The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[vafrow]

This will increase demand for the Wednesday EA shows tomorrow in my data, probably at the expense of the Thursday previews.

 

 

[AniNate]

Feel like those Sonic posters would be a bigger motivation than keychains but that's just me.

[vafrow]

1 hour ago, AniNate said:

Feel like those Sonic posters would be a bigger motivation than keychains but that's just me.

 

Selling a Transformers movie on merch to another property seems weird to me personally. Transformers is supposed to be one of Paramounts few flagship brands. 

 

But I haven't seen that confirmed yet for MTC4, so I'm not certain. It's also a Friday promotion, which again, weakens the Thursday preview demand.

[Boxofficerules]

My local cinema is have a double bill of Smile and Smile 2 the Wednesday before it opens.

[filmpalace]

I'll take a better look at TOne's numbers later today, but as of now it's Thursday numbers at my theaters are below Speak No Evil's from last week.

Edited Tuesday at 01:56 PM by filmpalace

[CheeseWizard]

1 hour ago, vafrow said:

 

Two factors:

 

There were more trackers on Beetlejuice. A few outkiers don't get noticed as much. And we had the bigger, more experienced trackers going, which iron out variances, based on volume of their tracks, a bigger baseline of comps to use and more experience in understanding which comps to use (the part is really tricky, and a key skill that takes time and experience).

 

The other is that it was a bigger film. Smaller films, particularly a kids film with lower demand for a Thursday preview, means that small variances result in wider ranges.

 

This is a very imperfect science. It's why major trade publications get it wrong so often. It's also hard to find like-to-like comparisons. It's why it's a very collaborative approach in this thread. 

 

And for the record, these are very good questions. If someone's data doesn't make sense or is difficult to interpret, most trackers are usually happy to answer questions. I think most here would prefer a question than someone wildly misinterpreting information here and spreading it around elsewhere, which has been happening more and more.

I think a lot of people are afraid of asking and looking dumb, or just lazy. Thank you though

[crazymoviekid]

Transformers One 

 

Thursday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 9 Tickets

Theater 2: 6 Tickets

 

Garfield: $2.46M

KFP4: $3.17M

Trolls 3: $3.71M

 

$2.5M-$3.5M range right now

[THUNDER BIRD]

Atleast Transformers One will open at One position on weekend, will it.

[WebSurfer]

6 minutes ago, THUNDER BIRD said:

Atleast Transformers One will open at One position on weekend, will it.

One Pun Intended?

[AniNate]

Very hard to predict where these are going. I wonder if certain areas are just even more inclined to walk up for family movies in September. This is rather unprecedented territory where we have two enthusiastically received kids movies opening consecutive weeks; for any time of the year let alone September.

[THUNDER BIRD]

16 minutes ago, WebSurfer said:

One Pun Intended?

Yes

[AniNate]

'Transformers One' Eyes U.S. Opening $30M+: Box Office (deadline.com)

[Mojoguy]

I know you guys are all saying TOne is doomed, but how many people would actually buy early for the movie? Seems like it will depend on walkups.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

11 minutes ago, AniNate said:

'Transformers One' Eyes U.S. Opening $30M+: Box Office (deadline.com)

That $75M budget number is a pretty huge bombshell given the $147M number we've seen earlier. In that case, then a $30M opening is actually managable and good word of mouth as well as merchandise sales could allow them to move forward with this new series.

[Grand Cine]

If the movie open with 30M+ and with good WOM, 100M will happen , with 75M Budget , it need just 70-75M OS to be rental.

 

Also not forget , Ninja Turtles made 180M Total and was the 4th most valuable movie of 2023 thanks to Marchandise (204M Profits).

[Mojoguy]

6 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

That $75M budget number is a pretty huge bombshell given the $147M number we've seen earlier. In that case, then a $30M opening is actually managable and good word of mouth as well as merchandise sales could allow them to move forward with this new series.

That $147M budget never made any sense for TOne. I'm glad Deadline is saying $75M. That's around TMNT Murant Mayhem.

[WebSurfer]

On 9/16/2024 at 8:52 AM, YM! said:

At this point, 30m isn’t happening.

Looking like it might.

[AniNate]

Not sure if it's been mentioned in this thread yet, but another thing to keep in mind is TFOne previews begin at 5pm Thursday instead of 2pm, so that's another thing that might deflate them by animation comparisons

[Flopped]

Anything on Substance theatre count and possible box office? Can it beat Late Night with the Devil's total? 

[vafrow]

1 hour ago, AniNate said:

Not sure if it's been mentioned in this thread yet, but another thing to keep in mind is TFOne previews begin at 5pm Thursday instead of 2pm, so that's another thing that might deflate them by animation comparisons

 

My experience when looking at those earlier afternoon sales is they make little difference, particularly when schools are in session. It's representing maybe 3-4% of sales, with no certainty that those tickets wouldn't be sold for later shows.