The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[vafrow]

21 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Hunger Games Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes, T-4, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Tickets sold: 293

New sales: 44

Growth: 17.7%

Theatres: 5 out of 5

Showtimes: 21

Chains tracked: MTC4, via manual count from chain app

 

COMPS

0.565x of Marvels for $3.7M

0.402x of FNAF for $4.1M

Avg: $3.9M

 

Single theatre comps

0.545x T:ROTB for $4.8M

1.200x IJ:DoD for $8.6M

Avg: $6.7M

 

Tickets per showtime analysis 

Avg: 14.0

 

By timing:

Late Afternoon: 2.8

Early Evening: 24.4

Late Evening: 7.8

 

By format:

Regular: 4.3

Dolby: 19.4

VIP: 15.2

IMAX: 13.0

4DX: 8.0

 

Really good day. Doubled the growth rate of the last few days.

 

I brought FNAF as a comp as the only other film I have for this particular set of theatres. That it's falling in range is encouraging. The fact that my region is tracking less than others is not ideal. I can't think of why this wouldn't do as well up here. Maybe it's that both Fnaf and Marvels did better.

 

The single theatre comps aren't really that useful, but keeping them there for now.

 

Hunger Games Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes, T-3, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Tickets sold: 323

New sales: 30

Growth: 10.2%

Theatres: 5 out of 5

Showtimes: 21

Chains tracked: MTC4, via manual count from chain app

 

COMPS

0.566x of Marvels for $3.7M

0.365x of FNAF for $3.8M

Avg: $3.7M

 

Single theatre comps

0.609x T:ROTB for $5.4M

1.400x IJ:DoD for $10.1M

Avg: $7.7M

 

Tickets per showtime analysis 

Avg: 15.4

 

By timing:

Late Afternoon: 4.3

Early Evening: 26.4

Late Evening: 8.5

 

By format:

Regular: 5.0

Dolby: 21.3

VIP: 18.0

IMAX: 13.3

4DX: 8.0

 

Came back down after a good day yesterday. It stayed pace with Marvels, when it needs to be gaining.

 

 

 

 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 11/12/2023 at 6:26 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THANKSGIVING

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-4

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
123	198	20993	0.94%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

13

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-4

 

(0.252x) of Exorcist $717K Previews

(0.296x) of KoTFM $768K Previews

Comps AVG: $742k

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THANKSGIVING

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
130	215	22191	0.97%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

17

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

7

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-3

 

(0.249x) of Exorcist $711K Previews

(0.511x) of Haunting at Venice $613K Previews

Comps AVG: $662k

[TheFlatLannister]

On 11/12/2023 at 6:27 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THE HUNGER GAMES: THE BALLAD OF SONGBIRDS AND SNAKES

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-4

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
182	2119	34982	6.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

105

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-4

 

(0.554x) of TLM $5.71M Previews

(0.548x) of FNAF $5.65M Previews

(0.632x) of The Flash $6.13M Previews

(0.743x) of The Marvels $4.90M Previews

Comps AVG: $5.60M

 

Solid growth. Nothing to crazy though 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THE HUNGER GAMES: THE BALLAD OF SONGBIRDS AND SNAKES

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
182	2241	34982	6.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

122

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-3

 

(0.545x) of TLM $5.59M Previews

(0.520x) of FNAF $5.35M Previews

(0.620x) of The Flash $6.02M Previews

(0.737x) of The Marvels $4.87M Previews

Comps AVG: $5.46M

 

Lost ground against most comps. Reviews probably did stunt growth 

[Potiki]

1 hour ago, Mojoguy said:

Everyone knows Wish is coming out on streaming. Depends on whether they put it up on D+ early on Christmas again like they did for the last 2 years.

Wish does not have a 30 day window like Encanto or Strange World. 

 

I think it will have a very healthy window, maybe even similar Indy 5 but that is just a guess due to the staggered international release this film has like Frozen II and the previous WDAS holiday season films. 

 

I will say personally it sucks that I have to wait until Boxing Day or later to see the film, one of the good things about the short window is it pretty much forced a day and date worldwide release for most markets. 

[Mojoguy]

2 minutes ago, Potiki said:

Wish does not have a 30 day window like Encanto or Strange World. 

 

I think it will have a very healthy window, maybe even similar Indy 5 but that is just a guess due to the staggered international release this film has like Frozen II and the previous WDAS holiday season films. 

 

I will say personally it sucks that I have to wait until Boxing Day or later to see the film, one of the good things about the short window is it pretty much forced a day and date worldwide release for most markets. 

Good to hear. The Nov Disney animated movies out by Christmas on D+ was one of the stupidest things ever. Hopefully Wish makes as much as possible over Christmas break.

[Grebacio]

3 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

I think Wish has the advantage. But who knows for sure. Trolls reviews are not great and we have not seen Audience score despite the movie having early screenings !!! Unless Wish also has meh reviews and then it does not matter. Do we know when reactions/reviews for Wish will come out?

There are a couple of reviews on Letterboxd. According to one of them, embargo for crítics lifts on November 17 

Wish on Letterboxd https://boxd.it/CFtS

[MovieMan89]

6 hours ago, Mojoguy said:

Which movie has the bigger advantage over the other?

 

Trolls for coming out first or Wish for opening on Thanksgiving week?

I don’t think that matters. What matters is reviews for Wish. I think Trolls has a bit more universal kid appeal, whereas if Wish doesn’t get good reception then the target female demo may be easily swayed to Trolls instead. 

[keysersoze123]

On 11/12/2023 at 3:24 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Trolls Band Together MTC1

Previews - 5261/315879 75161.87 2096 shows

Friday - 10418/418867 149062.70 2657 shows

 

Good growth for friday. Previews are just ambling along. 

Trolls Band Together MTC1

Previews - 6215/323717 88443.95 2157 shows +954

Friday - 13945/444159 199792.03 2850 shows +3527

 

Really bad increase for previews but Friday is "good".  

[keysersoze123]

4 hours ago, Grebacio said:

There are a couple of reviews on Letterboxd. According to one of them, embargo for crítics lifts on November 17 

Wish on Letterboxd https://boxd.it/CFtS

Considering its early shows are on 18th, that is really late. I am really surprised by Disney tactics these days. I have a feeling this is going to be another middling reviewed movie. Even Marvels got "good" early reviews on letterboxd.  

[Porthos]

On 11/13/2023 at 12:59 AM, Porthos said:

 

Quick and Dirty The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes Sacramento Report [T-4]

1123/13395 (8.38% sold) [+108 tickets] [90 showings]

 

1.12864x GBA at T-4                [5.74m] [ADJUSTED FOR ATP HIKES]
0.66489x FB3 at T-4                [3.99m]
0.59544x BA at T-4                  [4.53m]
0.36759x TLM at T-4                [3.79m]
0.28481x AtSV at T-4               [4.94m]
0.66215x RotB at T-4               [5.83m]
0.34051x FNAF at T-4              [3.51m]
0.62251x The Marvels at T-4   [4.11m]

 

===

 

No real movement on the GBA and RotB comps, but not much movement on the BA comp either.  AtSV did go up a smidge, FWIW.  Might just be looking somewhere between 4.5m and 5.5m as a plausible range.  Maybe a bit higher if one is more optimistic than I am.

 

Gonna do a Q&D all the way through to the end, I suppose.

 

Quick and Dirty The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes Sacramento Report [T-3]

1308/15290 (8.55% sold) [+185 tickets] [115 showings]

 

1.11130x GBA at T-3                  [5.65m] [ADJUSTED FOR ATP HIKES]
0.66161x FB3 at T-3                  [3.97m]
0.60221x BA at T-3                   [4.58m]
0.36980x TLM at T-3                [3.81m]
0.29334x AtSV at T-3               [5.09m]
0.66127x RotB at T-3                [5.82m]
0.35390x FNAF at T-3              [3.65m]
0.64338x The Marvels at T-3  [4.25m]

[Relevation]

7 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Considering its early shows are on 18th, that is really late. I am really surprised by Disney tactics these days. I have a feeling this is going to be another middling reviewed movie. Even Marvels got "good" early reviews on letterboxd.  

Guardians 3 dropped its review embargo the day of EA shows, I don’t really think going a day before is a particularly bad omen for Wish when it’s still a good 5 days out from release and social reactions are waaaaaaaaay better than Marvels

[YM!]

4 minutes ago, Relevation said:

Guardians 3 dropped its review embargo the day of EA shows, I don’t really think going a day before is a particularly bad omen for Wish when it’s still a good 5 days out from release and social reactions are waaaaaaaaay better than Marvels

The big test is today. Think the trade reactions will be a good gouge of what type of reviews it gets.

[filmlover]

I'm a Disney fan and honestly, even I'm not really feeling Wish. It appears too derivative of other classics of theirs on the surface IMO. We'll see what the reviews are like, and it'll obviously do better than Strange World, but I don't feel the opening is going to approach what Coco did on the same Thanksgiving frame in 2017.

[Dreamss]

Hey guys, what is Renaissance Thursday preview looking like? Is over $2 million locked?

[Giorno]

do reviews even matter? elementals had mediocre reviews coming out of canned and still hit with audiences, as long as wish makes young girls happy then its gonna be a big hit

[YM!]

8 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Trolls Band Together MTC1

Previews - 6215/323717 88443.95 2157 shows +954

Friday - 13945/444159 199792.03 2850 shows +3527

 

Really bad increase for previews but Friday is "good".  

Any idea for opening Friday?

[keysersoze123]

12 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Hunger Games: The BOSS MTC1

Previews(T-4) - 44475/387597 832928.39 2024 shows +3949

Friday - 46131/514225 833047.61 2664 shows +5018

 

Previews I started grabbing end of day yesterday. Its only about 12 hrs of data. Let us see how one day pace goes today. I am thinking 6m previews for now based on this data. 

Hunger Games: The BOSS MTC1

Previews(T-3) - 50789/413130 942173.67 2227 shows +6314

Friday - 54790/584307 980808.80 3165 shows +8659

 

This is as of yesterday night. I would say its very good day without any catalyst. This will have better saturday increase and Sunday Drop(next week Monday is like a Summer weekday) as well. Definitely over 50m OW. 

[M37]

On 11/3/2023 at 3:56 PM, M37 said:

The Marvels Preview Tracking T-7 Update

 

Something picture lots of words

 

Average has been fluctuating around $7M depending on which comp are updated each day. I suppose the good news is that Marvels largely is holding very steady against these comps - a whole lot of straight lines - but in MCU terms the bar is decently high for the finishing pace, and there's really not much to suggest its poised to outrun them over the final 7 days, if not potentially start to slide down. Will plant a flag on $7M previews, but if Disney doesn't round to nearest half million, maybe a bit below that, unless some of the lower comp values can start to come up and meet MTC1

Note: Marvels should do improve against Eternals comps over the next 3 days, but I wouldn't read too much into that, as the comp period was Oct 29-31

 

As far as the IM and OW ... Friday numbers and beyond are actually lower. The day/day ratios for Drafthouse are very similar to GOTG3 and ATSV, which posted a 6.77x and 6.94x respectively, as opposed to Eternals 7.5x (despite being dragged down by reviews/WOM). The underlying issue is that sales thusfar are both Thursday and PLF heavy, and if the GA doesn't start showing up for Thursday, not sure why they would suddenly on the weekend. Friday probably gets an added walk-up bump due to work & school holiday observation of Veteran's day, but overall I'd probably take the under on a 7x IM (even if barely)

 

Put those two values together, and, well, yeah ....

 

  Hide contents

Let's try this again?

 

Marvels Forecast Matrix (T-7)		Thursday Preview Gross Range
		$5.70	$6.00	$6.30	$6.60	$6.90	$7.20	$7.50	$7.80	$8.10
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)	5.70	$32.5	$34.2	$35.9	$37.6	$39.3	$41.0	$42.8	$44.5	$46.2
	5.98	$34.1	$35.9	$37.6	$39.4	$41.2	$43.0	$44.8	$46.6	$48.4
	6.25	$35.6	$37.5	$39.4	$41.3	$43.1	$45.0	$46.9	$48.8	$50.6
	6.53	$37.2	$39.2	$41.1	$43.1	$45.0	$47.0	$48.9	$50.9	$52.9
	6.80	$38.8	$40.8	$42.8	$44.9	$46.9	$49.0	$51.0	$53.0	$55.1
	7.08	$40.3	$42.5	$44.6	$46.7	$48.8	$50.9	$53.1	$55.2	$57.3
	7.35	$41.9	$44.1	$46.3	$48.5	$50.7	$52.9	$55.1	$57.3	$59.5
	7.63	$43.5	$45.8	$48.0	$50.3	$52.6	$54.9	$57.2	$59.5	$61.8
	7.90	$45.0	$47.4	$49.8	$52.1	$54.5	$56.9	$59.3	$61.6	$64.0

 

 

You may notice the previous 8x8 ballpark - $8M thur & 8x - is now basically the bottom right corner, and 7x7 seems more likely. The blue line represents the cut-off for lowest MCU OW [whether one counts Universal's Hulk ($55.4M) or Ant-Man ($57.2M)] while the red line is the Morbius Zone, which cannot yet be ruled out, barring some poor reviews or some other combination of poor pace and lower IM

 

Maybe being the only non-horror (or concert) film of note since Labor Day brings people in by default, or perhaps the premiere/social media reactions/reviews helps turn a corner at the last minute, but to me even an "optimistic" outcome is nudging up into the light green zone over $50M

Marvels Forecast Matrix (T-7)		Thursday Preview Gross Range
		$5.70	$6.00	$6.30	$6.60	$6.90	$7.20	$7.50	$7.80	$8.10
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)	5.70	$32.5	$34.2	$35.9	$37.6	$39.3	$41.0	$42.8	$44.5	$46.2
	5.98	$34.1	$35.9	$37.6	$39.4	$41.2	$43.0	$44.8	$46.6	$48.4
	6.25	$35.6	$37.5	$39.4	$41.3	$43.1	$45.0	$46.9	$48.8	$50.6
	6.53	$37.2	$39.2	$41.1	$43.1	$45.0	$47.0	$48.9	$50.9	$52.9
	6.80	$38.8	$40.8	$42.8	$44.9	$46.9	$49.0	$51.0	$53.0	$55.1
	7.08	$40.3	$42.5	$44.6	$46.7	$48.8	$50.9	$53.1	$55.2	$57.3
	7.35	$41.9	$44.1	$46.3	$48.5	$50.7	$52.9	$55.1	$57.3	$59.5
	7.63	$43.5	$45.8	$48.0	$50.3	$52.6	$54.9	$57.2	$59.5	$61.8
	7.90	$45.0	$47.4	$49.8	$52.1	$54.5	$56.9	$59.3	$61.6	$64.0

 

 

Pretty sure this is the closest to dead center the Forecast Matrix has been yet! Previews finished strong-ish, but overindexed at MTCs/metros even more than Flash, so value was lower. IM did manage to climb up just shy of 7x (above GOTG3) aided by the Vet Day holiday bump, before crashing a bit on Sunday

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, Relevation said:

Guardians 3 dropped its review embargo the day of EA shows, I don’t really think going a day before is a particularly bad omen for Wish when it’s still a good 5 days out from release and social reactions are waaaaaaaaay better than Marvels

Guardians they pulled in the review dates and fan shows were planned quite late on that week. That was a sign of confidence. Here family movies they let critics see them early and write reviews. 

 

Those who talk about Elemental WOM, it had mediocre OW and so usual Pixar faithful in the pre COVID era stayed away.

 

I hope I am wrong on this but for now color me skeptical until I see the scores.  

[keysersoze123]

44 minutes ago, YM! said:

Any idea for opening Friday?

its about 1/4th of BOSS. Of course this will see better walkups. I am expecting Hunger Games to double this movie.