The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[HummingLemon496]

24 minutes ago, Relevation said:

Currently I’m expecting around more Lightyear OW ($45-50M) with much better legs, to take it to like ~$155-175M DOM

 

It’s a kids movie and it’s a Transformers movie, the fact that it has even remotely sizeable advance early sales is fantastic given the kinds of insane walkups it’s gonna pull near the end, expecting something like $3.5M pure THU + $1.5-2M EA, and then a 14-15x IM 

I think on Reddit you said Wild Robot > Joker 2 OW?

 

Edit: Wait no nevermind you're talking about Transformers

Edited Sunday at 02:18 AM by HummingLemon496

[AniNate]

Wild Robot's presales are no slouch themselves and it'll be taking PLF from Transformers its opening weekend (looks like Cinemark theaters starting to come around to that decision too) so I have to imagine TFOne will be having a rough drop its second weekend no matter what. If Joker fails to catch fire though that may push more of a periphery audience to a well reviewed PG action movie. Could very well benefit from a lack of other kids options through October and early November like I think wild robot will 

 

 

 

Edited Sunday at 02:22 AM by AniNate

[Flip]

23 hours ago, Flip said:

Joker 2 Previews (T-20)

20 showtimes/284 tix sold (+33)

 

Missed Deadpool 3 (T-20) [???]
1.87x Beetlejuice 2 (T-20) [18.33m]
2.22x AQP Day One (T-20) [15.10m]

 

Strong growth. Probably a regional thing though, since Joker likely pulls in both the NYC “art house” crowd and the GA comic book fans.

Joker 2 Previews (T-19)

20 showtimes/292 tix sold (+8)

 

.21x Deadpool 3 (T-19) [8.09m]
Missed Beetlejuice 2 (T-19) [???]
2.23x AQP Day One (T-19) [15.16m]
 

Slower day today, yesterday was weird then. I think Deadpool comp is undershooting it a bit since that seems like a more front loaded movie (+ it had a much longer window), but on the other hand it’s also more walk up friendly. I only checked Deadpool sporadically, but in the next 5 days it grew 8.65%, which I think Joker 2 can comfortably surpass (would need to sell 26 tickets). 

[Flip]

On 9/13/2024 at 11:08 PM, Flip said:

Transformers One (T-6) 

 

11 showtimes/60 tix sold (+0)

 

.21x Inside Out 2 (T-6) [2.73m]

 

Yep, no growth

Transformers One Previews (T-5) 

 

11 showtimes/62 tix sold (+2)

 

.20x Inside Out 2 (T-5) [2.60m]

1.44x Borderlands (T-5) [1.87m]

 

Added Borderlands just to get an extra comp in for wider variety. Tomorrow is really important; it should hopefully sell 10+ tickets 

[Flip]

On 9/11/2024 at 11:24 PM, Flip said:

The Wild Robot (T-15)

 

16 showtimes/55 tix sold (+5)

 

.43x Inside Out 2 (T-15) [5.59m]

1.20x Transformers One (T-15) [???]

The Wild Robot Previews (T-12)

 

16 showtimes/67 tix sold (+12)

 

Missed Inside Out 2 (T-12) [???]

Missed Transformers One (T-12) [???]

 

It’s pacing well

[Lux Lenchner]

44 minutes ago, Flip said:

The Wild Robot Previews (T-12)

 

16 showtimes/67 tix sold (+12)

 

Missed Inside Out 2 (T-12) [???]

Missed Transformers One (T-12) [???]

 

It’s pacing well

The legs for this movie are gonna be INSANE.

[CheeseWizard]

8 hours ago, Flip said:

Transformers One Previews (T-5) 

 

11 showtimes/62 tix sold (+2)

 

.20x Inside Out 2 (T-5) [2.60m]

1.44x Borderlands (T-5) [1.87m]

 

Added Borderlands just to get an extra comp in for wider variety. Tomorrow is really important; it should hopefully sell 10+ tickets 

I have a feeling it might not. Something about this movie feels like it might like, Mutant Mayhem numbers domestically, and around 120 for overseas or something. I have a hard time believing it’ll get past 230 million in general 

[SpiderByte]

Any idea if Joker 2 is as leggy as the first? With the reception that seems unlikely 

[TwoMisfits]

12 hours ago, emoviefan said:

Yeah the copium with some people thinking this will be backloaded or something. It's the sequel to a extremely popular movie with a locked in fanbase or so we thought because they do not seem locked in anymore.

 

Joker 2 seems like a movie (like Creed 3 and John Wick 4) where a $5 ticket drop might be REALLY beneficial to pull fence sitters in to the movie, b/c I think a lot of people are fence sitters over the musical part (supers fans and musical fans do not tend to overlap, and it seems the overlap may be off-putting to both, vs bringing in both)...

[THUNDER BIRD]

4 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Joker 2 seems like a movie (like Creed 3 and John Wick 4) where a $5 ticket drop might be REALLY beneficial to pull fence sitters in to the movie, b/c I think a lot of people are fence sitters over the musical part (supers fans and musical fans do not tend to overlap, and it seems the overlap may be off-putting to both, vs bringing in both)...

Could also give Buy One Get One Free offer.

[vafrow]

On 9/14/2024 at 7:01 AM, vafrow said:

 

Transformers One, T-6, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews and Early Access shows 

 

Previews

Total Sales: 27

New Sales since: 5

Growth: 23%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 13

Tickets per Showtime: 2.1

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Saturday EA Shows

Showtimes: 3

Sales: 213

New sales: 78

Growth: 58%

 

Wednesday EA Shows

Showtimes: 1

EA Sales: 17

New sales: 0

Growth: 0%

 

Previews Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 2/1

Early Evening: 11/6

Late Evening: 14/6

 

Preview Sales by Format

Dolby: 2/3

Dolby 3D: 11/4

IMAX: 8/4

4DX: 6/2

 

Comps (preview to preview)

0.200x KFP4 for $1.0M

0.260x IO2 for $3.4M

0.103x DM4 for $2.8M

6.750x Garfield for $13.0M

 

Average: $2.4M (excluding Garfield)

 

EA Comps (Sunday only)

10.000x Garfield for $5.8M

 

It's chugging along. The EA sales later today showed great growth over the last two days. I wouldn't be surprised if they sold out with walk ups. If the previews perform similarly, this could really explode at the end, but the community day promotion is probably skewing things a bit for today, so hard to judge.

 

Transformers One, T-5, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews and Early Access shows 

 

Previews

Total Sales: 27

New Sales since: 5

Growth: 23%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 13

Tickets per Showtime: 2.1

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Saturday EA Shows T-0 (15 minutes to showtime)

Showtimes: 4 (new location added)

Sales: 306

New sales: 93

Growth: 44%

 

Wednesday EA Shows

Showtimes: 1

EA Sales: 17

New sales: 0

Growth: 0%

 

Previews Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 2/1

Early Evening: 11/6

Late Evening: 14/6

 

Preview Sales by Format

Dolby: 2/3

Dolby 3D: 11/4

IMAX: 8/4

4DX: 6/2

 

Comps (preview to preview)

0.175x KFP4 for $0.8M

0.211x IO2 for $2.7M

0.077x DM4 for $2.1M

6.750x Garfield for $13.0M

 

Average: $1.9M (excluding Garfield)

 

The EA showings were a success, but nothing happening for previews and it's losing ground. I'm hoping it picks up soon.

[vafrow]

On 9/13/2024 at 6:56 AM, vafrow said:

 

The Wild Robot, T-14, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews

 

Total Sales: 9

New Sales: 2

Growth: 29%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 17

Tickets per Showtime: 0.5

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: N

 

PSales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 0/5

Early Evening: 7/7

Late Evening: 2/5

 

Preview Sales by Format

Regular:  0/1

Regular 3D: 0/1

Dolby: 0/2

Dolby 3D: 9/8

IMAX: 0/4

 

Comps 

0.188x KFP4 for $0.9M

0.257x IO2 for $3.3M

2.250x Garfield for $4.3M

0.818x TFOne for ???

 

Average: $2.9M

 

I'm reluctant to put too much weight on Garfield, but it's not like the other comps are great ones either.

 

The Wild Robot, T-12, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews

 

Total Sales: 12

New Sales since T-14: 3

Growth: 33%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 17

Tickets per Showtime: 0.7

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: N

 

PSales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 2/5

Early Evening: 8/7

Late Evening: 2/5

 

Preview Sales by Format

Regular:  0/1

Regular 3D: 0/1

Dolby: 2/2

Dolby 3D: 9/8

IMAX: 1/4

 

Comps 

0.222x KFP4 for $1.1M

0.293x IO2 for $3.8M

3.000x Garfield for $5.8M

0.923x TFOne for ???

 

Average: $3.5M

 

[Boxofficerules]

I've seen a few posts on Twitter praising Never Let Go, unfortunately Lionsgate probably not going to market it.

[vafrow]

On 9/14/2024 at 7:17 AM, vafrow said:

 

Joker: Folie a Deux, T-20, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews and Monday EA 

 

Total Sales: 66

New Sales: 5

Growth: 8%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 19

Tickets per Showtime: 3.5

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 6/4

Early Evening: 39/9

Late Evening: 21/6

 

Preview Sales by Format

Dolby: 24/7

VIP: 19/6

IMAX: 23/6

 

Comps

1.082x Beetlejuice² for $10.6M

0.202x Dune 2 for $2.0M

0.130x The Marvels for $0.9M

Average: $4.5M

 

Monday EA Sales

Total: 81

New sales: 13

Growth: 18%

Showings: 2 IMAX showing in radius 

 

EA Comp

0.212x Dune 2 for $0.4M

 

  Slight progress. Not bad, when I feared it could spiral.

 

The EA shows still show a lot of strength, which is probably hurting demand on previews.

 

Joker: Folie a Deux, T-19, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews and Monday EA 

 

Total Sales: 71

New Sales: 5

Growth: 8%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 19

Tickets per Showtime: 3.7

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 6/4

Early Evening: 40/9

Late Evening: 25/6

 

Preview Sales by Format

Dolby: 29/7

VIP: 19/6

IMAX: 23/6

 

Comps

1.164x Beetlejuice² for $11.4M

0.208x Dune 2 for $2.0M

0.139x The Marvels for $0.9M

1.145x Alien Romulus for $7.4M

Average: $5.5M

 

Monday EA Sales

Total: 87

New sales: 6

Growth: 7%

Showings: 2 IMAX showing in radius 

 

EA Comp

0.221x Dune 2 for $0.4M

 

I added Alien Romulus as a comp. Not sure why I didn't think to add this before.

 

Growth is staying in a nice healthy range. The comps I do have at this stage started earlier, so were closer to the bottom of the U at the time, while Joker still has first week momentum. Still, it's not bad. Note, as I saw a few people here and elsewhere try to extrapolate this. This isn't a huge acceleration or anything. It's just good, decent growth after a very slow start.

Edited Sunday at 06:08 PM by vafrow

[Krissykins]

21 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

I've seen a few posts on Twitter praising Never Let Go, unfortunately Lionsgate probably not going to market it.

Yeh same, seen some good reactions! 2,600 cinemas too, similar to The Crow. Guessing another $3-4m opening, which is a shame. 

[CheeseWizard]

52 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

Transformers One, T-5, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews and Early Access shows 

 

Previews

Total Sales: 27

New Sales since: 5

Growth: 23%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 13

Tickets per Showtime: 2.1

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Saturday EA Shows T-0 (15 minutes to showtime)

Showtimes: 4 (new location added)

Sales: 306

New sales: 93

Growth: 44%

 

Wednesday EA Shows

Showtimes: 1

EA Sales: 17

New sales: 0

Growth: 0%

 

Previews Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 2/1

Early Evening: 11/6

Late Evening: 14/6

 

Preview Sales by Format

Dolby: 2/3

Dolby 3D: 11/4

IMAX: 8/4

4DX: 6/2

 

Comps (preview to preview)

0.175x KFP4 for $0.8M

0.211x IO2 for $2.7M

0.077x DM4 for $2.1M

6.750x Garfield for $13.0M

 

Average: $1.9M (excluding Garfield)

 

The EA showings were a success, but nothing happening for previews and it's losing ground. I'm hoping it picks up soon.

Could it end up having a massive sales jump after EA is done? Is this normal for movies like this?

[filmlover]

Lionsgate is clearly just offloading their already meager slate this year. Good chance A24 finishes higher for 2024 with a few more titles that could catch on with mainstream audiences (We Live in Time, Heretic, Babygirl) on deck at this point.

[vafrow]

55 minutes ago, CheeseWizard said:

Could it end up having a massive sales jump after EA is done? Is this normal for movies like this?

 

Potentially. I don't have a lot of historical examples to pull from.

 

Ideally, an EA show is designed to get early word of mouth going. It also burns up demand of hardcore audiences that make up preview audiences.

 

I'd also remind that I have a small sample, and audiences for kids films on a Thursday isn't huge during the school year. It's susceptible to wild swings.

 

My schedule is very disjointed this week, and uncertain if I'll get a chance to post daily on this and others.

[CheeseWizard]

2 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

Potentially. I don't have a lot of historical examples to pull from.

 

Ideally, an EA show is designed to get early word of mouth going. It also burns up demand of hardcore audiences that make up preview audiences.

 

I'd also remind that I have a small sample, and audiences for kids films on a Thursday isn't huge during the school year. It's susceptible to wild swings.

 

My schedule is very disjointed this week, and uncertain if I'll get a chance to post daily on this and others.

Isn’t this how the flash went last year? Huge early access showings but pitiful when it came to everything else?

[AniNate]

Mutant Mayhem did have a similarly weird EA setup on its way to a $28mil Fri-Sun weekend. Had decent legs but feel like that might be tougher in the school season and with Wild Robot coming up for TFOne.

 

 

Edited Sunday at 03:10 PM by AniNate