The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Grand Cine]

7 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Speaking of beasts....

 

'Moana 2' Eyeing $100M+ Thanksgiving Opening: Box Office (deadline.com)

Big projections day but i think we can up this projection ( a lot)

 

 

[AniNate]

It does honestly seem like a low projection to me but conservative Deadline estimates are on brand, especially when the movie would make a huge profit off them anyway. Want to give themselves as much leeway as possible for positive spin.

 

 

Edited 7 hours ago by AniNate

[vafrow]

18 minutes ago, AniNate said:

It does honestly seem like a low projection to me but conservative Deadline estimates are on brand, especially when the movie would make a huge profit off them anyway. Want to give themselves as much leeway as possible for positive spin.

 

$100M seems like the perfect Deadline prediction here. It sounds big, but actually isn't because of the 5-day effect. But most people don't know that, so the headline still draws clicks.

 

But it's a safe prediction, so they don't overestimate so everyone is happy.

 

 

[leoh]

13 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

$100M seems like the perfect Deadline prediction here. It sounds big, but actually isn't because of the 5-day effect. But most people don't know that, so the headline still draws clicks.

 

But it's a safe prediction, so they don't overestimate so everyone is happy.

 

 

When do Moana pre sales start?

[vafrow]

14 minutes ago, leoh said:

When do Moana pre sales start?

 

It's not listed on the spreadsheet that consolidates it, but I thought I saw a post at some point where someone flagged a date for it. I'm happy if it doesn't start until after Venom though.

[TalismanRing]

1 hour ago, vafrow said:

 

$100M seems like the perfect Deadline prediction here. It sounds big, but actually isn't because of the 5-day effect. But most people don't know that, so the headline still draws clicks.

 

But it's a safe prediction, so they don't overestimate so everyone is happy.

 

 

 

Also at $100M+ (Quorum technically sees $105M-$115M),

 

So they not only got this from Quorum (eh) they then low-balled it

[Grand Cine]

9 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Speaking of beasts....

 

'Moana 2' Eyeing $100M+ Thanksgiving Opening: Box Office (deadline.com)

Big projections day but i think we can up this projection ( a lot)

 

 

[dudalb]

26 minutes ago, Grand Cine said:

Big projections day but i think we can up this projection ( a lot)

 

 

I think that another big film aimed at the same audince..Wicked..is opening against Moana 2 is causing a lot of the predictors to be conservative in their estimates. Simply no way of really telling  how much Wicked will cut into Moana 2 business..or vice versa for that mattar.

You also have GLadiator 2, but that is aimed, obviously, as a different audience.

[AniNate]

I thought it might've been before but with that 2 hour and 40 minute runtime for Wicked, I don't imagine it'll be a real serious threat to Moana box office. They might both be PG but Wicked's core audience is still older and less family driven than Moana's. 

[leoh]

2 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

It's not listed on the spreadsheet that consolidates it, but I thought I saw a post at some point where someone flagged a date for it. I'm happy if it doesn't start until after Venom though.

 

thanks! It seems it’s def after Venom The Last Dance release

 

[misterpepp]

On 10/15/2024 at 8:23 PM, misterpepp said:

Godzilla Minus One back in theaters for at least a full week on November 1, I'll look around for the sale date.

 

Forgot to mention that I got the date yesterday, oops. They went on sale today along with Hitpig.

[leoh]

1 minute ago, misterpepp said:

 

Forgot to mention that I got the date yesterday, oops. They went on sale today along with Hitpig.

no PLF for it I guess, right?

[misterpepp]

1 minute ago, leoh said:

no PLF for it I guess, right?

 

Doesn't look like it, no.

 

Will make a note that some theaters are alternating between the original version and the Minus Color version, but Fandango doesn't seem to be listing any difference between those showtimes, so make sure you're going to the right version if you're heading out to this.

[AniNate]

They really should just combine all the screenings under one showtime block. Aggravating how all the "early access" or "fan event" screenings are under completely separate pages.

[TheFlatLannister]

On 10/15/2024 at 8:27 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

Venom: The Last Dance

 

Thursday 

 

T-9

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
674	4819	141395	3.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-9

(1.049x) of Joker Folie a Deux $6.61M

(0.807x) of Dune 2 $7.50M

(0.180x) of Deadpool x Wolverine $6.93M

Comps AVG: $7.01M

 

Looks like $7M previews to me. Like i said a few weeks ago, not bad but also not great. 

 

FLORIDA 

 

Venom: The Last Dance

 

Thursday 

 

T-6

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
674	5285	141395	3.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

168

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-6

(1.061x) of Joker Folie a Deux $6.69M

(0.760x) of Dune 2 $7.07M

(0.176x) of Deadpool x Wolverine $6.78M

Comps AVG: $6.85M

 

Slipped against comps which is fine. No signs of an acceleration yet. Looks like $6M-$7M previews to me. Don't see how it gets to $60M+ OW from there

 

[HummingLemon496]

41 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

Venom: The Last Dance

 

Thursday 

 

T-6

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
674	5285	141395	3.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

168

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-6

(1.061x) of Joker Folie a Deux $6.69M

(0.760x) of Dune 2 $7.07M

(0.176x) of Deadpool x Wolverine $6.78M

Comps AVG: $6.85M

 

Slipped against comps which is fine. No signs of an acceleration yet. Looks like $6M-$7M previews to me. Don't see how it gets to $60M+ OW from there

 

This is the bottom of the parabola, trust the process 

 

Edited 2 hours ago by HummingLemon496

[leoh]

53 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

Venom: The Last Dance

 

Thursday 

 

T-6

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
674	5285	141395	3.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

168

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-6

(1.061x) of Joker Folie a Deux $6.69M

(0.760x) of Dune 2 $7.07M

(0.176x) of Deadpool x Wolverine $6.78M

Comps AVG: $6.85M

 

Slipped against comps which is fine. No signs of an acceleration yet. Looks like $6M-$7M previews to me. Don't see how it gets to $60M+ OW from there

 

After three Venom movies, I learned we should never rule out massive walk ups for a Venom movie since the first two ones had them. Today they had a huge panel at NY Comic Comic and Sony is now making the final marketing push. I’m expecting huge boost in pre sales next week and big walk ups, this was exactly what happened in the first two movies. However, we never know… big walk ups may happen again for the third movie but they might not happen either. Curious to see how it goes from now on😄

Edited 2 hours ago by leoh

[Pinacolada]

20 minutes ago, leoh said:

After three Venom movies, I learned we should never rule out massive walk ups for a Venom movie since the first two ones had them. Today they had a huge panel at NY Comic Comic and Sony is now making the final marketing push. I’m expecting huge boost in pre sales next week and big walk ups, this was exactly what happened in the first two movies. However, we never know… big walk ups may happen again for the third movie but they might not happen either. Curious to see how it goes from now on😄

I agree but I really am beginning to get nervous about the walkups being insanely good like the previous 2 movies to get Venom 3 to the range that the first 2 opened to. I think it looks fun enough, but there really is no hook to this movie. The first one had the hook of "Tom Hardy in the very first Venom movie (other than Spider-Man 3 of course, but people wanted to see the big hulking Venom they were more familiar with). The 2nd movie had "There's Carnage this time" who's massively popular, and it had the No Way Home buzz. This really has nothing. The villain is just a bunch of spider aliens. Knull means nothing to the vast majority of people, and the people who do know him know that he's probably in the movie for 1 or 2 scenes and it's likely just Sony shenanigans.

 

Let's see on Monday. If the reactions from the premiere are "It's pretty fun. It's the best one", then I can see a spike. If it's more of the same, I can totally see it disappointing. 

 

The good news for it is no competition for weeks, so it should have better legs than the previous movies 

[Eric is Smiling]

Quorum Updates

Red One T-29: 41.94% Awareness, 46.46% Interest

September 5th T-57: 12.67% Awareness, 33.83% Interest

Den of Thieves: Pantera T-85: 22.52% Awareness, 35.44% Interest

In the Grey T-92: 10.1% Awareness, 33.73% Interest

With Love T-113: 7.1% Awareness, 26.32% Interest

Alto Knights T-155: 2% Awareness, 28.17% Interest

Thunderbolts* T-197: 29.71% Awareness, 45.08% Interest

 

Smile 2 T-1: 60.06% Awareness, 46.42% Interest

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 90% chance of 30M, 86% chance of 40M

Horror Awareness: 100% chance of 40M

Final Interest: 46% chance of 10M, 19% chance of 20M, 10% chance of 30M

Horror Interest: 43% chance of 10M, 11% chance of 20M, 4% chance of 30M

 

Venom: The Last Dance T-8: 60.01% Awareness, 56.35% Interest

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 90% chance of 30M, 86% chance of 40M, 76% chance of 50M, 59% chance of 60M, 48% chance of 70M, 38% chance of 80M, 28% chance of 100M

DC/MCU Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 83% chance of 40M, 67% chance of 50M, 50% chance of 100M

Final Interest: 79% chance of 20M, 61% chance of 30M, 48% chance of 40M, 34% chance of 50M, 22% chance of 60M, 16% chance of 70M, 15% chance of 80M, 12% chance of 90M, 9% chance of 100M

DC/MCU Interest: 100% chance of 20M, 86% chance of 30M, 71% chance of 40M, 57% chance of 50M, 43% chance of 60M, 29% chance of 90M, 14% chance of 100M

 

Wicked T-36: 56.87% Awareness, 49.75% Interest

T-30 Awareness: 95% chance of 30M, 90% chance of 40M, 81% chance of 50M, 57% chance of 60M, 52% chance of 70M, 38% chance of 80M, 33% chance of 100M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 83% chance of 50M, 67% chance of 60M, 50% chance of 70M, 33% chance of 80M, 17% chance of 100M

T-30 Interest: 57% chance of 10M, 34% chance of 20M, 20% chance of 30M, 10% chance of 40M, 7% chance of 50M, 5% chance of 70M, 4% chance of 80M, 2% chance of 90M, 2% chance of 100M

Tentpole Interest: 100% chance of 10M, 87% chance of 20M, 62% chance of 30M, 50% chance of 40M, 37% chance of 50M, 25% chance of 80M, 12% chance of 100M

[charlie Jatinder]

7 hours ago, AniNate said:

Speaking of beasts....

 

'Moana 2' Eyeing $100M+ Thanksgiving Opening: Box Office (deadline.com)

100+ 5 days will be very disappointing.

 

Frozen 2 did $123M on day 6-10, if they were first 5 days, would have done $175M+, may be even $200M 

Edited 36 minutes ago by charlie Jatinder