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Shawn Robbins

The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

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A small Napoleon update:

It had today 310 sold tickets for Friday.
Up modest 37% since last Friday.

Comps (always the final presales number of the films = taken on Thursday of the release week for Friday): The Last Duel (1.45M true Friday) had 124 sold tickets,
The Northman (3.6M) had 558 sold tickets
Death on the Nile (4M) had 498 sold tickets
and The Green Knight (2.15M) had 498 sold tickets.

As I said before Napoleon will be (comfortable) in front next Thursday but overall I still have no idea where it will end up.

Edited by el sid
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Thanksgiving, counted today for Thursday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 63 (3 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 14 (3 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 5 (1 showtime)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 6 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 13 (2 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 67 (2 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 92 (5 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 260.

Up so-so 41% since Monday.
Comps (always counted on Wednesday of the release week for Thursday): Smile (2M from previews) had 306 sold tickets,
The Invitation (775k) had 176,
M3gan (2.75M) had 450,
Prey for the Devil (660k) had 140
and HK (4.85M) had 1.006 sold tickets.

 

Thanksgiving, counted today for Friday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 90 (6 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 24 (5 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 12 (4 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 0 (5 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 6 (4 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 41 (5 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 91 (7 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 264.

Up ok 50% since Monday.
Comps (always counted on Wednesday of the release week for Friday): Smile had 399 sold tickets,
The Invitation had 167,
The Nun II had 833,

M3gan had 506,
Prey for the Devil had 207
Saw X had 490
Insidious: The Red Door had 598
and HK had 1.254 sold tickets.

 

Still low to mid-teens. Maybe it recovers like Saw X did right at the end.

 

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19 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-box-office-forecast-the-hunger-games-the-ballad-of-songbirds-and-snakes-next-goal-wins-trolls-band-together-and-thanksgiving/

 

Film Studio 3-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, November 19 Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed) 3-Day % Change from Last Wknd
The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes Lionsgate $47,100,000 $47,100,000 3,700 NEW
Trolls Band Together Universal Pictures $28,200,000 $28,200,000 3,800 NEW
The Marvels Disney & Marvel Studios $16,000,000 $71,300,000 ~4,030 -65%
Thanksgiving Sony Pictures & TriStar $12,000,000 $12,000,000 3,200 NEW
Next Goal Wins Disney & Searchlight Pictures $4,200,000 $4,200,000 ~2,300 NEW
Five Nights at Freddy’s Universal Pictures & Blumhouse $4,000,000 $133,400,000 ~3,000 -55%
Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour AMC Theatres Distribution & Variance Films $3,100,000 $176,100,000 ~1,900 -49%
Priscilla A24 $2,800,000 $18,000,000 ~2,000 -42%
The Holdovers Focus Features $2,700,000 $8,400,000 ~1,600 -16%
Killers of the Flower Moon Paramount Pictures & Apple $2,600,000 $64,500,000 ~2,000 -43%

Exactly $1M forecasted above Marvels 😂

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16 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

10m True friday from where it is now is highly unlikely. Elemental did around 9.3m true friday this has weaker presales compared to that. Plus School is also on at this time. I think 10m with everything including early shows is possible. 

Yeah i'm agree for me i'm thinking 10-10,5M OD ( true friday + previews) and a OW of 27-29M . I just asking for @YM! if it's true friday or friday+ previews OD

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8 minutes ago, Grand Cine said:

Now if Hunger games don't go with more than 50M OW , what is the next movie to open with more than 50M OW because for me it could be Dune 2 but it's in March , that's so far

KFP4 if it stays in March

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The Hunger Games: BOSS, counted today for Friday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 194 (9 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 203 (9 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 129 (8 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 47 (5 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 119 (6 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 190+ (11 showtimes, 4 Sell Outs reported which is very probably a mistake)
LA (AMC Universal): 446 (14 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 1.328+.

One big problem today: That 4 untrue Sell Outs were reported in the AMC Metreon and therefore I couldn't see the sales of that shows makes an assessment way harder. I just guess that I missed around 250 sold ticket (the other shows are ca. on par with the AMC Universal so the IMAX shows could also have similar sales). That would be around 1.600 sold tickets, not 1.328. I really hope that this mistake is gone by tomorrow and that I get complete numbers.

Comps (so far as they are helpful with the incomplete numbers of Hunger Games; all five films counted on Wednesday of the release week for Friday): Bullet Train (8M true Friday) had 1.000 sold tickets,
Indiana Jones 5 (16.8M) had 1.682,
Uncharted (11.7M) had 982,
Barbie (48.2M) had 6.675
and The Meg 2 (8.8M) had 486 sold tickets.
The Marvels (14.7M true Friday) had 2.460 sold tickets on Thursday = Hunger Games has 1 day left to come closer.
And GotG III (30.7M true Friday) had also 1 day later 4.484 sold tickets

 

I have to admit that I expected a bit better numbers. But OTOH if it follows e.g. Indiana Jones 50M+ OW still could happen.

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On 11/8/2023 at 12:22 AM, Porthos said:

 

Quick and Dirty Wish Sacramento Report [T-14]

300/11241 (2.67% sold) [+19 tickets]  [62/994 EA | 238/10247 Tue]

 

1.89873x Elemental at T-14 [NO COMP YET DUE TO MIX OF EA & DISCOUNT TUESDAY]

0.98039x Elemental at T-7

---

TUESDAY ONLY COMP:
1.00847x TMNT:MM at T-12 [3.83m - TUE ONLY]

 

====
 

So.  So I've been softing for a while now that I liked what I was seeing out of Sacramento when it came to Wish, and now maybe people might understand why.  I've been watching it for the last few days and it really is about one week ahead of Elemental on raw ticket salesThis time last week, though I didn't post it since I didn't have a T-21 number for Elemental, Wish was around 150-ish tickets sold, more or less.  Didn't write down the exact number, but noted with interest that it was about the same-is place as Elemental was at T-14.

 

And lookie here, more or less the same place as Elemental was at T-7.

 

Now there are two complicating factors:  Discount Tuesday and Early Access.  If I had a TMNT number for T-14, I could probably try to piece together some sort of total comp out of the disparate parts.  Problem is, Paramount only reported a Tues Number (ie without EA sales factored in) and Disney very very likely will be reporting Sat sales as part of its Tue preview.

 

Well, that's my bet at least, especially with the level of showings it has on Sat.

 

Can say that on pure Tuesday sales, Wish has already caught up to where TMNT:MM was at T-12.  Now TMNT had far more Sneaks/EA sales, but Paramount didn't report those so... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

Anyway, all I can say is that Wish is doing much better than Elemental was at this stage, and is almost certainly decently ahead of it even with DT pricing factored in. Also will note that there is 1] A lot of room for EA sales and 2] Comparatively speaking not as many EA sales as some films have had that had Sat EA/Sneaks.

 

Doesn't mean it's gonna be a breakout or be a leggy massive hit or anything else.  But "liking what I'm seeing out of Sacramento"?!?  Oh yes, very much so.

 

Quick and Dirty Wish Sacramento Report [T-7] (all seats sold as of [very] late last night)

558/11692 (4.77% sold) [+24 tickets] [160/1160 EA | 398/10532 Tue]  85 showings (9 EA | 76 Tue)

 

1.82353x Elemental at T-7 [STILL NO OVERALL COMP THANKS TO EA/DT MIX]

 

EA ONLY COMP:

0.36866x Elemental at T-4 [0.88m - SAT ONLY]

---

TUESDAY ONLY COMP:

0.92991x TMNT:MM at T-7 [3.58m - TUE ONLY]

 

Mostly sales data this time as I'm still chewing over exactly how to account all of the variables here. 

 

Okay, I tell a lie.  Since it's a Q&D I haven't actually spent a hell of a lot of time actually sitting down and figuring out what I want to do here.  Y'alls lucky I'm giving any T-7 data. 😛

 

As noted by many, that TMNT:MM Tue Only comp will be off due to more kids tickets for Wish than for TMNT:MM.  But it's still a decent benchmark, I think.  EA is just starting to pick up (as a matter of fact it's already sold something like 25 tickets since my check last night) so don't read too much into it, one way or the other. 

 

The EA comp is mostly there not so much for predictive value (not sure if the capacity math will check out or not) but more for Final Ticket Sales analysis.  Plus putting it in now lets me actually see if it's going up or down, and how quickly.  I'm using the T-4 number from Elemental for the EA Sat comp for lack of a better idea (it's T-4 to EA Sat).

 

Either way, my 30,000 foot level of the film really hasn't changed.  Maybe it's just playing stronger here than in other markets.  Then again, I have to admit I haven't given a ton of thought when comparing Sacto to other makets coz, well, as said: Q&D. 🙂

 

(as we get closer to release/and I actually think about this more, I'll look to bringing in other comps that may or may not be better than the above)

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Thanksgiving is high key going to be the most acclaimed movie of holiday season, isn’t it? Lmao.

 

RIP the hunger games, I’d say next to zero shot at 100 DOM now that it’s rotten. Could see it going as low as 80 total and failing to beat the Marvels. At least Disney may have some kind of a silver lining after all? Although I better not hear anyone use “no cast promo!” as a Marvels excuse now since THG got it. 

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12 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Quick and Dirty Wish Sacramento Report [T-7] (all seats sold as of [very] late last night)

558/11692 (4.77% sold) [+24 tickets] [160/1160 EA | 398/10532 Tue]  85 showings (9 EA | 76 Tue)

 

1.82353x Elemental at T-7 [STILL NO OVERALL COMP THANKS TO EA/DT MIX]

 

EA ONLY COMP:

0.36866x Elemental at T-4 [0.88m - SAT ONLY]

---

TUESDAY ONLY COMP:

0.92991x TMNT:MM at T-7 [3.58m - TUE ONLY]

 

Mostly sales data this time as I'm still chewing over exactly how to account all of the variables here. 

 

Okay, I tell a lie.  Since it's a Q&D I haven't actually spent a hell of a lot of time actually sitting down and figuring out what I want to do here.  Y'alls lucky I'm giving any T-7 data. 😛

 

As noted by many, that TMNT:MM Tue Only comp will be off due to more kids tickets for Wish than for TMNT:MM.  But it's still a decent benchmark, I think.  EA is just starting to pick up (as a matter of fact it's already sold something like 25 tickets since my check last night) so don't read too much into it, one way or the other. 

 

The EA comp is mostly there not so much for predictive value (not sure if the capacity math will check out or not) but more for Final Ticket Sales analysis.  Plus putting it in now lets me actually see if it's going up or down, and how quickly.  I'm using the T-4 number from Elemental for the EA Sat comp for lack of a better idea (it's T-4 to EA Sat).

 

Either way, my 30,000 foot level of the film really hasn't changed.  Maybe it's just playing stronger here than in other markets.  Then again, I have to admit I haven't given a ton of thought when comparing Sacto to other makets coz, well, as said: Q&D. 🙂

 

(as we get closer to release/and I actually think about this more, I'll look to bringing in other comps that may or may not be better than the above)

Yeah Sacramento ,i think, will overperform than the rest of markets but you had the good target for Elemental so we will see , clarly it's difficult to see a exact prediction because of Embargo ( which will be finish friday) , Early Access , the effect of Thanksgiving effect and the fact that the presales compete with Trolls 3 at the same time . Clearly , the WOM good or bad and the Monday/Tuesday jump will define if the previews will be good or not ( same for the rest of the week)  .

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4 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Thanksgiving is high key going to be the most acclaimed movie of holiday season, isn’t it? Lmao.

 

RIP the hunger games, I’d say next to zero shot at 100 DOM now that it’s rotten. Could see it going as low as 80 total and failing to beat the Marvels. At least Disney may have some kind of a silver lining after all? Although I better not hear anyone use “no cast promo!” as a Marvels excuse now since THG got it. 

Nope , i don't think so it has a good chance to surpass the Marvel which will fell a lot this weekend due to HG , and the latter will have the Thanksgiving effect and i think the general public will have a much better reception than The Marvels

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30 minutes ago, Grand Cine said:

Nope , i don't think so it has a good chance to surpass the Marvel which will fell a lot this weekend due to HG , and the latter will have the Thanksgiving effect and i think the general public will have a much better reception than The Marvels

THG has Thanksgiving on its 2nd weekend so it should be fine. It just needed to have better WOM and Cinemascore than Marvels. THG budget is just 100m, half of Marvels, so the path to success will be easier.

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2 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

THG has Thanksgiving on its 2nd weekend so it should be fine. It just needed to have better WOM and Cinemascore than Marvels. THG budget is just 100m, half of Marvels, so the path to success will be easier.

Yes the movie need to be at 300m to be a little good success

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On 11/14/2023 at 10:56 PM, Hilts said:

 

Trolls Band Together OK
 

Thursday - showings starting 2pm ATP $12.09
 
Day Theatres Showings Daily Sold Total Sold Total Seats % Sold Growth
T-6 24 106 20 135 14,269 0.95% 17.39%
T-5 24 106 10 145 14,269 1.02% 7.41%
T-4 24 106 12 157 14,269 1.10% 8.28%
T-3 24 106 40 197 14,269 1.38% 25.48%
T-2 24 124 36 233 15,659 1.49% 18.27%
 
MTC1 7 27 +4 58 2,978 1.95% 7.41%
MTC2 4 27 +8 48 4,460 1.08% 20.00%
MTC3 3 16 +10 56 2,834 1.98% 21.74%
Other 10 54 +14 71 5,387 1.32% 24.56%
 
Comps
Haunted Mansion 0.571x = $1.77m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem 0.578x = $2.23m

 

Matinee: 14.59%

3D: 7.73%

 

Had a calc error on the 3D split hence the drop. I will take the under on $2m previews for now but it's Fri/Sat that's important.

 

Trolls Band Together OK
 

Thursday - showings starting 2pm ATP $12.23
 
Day Theatres Showings Daily Sold Total Sold Total Seats % Sold Growth
T-5 24 106 10 145 14,269 1.02% 7.41%
T-4 24 106 12 157 14,269 1.10% 8.28%
T-3 24 106 40 197 14,269 1.38% 25.48%
T-2 24 124 36 233 15,659 1.49% 18.27%
T-1 24 147 76 309 18,502 1.67% 32.62%
 
MTC1 7 45 +20 78 4,882 1.60% 34.48%
MTC2 4 29 +17 65 4,904 1.33% 35.42%
MTC3 3 19 +13 69 3,329 2.07% 23.21%
Other 10 54 +28 97 5,387 1.80% 36.62%
 
Comps
Haunted Mansion 0.575x = $1.78m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem 0.532x = $2.05m

 

Matinee: 12.94%

3D: 10.68%

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On 11/14/2023 at 10:58 PM, Hilts said:

 

Thanksgiving OK
 
Thursday - showings starting 7pm ATP $12.72
 
Day Theatres Showings Daily Sold Total Sold Total Seats % Sold Growth
T-6 13 24 2 19 2,921 0.65% 11.76%
T-5 13 24 3 22 2,921 0.75% 15.79%
T-4 13 24 6 28 2,921 0.96% 27.27%
T-3 14 26 4 32 3,089 1.04% 14.29%
T-2 19 33 26 58 3,470 1.67% 81.25%
 
MTC1 5 9 +15 40 878 4.56% 60.00%
MTC2 4 7 +5 6 959 0.63% 500.00%
MTC3 2 4 +2 7 542 1.29% 40.00%
Other 8 13 +4 5 1,091 0.46% 400.00%
 
Comps
Insidious: The Red Door 0.210x = $1.05m
Talk To Me 0.644x = $0.80m
The Last Voyage of the Demeter 0.806x = $0.60m
The Nun II 0.272x = $0.84m
Saw X 0.251x = $0.50m
The Exorcist: Believer 0.209x = $0.59m

 

Comp average: $730k

 

Finally some signs of life. I still think $1m previews is doubtful.

 

Thanksgiving OK
 
Thursday - showings starting 7pm ATP $12.52
 
Day Theatres Showings Daily Sold Total Sold Total Seats % Sold Growth
T-5 13 24 3 22 2,921 0.75% 15.79%
T-4 13 24 6 28 2,921 0.96% 27.27%
T-3 14 26 4 32 3,089 1.04% 14.29%
T-2 19 33 26 58 3,470 1.67% 81.25%
T-1 20 35 31 89 3,626 2.45% 53.45%
 
MTC1 6 11 +13 53 1,034 5.13% 32.50%
MTC2 4 7 +1 7 959 0.73% 16.67%
MTC3 2 4 +12 19 542 3.51% 171.43%
Other 8 13 +5 10 1,091 0.92% 100.00%
 
Comps
Insidious: The Red Door 0.231x = $1.15m
Talk To Me 0.701x = $0.87m
The Last Voyage of the Demeter 0.873x = $0.65m
The Nun II 0.280x = $0.87m
Saw X 0.228x = $0.46m
The Exorcist: Believer 0.259x = $0.74m

 

Comp average: $790k

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On 11/14/2023 at 11:01 PM, Hilts said:

 

The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes OK
 
Thursday - showings starting 3pm ATP $14.82
 
Day Theatres Showings Daily Sold Total Sold Total Seats % Sold Growth
T-6 24 111 87 1,064 19,969 5.33% 8.90%
T-5 24 111 65 1,129 19,969 5.65% 6.11%
T-4 24 111 129 1,258 19,969 6.30% 11.43%
T-3 24 112 188 1,446 20,028 7.22% 14.94%
T-2 25 134 292 1,738 21,890 7.94% 20.19%
 
MTC1 8 37 +107 718 6,023 11.92% 17.51%
MTC2 4 30 +57 274 4,632 5.92% 26.27%
MTC3 3 24 +79 413 5,816 7.10% 23.65%
Other 10 43 +49 333 5,419 6.15% 17.25%
 
Comps
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny 0.975x = $7.02m
Barbie 0.274x = $6.09m
Oppenheimer 0.600x = $6.30m
Five Nights At Freddy's 0.694x = $7.15m
The Marvels 1.375x = $9.08m

 

Matinee: 6.44%

3D: 1.15%

PLF: 33.37%

 

Comp average: $7.13m

 

All comps increased again! It is doing well here. I think it will pass Indy for sure.

 

The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes OK
 
Thursday - showings starting 3pm ATP $14.79
 
Day Theatres Showings Daily Sold Total Sold Total Seats % Sold Growth
T-5 24 111 65 1,129 19,969 5.65% 6.11%
T-4 24 111 129 1,258 19,969 6.30% 11.43%
T-3 24 112 188 1,446 20,028 7.22% 14.94%
T-2 25 134 292 1,738 21,890 7.94% 20.19%
T-1 25 145 383 2,121 24,064 8.81% 22.04%
 
MTC1 8 44 +153 871 7,843 11.11% 21.31%
MTC2 4 32 +82 356 4,830 7.37% 29.93%
MTC3 3 26 +82 495 5,972 8.29% 19.85%
Other 10 43 +66 399 5,419 7.36% 19.82%
 
Comps
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny 1.037x = $7.46m
Barbie 0.283x = $6.28m
Oppenheimer 0.623x = $6.54m
Five Nights At Freddy's 0.690x = $7.11m
The Marvels 1.383x = $9.13m

 

Matinee: 6.41%

3D: 1.27%

PLF: 33.76%

 

Comp average: $7.30m

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On 11/14/2023 at 11:04 PM, Hilts said:

 

Wish OK
 
Saturday - 4pm - Early Access Screening ATP $10.19
 
Day Theatres Showings Daily Sold Total Sold Total Seats % Sold Growth
T-8 6 6 7 42 813 5.17% 20.00%
T-7 6 6 10 52 813 6.40% 23.81%
T-6 6 6 8 60 813 7.38% 15.38%
T-5 6 6 4 64 813 7.87% 6.67%
T-4 6 6 13 77 813 9.47% 20.31%
 
MTC1 2 2 +4 36 230 15.65% 12.50%
MTC2 2 2 0 8 224 3.57% 0.00%
MTC3 2 2 +9 33 359 9.19% 37.50%

 

Tuesday - showings starting 3pm ATP $12.28**
 
Day Theatres Showings Daily Sold Total Sold Total Seats % Sold Growth
T-11 20 87 9 83 13,535 0.61% 12.16%
T-10 20 87 2 85 13,535 0.63% 2.41%
T-9 24 102 3 88 14,888 0.59% 3.53%
T-8 24 104 10 98 15,088 0.65% 11.36%
T-7 24 103 12 110 14,951 0.74% 12.24%
 
MTC1 7 28 +8 67 3,970 1.69% 13.56%
MTC2 4 23 0 17 3,687 0.46% 0.00%
MTC3 3 14 0 8 2,590 0.31% 0.00%
Other 10 38 +4 18 4,704 0.38% 28.57%
 
Comps Raw ATP adj*
Haunted Mansion 0.753x = $2.34m $1.75m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: MM 0.547x = $2.11m  
Trolls Band Together 0.957x      

 

*75%

**only considers Discount Tue across some (not all) theatres and so is largely irrelevant and incalculable.

 

Matinee: 33.64%

3D: 28.18%

 

I think overall this is its best day so far. Unfortunately that is not saying too much.

 

Wish OK
 
Saturday - 4pm - Early Access Screening ATP $10.16
 
Day Theatres Showings Daily Sold Total Sold Total Seats % Sold Growth
T-7 6 6 10 52 813 6.40% 23.81%
T-6 6 6 8 60 813 7.38% 15.38%
T-5 6 6 4 64 813 7.87% 6.67%
T-4 6 6 13 77 813 9.47% 20.31%
T-3 6 6 9 86 813 10.58% 11.69%
 
MTC1 2 2 +5 41 230 17.83% 13.89%
MTC2 2 2 0 8 224 3.57% 0.00%
MTC3 2 2 +4 37 359 10.31% 12.12%

 

Tuesday - showings starting 3pm ATP $12.37**
 
Day Theatres Showings Daily Sold Total Sold Total Seats % Sold Growth
T-10 20 87 2 85 13,535 0.63% 2.41%
T-9 24 102 3 88 14,888 0.59% 3.53%
T-8 24 104 10 98 15,088 0.65% 11.36%
T-7 24 103 12 110 14,951 0.74% 12.24%
T-6 24 107 9 119 15,516 0.77% 8.18%
 
MTC1 7 32 +3 70 4,535 1.54% 4.48%
MTC2 4 23 0 17 3,687 0.46% 0.00%
MTC3 3 14 -1 7 2,590 0.27% -12.50%
Other 10 38 +7 25 4,704 0.53% 38.89%
 
Comps Raw ATP adj*
Haunted Mansion 0.636x = $1.97m $1.48m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: MM 0.529x = $2.04m  
Trolls Band Together 0.881x      

 

*75%

**only considers Discount Tue across some (not all) theatres and so is largely irrelevant and incalculable.

 

Matinee: 31.93%

3D: 28.57%

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