The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[filmlover]

Quote

 

Studios have voted — and the decision is unanimous. For the first time anyone can remember, the box office marquee notably will be devoid of new all-audience releases the weekend following the 2024 presidential election. The first and second weekends of November have become fertile ground in terms of launching a movie before the year-end holiday glut begins. But the noise from this year’s Kamala Harris- Donald Trump race is expected to be so loud that distributors are staying on the sidelines when it comes to tentpoles. 

 

That noise could make it tough to promote a film opening during the Nov. 8-10 weekend, since the airwaves will be flooded with political ads in the preceding weeks. Sources also tell The Hollywood Reporter that ad rates are expected to be inflated by 30 percent to 40 percent because of the presidential showdown. A studio prepared to shell out $20 million or $30 million on TV media would suddenly be looking at $28 million to $40 million, for example.

 

Another concern: civil unrest. No one in Hollywood has forgotten the images of the U.S. Capitol being ransacked and pillaged on Jan. 6, 2021, following Trump’s loss to Biden.

 

Studios to Avoid Releasing Movies Around Election Day (hollywoodreporter.com)

 

If there's that much concern I doubt there will be National Cinema Day that weekend. If it happens this year it'll probably be the weekend after Thanksgiving: the new releases that weekend seem dumpy (as is usually the case for post-Thanksgiving weekend releases) and the box office will be alive with at least three movies that will be making numbers in the 8 digits area over the holiday frame before it.

[el sid]

Just for fun/sport: 

 

My true Friday number was 28.4M (compared to the presales of Kung Fu Panda 4, JWD, It 2 (extrapolated from its Wednesday sales) and Maleficent 2 (only two theaters).

 

But I have Maleficent 2 numbers from five theaters (not from all seven because of error reports in the AMCs in California back then). So actually it's 1.469 sold tickets (BJBJ) vs 655 (Maleficent 2). Maleficent 2 had way worse presales between the coasts. So the true Friday number is 22.85M (up from 17.85M). 

 

And the average number from the four films of course also improves, namely to 29.65M.

[CheeseWizard]

So is this 41.5 million on Friday alone, or is it also counting the 12.9 million made in previews, thus making it a $28.6m Friday?

Edited September 7 by CheeseWizard
Re-edited an edit because I’m an idiot

[Bob Train]

6 hours ago, filmlover said:

Studios to Avoid Releasing Movies Around Election Day (hollywoodreporter.com)

 

If there's that much concern I doubt there will be National Cinema Day that weekend. If it happens this year it'll probably be the weekend after Thanksgiving: the new releases that weekend seem dumpy (as is usually the case for post-Thanksgiving weekend releases) and the box office will be alive with at least three movies that will be making numbers in the 8 digits area over the holiday frame before it.

I doubt it happens then, Moana 2’s second frame will be big (likely 50m+ 2nd weekend) and Disney won’t want to risk losing any $$$.

 

NCD only happens on  comparatively dead weekends where nothing is making >20m. 

 

If NCD happens it’ll happen in mid-November before Thanksgiving when nothing will be opening, otherwise it won’t happen at all.

[filmpalace]

Decided to give tracking a go myself  I’m not sure which cities are already being tracked by the other users on here, so if you guys have any suggestions or feel like I should focus on another city, please do tell (I don’t live in the U.S, either). For now, I chose to track 2 theaters in Las Vegas: the AMC Town Square and the AMC Rainbow Promenade. I know 2 theaters isn’t a lot, but I feel like this is a safe choice for now, considering I don’t know how time consuming tracking will become 😅

-

Speak No Evil T-5:

Tickets sold: 32

Showtimes: 8

-

No surprise here, but most seats that have been sold, are ones for evening shows.

No comps so far, since this is the first movie I’m tracking.

 

 

Edited September 7 by filmpalace

[AniNate]

Even Frozen 2's second weekend wasn't 50mil. Really if there's any weekend you can count on annually to be a dead zone it's post Thanksgiving. An NCD in that frame would be a boost to disney revenue if anything. Theaters would surely have more than enough capacity to accommodate

 

 

Edited September 7 by AniNate

[Bob Train]

33 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Even Frozen 2's second weekend wasn't 50mil. Really if there's any weekend you can count on annually to be a dead zone it's post Thanksgiving. An NCD in that frame would be a boost to disney revenue if anything. Theaters would surely have more than enough capacity to accommodate

 

 

Frozen 2 made $85m in its second weekend. NCD only boosts grosses if it’s a dead weekend, if a movie is doing big numbers it would hurt grosses because of low atp.

[wattage]

7 hours ago, filmlover said:

Studios to Avoid Releasing Movies Around Election Day (hollywoodreporter.com)

 

If there's that much concern I doubt there will be National Cinema Day that weekend. If it happens this year it'll probably be the weekend after Thanksgiving: the new releases that weekend seem dumpy (as is usually the case for post-Thanksgiving weekend releases) and the box office will be alive with at least three movies that will be making numbers in the 8 digits area over the holiday frame before it.

The theaters still need money, I don't see why the studios wouldn't agree to doing the NCD when they're not doing any major releases and the theaters would definitely want the boost since everyone decided to vacate the area

[AniNate]

Oh it released the weekend before thanksgiving, that's what threw me off.

 

We already have discount Tuesdays though, which do boost kids movies quite a bit even if they're really big anyway. It's shortsighted to assume NCD wouldn't boost demand as well and only works for a real dump season.

 

 

Edited September 7 by AniNate

[Firepower]

Any numbers of Megalopolis pre-sales?

[WebSurfer]

3 minutes ago, Firepower said:

Any numbers of Megalopolis pre-sales?

What numbers???

 

🙃

[CheeseWizard]

43 minutes ago, Firepower said:

Any numbers of Megalopolis pre-sales?

3 and 1/2

[emoviefan]

6 hours ago, Bob Train said:

I doubt it happens then, Moana 2’s second frame will be big (likely 50m+ 2nd weekend) and Disney won’t want to risk losing any $$$.

 

NCD only happens on  comparatively dead weekends where nothing is making >20m. 

 

If NCD happens it’ll happen in mid-November before Thanksgiving when nothing will be opening, otherwise it won’t happen at all.

The Nov 8-10 would be ideal since the studios ran from that weekend  because of post election fears. And Monday is Veterans day so it is a 4 day weekend.

[Mojoguy]

31 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

The Nov 8-10 would be ideal since the studios ran from that weekend  because of post election fears. And Monday is Veterans day so it is a 4 day weekend.

Studios are terrified of competing with Trump for the audience's attention.

[emoviefan]

10 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

Studios are terrified of competing with Trump for the audience's attention.

If people are staying home watching him giving his concession speech then all good. As if that will happen. 

[AniNate]

Wouldn't be the worst thing if the base all decided to drown their sorrows seeing Best Christmas Pageant Ever that weekend

[Ryan C]

Transformers One

 

T-6, T-10, and T-11

 

Saturday, September 14 - Early Access Screenings: 333 Seats Sold (From 13 Theaters)

Wednesday, September 18 - Fan Event Screenings: 426 Seats Sold (From 8 Theaters)

Thursday, September 19 - Traditional Thursday Previews: 408 Seats Sold (From 15 Theaters)

= 1,167 Seats Sold

 

Taken as of 2:30AM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: With this not only having EA showings but Fan Event Screenings, it'll definitely make this one interesting to track. Though Paramount better hope that there's enough Transformers fans to show up on the movie's actual opening weekend because a good chunk of them (based on these sales) are gonna be seeing the movie early at either of these specific screenings. That means it'll have to rely on both good word-of-mouth and family walk-ups to hopefully have a solid opening.

 

It's definitely possible, but I am concerned that this is the kind of franchise where the fans will show up, but it won't be able to appeal beyond that. Since this is the first fully animated film to have come out since Despicable Me 4, I'm more likely to believe that it'll attract a lot of families and teenagers, but we'll see how well does in the next week or so.

 

For now though, these pre-sales aren't looking that bad. 

[James]

Joker presales start tomorrow right?

[CheeseWizard]

4 hours ago, Ryan C said:

That means it'll have to rely on both good word-of-mouth and family walk-ups to hopefully have a solid opening.

Well I have dozens of friends in the community who’ve seen it and the only criticisms I’ve seen so far were about it having a rocket fast pace, some jokes here and there not landing, and a specific issue with the worldbuilding that implies some characters are older and younger than they usually are in the cartoons and comics.   I think word-of-mouth might be pretty positive here. Not like, Puss in Boots levels of positive but far better word-of-mouth than all the other transformers movies.
 

There’s also like, a set of people who are upset the movie isn’t a 1:1 adaptation of IDW Publishings “Megatron Origins” which I get, because it’s far and away the most interesting origin for the war, but that entire storyline lacks Bumblebee or even Optimus, I get why they didn’t.

[vafrow]

On 9/7/2024 at 7:06 AM, vafrow said:

 

Transformers One, T-13, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews and Early Access shows 

 

Previews

Total Sales: 11

New Sales: 0

Growth: 0%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 13

Tickets per Showtime: 0.8

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Sunday EA Shows

Showtimes: 3

Sales: 36

New sales: 2

Growth: 6%

 

Wednesday EA Shows

Showtimes: 1

EA Sales: 0

New sales: na

Growth: na

 

Previews Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 0/1

Early Evening: 5/6

Late Evening: 6/6

 

Preview Sales by Format

Dolby: 0/3

Dolby 3D: 6/4

IMAX: 5/4

4DX: 0/2

 

Comps (preview to preview)

0.204x KFP4 for $1.0M

0.314x IO2 for $4.1M

0.110x DM4 for $3.0M

2.750x Garfield for $5.3M

 

Average: $3.3M

 

EA Comps (Sunday only)

3.600x Garfield for $2.1M

 

Staying pretty flat.

 

Transformers One, T-12, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews and Early Access shows 

 

Previews

Total Sales: 13

New Sales: 2

Growth: 18%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 13

Tickets per Showtime: 1.0

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Sunday EA Shows

Showtimes: 3

Sales: 39

New sales: 3

Growth: 8%

 

Wednesday EA Shows

Showtimes: 1

EA Sales: 11

New sales: 11

Growth: na

 

Previews Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 0/1

Early Evening: 7/6

Late Evening: 6/6

 

Preview Sales by Format

Dolby: 0/3

Dolby 3D: 6/4

IMAX: 7/4

4DX: 0/2

 

Comps (preview to preview)

0.241x KFP4 for $1.2M

0.317x IO2 for $4.1M

0.116x DM4 for $3.2M

3.250x Garfield for $6.3M

 

Average: $3.7M

 

EA Comps (Sunday only)

3.900x Garfield for $2.2M

 

Biggest thing today was a surge in sales for the Wednesday EA, for which the numbers aren't taken into account for any of the comps. But the EA Sunday comp is already doing well with only Garfield as a benchmark, and if I rolled it into Thursday previews, it would have it at $6-7M.