The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[LonePirate]

One thing to keep in mind with regard to KotFM is the running time which is almost 3.5 hours. That extra 30 minutes per showtime will likely keep the film to 3 showtimes per screen per day, perhaps 4 on some screens, whereas the mere 3 hour Oppenheimer squeezed out one more showtime per day per screen.

[M37]

3 minutes ago, LonePirate said:

One thing to keep in mind with regard to KotFM is the running time which is almost 3.5 hours. That extra 30 minutes per showtime will likely keep the film to 3 showtimes per screen per day, perhaps 4 on some screens, whereas the mere 3 hour Oppenheimer squeezed out one more showtime per day per screen.

You really can’t squeeze in 4 shows with that kind of running time; the gap between shows is minimum 4:15, more likely 4:30 for most locations 

 

Going to see a lot of 12/430/900, 130/600/1030 type show sets, neither of which are ideal for prime shows & maximizing potential, though maybe a few 1100/330/800 set mixed in. That’s worse than Oppy, but also because this time of year, overall business isn’t sufficient to justify extended operating hours for the super early (or very late ending) shows. Would have made more sense as Christmas break release, when those shows are more viable 

[TwoMisfits]

2 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

I've been going to the movies consistently twice a month all year, and I haven't been since I took my kids to see TMNT back in August.

 

It's really been a tough stretch. But both Dumb Money and Creator intrigue me enough that I feel motivated finally to try and get out.

 

TMNT was also my last movie (and I had also gone at least 1x/month til this month)...and to bring this back to tracking...ummmm...maybe to bring this back to buzz...I even passed on the free Amazon Prime movie tickets this month b/c even free wasn't compelling enough for their offerings...no buzz for anything this month, which I guess has been reflected in weekend box office.

[Krissykins]

57 minutes ago, ThatWaluigiDude said:

You expected better or worse?

Better, I thought it would be a critical darling. Still great reviews though, 78% fresh currently. Just expected many more raves. 

[Bob Train]

Film	Studio	3-Day Weekend Forecast	Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, October 1	Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed)	3-Day % Change from Last Wknd
PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie	Paramount Pictures	$21,700,000	$21,700,000	~3,500	NEW
The Creator	20th Century Studios	$19,800,000	$19,800,000	~3,600	NEW
Saw X	Lionsgate	$13,500,000	$13,500,000	~3,100	NEW
Dumb Money	Sony & Columbia Pictures	$6,500,000	$10,300,000	~2,750	+168%
The Nun II	Warner Bros. Pictures	$4,800,000	$77,100,000	~2,900	-44%
Expend4bles	Lionsgate	$3,600,000	$14,300,000	~3,518	-55%
A Haunting in Venice	20th Century Studios	$3,500,000	$31,400,000	~2,800	-44%
The Equalizer 3	Sony & Columbia Pictures	$3,000,000	$86,300,000	~2,300	-37%
Barbie	Warner Bros. Pictures	$2,100,000	$633,900,000	~1,500	-34%
My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3	Focus Features	$1,800,000	$27,000,000	~1,600	-41%

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-box-office-forecast-the-creator-dumb-money-paw-patrol-the-mighty-movie-and-saw-x/

[keysersoze123]

19 minutes ago, M37 said:

You really can’t squeeze in 4 shows with that kind of running time; the gap between shows is minimum 4:15, more likely 4:30 for most locations 

 

Going to see a lot of 12/430/900, 130/600/1030 type show sets, neither of which are ideal for prime shows & maximizing potential, though maybe a few 1100/330/800 set mixed in. That’s worse than Oppy, but also because this time of year, overall business isn’t sufficient to justify extended operating hours for the super early (or very late ending) shows. Would have made more sense as Christmas break release, when those shows are more viable 

Advantage is market is not as busy as July and it does not have to share screens with a mega opener like Barbie. So I am expecting greater screen allocation for Flower Moon compared to Oppy. 

[vafrow]

36 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Creator MTC1 Friday - 21353/579599 387514.53 3073 shows

Saw X MTC1 Friday - 17944/446116 273168.30 2709 shows

Paw Patrol Saturday - 31046/504346 336962.06 3394 shows

 

Looks bad for Saw X. I thought it would open to 30m OW. Creator will probably beat it this weekend but I am expecting Paw Patrol to win. 

 

I'm really at a loss to explain how the Canadian and US markets are so different on this one. Saw X is vastly outperforming The Creator up here, and there's nothing about either franchise I'd peg as being regionally skewed.

[eman92]

57 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Creator MTC1 Friday - 21353/579599 387514.53 3073 shows

Saw X MTC1 Friday - 17944/446116 273168.30 2709 shows

Paw Patrol Saturday - 31046/504346 336962.06 3394 shows

 

Looks bad for Saw X. I thought it would open to 30m OW. Creator will probably beat it this weekend but I am expecting Paw Patrol to win. 

 

Sorry can someone explain what exactly this means? I tried searching on here but couldn't find anything. Is this like total tickets sold/total tickets available? 

[Porthos]

56 minutes ago, M37 said:

You really can’t squeeze in 4 shows with that kind of running time; the gap between shows is minimum 4:15, more likely 4:30 for most locations 

 

Going to see a lot of 12/430/900, 130/600/1030 type show sets, neither of which are ideal for prime shows & maximizing potential, though maybe a few 1100/330/800 set mixed in. That’s worse than Oppy, but also because this time of year, overall business isn’t sufficient to justify extended operating hours for the super early (or very late ending) shows. Would have made more sense as Christmas break release, when those shows are more viable 

 

This is Century Arden for Fri 10/20, XD screen, for KOTFM:

 

Quote

• 1. 9:40a 2. 2:05p 3. 6:30p 4.10:55p

 

1 early bird/matinee, 1 matinee, 1 prime time, 1 late night

 

That's as good as you're probably gonna get for any given screen.  I would agree not many of them would start that early.

Edited September 27, 2023 by Porthos

[M37]

16 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Advantage is market is not as busy as July and it does not have to share screens with a mega opener like Barbie. So I am expecting greater screen allocation for Flower Moon compared to Oppy. 

I will absolutely take the under on KOTFM screens & especially shows vs Oppy (though it doesn’t need as many to be successful anyway)

 

But more importantly, the running time is a limiting factor on when those shows can be played. Any show starting after 6pm (or maybe 630pm) means that auditorium doesn’t play a late show, so the location is foregoing the potential revenue of that lost show. There’s a limit, diminishing returns, to how many screens you want to do that for

[TheFlatLannister]

On 9/26/2023 at 6:11 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-24

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
136	339	22614	1.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

46

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-24

 

(0.314x) of Oppenheimer ~$3.30M THUR Previews

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-23

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
136	349	22614	1.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

10

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-23

 

(0.316x) of Oppenheimer ~$3.32M THUR Previews

[vafrow]

43 minutes ago, eman92 said:

Sorry can someone explain what exactly this means? I tried searching on here but couldn't find anything. Is this like total tickets sold/total tickets available? 

 

I've spent a lot of time unsure, and think I know it, but will be happy to let a vet correct me.

 

Using the first set of numbers:

 

21353/579599

 

First number is total tickets sold. Denominator is total seats available.

 

387514.53 3073 shows

 

First number with decimals is total dollar value of seats sold. In this case, it's $387,514.53. Combined with the total tickets sold number, you have an average ticket price of $18.15 for example.

 

The last number is total number of shows.

 

43 minutes ago, eman92 said:

 

 

Edited September 27, 2023 by vafrow

[DAJK]

1 hour ago, vafrow said:

I'm really at a loss to explain how the Canadian and US markets are so different on this one. Saw X is vastly outperforming The Creator up here, and there's nothing about either franchise I'd peg as being regionally skewed.

I'm seeing the exact same thing. Just this morning I was looking at sales in Canada and was thinking that 30M was assured for Saw. Weird.

[TheFlatLannister]

On 9/26/2023 at 6:17 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THE EXORCIST: BELIEVER

 

Thursday Previews 

T-9

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
147	563	25911	2.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

34

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-9

 

(0.360x) of Haunted Mansion~$1.11M THUR Previews

(5.687x) of Boogeyman~$6.26M THUR Previews

 

COMPS AVG: $3.69M

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THE EXORCIST: BELIEVER

 

Thursday Previews 

T-8

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
149	609	26279	2.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

46

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

2

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-8

 

(4.649x) of Talk to me~$5.79M THUR Previews

(4.872x) of Boogeyman~$5.36M THUR Previews

 

COMPS AVG: $5.58M

 

Excellent day locally. Removed Haunted Mansion comp and replaced it with Talk to me

[TheFlatLannister]

On 9/26/2023 at 6:25 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

FRIDAY

 

TAYLOR SWIFT: THE ERA TOUR

 

T-17

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
224	11238	43473	25.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

34

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

20

 

COMPS

T-0

T-0 comps previews: 

(0.837x) of Barbie ~$17.66M FRIDAY for TET

(1.006x) of ATSV~$17.45M FRIDAY for TET

(1.678x) of TLM~$17.28M FRIDAY for TET

COMP AVG: $17.46M

Adjusted 40% up for ATP $24.43M

 

T-17 comps

(2.256x) of GOTG3~$39.47M FRIDAY for TET

Adjusted 40% up for ATP $55.26M

 

No apparent bump here. Maybe tomorrow. 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

FRIDAY

 

TAYLOR SWIFT: THE ERA TOUR

 

T-16

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
224	11365	43473	26.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

127

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

20

 

COMPS

T-0

T-0 comps previews: 

(0.847x) of Barbie ~$17.86M FRIDAY for TET

(1.017x) of ATSV~$17.64M FRIDAY for TET

(1.700x) of TLM~$17.48M FRIDAY for TET

COMP AVG: $17.66M

Adjusted 40% up for ATP $24.72M

 

T-16 comps

(2.238x) of GOTG3~$39.17M FRIDAY for TET

Adjusted 40% up for ATP $54.84M

 

Well there's the bump. Best day in a looong time. Still slipping against Guardians comp

[TheFlatLannister]

On 9/26/2023 at 6:29 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

SAW X

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
148	501	28315	1.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

53

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

7

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-2

 

(0.751x) of Nun II ~$2.33M THUR Previews

(0.696x) of Equalizer 3 ~$2.64M THUR Previews

(2.020x) of Talk To Me ~$2.52M THUR Previews

 

COMPS AVG: $2.50M previews 

 

Heading for $2M+ previews and probably $20M+ OW

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

SAW X

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
154	633	28956	2.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

132

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

6

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-1

 

(0.770x) of Nun II ~$2.39M THUR Previews

(0.800x) of Equalizer 3 ~$3.04M THUR Previews

(1.867x) of Talk To Me ~$2.32M THUR Previews

 

COMPS AVG: $2.58M previews 

[abracadabra1998]

No MSP update tonight, as thus no growth rates or predictions

 

(Silver lining is our team did win our game though, I’m sure many of you are dying to know)

[TheFlatLannister]

On 9/26/2023 at 6:32 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

 

THE CREATOR

 

Thursday Previews 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
143	605	29032	2.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

20

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

6

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-2

 

(0.494x) of Blue Beetle ~$1.63M THUR Previews

(0.213x) of RoTB ~$1.87M THUR Previews

Comps AVG: $1.75M

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

 

THE CREATOR

 

Thursday Previews 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
147	660	29704	2.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

55

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

4

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-1

 

(0.434x) of Blue Beetle ~$1.43M THUR Previews

(0.175x) of RoTB ~$1.54M THUR Previews

Comps AVG: $1.49M

[Porthos]

4 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

No MSP update tonight, as thus no growth rates or predictions

 

(Silver lining is our team did win our game though, I’m sure many of you are dying to know)

 

liked for the update but more for your team winning; congratulations! 👍

 

(or: It felt weird giving a "sad face" reaction to news of your team winning 😉 )

[MovieMan89]

If KOTFM can hit 50 OW, I don’t see it missing 200 DOM.