The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[AniNate]

As promised...

 

11/21 PREVIEWS

 

GLADIATOR II
ROBINSON TOWNSHIP	53
VALLEY VIEW	36
TINSELTOWN NORTH CANTON	17
NORTH HILLS	14
TINSELTOWN BOARDMAN	13
BISTRO NORTH CANTON	9
STRONGSVILLE	7
MONROEVILLE MALL	6
CUYAHOGA FALLS	5
TOWNSHIP MARKETPLACE	2
WOOSTER	0

 

Average per theater: 14.7

 

WICKED
NORTH HILLS	251
ROBINSON TOWNSHIP	194
TINSELTOWN NORTH CANTON	187
STRONGSVILLE	90
VALLEY VIEW	76
TINSELTOWN BOARDMAN	63
CUYAHOGA FALLS	52
BISTRO NORTH CANTON	28
MONROEVILLE MALL	25
TOWNSHIP MARKETPLACE	19
WOOSTER	2

 

 

Average per theater: 89.7

 

 

Gladiator got a primetime XD showing at Valley View and Robinson, and that's making a big difference in early presales at those theaters. 

 

Probably won't track all of these theaters the whole way. Strongsville looking like the average barometer for Wicked starting out and North Hills for Gladiator. Lack of a primetime XD for Gladiator at North Hills brought it way back to the pack it seems, usually a hugely presale-heavy theater.

 

Edited Monday at 03:53 PM by AniNate

[Flip]

On 10/12/2024 at 10:48 PM, Flip said:

Venom 3 (T-12)

 

25 showtimes/161 tix sold (+3)

 

Missed AQP Day One (T-12) [???]
.74x Beetlejuice 2 (T-12) [7.25m]
Missed Deadpool 3 (T-12) [???]

 

I hoped it would’ve accelerated more over the weekend. 

Venom 3 (T-11)

 

25 showtimes/169 tix sold (+8)

 

.97x AQP Day One (T-12) [6.60m]
.73x Beetlejuice 2 (T-11) [7.15m]
Missed Deadpool 3 (T-11) [???]

 

Still haven’t seen signs of an explosion in sales. Tomorrow I’ll add BB4

[Eric is Smiling]

Quorum Updates

Heretic T-25: 17% Awareness, 36.02% Interest

Heretic T-53: 17.78% Awareness, 39.94% Interest

Presence T-95: 9.06% Awareness, 35.71% Interest

The Wolf Man T-95: 19.51% Awareness, 40.35% Interest

Mickey 17 T-109: 11.88% Awareness, 33.2% Interest

 

Smile 2 T-4: 53.13% Awareness, 44.18% Interest

Final Awareness: 93% chance of 20M, 71% chance of 30M, 36% chance of 40M

Horror Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 83% chance of 30M, 17% chance of 40M

Final Interest: 46% chance of 10M, 19% chance of 20M, 10% chance of 30M

Horror Interest: 43% chance of 10M, 11% chance of 20M, 4% chance of 30M

 

Conclave T-11: 19.67% Awareness, 30.6% Interest

Final Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 17% chance of 10M

Low Interest: 8% chance of 20M

 

Venom: The Last Dance T-11: 57.35% Awareness, 56.06% Interest

Final Awareness: 71% chance of 30M, 36% chance of 40M, 21% chance of 50M, 14% chance of 60M, 11% chance of 90M, 7% chance of 100M

DC/MCU Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 80% chance of 60M, 60% chance of 90M, 40% chance of 100M

Final Interest: 79% chance of 20M, 61% chance of 30M, 48% chance of 40M, 34% chance of 50M, 22% chance of 60M, 16% chance of 70M, 15% chance of 80M, 12% chance of 90M, 9% chance of 100M

DC/MCU Interest: 100% chance of 20M, 86% chance of 30M, 71% chance of 40M, 57% chance of 50M, 43% chance of 60M, 29% chance of 90M, 14% chance of 100M

 

Gladiator II T-39: 46.34% Awareness, 50.38% Interest

T-30 Awareness: 55% chance of 40M, 37% chance of 50M, 33% chance of 60M, 22% chance of 80M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 40M, 71% chance of 50M, 57% chance of 60M, 29% chance of 80M

T-30 Interest: 75% chance of 30M, 65% chance of 40M, 52% chance of 50M, 37% chance of 60M, 27% chance of 70M, 25% chance of 80M

Tentpole Interest: 100% chance of 30M, 90% chance of 40M, 70% chance of 50M, 60% chance of 60M, 30% chance of 70M, 20% chance of 80M

 

Kraven the Hunter T-60: 26.44% Awareness, 37.41% Interest

T-60 Awareness: 31% chance of 20M, 14% chance of 30M, 9% chance of 40M, 4% chance of 50M, 3% chance of 70M

DC/MCU Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 50% chance of 70M

T-60 Interest: 10% chance of 20M

DC/MCU Interest: 100% chance of 20M

[TheFlatLannister]

FLORIDA 

Gladiator II 

 

Thursday 

 

T-38

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
461	1316	95873	1.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 5:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-38

(0.895x) of Twisters $7.25M

Comps AVG: $7.25M

 

Okay we are back to tracking...

 

Very good start this far out. Definitely could see a breakout with this one. 

[TheFlatLannister]

FLORIDA 

WICKED

 

Thursday 

 

T-38

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
521	4663	109041	4.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 2:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-38

(3.172x) of Twisters $25.69M

 

No good comps this far out, but yeah this is a definite breakout. Don't see it missing $100M OW based on this data. 

[filmpalace]

On 10/13/2024 at 10:28 PM, filmpalace said:

Smile 2 T-4

 

Tickets sold: 145 (+63)

Growth (over the past 8 days): 77%

Theaters: 2

Showtimes: 7

 

4,14x Speak No Evil (T-4) – 5,4M

0,92x Terrifier 3 (T-4) – 2,2M

 

Average: 3,8M

 

Still doing pretty good over in Las Vegas. I’m expecting this to do quite well in its final week. Especially with the T-Mobile deal. Anecdotally speaking, here in The Netherlands, the first Smile sold out theaters that were empty a day beforehand.

Smile 2 T-3

 

Tickets sold: 155 (+10)

Growth: 7%

Theaters: 2

Showtimes: 7

 

3,03x Speak No Evil (T-3) – 4,0M

0,91x Terrifier 3 (T-3) – 2,2M

 

Average: 3,1M

Edited yesterday at 08:43 AM by filmpalace

[filmpalace]

On 10/7/2024 at 9:44 PM, filmpalace said:

Venom: The Last Dance T-17

 

Tickets sold: 271 (+11)

Growth (over the past 2 days): 4%

Theaters: 2

Showtimes: 18

 

1,30x Joker 2 (T-19) – 9,1M

 

Probably at the bottom of the U-curve right now, in terms of growth.

Venom: The Last Dance T-10

 

Tickets sold: 362 (+91)

Growth (over the past 7 days): 34%

Theaters: 2

Showtimes: 18

 

1,26x Joker 2 (T-10) – 8,8M

Edited Monday at 10:05 PM by filmpalace

[Eric is Smiling]

https://deadline.com/2024/10/venom-the-last-dance-box-office-projection-1236115760/

 

Quote

With Warner Bros.’ Joker: Folie à Deux bombing and this past weekend’s overall ticket sales being off 43% from the same period a year ago, the October box office might feel kind of sluggish.

 

It’s at this point in time that we say, where are you Venom? A nation’s box office turns its lonely eyes to you. Literally. Tracking has Sony‘s black clad fanged Spider-Man antihero (yes, he’s from the Spider-verse, OK?!) threequel, Venom: The Last Dance, set to do $70M opening when it hits theaters on Oct. 25.

 

True, that’s the lowest start in the Venom trilogy, behind 2021’s Venom: Let There Be Carnage ($90M, third best for October) and the 2018 original’s start of $80.2M (fourth best for the month), but after the crater left from Joker 2, heck, we’ll take a $70M start. Let’s hope that projection doesn’t buckle. At that level, Venom 3 would be the second best opening in 2024 for a comic-book feature after Deadpool & Wolverine‘s $211.4M.

 

Currently men under 25 are leading the way in unaided awareness (that category where those being polled organically bring up the title of the movie without being prompted in a survey) and first choice. Men over 25 are the second-strongest demo in both categories.

 

 

[Grand Cine]

13 minutes ago, Eric the Clown said:

https://deadline.com/2024/10/venom-the-last-dance-box-office-projection-1236115760/

 

 

It's around the result i expect , 70-75M . Not too bad , only -15-20% drop vs last movie , -5-10% vs the first one

[leoh]

1 hour ago, Eric the Clown said:

https://deadline.com/2024/10/venom-the-last-dance-box-office-projection-1236115760/

 

 

Deadline reported that  ‘Let There Be Carnage’ would open with 60 million.

 

LTBC opened with over 90 million.

 

So if they are reporting now a 70 million projection, this confirms it can open with 100M 😄

 

https://deadline.com/2021/09/venom-let-there-be-carnage-opening-weekend-box-office-preview-1234846403/amp/

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited yesterday at 01:12 AM by leoh

[filmlover]

Venom is certain to be #1 for three weeks (due to everyone avoiding early November due to the election) if nothing else.

[AniNate]

First weekend of November actually does look like a step up from last year with HERE. Nothing significant came out last year and Five Nights had a massive drop.

[AnthonyJPHer]

I have 75-80m for Venom: The Last Dance if it preforms within expectations. If it preforms more like Let There Be Carnage, I could see something more like 95-105m.

[filmlover]

12 minutes ago, AniNate said:

First weekend of November actually does look like a step up from last year with HERE. Nothing significant came out last year and Five Nights had a massive drop.

I'm honestly not feeling Here unfortunately. It seems like a difficult movie to market (an entire film told from the perspective of a living room) and adult dramas haven't had it easy recently, on top of that the election is going to be overshadowing news across all entertainment domains (but everyone has known that the whole time and scheduled the movie calendar accordingly). The good news for it is that at least it's not being totally dumped like Juror #2 apparently is.

[AniNate]

Elections really aren't typically a big box office distraction, everyone's just irrationally anxious about it this year. Venom at least shouldn't drop as badly as Five Nights did if the prior movies are an indication.  

[HummingLemon496]

I can't believe Venom is coming in just ten days, guessing $80-90M

Edited yesterday at 01:39 AM by HummingLemon496

[Ryan C]

On 10/1/2024 at 12:20 AM, Ryan C said:

Smile 2

 

T-16

 

Thursday: 429 Seats Sold (From 13 Theaters)

 

Taken as of 12:15AM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: I've long thought that this sequel will be a big breakout, so I hope this one picks up some steam in the next few weeks. As of now though, this isn't looking too bad for the first day of pre-sales. I would expect this one to be a lot more walk-up heavy as I don't think the fanbase for the first Smile would be the one to buy tickets as soon as they go on sale. 

 

We'll see, but I have confidence that this is going to be a solid hit. 

 

Smile 2

 

T-3

 

Thursday: 1,217 Seats Sold (180.4% Increase From Last Time)

From 15 Theaters

 

Taken as of 9:30 PM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: About 36% of the seats sold right now are for the "Fan Event" screenings, but it doesn't really matter as these start on the same day as the actual Thursday previews (which begin at 7:00 PM). 

 

Anyways, I'm slightly less confident about this than I was a few weeks ago. Unfortunately, nothing's really pointing towards this becoming a breakout horror sequel (ala Terrifier 3), but I'd still expect an opening on par with the first movie ($22.6M). At best, maybe it can hit $30M, but that'll depend on strong walk-up business (which the first Smile had) and hopefully good reception. Though Paramount holding the reviews until this weekend isn't very encouraging. 

 

We'll see how this does in the next few days (and when more showtimes are added), but I wouldn't expect some kind of crazy jump or anything like that. 

Edited yesterday at 01:47 AM by Ryan C

[emoviefan]

43 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Elections really aren't typically a big box office distraction, everyone's just irrationally anxious about it this year. Venom at least shouldn't drop as badly as Five Nights did if the prior movies are an indication.  

Trying not to get political but one of the candidates is making it pretty easy to get anxious,. Do not expect a response that will derail the thread.  Just putting it out there. As for the movie topic Venom should have a pretty good 4 week run as the only tentpole release until the Glicked weekend

[wattage]

37 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Trying not to get political but one of the candidates is making it pretty easy to get anxious,. Do not expect a response that will derail the thread.  Just putting it out there. As for the movie topic Venom should have a pretty good 4 week run as the only tentpole release until the Glicked weekend

You're ignoring the soon to be box office juggernaut Red One! 

 

Jokes aside it being the first new film in Hollywood imposed a dry period with stars who are recognizable and "bringing in the new season" with it being a Christmas film it might be enough to get it to number 1 on its opening weekend. 

[Pinacolada]

1 hour ago, HummingLemon496 said:

I can't believe Venom is coming in just ten days, guessing $80-90M

They really have not started the marketing machine for it at all other than TV Spots. No Tom Hardy interviews or promotion at all