The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Kon]

45 minutes ago, Flip said:

Wicked 2 (T-31) 4 days of sales

 

15 showtimes/638 tix sold (+25)

 

Missed Deadpool 3 (T-31) [???]
5.8x Gladiator 2 (T-31) [???]

 

pace has slowed down a lot, the weekend was weaker than I would’ve expected. Over the last 4 days it actually sold less tickets than Gladiator, so that’s an interesting trend to follow.

It's weird Wicked has slowed down bigger than expected.

 

Wicked has recently had a poster drama blow out of proportion on the internet, but I don't think it has influence on this, right?

Edited yesterday at 03:14 AM by Kon

[leoh]

Social embargo lifted 

 

 

Edited yesterday at 03:12 AM by leoh

[filmlover]

18 minutes ago, Kon said:

It's weird Wicked has slowed down bigger than expected.

 

Wicked has recently had a poster drama blow out of proportion on the internet, but I don't think it has influence on this, right?

It had a fan rush at the start and with the movie still a month away, it's waiting until the premiere for the next big boost.

[Flip]

On 10/20/2024 at 10:15 PM, Flip said:

Venom 3 (T-4) 2 days of sales

 

25 showtimes/326 tix sold (+88)

 

1.16x AQP Day One (T-4) [7.89m]
.84x Beetlejuice 2 (T-4) [8.23m]
1.43x Alien Romulus (T-4) [9.30m]

1.82x Bad Boys 4 (T-4) [10.69m]

 

 

Very good sales over the weekend, as you can see it grew against every comp. Tomorrow it needs to sell 68 tickets to keep in step with BB4, I think as long as it sells 60-65 that’s a good day.

Venom 3 (T-3) 

 

25 showtimes/380 tix sold (+54)

 

1.15x AQP Day One (T-3) [7.82m]
.84x Beetlejuice 2 (T-3) [8.23m]
1.43x Alien Romulus (T-3) [9.30m]

1.76x Bad Boys 4 (T-3) [10.34m]

 

Underperformed my target, but considering the fact that it held steady with every comp but BB4, it was an ok day. However, the fact that it couldn’t hold with BB4 means the chances of a late explosion are low since today would’ve been the day to get that started; instead it’s chugging along with the other genre comps. Tomorrow I’m expecting 85 tickets sold at the least, but I won’t be impressed by a number below 3 digits. 

[Flip]

On 10/20/2024 at 10:17 PM, Flip said:

Venom 3 Friday (T-5) 2 days of sales

 

31 showtimes/271 tix sold (+73)

 

Missed Beetlejuice 2 (T-5) [???]

Missed Alien Romulus (T-5) [???]

.40x Inside Out 2 (T-5) [20.22m]

Venom 3 Friday (T-4) 

 

31 showtimes/301 tix sold (+30)

 

Missed Beetlejuice 2 (T-4) [???]

Missed Alien Romulus (T-4) [???]

.40x Inside Out 2 (T-4) [20.22m]

 

No change in pace

[AniNate]

Wicked seemed to be doing pretty well in my area the last week. Might just be a regional quirk.

 

 

[crazymoviekid]

Venom 3:

 

Thursday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 23 Tickets

Theater 2: 24 Tickets

 

Joker 2: $3.20M

BB: $5.62M

BB:RoD: $8.91M

GB:FE: $4.91M

FN@F: $2.33M

FX: $4.75M

Black Adam: $4.83M

 

Oh boy, this is gonna be a fun week to track. Going with $5M.

[vale9001]

4 hours ago, Kon said:

It's weird Wicked has slowed down bigger than expected.

 

Wicked has recently had a poster drama blow out of proportion on the internet, but I don't think it has influence on this, right?

 

 

bigger than expected? At least you don't think Gladiator is gonna open with 20M how wicked could stay in that pace of 7 times bigger than gladiator? 

[vale9001]

wicked started strong cause has a cult fanbase, a fanbase is very female and a popstar with 500M followers is involved.

Gladiator of couse is very different.

Wicked will win but especially if Gladiator takes solid reviews and WOM (remember the movie comes WW including anglophone countries the week before than in the Us) i think it's gonna make 2/3 of wicked, not the distance early sales could suggested 2 weeks ago or no.

 

Like Gladiator 70-80M and wicked 110-120M. 

[vafrow]

On 10/21/2024 at 4:37 AM, vafrow said:

 

Venom: The Last Dance , T-4, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews

 

Total Sales: 278

New Sales: 26

7 day average growth rate*: 13.7%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 19

Tickets per Showtime: 13.9

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 21/4

Early Evening: 187/8

Late Evening: 70/7

 

Preview Sales by Format

Regular: 0/0

Dolby: 13/1

Dolby 3D: 70/6

IMAX: 81/4

IMAX 3D: 5/2

4DX 3D: 10/3

VIP: 99/3

 

Comps 

1.203x Joker 2 for $7.6M

3.349x GB:FE for $15.7M

0.949x HG:BoSS for $5.5M

2.044x Aquaman 2 for $9.2M

Average: $9.5M

 

This fell of pace slightly after trending above all comps so consistently all week. No concern, but interesting to observe.

 

Venom: The Last Dance , T-3, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews

 

Total Sales: 344

New Sales: 66

7 day average growth rate: 15.6%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 19

Tickets per Showtime: 17.2

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 27/4

Early Evening: 239/8

Late Evening: 78/7

 

Preview Sales by Format

Regular: 0/0

Dolby: 13/1

Dolby 3D: 93/6

IMAX: 103/4

IMAX 3D: 6/2

4DX 3D: 16/3

VIP: 108/3

 

Comps 

1.224x Joker 2 for $7.7M

3.865x GB:FE for $18.2M

1.065x HG:BoSS for $6.1M

1.977x Aquaman 2 for $8.9M

Average: $10.2M

 

It's gone up against comps and back to a good acceleration. That said, given the range of comps, it's best to look at the low end. That Hunger Games comp should rise to low 7s by T-1, and then have better walk ups. Joker had a surprisingly good final week market, so I actually don't see that comp changing much.

[M37]

10 hours ago, leoh said:

Nope, it didn’t. This is why not only Venom LTBC but also the first Venom (2018) movie both had 60 million projection the day before their release and both made considerably more: Venom (2018) 80M and LTBC 90M. This was due to walk ups, something impossible to track perfectly.

 

Important also to note that both @vafrow and @Flip trackings, both reported earlier today, project more than 9M for Venom OP. 

 

10 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

Looking back, Venom 2 REALLY exploded on Tuesday before release. I mean even on the Monday before that it showed signs that this isn’t, but I guess all the walkup-cels got one more day to prove they’re right

The smoldering of what would later become an explosion began on Fri & Sat before release, but Sunday (T-4) was especially moving day for Venom 2, as (IMO) a fair share of its potential audience suddenly realized that the film was coming out that week (NFL ads?)

 

Sunday sales in particular, for some demo reasons, generally corrrelate to walk-up rate on Thursday & Friday, and while Venom 3 isn’t crashing, it’s doing only fine, not on fire. We have enough data in hand now to say that isn’t likely to change substantially over the next few days; under $60M seems like where this is headed, but should leg out a little better than predecessors post-Halloween through TG, so maybe ~$150M total 

 

 

 

[JonathanMB]

12 hours ago, Mulder said:

Personally I just think the genre's declining. This is what I expected and I think 2025'll be worse. Venom 2 saved itself by hitching its marketing towards the end to No Way Home like Captain Marvel was hitched to Endgame. There is no giant anticipated MCU film for Venom 3 to be hitched to and I think people are tired of it by now. It'll open better than Joker but continue the ongoing trend we've been seeing.

 

The comic book/superhero genre seems to be in a similar spot to the musical of the late '60s, which Hollywood also started spending absurd amounts of money on because it had been a reliable genre for success earlier in the decade, but started flopping all over the place as tastes were changing, with the occasional exception still breaking out - in this metaphor, Deadpool & Wolverine is something like Funny Girl blowing up in 1968. 

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, vale9001 said:

wicked started strong cause has a cult fanbase, a fanbase is very female and a popstar with 500M followers is involved.

Gladiator of couse is very different.

Wicked will win but especially if Gladiator takes solid reviews and WOM (remember the movie comes WW including anglophone countries the week before than in the Us) i think it's gonna make 2/3 of wicked, not the distance early sales could suggested 2 weeks ago or no.

 

Like Gladiator 70-80M and wicked 110-120M. 

 

My gut still thinks both are too high.  

 

The Color Purple burned me last year...and while Wicked is way more popular, it's still almost 3 hours and a 2 parter.  I don't want to get burned again thinking huge presale popularity means it automatically expands from a limited 1 quad draw (white women 25+) to all 4 quads.  Hard to draw the secondary obvious quad (kids and families) at almost 3 hours with no real ending as a 2 parter.

 

Gladiator is a sequel that already seems old coming out against lots and lots of football, and now against another movie that will eat screens.

 

So, I'll be curious where both movies are at T-7 and how they start growing.  Moana 2 lurking in the wings seems also ready to hold down that weekend.

 

And I also figure I'll add - travel plans tend to make the Saturday/Sunday numbers disappoint.  We've had many movies on that weekend that just didn't fly as expected through the weekend.

 

So, I guess I'll be debbie downer.  That said, maybe I'm wrong about this (I've been wrong a lot before)...maybe there will be the holiday swell, just a little early.  But I'd think the swell still hits over the holiday...

[Chubbycc]

I don’t think people are tired of cbm. I think people are tired of average cbm. Venom 3 looks like any average one you can wait to see it on streaming. 

[AniNate]

How frontloaded were Color Purple presales? Was it real steady growth or just a lot of big group sales when tickets came out?

[vafrow]

9 hours ago, Kon said:

It's weird Wicked has slowed down bigger than expected.

 

Wicked has recently had a poster drama blow out of proportion on the internet, but I don't think it has influence on this, right?

 

Gladiator has had social media reactions that have been positive and putting it into awards discussions.

 

I was impressed with Wicked being able to maintain momentum beyond the first few days. But, after that first week, and before that final two week stretch, there's not much Universal can do to maintain the hype too much. They've been showing trailers since the Superbowl.

 

This will still be big, but people should temper expectations during the middle stage.

[charlie Jatinder]

On 10/19/2024 at 9:49 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Venom 3 MiniTC2 T-6 Days

 

Previews - 1013/74446 (300 showings)

 

Comps

~0.65x of Venom 2 at the same time in 15 locs - $8M adj for inflation

 

Aquaman 2 - $5.8M

Black Adam - $5M+ adj for inflation

 

Twisters - $7.5M (adj for under indexing)

Venom 3 MiniTC2 T-3 Days

 

Previews - 1839/74439 (300 showings)

 

Comps

Aquaman 2 - $7.4M

Black Adam - $6M adj for inflation

Marvels - $5.5M

 

Twisters - $7.1M (adj for under-indexing)

 

Friday - 1671/107213 (434 showings)

 

Comps

Aquaman 2 - $11M

Black Adam - $12M adj for inflation

Marvels - $11.5M

 

Twisters - $14M (adj for under-indexing)

[AniNate]

Y'all are reading too much into one guy's counts at 3, maybe 4 theaters? Wicked increased nearly 30% the last week in the 11 theaters I looked at.

 

Also, isn't Flip NYC based? Probably makes sense that there was a bigger fan rush there (and likely more capacity issues as well)

 

 

Edited 17 hours ago by AniNate

[vale9001]

45 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

My gut still thinks both are too high.  

 

The Color Purple burned me last year...and while Wicked is way more popular, it's still almost 3 hours and a 2 parter.  I don't want to get burned again thinking huge presale popularity means it automatically expands from a limited 1 quad draw (white women 25+) to all 4 quads.  Hard to draw the secondary obvious quad (kids and families) at almost 3 hours with no real ending as a 2 parter.

 

Gladiator is a sequel that already seems old coming out against lots and lots of football, and now against another movie that will eat screens.

 

So, I'll be curious where both movies are at T-7 and how they start growing.  Moana 2 lurking in the wings seems also ready to hold down that weekend.

 

And I also figure I'll add - travel plans tend to make the Saturday/Sunday numbers disappoint.  We've had many movies on that weekend that just didn't fly as expected through the weekend.

 

So, I guess I'll be debbie downer.  That said, maybe I'm wrong about this (I've been wrong a lot before)...maybe there will be the holiday swell, just a little early.  But I'd think the swell still hits over the holiday...

 

 

I get what you mean  and after the first day of presale of Wicked i said we need to wait if there is an interest outside the core target so I agree with you. 

Btw i Remember user like @charlie Jatinder were saying about The colour purple the big Sales were only focused on Christmas day from the day one of pre- Sales, while here according to the trackers seems for Wicked sales are good from EA to real previews + the weekend all around so i think definitely It's not something at that level of frontloaded

 

I mean the colour purple really played well only for the target of mature black women, Wicked can not be 4 quadrants movie (like you i'm not 100% sure is gonna play like full family movie) but definitely has more targets to reach even if most female centered...for example I'm not sure about the "white women factor", i think it has appeal for any kinda of woman. More than races the problem here can abe about women ages. One of the reasons Barbie exploded like that was adult- mature women were interested too. I don't see Wicked with that much appeal for women over like 40 (45?).

While for example Gladiator can be interesting imo for males from 18 to 70.

 

 

Anyways the numbers i said was just to clarify the difference i'm expecting right now for the two movies, not the actual numbers i believe they can do since i'm not tracking them.

 

Of course can be also 60M for gladiator and 90M for Wicked. Just i think Scott movie will make around 2/3 of the musical. 

 

 

[filmlover]

On another note, the ads for Here are now taking the always desperate marketing approach of having the stars pitch the movie to the audience. So yeah, I guess it is going to flop. Oh well.