It Ends with Us, Alien: Romulus, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, and now Joker 2. 

 

Maybe it's because it's the closest way for us to determine whether a movie will break out or not, but I feel like all of us who track these movies do a lot of important work that more people should consider taking seriously. 

 

God knows how much time we spend going to a movie theater's website, checking each showtime, making sure you count every single seat that is sold, and then add them all up to get a number that'll either mean good things or bad things for the movie. 

[interiorgatordecorator]

megalopolis news?

[WebSurfer]

10 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

megalopolis news?

what news?

[Ryan C]

The Substance

 

T-6 and T-7

 

Wednesday EA Showings: 244 Seats Sold (From 7 Theaters)

Thursday: 253 Seats Sold (From 7 Theaters)

= 497 Seats Sold

 

Taken as of 6:10PM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: For that one person who wanted to see how The Substance is doing, well here you go. 

 

I don't know if these numbers mean we'll see a potential breakout, but I can't imagine these numbers being bad. At the very least, the buzz this has been getting from film festivals seems to be paying off with the number of tickets being sold right now.

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

JOKER: FOLIE À DEUX 

 

Thursday 

 

T-22

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
621	3122	129088	2.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 7:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

190

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-22

(0.650x) of Beetlejuice $6.37M

(0.148x) of Deadpool x Wolverine $5.71M

(0.778x) of Dune 2 $7.23M

Comps AVG: $6.43M

 

Ehhh things could be worse I guess. Still a massive failure so far. Could be a $45M-$55M opening from what i'm seeing...

 

FLORIDA 

JOKER: FOLIE À DEUX 

 

Thursday 

 

T-21

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
621	3193	129088	2.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 7:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

71

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-21

(0.639x) of Beetlejuice $6.26M

(0.150x) of Deadpool x Wolverine $5.79M

(0.747x) of Dune 2 $6.95M

Comps AVG: $6.33M

 

Good recovery yesterday, bad day today 

[joselowe]

4 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

JOKER: FOLIE À DEUX 

 

Thursday 

 

T-21

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
621	3193	129088	2.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 7:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

71

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-21

(0.639x) of Beetlejuice $6.26M

(0.150x) of Deadpool x Wolverine $5.79M

(0.747x) of Dune 2 $6.95M

Comps AVG: $6.33M

 

Good recovery yesterday, bad day today 

Do you think this might hit $70 million opening week like Deadline predicted?

[Menor the Destroyer]

6 hours ago, Mulder said:

It's not having a very strong reception though. Like enough people've seen it now to know that it'll be divisive.

Yeah I don't think it's gonna get all that close to the 70m number. But sales alone wouldn't preclude that tracking.

[TheFlatLannister]

5 minutes ago, joselowe said:

Do you think this might hit $70 million opening week like Deadline predicted?

This is a Flash/The Marvels 2.0 imo

 

Summer 2024 films did have really great late business but those were relatively well received out of the gate

[AnthonyJPHer]

1 hour ago, Ryan C said:

 

I'll just say that I was not expecting to get into tracking a movie's presales this much. I thought Deadpool and Wolverine would be the only one I would care about doing because I knew that movie was going to have a massive opening, but that intrigue and excitement has translated into other movies like It Ends with Us, Alien: Romulus, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, and now Joker 2. 

 

Maybe it's because it's the closest way for us to determine whether a movie will break out or not, but I feel like all of us who track these movies do a lot of important work that more people should consider taking seriously. 

 

God knows how much time we spend going to a movie theater's website, checking each showtime, making sure you count every single seat that is sold, and then add them all up to get a number that'll either mean good things or bad things for the movie. 

To jump into this conversation, I only started tracking with Inside Out 2 and then got massively burned out by Deadpool and Wolverine. It’s exhausting work but it was also really fun. I’m probably not going to fully track a movie until Moana 2 and especially Mufasa, but that’s mostly because I want to pace myself. 
 

But I appreciate every tracker here for their work. 

[HummingLemon496]

35 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

This is a Flash/The Marvels 2.0 imo

 

Summer 2024 films did have really great late business but those were relatively well received out of the gate

Honest question, if this really is "Flash/Marvels 2.0" then what is the pessimistic scenario?

[Shawn Robbins]

Definitely a big update on Joker coming. Reviews seem to have impacted upfront demand that was already teetering on the perception of being a musical-adjacent film, even though it's not as if the first film was widely adored by critics either.

 

Will be interesting to see how this plays out with general audiences over the next few weeks, but to have to start putting this movie in the category of something like John Wick 4 rather than It or Deadpool 1+2 on a box office level is, uh, catching many off guard.

 

The Flash data comps seem appropriate given the EAs and early sales, and I would also look to Black Adam as a fall DC movie comp.

 

Didn't have that on my bingo card.

[dudalb]

1 hour ago, WebSurfer said:

what news?

We all know Melegapolis is giong to end up being a limited engagment Art House film.

[dudalb]

10 minutes ago, Shawn Robbins said:

Definitely a big update on Joker coming. Reviews seem to have impacted upfront demand that was already teetering on the perception of being a musical-adjacent film, even though it's not as if the first film was widely adored by critics either.

 

Will be interesting to see how this plays out with general audiences over the next few weeks, but to have to start putting this movie in the category of something like John Wick 4 rather than It or Deadpool 1+2 on a box office level is, uh, catching many off guard.

 

The Flash data comps seem appropriate given the EAs and early sales, and I would also look to Black Adam as a fall DC movie comp.

 

Didn't have that on my bingo card.

I was always skeptical about how the core 18 to 35 male demo..which does not like musicals..would accept Joker 2 being a musical.

I think Philips had to hit it out of the ball park as far a critical reception goes to make this a big hit, and that is not going to happen.

Edited Friday at 12:01 AM by dudalb

[Eric the Marxist]

Quorum Updates

Bagman T-16: 19.16% Awareness, 39.04% Interest

The Wild Robot T-16: 29.67% Awareness, 39.66% Interest

Joker: Folie a Deux T-23: 67.04% Awareness, 63.4% Interest

Wicked T-72: 47.72% Awareness, 49.94% Interest

Flight Risk T-135: 25.08% Awareness, 47.12% Interest

With Love T-149: 7.54% Awareness, 28.31% Interest

 

The Killer's Game T-2: 28% Awareness, 43.53% Interest

Final Awareness: 17% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 13% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 45% chance of 10M

Low Interest: 33% chance of 10M

 

Speak No Evil T-2: 39.88% Awareness, 48.71% Interest

Final Awareness: 40% chance of 10M

Horror Awareness: 41% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 45% chance of 10M

Horror Interest: 42% chance of 10M

 

Smile 2 T-37: 38.6% Awareness, 46.83% Interest

T-30 Awareness: 77% chance of 10M, 54% chance of 20M, 33% chance of 30M, 15% chance of 40M

Horror Awareness: 83% chance of 10M, 58% chance of 20M, 42% chance of 30M, 25% chance of 40M

T-30 Interest: 57% chance of 10M, 34% chance of 20M, 20% chance of 30M, 11% chance of 40M

Horror Interest: 63% chance of 10M, 37% chance of 20M, 17% chance of 30M, 7% chance of 40M

 

Red One T-65: 25.13% Awareness, 45.09% Interest

T-60 Awareness: 59% chance of 10M, 31% chance of 20M

Medium Awareness: 71% chance of 10M, 35% chance of 20M

T-60 Interest: 60% chance of 10M, 34% chance of 20M

Medium Interest: 65% chance of 10M, 35% chance of 20M

[ThomasNicole]

Any signs of life for Speak No Evil? It just got a 90% certified fresh on RT. 
 

Still thinking WOM can kick in and push it higher at last minute.

[Eric the Marxist]

https://thequorum.com/weekly-unaided-awareness-chart-wicked-starts-to-rise-terrifier-3-is-finding-an-audience/

 

[TalismanRing]

Are there any theater counts on the Derby films:  God's Not Dead: In God We Trust  (not even listed on HSX) & Usher: Rendezvous In Paris