The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Porthos]

28 minutes ago, YM! said:

I think Discount Tuesday doesn't really matter much for the Thanskgiving openers especially when both Encanto and SW benefited from it. Same for stuff like Ralph 2.

 

Where Discount Tuesday matters is when trying to comp against current family films that didn't open on a Tuesday.

 

FWIW, did do a super quick check and it looks like the regular pattern of some chains/theaters allowing DT tickets and others not.  At least locally.

[iEnri]

Considering FNAF opened with "only" 10M previews despite having much bigger pre sales, I am very doubtful The Marvels will make more than 8M in previews unless it ends up having great word of mouth. I know FNAF had bad reviews and is dropping like a rock, but the difference in pre sales are too big for these movies to come close. Even 7M sounds too much for The Marvels.

Edited October 27, 2023 by iEnri

[Hilts]

Box Office: Five Nights at Freddy’s Sees ‘Oppenheimer’-Like $10M Previews – Deadline

 

Quote

Angel Studios documentary Til After Death at 2,605 theaters counts a $2.3M Friday after $400K previews, and a $6.1M opening.

 

Got the title wrong (corrected for you) but it was the preview number I was after, thanks.

 

100k off when looking at low figures like that and terrible comps, not bad

[YM!]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Where Discount Tuesday matters is when trying to comp against current family films that didn't open on a Tuesday.

 

FWIW, did do a super quick check and it looks like the regular pattern of some chains/theaters allowing DT tickets and others not.  At least locally.

Maybe Ninja Turtles? Don't care for the comparison as I suspect Turtles to be more frontloaded but it has Tuesday previews.

 

If Strange World or Encanto comparisons were around, those would be good.

[abracadabra1998]

On 10/24/2023 at 6:32 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Previews:

 

Wish (T-28):

Day: T-28	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 15 theaters	60	7	39	7419	0.53

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		19	3	48.72
Marcus:		11	0	28.21
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		9	4	23.08

 

Haunted Mansion and Paw Patrol comps in one week. Limited in usefulness of course, but better than nothing!

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Previews:

 

Wish (T-25):

Day: T-25, T-22	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 15 theaters	60	9	48	7419	0.65
Saturday Nov 18 EA: 7 theaters	7	9	9	906	0.99
TOTALS:	67	18	57	8325	0.68

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		29	10	50.88
Marcus:		15	4	26.32
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		13	4	22.81

 

7 chains versus 13 locally for Trolls EA, we will see if anymore add them. Honestly, I agree with @keysersoze123's assessment about doubting the importance of Tuesday previews, and pre-sales especially. Saturday EA will syphon off a lot of pre-sales, and unlike with Trolls where there's about two weeks for it to then catch up, Wish's are really close together. I'll still track and comp it (Haunted Mansion and Paw Patrol comps next update, and I will start comps for the EA shows then too), but I doubt we will see a lot of movement until reallyyyyy close to release now.

[abracadabra1998]

7 minutes ago, Hilts said:

Box Office: Five Nights at Freddy’s Sees ‘Oppenheimer’-Like $10M Previews – Deadline

 

 

Got the title wrong (corrected for you) but it was the preview number I was after, thanks.

 

100k off when looking at low figures like that and terrible comps, not bad

 

That is so bad for After Death, but thanks for pulling that number, I was looking for it. You were way closer than me, good stuff! Hard to do it on a release like this, so awesome job  

 

EDIT: We might be using it soon for Journey to Bethlehem lol

Edited October 27, 2023 by abracadabra1998

[keysersoze123]

6 minutes ago, YM! said:

Maybe Ninja Turtles? Don't care for the comparison as I suspect Turtles to be more frontloaded but it has Tuesday previews.

 

If Strange World or Encanto comparisons were around, those would be good.

Nothing this far out. Earliest I tracked it was day before sneaks which was 4 days before previews. 

 

  

On 7/28/2023 at 6:33 PM, keysersoze123 said:

TMNT MTC1

Sneaks(7/29) - 15848/30425 161109.40 218 shows

Early shows(7/31) - 17851/31085 374233.49 166 shows

Previews(8/1) - 22218/528323 363997.92 3345 shows

 

Its release is similar to MI7 and its also having strong reviews. I think with shortage of family movies this could do better than expected. I am hoping for 50m by next Sunday and go towards 150m domestic. 

 

I think based on @katnisscinnaplex show numbers, MTC1 will not over index either for sneaks or early shows. Thinking 1.5-2m for early shows. Previews being discount day is hard to predict. Let us see where the numbers end. 

That said that is a good number to track for tuesday at least. Wednesday wont be good comps considering we are in thanksgiving week and so wednesday is like a Friday. But turtles did like 3.8m just for tuesday. 

 

  

On 8/1/2023 at 9:04 PM, keysersoze123 said:

TMNT MTC1

Previews Final - 89414/534762 1373223.52 3416 shows

Wednesday -  40290/750697 590822.18 4822 shows

 

No change in my prediction. Its finishing just as I expected. Wednesday probably looking at 90-100K finish. 5-6m wednesday minus previews. not sure how it will be reported. 

 

 

 

[Shawn Robbins]

46 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Doubling Strange World is fine. This needs to way more than that to hit your projections. So far nothing about presales scream a big breakout. 

 

Anyway let us wait and see. As you say family flicks are slow until close to release. Even Minions 2 did not go on big growth until final week. We will know if Wish is able to see that around there. With discount tuesday effect, I am not expecting previews to matter that much. 

I actually meant to say triple. 😄 (Realizing that sounds like a lot, but, it really isn't considering that would still be the low end of past Disney Thanksgiving releases.)

 

Minions 2 is not a great comp here at this stage, IMHO, but I'd be curious to have my mind changed if there's a pattern developing already that I am not seeing. Just not sure the other intangibles line up (sequel, summer Friday release, Illumination and Gentleminion fad, etc.)

 

Like I mentioned though, we shouldn't get too singularly focused on one metric quite yet in this situation. The purpose of tracking has to be include trying to project trends when we know the data at hand is insufficient, which is the case with pre-sales right now. That's why these ranges always evolve over time. I don't see enough data to indicate it would perform significantly below the low end of the current range, but that of course doesn't mean the current range will be correct ultimately.

 

Now if buzz doesn't pick up, reviews are soft, presales don't pick up closer to release, then we definitely should reassess if needed.

 

All that being said, what number(s) would you give it right now?

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, Shawn said:

I actually meant to say triple. 😄 (Realizing that sounds like a lot, but, it really isn't considering that would still be the low end of past Disney Thanksgiving releases.)

 

Minions 2 is not a great comp here at this stage, IMHO, but I'd be curious to have my mind changed if there's a pattern developing already that I am not seeing. Just not sure the other intangibles line up (sequel, summer Friday release, Illumination and Gentleminion fad, etc.)

 

Like I mentioned though, we shouldn't get too singularly focused on one metric quite yet in this situation. The purpose of tracking has to be include trying to project trends when we know the data at hand is insufficient, which is the case with pre-sales right now. That's why these ranges always evolve over time. I don't see enough data to indicate it would perform significantly below the low end of the current range, but that of course doesn't mean the current range will be correct ultimately.

 

Now if buzz doesn't pick up, reviews are soft, presales don't pick up closer to release, then we definitely should reassess if needed.

 

All that being said, what number(s) would you give it right now?

Disney has not had a big animation breakout post COVID. Elemental opened < 30m in summer. I think 50-55m over 5 days is solid for this. This is just a guess rather than extrapolation. From presales perspective, I like to see some sign of breakout which we will not see until close to release. 

[TheFlatLannister]

43 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

Just wanted to congratulate everyone who had been tracking FNAF these past few weeks. Incredible work. You guys nailed it and the trades weren't even close.  Great work. 

The trades...(seriously though $7M was just ridiculous) 

 

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

WISH

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-26

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
162	563	29762	1.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

4

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-26

 

(1.555x) of Elemental $3.73M Previews

 

421 seats sold over 6 showings at MTC1 Disney 

 

*Saturday EA* separate from previews 

52 seats sold over 10 showings 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

WISH

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-25

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
162	568	29762	1.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

5

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-25

 

(1.531x) of Elemental $3.67M Previews *Not adjusted for ATP discount Tuesday* 

 

427 seats sold over 6 showings at MTC1 Disney 

 

*Saturday EA* separate from previews 

83 seats sold over 10 showings 

 

Going to agree with @keysersoze123 not seeing much signs of a breakout but its an original animation so still very early 

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

Trolls: Band Together 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-21

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
171	285	31233	0.91%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

2

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS

T-21

 

EA on Saturday = 189 seats sold 

*EA is separated from Thursday gross 

 

(0.725x) of Elemental $1.74M Previews

(0.275x) of Haunted Mansion $854k Previews

 

COMPS AVG: $1.30M

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

Trolls: Band Together 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-20

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
171	287	31233	0.92%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

2

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS

T-20

 

EA on Saturday = 211 seats sold 

*EA is separated from Thursday gross 

 

(0.721x) of Elemental $1.73M Previews

(0.274x) of Haunted Mansion $848k Previews

 

COMPS AVG: $1.29M

[TheFlatLannister]

22 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

The Marvels 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-14

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
259	2296	52152	4.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

57

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-14

 

 

(0.430x) of GOTG3~$7.53M Previews

Comps AVG: $7.53M

 

Nothing groundbreaking, but the best day of sales locally since T-28

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

The Marvels 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-13

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
259	2302	52152	4.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

6

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-13

 

 

(0.431x) of GOTG3~$7.55M Previews

Comps AVG: $7.55M

 

OOF 💀

[TwoMisfits]

2 hours ago, Shawn said:

I actually meant to say triple. 😄 (Realizing that sounds like a lot, but, it really isn't considering that would still be the low end of past Disney Thanksgiving releases.)

 

All that being said, what number(s) would you give it (Wish) right now?

 

$50-$75M 5 day (don't ask me for 3 day on that, b/c I'd have to do Math right now, and I'm tired:)...

[emoviefan]

2 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

WISH

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-25

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
162	568	29762	1.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

5

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-25

 

(1.531x) of Elemental $3.67M Previews *Not adjusted for ATP discount Tuesday* 

 

427 seats sold over 6 showings at MTC1 Disney 

 

*Saturday EA* separate from previews 

83 seats sold over 10 showings 

 

Going to agree with @keysersoze123 not seeing much signs of a breakout but its an original animation so still very early 

Got to believe having Trolls 3 and this in back to back weeks is not easy on the family budgets. I am assuming that is taken as a factor.

[Relevation]

2 hours ago, Shawn said:

The purpose of tracking has to be include trying to project trends when we know the data at hand is insufficient, which is the case with pre-sales right now. That's why these ranges always evolve over time. I don't see enough data to indicate it would perform significantly below the low end of the current range, but that of course doesn't mean the current range will be correct ultimately.

 

Now if buzz doesn't pick up, reviews are soft, presales don't pick up closer to release, then we definitely should reassess if needed.

 

All that being said, what number(s) would you give it right now?

Personally, since it’s pretty much performing ahead of Elemental everywhere right now, I don’t see it coming substantially under that movie’s $2.4M previews even with the low ATP. Maybe setting $2.2M as the lower bound. High bound could go as high as $3.5M imo or even closer to $4M if the super high Orlando numbers can stick. Sticking with a $2.2-3.5M Thurs range and an 5-day IM of 24-28x (low end a bit higher than Strange World and high end a bit higher than Encanto to account for potential siphoning of TUE sales due to EA), and you’ve got yourself a potential range of $53-98M over 5 days. Now obviously that range is broad and a bit unhelpful, so shaving off $15M from both extreme bounds and shifting it back a bit to potentially account for poorer late pace with the SAG strike and early sales jump (+ around like $3M from EA), aaaaaaaand I would peg this at a $43-53M 3-day and $65-80M 5-day.

[el sid]

18 hours ago, Hilts said:

Box Office: Five Nights at Freddy’s Sees ‘Oppenheimer’-Like $10M Previews – Deadline

 

 

Got the title wrong (corrected for you) but it was the preview number I was after, thanks.

 

100k off when looking at low figures like that and terrible comps, not bad

Sad. I hoped for 600-700k. 

But your prediction was very good 👍.

 

The Friday presales looked way more promising. But it was so much work to find numbers...if this movie stays under 5M OW I quit counting such stuff.

 

With that Friday number, it should reach 5M. Damn 😉.

Edited October 28, 2023 by el sid

[M37]

3 hours ago, Shawn said:

I actually meant to say triple. 😄 (Realizing that sounds like a lot, but, it really isn't considering that would still be the low end of past Disney Thanksgiving releases.)

 

Minions 2 is not a great comp here at this stage, IMHO, but I'd be curious to have my mind changed if there's a pattern developing already that I am not seeing. Just not sure the other intangibles line up (sequel, summer Friday release, Illumination and Gentleminion fad, etc.)

 

Like I mentioned though, we shouldn't get too singularly focused on one metric quite yet in this situation. The purpose of tracking has to be include trying to project trends when we know the data at hand is insufficient, which is the case with pre-sales right now. That's why these ranges always evolve over time. I don't see enough data to indicate it would perform significantly below the low end of the current range, but that of course doesn't mean the current range will be correct ultimately.

 

Now if buzz doesn't pick up, reviews are soft, presales don't pick up closer to release, then we definitely should reassess if needed.

 

All that being said, what number(s) would you give it right now?

I don't have a strong lean one way or another yet, it just seems the Wish LRF is awfully high to start. Ending up there wouldn't totally shock me, but the midpoint of your 3-day is basically double Encanto and more than quadruple Strange World. Especially with how weak Disney's family product has been of late, from Lightyear to Strange World, Mermaid doing OK*, and Elemental getting to $150M, but by strong WOM, now OW. Elemental may have brought some people back into the Disney family fold and raised the ceiling, but probably not in an OW rush kind of way.

(*Mermaid's domestic numbers were very good, but the international totals suggest a much lower expected ~$140-$190M DOM, based on a 35-43% DOM share (exuding China) of previous Disney LA remakes. Math may have changed post-COVID, but that broader point is that it appears Black audiences in the US boosted TLM's grosses in a way that wasn't replicated in other countries, nor should be expected for Wish)

 

So the lower bound of Wish's LRF gross range is basically higher than any Disney family film post-pandemic (adjusting Mermaid), and the upper bound includes a lot of the "Dead Zone", where no film post-pandemic has finished with a gross between $225M (Shang-Chi) and $324M (Oppy) [except Mermaid, but again see above]. And honestly I'm not sure where the "buzz" is - and it may exist and just be off my radar - to justify such a lofty initial expectation; certainly not from presales (which frankly don't tell us much either way), and also having to share family audience with Trolls over the extended holiday week.

 

Something like ~$40M OW (3-day) / $160M total would seem to me to be solid if not high end target this early, pending more information ... and yet that would be outside the current ranges.

Edited October 28, 2023 by M37

[M37]

Anyway ...

 

The real reason I popped in here was to say I did a spot check of the Tampa/St Pete market, and there aren't whole of seats lets for FNAF for the 9pm and later shows (which implies the earlier ones were basically all full). Except for the shows that were very clearly added recently, (9:31 LOL), which if shows are being added last minute speaks very highly of strong demand and walk-ups

 

One market, partial if not anecdotal sample, but tl;dr sales look very strong

[Bob Train]

36 minutes ago, M37 said:

Anyway ...

 

The real reason I popped in here was to say I did a spot check of the Tampa/St Pete market, and there aren't whole of seats lets for FNAF for the 9pm and later shows (which implies the earlier ones were basically all full). Except for the shows that were very clearly added recently, (9:31 LOL), which if shows are being added last minute speaks very highly of strong demand and walk-ups

 

One market, partial if not anecdotal sample, but tl;dr sales look very strong

Freddy-Mania is real!!! 

Hoping for Friday to be 3x Thursday, even if it is a longshot based on the data. The late night shows are selling well at a few theaters near me, which I haven't seen happen for anything since Barbenheimer.