The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Flip]

On 10/18/2024 at 10:26 PM, Flip said:

Venom 3 (T-6)

 

25 showtimes/238 tix sold (+16)

 

Missed AQP Day One (T-6) [???]
.74x Beetlejuice 2 (T-6) [7.25m]
1.34x Alien Romulus (T-6) [8.71m]

1.75x Bad Boys 4 (T-6) [10.28m]

 

Meh day. The best hope for this is to have an insane final push like BB4 did (T-0 was 5.32x T-6). Something like Beetlejuice did 2.70x T-6 on T-0 so Venom will hope to outperform that by a fair amount.

Venom 3 (T-4) 2 days of sales

 

25 showtimes/326 tix sold (+88)

 

1.16x AQP Day One (T-4) [7.89m]
.84x Beetlejuice 2 (T-4) [8.23m]
1.43x Alien Romulus (T-4) [9.30m]

1.82x Bad Boys 4 (T-4) [10.69m]

 

 

Very good sales over the weekend, as you can see it grew against every comp. Tomorrow it needs to sell 68 tickets to keep in step with BB4, I think as long as it sells 60-65 that’s a good day.

[Flip]

On 10/18/2024 at 10:28 PM, Flip said:

Venom 3 Friday (T-7)

 

31 showtimes/198 tix sold (+23)

 

.52x Beetlejuice 2 (T-7) [14.70m]

Missed Alien Romulus (T-7) [???]

 

Friday looking stronger than previews

Venom 3 Friday (T-5) 2 days of sales

 

31 showtimes/271 tix sold (+73)

 

Missed Beetlejuice 2 (T-5) [???]

Missed Alien Romulus (T-5) [???]

.40x Inside Out 2 (T-5) [20.22m]

[Flip]

On 10/17/2024 at 9:22 PM, Flip said:

Gladiator 2 (T-35) 3 days of sales

 

14 showtimes/83 tix sold (+2)

1.20x AQP Day One (T-28) [8.16m]
Missed Twisters (T-35) [???]

 

Looks like this will pace like twisters: really small growth until the final 2 and a half weeks. If so it’s probably heading for 7.5m previews, give or take a million

Gladiator 2 (T-32) 3 days of sales

 

14 showtimes/103 tix sold (+20)

1.49x AQP Day One (T-28) [10.13m]
2.34x Twisters (T-32) [17.55m]
 

This had a very strong weekend of sales. maybe it might do better far out (up to T-20) in terms of pace than Twisters

[leoh]

34 minutes ago, Flip said:

Venom 3 (T-4) 2 days of sales

 

25 showtimes/326 tix sold (+88)

 

1.16x AQP Day One (T-4) [7.89m]
.84x Beetlejuice 2 (T-4) [8.23m]
1.43x Alien Romulus (T-4) [9.30m]

1.82x Bad Boys 4 (T-4) [10.69m]

 

 

Very good sales over the weekend, as you can see it grew against every comp. Tomorrow it needs to sell 68 tickets to keep in step with BB4, I think as long as it sells 60-65 that’s a good day.

 

Good news then, your comps are already pointing to more than 9M on Thursday previews and showing great boost in pre sales, this matches perfectly with @vafrow MTC4 tracking.

Edited Monday at 03:50 AM by leoh

[vale9001]

3 hours ago, Flip said:

Gladiator 2 (T-32) 3 days of sales

 

14 showtimes/103 tix sold (+20)

1.49x AQP Day One (T-28) [10.13m]
2.34x Twisters (T-32) [17.55m]
 

This had a very strong weekend of sales. maybe it might do better far out (up to T-20) in terms of pace than Twisters

 

 

probably the effect of the first reactions. This could mean solid reviews could make the difference for this movie. 

[vafrow]

22 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Venom: The Last Dance , T-5, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews

 

Total Sales: 252

New Sales: 36

7 day average growth rate*: 14.0%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 19

Tickets per Showtime: 12.6

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 25/4

Early Evening: 169/8

Late Evening: 58/7

 

Preview Sales by Format

Regular: 0/0

Dolby: 17/1

Dolby 3D: 57/6

IMAX: 73/4

IMAX 3D: 5/2

4DX 3D: 10/3

VIP: 90/3

 

Comps 

1.217x Joker 2 for $7.7M

3.316x GB:FE for $15.6M

1.012x HG:BoSS for $5.8M

2.083x Aquaman 2 for $9.4M

Average: $9.6M

 

Continued upward trajectory against comps. Based on growth rate, I don't see this slowing down at all in this market.

 

Venom: The Last Dance , T-4, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews

 

Total Sales: 278

New Sales: 26

7 day average growth rate*: 13.7%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 19

Tickets per Showtime: 13.9

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 21/4

Early Evening: 187/8

Late Evening: 70/7

 

Preview Sales by Format

Regular: 0/0

Dolby: 13/1

Dolby 3D: 70/6

IMAX: 81/4

IMAX 3D: 5/2

4DX 3D: 10/3

VIP: 99/3

 

Comps 

1.203x Joker 2 for $7.6M

3.349x GB:FE for $15.7M

0.949x HG:BoSS for $5.5M

2.044x Aquaman 2 for $9.2M

Average: $9.5M

 

This fell of pace slightly after trending above all comps so consistently all week. No concern, but interesting to observe.

[vafrow]

On 10/13/2024 at 6:31 AM, vafrow said:

 

Gladiator II, D5, T-40, western GTA (Southern Ontario), Thursday previews 

 

Total Sales: 39

New Sales: 3

Growth: 8%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 10

Tickets per Showtime: 3.9

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: N

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 6/2

Early Evening: 23/5

Late Evening: 10/3

 

Preview Sales by Format

Regular: 18/6

IMAX: 21/4

 

Comps

0.229x Dune 2 for $2.3M

2.786x KOTPOTA for $13.9M

0.639x Joker 2 for $4.0M

1.857x BB:RoD for $10.9M

 

Average: $7.8M

 

Another steady day.

 

 

Gladiator II, T-32, western GTA (Southern Ontario), Thursday previews 

 

Total Sales: 65

7 day average daily growth: 7%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 15

Tickets per Showtime: 4.3

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: N

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 7/3

Early Evening: 41/8

Late Evening: 17/4

 

Preview Sales by Format

Regular: 25/9

IMAX: 34/4

VIP: 6/2

 

Comps

Not available 

 

I'm overdue on an update here.

 

It's too far out to have relevant T minus comps, so just reporting on growth rate.

 

This has stayed strong, with recent reactions helping give a boost over the weekend. 7% daily growth this far out is remarkable.

[M37]

Again, only semi-tracking related, but relevant

 

Spoiler

Posted a longer write up in the weekend thread (that I won't rehash here), but though I would share the data (for posterity or something)

 

Chart updated due to formula error, caught by Charlie

 

 

 

Edited Monday at 02:50 PM by M37

[Shawn Robbins]

On 10/18/2024 at 12:30 PM, Grand Cine said:

Damn , good projections for Gladiator and Incredible for Wicked .

Agreed. Hopefully these hold up better than Joker and Venom's did. I have more confidence in the models on these (ala Beetlejuice, Twisters and Deadpool a few months ago) since they aren't risky comic book movies and have relatively definable hooks (and for other reasons), but time will tell.

 

Feels more and more like moviegoing is seasonal and event-driven for many and I expect those two to bring in some of the casual audience that hasn't shown up for more than three or four other movies this year.

 

Wicked, specifically, is giving me yesteryear vibes of Hunger Games/Potter/Twilight-level interest from a bigger fan base than those of us outside its target audience may have been realizing. (I was particularly underestimating Twilight's popularity back in the day before it exploded in 2008 and 2009, as @baumerloves to remind me of. )

[Eric is Smiling]

Quorum Updates

Heretic T-18: 17.44% Awareness, 34.95% Interest

Heart Eyes T-109: 10.17% Awareness, 30.83% Interest

Captain America: Brave New World T-116: 51.44% Awareness, 57.09% Interest

Snow White T-151: 45.49% Awareness, 47.73% Interest

Black Bag T-144: 5.31% Awareness, 30.53% Interest

The Accountant 2 T-186: 27.22% Awareness, 39.92% Interest

 

Conclave T-4: 22.67% Awareness, 31.55% Interest

Final Awareness: 17% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 13% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 17% chance of 10M

Low Interest: 8% chance of 20M

 

Venom: The Last Dance T-4: 61.07% Awareness, 54.85% Interest

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 87% chance of 30M, 83% chance of 40M, 73% chance of 50M, 57% chance of 60M, 47% chance of 70M, 37% chance of 80M, 27% chance of 100M

DC/MCU Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 83% chance of 40M, 67% chance of 50M, 50% chance of 100M

Final Interest: 79% chance of 20M, 61% chance of 30M, 48% chance of 40M, 34% chance of 50M, 22% chance of 60M, 16% chance of 70M, 15% chance of 80M, 12% chance of 90M, 9% chance of 100M

DC/MCU Interest: 100% chance of 20M, 86% chance of 30M, 71% chance of 40M, 57% chance of 50M, 43% chance of 60M, 29% chance of 90M, 14% chance of 100M

 

Here T-11: 25.64% Awareness, 40.77% Interest

Final Awareness: 17% chance of 10M

Medium Awareness: 20% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 47% chance of 10M

Medium Interest: 53% chance of 10M

 

Gladiator II T-32: 50.56% Awareness, 51.75% Interest

T-30 Awareness: 95% chance of 30M, 90% chance of 40M, 81% chance of 50M, 57% chance of 60M, 52% chance of 70M, 38% chance of 80M, 33% chance of 100M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 83% chance of 50M, 67% chance of 60M, 50% chance of 70M, 33% chance of 80M, 17% chance of 100M

T-30 Interest: 75% chance of 30M, 65% chance of 40M, 52% chance of 50M, 37% chance of 60M, 27% chance of 70M, 25% chance of 80M

Tentpole Interest: 100% chance of 30M, 90% chance of 40M, 70% chance of 50M, 60% chance of 60M, 30% chance of 70M, 20% chance of 80M

[keysersoze123]

16 hours ago, Flip said:

Gladiator 2 (T-32) 3 days of sales

 

14 showtimes/103 tix sold (+20)

1.49x AQP Day One (T-28) [10.13m]
2.34x Twisters (T-32) [17.55m]
 

This had a very strong weekend of sales. maybe it might do better far out (up to T-20) in terms of pace than Twisters

which location?

[keysersoze123]

In regards to Venom 3 its pace over 48 hrs leading to T-4 was similar to 24 hour pace of Venom 2. Its looking dire. Anything below 60m OW would be bad. If it comes near low end of what @Shawn Robbins predicted, it would be awful. Only good thing is it wont be as bad as Joker 🙂

[Grand Cine]

26 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

In regards to Venom 3 its pace over 48 hrs leading to T-4 was similar to 24 hour pace of Venom 2. Its looking dire. Anything below 60m OW would be bad. If it comes near low end of what @Shawn Robbins predicted, it would be awful. Only good thing is it wont be as bad as Joker 🙂

oh oh back to back bad final week for Comic Book movie ?

[filmpalace]

On 10/20/2024 at 6:56 PM, filmpalace said:

Venom: The Last Dance T-4

 

Tickets sold: 458 (+96)

Growth (over the past 6 days): 27%

Theaters: 2

Showtimes: 17

 

1,17x Joker 2 (T-4) - 7,6M

 

Does anybody know what Joker 2's true Thursday preview gross was? At first I used 7M, but apparently that included the fan screenings on the Monday prior. For now, I’m using 6.5M, since I believe that’s what @TheFlatLannister is using.

Venom: The Last Dance T-3

 

Tickets sold: 508 (+50)

Growth: 11%

Theaters: 2

Showtimes: 13

 

1,11x Joker 2 (T-3) – 7,2M

 

One theater I track actually removed 4 showtimes, because they had few to none tickets sold. Hoping for a strong final week, but based on my and other tracker’s numbers, I wouldn’t be surprised with an opening below 70M.

Edited Monday at 09:57 PM by filmpalace

[TheFlatLannister]

On 10/18/2024 at 7:24 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

Venom: The Last Dance

 

Thursday 

 

T-6

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
674	5285	141395	3.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

168

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-6

(1.061x) of Joker Folie a Deux $6.69M

(0.760x) of Dune 2 $7.07M

(0.176x) of Deadpool x Wolverine $6.78M

Comps AVG: $6.85M

 

Slipped against comps which is fine. No signs of an acceleration yet. Looks like $6M-$7M previews to me. Don't see how it gets to $60M+ OW from there

 

FLORIDA 

 

Venom: The Last Dance

 

Thursday 

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
701	6551	146911	4.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

482

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

27

 

COMPS

T-3

(1.037x) of Joker Folie a Deux $6.53M

(0.768x) of Dune 2 $7.14M

(0.175x) of Deadpool x Wolverine $6.73M

Comps AVG: $6.80M

 

Continues to slip, not great. Still not seeing signs of acceleration as sales are just not improving. Struggling to see $60M OW from here...

[TalismanRing]

NYC LOCAL REGAL (Mon)

Venom 3:   86/3006

 

COMP
Venom 2: $7.61m 

 

Same multi would give it $59m o/w

 

 

 

[lorddemaxus]

Could Halloween be impacting things? It lands on a Thursday this year. I know pretty much everyone my age is going out to some party or event that night while kids are likely out trick or treating.

[Mulder]

3 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Could Halloween be impacting things? It lands on a Thursday this year. I know pretty much everyone my age is going out to some party or event that night while kids are likely out trick or treating.

Venom's not coming out on Halloween if you meant Venom.

[Shawn Robbins]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

In regards to Venom 3 its pace over 48 hrs leading to T-4 was similar to 24 hour pace of Venom 2. Its looking dire. Anything below 60m OW would be bad. If it comes near low end of what @Shawn Robbins predicted, it would be awful. Only good thing is it wont be as bad as Joker 🙂

 

And for even more wrenches to throw in the cogs: it's hard to say what the crossover of audience is and people can do multiple things in one weekend... BUT... the World Series could actually have some minor impact on box office for the first time in awhile with both NY and LA in it (first time since 1981) and starting their series Friday night and Game 2 on Saturday.

 

That alone won't account for Venom potentially coming in under 50 or 60, but it's just another factor to consider in high price and high share movie markets.

 

Sorry for the run-on sentences, typing on the go on mobile. 😄

[lorddemaxus]

6 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Venom's not coming out on Halloween if you meant Venom.

Oops I’m stupid. Got my weeks mixed up

Edited Monday at 11:31 PM by lorddemaxus