The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[filmlover]

Moana 2 exploding to $150M+ 5-day would be pretty astounding. Especially for a movie no one even knew existed back at the beginning of the year.

[AniNate]

3 hours ago, filmlover said:

Moana 2 exploding to $150M+ 5-day would be pretty astounding. Especially for a movie no one even knew existed back at the beginning of the year.

 

Well, I don't think that matters a whole lot. I don't imagine many of the GA were even aware of Inside Out 2 until the first teaser dropped last year. As far as they're concerned this has always been Disney Animation's planned 2024 release, and the marketing campaign has more or less been consistent if not actually started a little earlier than usual, with that tease spot that dropped when the initial announcement was made.

 

 

Edited Sunday at 04:37 AM by AniNate

[Caption Action 3]

Anora selling very well at the six locations it is in this weekend in NYC and Los Angeles:

1. AMC Burbank
2. Alamo Drafthouse Downtown Brooklyn
3. Angelika New York
4. AMC The Grove
5. AMC Century City
6. Unknown

Checked open caption screenings at three of the six (the 6th does not have any open caption screenings) and it is selling well for tomorrow's open caption screenings. Was not planning to track it but can check tomorrow and report if any of the open caption screenings sell out. So far, it looks like Alamo Drafthouse Downtown Brooklyn's open caption screening may sell out tomorrow. This is going to be one to track if and when it goes wide.

 

Still busy building the tracking spreadsheet for Wicked. Total presale numbers still low, but here and there there are hints that this will be a box office success.

Edited Sunday at 10:05 AM by Caption Action 3
Corrected errrors

[vale9001]

Wicked T-36: 56.87% Awareness, 49.75% Interest

T-30 Awareness: 95% chance of 30M, 90% chance of 40M, 81% chance of 50M, 57% chance of 60M, 52% chance of 70M, 38% chance of 80M, 33% chance of 100M

 

 

if your predictions are on point is Quorum algorithm totally unable to track female driven movies? I rememeber they were like "100% chance of 60M" for Barbie or something like that 😅

 

I don't remember awareness-interest predictions about It ends with us  

Edited Sunday at 06:49 AM by vale9001

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Venom: The Last Dance , T-6, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews

 

Total Sales: 216

New Sales: 37

7 day average growth rate*: 12.6%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 19

Tickets per Showtime: 10.8

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 18/4

Early Evening: 147/8

Late Evening: 51/7

 

Preview Sales by Format

Regular: 0/0

Dolby: 10/1

Dolby 3D: 52/6

IMAX: 63/4

IMAX 3D: 5/2

4DX 3D: 10/3

VIP: 76/3

 

Comps 

1.137x Joker 2 for $7.2M

3.176x GB:FE for $14.9M

0.947x HG:BoSS for $5.4M

1.982x Aquaman 2 for $8.9M

Average: $9.1M

 

  I added a 7 day average growth rate. I thought this might be more useful than the daily figure (which I took out). Small market is more subject to variances, and this smooths that out.

 

As for results, this continues to run strong, which is counter to what others are seeing. A year into tracking my particular data set and I still struggle to identify why certain films over and under index. But, it's doing well against comps, and is growing at an elevated rate.

 

Venom: The Last Dance , T-5, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews

 

Total Sales: 252

New Sales: 36

7 day average growth rate*: 14.0%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 19

Tickets per Showtime: 12.6

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 25/4

Early Evening: 169/8

Late Evening: 58/7

 

Preview Sales by Format

Regular: 0/0

Dolby: 17/1

Dolby 3D: 57/6

IMAX: 73/4

IMAX 3D: 5/2

4DX 3D: 10/3

VIP: 90/3

 

Comps 

1.217x Joker 2 for $7.7M

3.316x GB:FE for $15.6M

1.012x HG:BoSS for $5.8M

2.083x Aquaman 2 for $9.4M

Average: $9.6M

 

Continued upward trajectory against comps. Based on growth rate, I don't see this slowing down at all in this market.

[M37]

11 hours ago, Cooper Legion said:

On the other hand as usual I do not agree that nominal cash is more meaningful than tickets when it comes to setting baselines or ceilings of historical precedence.

I’ve never argued that gross is more relevant than admits; in fact, my perspective on using non-adjusted gross figures comes from many years of primarily caring about underlying attendance numbers, not the resulting $ value of most box office watchers.
 

Spoiler

I referenced them in my long post, but I was there for 1999 Toy Story and 2000 Grinch, and even if Moana 2 breaks the TG 5-day record, it’s still not going to approach the admit level of either of those releases 

And I’ve watched those admit numbers continue to decline post-pandemic, even as the grossing level has somewhat stabilized. The market is (has already) shifting from a GA, Everyman entertainment outing, to a more expensive, selective, event crowd 
 

Now I don’t mean to imply it’s a consistent, 1:1 direct $ comp to pre-pandemic, as the audience shrinkage is not uniform, and high demand films in particular can draw in more casuals who otherwise have removed themselves from the audience pool. But I do think it’s useful in helping to manage expectations, giving perspective on where the “normal” range should be, even if some films (or combination of them) is going to break through that soft ceiling; we just should not be in the habit of banking on a 90th percentile outcome to occur regularly 

[justnumbers]

Yeah admits is pretty irrelevant today other than to compare to something a few year ago or just a plain fetish.

 

You don't have to be very smart to know that we live in a very different reality, the dollar is different and and most of all, audience is different. They're not there anymore like they used to and will never be.

 

What matters is a movie doing well in today's expectations and in mid-big budget movies to be profitable. I couldn't give 2 shits if the next Avengers makes exactly the same (or even 1.5B-1.9B) as Infinity War in today's ATP. It still did huge, highly profitable and the budget at most is the same. Fuck do I care how many admits it did less. (Just an example. I don't think Doomsday will make +2B). 

Edited Sunday at 11:22 AM by justnumbers

[Cooper Legion]

26 minutes ago, M37 said:

Now I don’t mean to imply it’s a consistent, 1:1 direct $ comp to pre-pandemic, as the audience shrinkage is not uniform, and high demand films in particular can draw in more casuals who otherwise have removed themselves from the audience pool.

Yeah would agree with this. "K shaped recovery" as they say. Some movies are doing worse business nominally than they would a decade ago -- declining moviegoing stmosphere more than counteracting atp increase -- but I think on the high end many are doing similar admits so boosted gross.

 

So as far as "floors" go, well, things get pretty grisly. But if people are exploring more optimistic scenarios because they feel bullish about a particular movie, then hey -- feel free to crack out those TS2 grinch adjusted figures and see what doing various %s would getcha

[M37]

1 hour ago, Cooper Legion said:

Yeah would agree with this. "K shaped recovery" as they say. Some movies are doing worse business nominally than they would a decade ago -- declining moviegoing stmosphere more than counteracting atp increase -- but I think on the high end many are doing similar admits so boosted gross.

 

So as far as "floors" go, well, things get pretty grisly. But if people are exploring more optimistic scenarios because they feel bullish about a particular movie, then hey -- feel free to crack out those TS2 grinch adjusted figures and see what doing various %s would getcha

I wouldn’t say similar admits, it’s still down overall even at top end (and shifted more towards larger markets) but certainly much closer for cultural phenomenons like DP3 or Barbie than your average adult drama, so grossing potential elevated slightly 

 

As for the second part … See that’s the thing: when I think “animated sequel going crazy for TG”, I imagine TS2 (adjusted to like ~2017 BO$*) or Frozen 2, and even though I’m optimistic about Moana 2, I don’t think the hype & anticipation is on that level, or even IO2. More like “decently better than Ralph Breaks Internet”, so $100M+ in play, but not locked or a lowball, which is why I’m pushing back a bit 

*(Feel free to do the math there!)

 

[Cooper Legion]

12 minutes ago, M37 said:

*(Feel free to do the math there!)

 

TS2 nominal 57.5/80.5, so in 2017 atp 101.5/142ish. In 2024 126/176ish (I will note that that imo this undersells how big ts2 equivalent would actually be, but that's another topic)

 

I also am not personally on the full bull case for Moana. If people want to say "I think Moana 2 will be as big as io2/f2, so near 100 would disappoint me" then what I'm saying is "well, I dunno about it actually being in that league, but I do agree with what numbers it would correspond to if it was."

Edited Sunday at 01:26 PM by Cooper Legion

[MightyDargon]

I don't give a crap about admits because that doesn't get movies cancelled or the studios in deeper trouble. I DO care about the fact that a lot of genres are in decline and there's no floor for when a movie does poorly anymore.

[AniNate]

I don't think Moana will be IO2 big, which is why I'm saying 130m is my expectation rather than 200m.

 

That is what "decently better than wreck it Ralph 2" is in this inflation impacted market, so yes, 100mi is a low-ball projection imo and you are not going to change my mind on this. 

 

 

Edited Sunday at 03:14 PM by AniNate

[AniNate]

For the record the Toy Story 2 5-day adjusted for inflation would be $150mil today. So my expectations are lower than that movie as well.

[Spidey Freak]

23 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

What do you mean by "even". Both original IO and Frozen grossed way bigger than Moana. Not a surprise Disney doesn't try to match the marketing scale of the former two. 

 

Moana has been Disney+'s most successful movie by a stretch. Sing, at Illumination's peak popularity era, was also a major reason why it got capped at the knees during its BO run, which is why more people discovered it at home.

 

If they push Moana 2 enough, it has a possibility of outgrossing Frozen 2. Ofc, at the start of the year, Disney had no idea it was going to be a movie, much less a theatrical movie, which is what's being reflected in the pre-determined marketing spends. Mufasa was going to be their OG big holiday movie after all.

[AniNate]

I don't agree that the marketing hasn't been there. Maybe it's in a bit of a lull right now because they're waiting until the Wicked buzz subsides, but it got a HEAVY push during the Olympics and all the awareness metrics so far bear out strong numbers.

 

 

Edited Sunday at 04:44 PM by AniNate

[filmpalace]

On 10/15/2024 at 12:05 AM, filmpalace said:

Venom: The Last Dance T-10

 

Tickets sold: 362 (+91)

Growth (over the past 7 days): 34%

Theaters: 2

Showtimes: 18

 

1,26x Joker 2 (T-10) – 8,8M

Venom: The Last Dance T-4

 

Tickets sold: 458 (+96)

Growth (over the past 6 days): 27%

Theaters: 2

Showtimes: 17

 

1,17x Joker 2 (T-4) - 7,6M

 

Does anybody know what Joker 2's true Thursday preview gross was? At first I used 7M, but apparently that included the fan screenings on the Monday prior. For now, I’m using 6.5M, since I believe that’s what @TheFlatLannister is using.

Edited Sunday at 07:29 PM by filmpalace

[vafrow]

2 hours ago, filmpalace said:

Venom: The Last Dance T-4

 

Tickets sold: 458 (+96)

Growth (over the past 6 days): 27%

Theaters: 2

Showtimes: 17

 

1,17x Joker 2 (T-10) – 7,6M

 

Does anybody know what Joker 2's true Thursday preview gross was? At first I used 7M, but apparently that included the fan screenings on the Monday prior. For now, I’m using 6.5M, since I believe that’s what @TheFlatLannister is using.

 

I have $6.3M as true Thursday based on an estimate that was posted here, but reporting on that figure was spotty.

[AnthonyJPHer]

6 hours ago, Spidey Freak said:

Mufasa was going to be their OG big holiday movie after all.

Eh, not really. That was supposed to be Avatar: Fire and Ash before it was pushed back to December 2025. Mufasa was originally supposed to be in July 2024 but got pushed back due to the strikes.
 

Damn, I just realized it would have gotten crushed by Inside Out 2, Despicable Me 4, Twisters, and Deadpool & Wolverine in its original release date of July 5, 2024. 

[jeffthehat]

4 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

I have $6.3M as true Thursday based on an estimate that was posted here, but reporting on that figure was spotty.

It looked ~$5.5m on the morning of T-0 in my in my sample. It could've been more like 6 but I'll probably use $6.3m. Don't think it matters a ton end of day 

[AniNate]

50 minutes ago, AnthonyJPHer said:

Damn, I just realized it would have gotten crushed by Inside Out 2, Despicable Me 4, Twisters, and Deadpool & Wolverine in its original release date of July 5, 2024. 

 

Well in that timeline Deadpool also comes out in May instead.