The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[vafrow]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Absolutely correct.  Whenever a Trade reports "Film X has $Y in presales so far" they are (almost always) talking about ALL PRESALES, including any beyond the OW.  It is true that the lion's share will be on Thursday, especially for a film like this.  But, yes, Deadline is almost certainly talking about all sales.

 

====

 

If I have a concern about The Marvels and its OW internal multiplier, it isn't so much frontloadness, though that's obviously a factor.  It's the runtime being so relatively short. 

 

Shorter runtime = more showtimes on Thr = more demand burnt off.

 

This is a reasonably consistent formula.

 

Now WOM absolutely is a factor and it could push fence sitters one direction or the other.  But the 105min run time is gonna be a big one, one way or the other.

 

But late shows resulting in demand being burned off is only really a concern if the early shows are selling out. I think the show count allocation being pretty aggressive (that assumed typical MCU demand) means there's plenty of seats.

 

The end result is the same (if you want to see Marvels this Thursday, there's very little stopping you), but I don't think the run time is going to be a driving factor.

[Grand Cine]

54 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Hunger Games: The BOSS MTC1

Previews - 27214/348070 523072.36 1850 shows +2418

Friday - 24285/498219 453005.59 2596 shows +2658 

 

Its pace is really good. I am expecting it to accelerate by Friday when the reviews hit. 

I think the movie has the potential to make 50M+ if the good pace continue . I think he could make big jump in the final days as the last Transformers if the reviews are really good

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

But late shows resulting in demand being burned off is only really a concern if the early shows are selling out.

 

Maybe.  At the same time, a prospective ticket buyer sees a great seat available at 6:30 pm showing on Thursday might decide to grab it instead of waiting for a similar seat on Fri or Sat. 

 

Some folks really hate even vaguely sub-optimal seats and if they can grab a seat on Thursday that they'd normally wait 'till Fri, Sat, or Sun, they might very well do that. Bargain hunting in action, as it were.

 

Yes, we're only talking about degrees here. But at such a low base, even this sort of degree matters.

[Zakiyyah6]

16 minutes ago, Spidey Freak said:

 

Into the Spider-Verse 

I should have specified live action. Animated movies almost always have a legs advantage.

[Porthos]

10 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

I should have specified live action. Animated movies almost always have a legs advantage.

 

The problem here is "reviews saving a film" is a really subjective question.

 

Like, take M3GAN.  Non-ip Horror is one of the most backloaded genres there is when it comes to pre-sales (even ip-horror is pretty backloaded compared to other ip franchises).  It absolutely exploded even beyond the normal standards of horror films the last couple of days of pre-sales when unexpectedly great reviews came in.  

 

Was it "always" going to do well thanks to the meme factor surrounding it?  I mean, we can debate that 'till the cows come home but I tend to think not to THAT degree.  Especially since we had something like Cocaine Bear just a few weeks later.

 

But then what's the difference between "unexpectedly great reviews" and GA WOM?  If it's really late reviews, maybe not much at all.  

 

Then again, I am of the opinion that reviews are in that quasi- period between "buzz" and WOM, so the later it is to release, the harder it becomes to separate it from the GA's own judgement of a film.

Edited November 7, 2023 by Porthos
got the timing wrong on Cocaine Bear - fixed

[PlatnumRoyce]

22 minutes ago, stephanos13 said:

 

The 5M are not only for Thursday but for all the days.

So what does the "$5M all previews at this point, same as the flash" imply for R previews? Do we have any idea what percentage should be on Thursday versus later in week?

[vafrow]

Not a surprise, but, Cineplex has added back Taylor Swift again this weekend. Friday to Sunday only it seems.

[Inceptionzq]

22 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Marvels Denver Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

314

3221

9.75%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

244

2542

9.60%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 2 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1339	195	27065	4.95%	13	139

 

0.866	The Flash T-3	8.40M
0.428	AtSV T-3	7.42M
0.329	Guardians 3 T-3	5.77M

0.595

Eternals T-3

5.65M

 

Numbers are from a few hours ago

The Marvels Denver Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

360

3219

11.18%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

277

2542

10.90%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1548	209	27582	5.61%	13	145

 

0.881	The Flash T-2	8.54M
0.420	AtSV T-2	7.29M
0.343	Guardians 3 T-2	6.01M

0.621

Eternals T-2

5.90M

[Inceptionzq]

22 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Marvels Alamo Drafthouse [+2 days of sales]

T-3 Thursday

213 Showings

5164

+652

29899

ATP:

17.01

1.003	The Flash T-3	9.73M
0.574	AtSV T-3	9.97M
0.377	Guardians 3 T-3	6.59M
0.792	Eternals T-3	7.52M

 

T-4 Friday

271 Showings

5555

+1060

38867

ATP:

16.74

1.553	The Flash T-4	22.99M
0.659	AtSV T-4	22.73M
0.415	Guardians 3 T-4	12.68M
0.862	Eternals T-4	18.39M

 

T-5 Saturday

281 Showings

4749

+660

40623

ATP:

15.78

1.530	The Flash T-5	24.02M
0.624	AtSV T-5	23.35M
0.318	Guardians 3 T-5	12.36M
0.739	Eternals T-5	17.82M

 

T-6 Sunday

260 Showings

2421

+447

37609

ATP:

15.56

1.357	The Flash T-6	21.03M
0.480	AtSV T-6	14.98M
0.276	Guardians 3 T-6	8.67M
0.617	Eternals T-6	10.07M

The Marvels Alamo Drafthouse

T-2 Thursday

267 Showings

5914

+750

35711

ATP:

16.94

1.021	The Flash T-2	9.90M
0.562	AtSV T-2	9.76M
0.385	Guardians 3 T-2	6.73M
0.829	Eternals T-2	7.88M

 

T-3 Friday

385 Showings

6584

+1029

53135

ATP:

16.59

1.462	The Flash T-3	21.64M
0.652	AtSV T-3	22.50M
0.424	Guardians 3 T-3	12.96M
0.879	Eternals T-3	18.75M

 

T-4 Saturday

387 Showings

5526

+777

53855

ATP:

15.74

1.463	The Flash T-4	22.96M
0.623	AtSV T-4	23.31M
0.322	Guardians 3 T-4	12.53M
0.765	Eternals T-4	18.44M

 

T-5 Sunday

365 Showings

2830

+409

50610

ATP:

15.49

1.253	The Flash T-5	19.43M
0.489	AtSV T-5	15.29M
0.282	Guardians 3 T-5	8.88M
0.644	Eternals T-5	10.51M

[Hilts]

23 hours ago, Hilts said:

 

The Marvels							OK
Thursday - showings starting 3pm						ATP	$16.42
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-7	25	188	41	817	33,709	2.42%	5.28%
T-6	25	193	83	900	34,228	2.63%	10.16%
T-5	25	193	30	930	34,228	2.72%	3.33%
T-4	25	193	29	959	34,228	2.80%	3.12%
T-3	25	196	111	1,070	34,589	3.09%	11.57%
MTC1	8	59	+31	499	10,485	4.76%	6.62%
MTC2	4	48	+20	151	8,204	1.84%	15.27%
MTC3	3	39	+49	323	8,077	4.00%	17.88%
Other	10	50	+11	97	7,823	1.24%	12.79%
Comps
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					0.661x	=	$4.76m
Barbie					0.198x	=	$4.41m
Oppenheimer					0.423x	=	$4.44m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					0.751x	=	$6.61m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem					1.085x	=	$6.08m
Five Nights at Freddy's					0.487x	=	$5.02m

 

Matinee: 5.14%

3D: 8.97%

PLF: 56.17%

 

Comp average: $5.22m

 

Finally, best day locally since Day 1. Unfortunately it still slipped on almost all comps. My region does seem to be the floor though.

 

The Marvels							OK
Thursday - showings starting 3pm						ATP	$16.18
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-6	25	193	83	900	34,228	2.63%	10.16%
T-5	25	193	30	930	34,228	2.72%	3.33%
T-4	25	193	29	959	34,228	2.80%	3.12%
T-3	25	196	111	1,070	34,589	3.09%	11.57%
T-2	25	230	194	1,264	37,761	3.35%	18.13%
MTC1	8	62	+52	551	11,148	4.94%	10.42%
MTC2	4	49	+47	198	8,320	2.38%	31.13%
MTC3	3	44	+48	371	8,679	4.27%	14.86%
Other	10	75	+47	144	9,614	1.50%	48.45%
Comps
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					0.709x	=	$5.10m
Barbie					0.199x	=	$4.43m
Oppenheimer					0.436x	=	$4.58m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					0.757x	=	$6.66m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem					0.989x	=	$5.54m
Five Nights at Freddy's					0.505x	=	$5.20m

 

Matinee: 5.38%

3D: 9.89%

PLF: 52.37%

 

Comp average: $5.25m

 

Phew busy day whilst everyone sorts out final sets. Increased against Indy and FNAF. I would guess $5.5m-$6m for now if it continues that trend.

[Inceptionzq]

22 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Marvels Emagine Entertainment [+2 days of sales]

T-3 Thursday

159 Showings

1653

+217

25399

0.794	The Flash T-3	7.70M
0.521	AtSV T-3	9.05M

 

T-4 Friday

247 Showings

1567

+417

40057

1.041	The Flash T-4	15.41M
0.453	AtSV T-4	15.62M

 

T-5 Saturday

258 Showings

1317

+381

41112

1.140	The Flash T-5	17.90M
0.676	AtSV T-5	25.27M

 

T-6 Sunday

249 Showings

544

+138

39921

0.896	The Flash T-6	13.89M
0.703	AtSV T-6	21.96M

The Marvels Emagine Entertainment

T-2 Thursday

189 Showings

2000

+347

28183

0.789	The Flash T-2	7.65M
0.507	AtSV T-2	8.80M

 

T-3 Friday

342 Showings

2096

+529

49046

1.135	The Flash T-3	16.80M
0.470	AtSV T-3	16.21M

 

T-4 Saturday

342 Showings

1756

+439

49799

1.228	The Flash T-4	19.28M
0.702	AtSV T-4	26.24M

 

T-5 Sunday

290 Showings

695

+151

43953

0.864	The Flash T-5	13.40M
0.685	AtSV T-5	21.42M

[Hilts]

Journey to Bethlehem							OK
Thursday - showings starting 2pm						ATP	$10.76
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-6	11	36	6	27	4,750	0.57%	28.57%
T-5	11	36	2	29	4,750	0.61%	7.41%
T-4	11	36	7	36	4,750	0.76%	24.14%
T-3	11	37	8	44	4,811	0.91%	22.22%
T-2	17	55	9	53	6,181	0.86%	20.45%
MTC1	4	14	+4	15	1,738	0.86%	36.36%
MTC2	3	12	0	6	1,260	0.48%	0.00%
MTC3	3	12	+3	26	1,524	1.71%	13.04%
Other	7	17	+2	6	1,659	0.36%	50.00%
Comps
Asteroid City					0.321x	=	$0.35m
My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3					0.624x	=	$0.34m
After Death					0.361x	=	$0.14m
Priscilla					0.757x	=	$0.34m

 

Matinee: 30.19%

 

Comp average: $300k

 

Bit late to the party but not expecting much here. Pretty substantial matinee sales too so ATP also pretty low.

[MovieMan89]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

 

The problem here is "reviews saving a film" is a really subjective question.

 

Like, take M3GAN.  Non-ip Horror is one of the most backloaded genres there is when it comes to pre-sales (even ip-horror is pretty backloaded compared to other ip franchises).  It absolutely exploded even beyond the normal standards of horror films the last couple of days of pre-sales when unexpectedly great reviews came in.  

 

Was it "always" going to do well thanks to the meme factor surrounding it?  I mean, we can debate that 'till the cows come home but I tend to think not to THAT degree.  Especially since we had something like Cocaine Bear just a few weeks later.

 

But then what's the difference between "unexpectedly great reviews" and GA WOM?  If it's really late reviews, maybe not much at all.  

 

Then again, I am of the opinion that reviews are in that quasi- period between "buzz" and WOM, so the later it is to release, the harder it becomes to separate it from the GA's own judgement of a film.

I think reviews for MCU matter more than maybe anything else because MCU set a precedent for years as THE franchise with consistently great critical reception. So people are still conditioned to see something like sub 70% (or even sub 75%) for MCU and go “oh, that must not be very good then.” 

[Hilts]

23 hours ago, Hilts said:

 

The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes							OK
Thursday - showings starting 3pm						ATP	$15.43
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-14	20	83	94	342	15,757	2.17%	37.90%
T-13	20	84	94	436	15,838	2.75%	27.49%
T-12	20	84	58	494	15,838	3.12%	13.30%
T-11	20	84	75	569	15,838	3.59%	15.18%
T-10	20	88	96	665	16,237	4.10%	16.87%
MTC1	8	28	+40	312	5,040	6.19%	14.71%
MTC2	4	23	+3	120	3,655	3.28%	2.56%
MTC3	3	20	+38	156	5,355	2.91%	32.20%
Other	5	17	+15	77	2,187	3.52%	24.19%
Comps
Barbie					0.291x	=	$6.46m
Blue Beetle					4.926x	=	$16.26m
The Creator					6.101x	=	$9.76m
Five Nights At Freddy's					0.545x	=	$5.61m
The Marvels					0.964x

 

Matinee: 5.26%

3D: 1.80%

PLF: 34.44%

 

I think this is okay. The fact sales aren't dipping at this point shows WOM is still spreading. Recent daily sales are on par with Oppenheimer here and outpacing FNAF. Another day like this and it will overtake Marvels tomorrow.

 

The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes							OK
Thursday - showings starting 3pm						ATP	$15.14
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-13	20	84	94	436	15,838	2.75%	27.49%
T-12	20	84	58	494	15,838	3.12%	13.30%
T-11	20	84	75	569	15,838	3.59%	15.18%
T-10	20	88	96	665	16,237	4.10%	16.87%
T-9	24	101	112	777	17,663	4.40%	16.84%
MTC1	8	28	+36	348	5,040	6.90%	11.54%
MTC2	4	28	+10	130	4,176	3.11%	8.33%
MTC3	3	20	+25	181	5,355	3.38%	16.03%
Other	9	25	+41	118	3,092	3.82%	53.25%
Comps
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					0.733x	=	$5.28m
Barbie					0.290x	=	$6.43m
Oppenheimer					0.577x	=	$6.06m
Five Nights At Freddy's					0.575x	=	$5.92m
The Marvels					1.070x

 

Matinee: 5.28%

3D: 1.54%

PLF: 32.95%

 

Comp average: $5.92m

 

Shuffled out some comps as were not particularly representative of this emerging beast. And overtook Marvels as expected. Now how much can it grow the gap.

[keysersoze123]

Marvels is getting big increase in show count today as expected. Makes tracking more difficult :-)

[vafrow]

21 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Hunger Games Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes, T-10, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Tickets sold: 148

New sales: 16

Growth: 12.1%

Theatres: 5 out of 5

Showtimes: 19

Chains tracked: MTC4, via manual count from chain app

 

COMPS

0.364x of Marvels for ??

 

Single theatre comps

0.545x T:ROTB for $4.8M

1.200x IJ:DoD for $8.6M

Avg: $6.7M

 

Tickets per showtime analysis (tickets sold/showtimes= tickets per showtime)

Avg: 7.8

 

By timing:

Late Afternoon: 2.3

Early Evening: 12.9

Late Evening: 3.6

 

By format:

Regular: 1.7

Dolby: 8.7

VIP: 15.0

IMAX: 8.0

4DX: 2.5

 

I threw in some local comps, but at low figures this low, best not to read too much into it. Growth rate of 12% is pretty good this far is pretty good. 

 

We'll get new showtimes starting tomorrow night. We'll see if there's an expansion of any significance. But, with next weekend being pretty crowded, it may not get much.

 

 

Hunger Games Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes, T-9, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Tickets sold: 179

New sales: 31

Growth: 20.9%

Theatres: 5 out of 5

Showtimes: 19

Chains tracked: MTC4, via manual count from chain app

 

COMPS

0.454x of Marvels for ??

 

Single theatre comps

0.545x T:ROTB for $4.8M

1.200x IJ:DoD for $8.6M

Avg: $6.7M

 

Tickets per showtime analysis (tickets sold/showtimes= tickets per showtime)

Avg: 9.4

 

By timing:

Late Afternoon: 2.3

Early Evening: 15.8

Late Evening: 4.3

 

By format:

Regular: 4.0

Dolby: 9.9

VIP: 17.0

IMAX: 8.5

4DX: 6.5

 

Growth jumped back up to 20%.

 

Theres new showtimes being added today, but I tried to do the count before that to not mess things up. I'll try and update impact on showtimes tomorrow.

[abracadabra1998]

On 11/6/2023 at 5:32 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

The Marvels (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	126	161	1548	22221	6.97

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		1077	86	69.57
MTC1:		820	80	52.97
Marcus:		191	31	12.34
Alamo:		111	9	7.17
Other chains:		426	41	27.52

 

Comps:

0.47x Oppenheimer: $4.94 Million

1.02x Mission Impossible 7 (Tuesday): $7.11 Million

1.07x Indiana Jones 5: $7.71 Million

0.79x FNAF: $8.13 Million

0.3x Barbie (Just Thursday): $6.42 Million

 

Average: $6.86 Million

 

Added Barbie, really late and maybe should have added it earlier, but it's the closest value to what seems to be the average of all the comps around here. Anyway, it dropped against every comp, including MI7 which was Friday into Saturday (every blockbuster I've comped it with increases at T-3 because of this, so that is baaaaad).

 

Journey to Bethlehem (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 16 theaters	43	9	47	4068	1.16

 

Comps:

0.25x After Death: $100k

0.59x Big Fat Greek Wedding 3: $323k

0.21x Asteroid City: $232k

 

Average: $218k

 

Seeing this one through to the end, sunk cost fallacy at this point it but oh well

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

The Marvels (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	172	255	1803	27039	6.67

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		1213	136	67.28
MTC1:		957	137	53.08
Marcus:		212	21	11.76
Alamo:		125	14	6.93
Other chains:		509	83	28.23

 

Comps:

0.47x Oppenheimer: $4.92 Million

1.01x Mission Impossible 7 (Tuesday): $7.09 Million

1.05x Indiana Jones 5: $7.57 Million

0.79x FNAF: $8.13 Million

0.29x Barbie (Just Thursday): $6.24 Million

 

Average: $6.79 Million

 

Lot of showtimes added today, took me a lot longer than usual to get everything together and counted. Anyways, it finally slowed down the bleeding, Barbie was the only comp that saw a significant drop. Very keen to see what the review effect is like.

 

Journey to Bethlehem (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	51	20	67	4548	1.47

 

Comps:

0.29x After Death: $115k

0.54x Big Fat Greek Wedding 3: $300k

0.2x Asteroid City: $218k

 

Average: $211k

 

150-200k is my prediction and I am 97% sure they will not even report previews lol

 

[TwoMisfits]

2nd local (non-PLF 12 Cinemark) set...I don't know which chains are expanding The Marvels, but it's not Cinemark - this theater also gave it nothing more...

 

NEW

The Marvels - 3 screens - 13 showings - lowest MCU number of showings, ever?  (This would require me to check...a lot)

Journey to Bethlehem - 1 screen (midszie)

Radical - 1 screen - mentioning this b/c it's a foreign film, but not one from Asia (which my 2 Cinemarks get a lot of)

Japan - almost 2 screens (Paw Patrol gets the early show) - mentioning this one b/c it's more than 1 screen

 

Holdovers

Taylor - 1 screen

FNAF - 1 screen

KOTFM - 1 screen

Gran Turismo - 1 screen - this is how you know how weak this weekend looks - this is like the Exorcist booking at the last theater

Paw Patrol - 1 showing

Other foreign films - 1 screen

 

Dropped

Glisten, After Death. Saw X, Exorcist, some other foreign films

 

Yes, if you're counting, at a 12, that's almost 4 screens for foreign films and 1 screen for a re-return on an MCU opening weekend.  This is nuts.  

Edited November 8, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[Johnny Tran]

I'm just confused by the trades.  Surely they have data to look at, no?  Just a couple weeks ago, maybe not even they were saying $70-80M for 'The Marvels" and they were calling that a bad holdover from the first movie.  But they had nothing stating that it could and was likely to go even lower.  Until now.  

 

Y'all in here have been on it for weeks.  Congrats again.  The trades are getting beat up by this thread.  

[TheFlatLannister]

On 11/6/2023 at 6:48 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THANKSGIVING

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-10

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
123	146	20993	0.69%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

16

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-10

 

(0.276x) of Exorcist $787K Previews

(0.271x) of KoTFM $706K Previews

Comps AVG: $746k

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THANKSGIVING

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-9

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
123	151	20993	0.72%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

5

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-9

 

(0.268x) of Exorcist $764K Previews

(0.276x) of KoTFM $716K Previews

Comps AVG: $740k