The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Relevation]

2 minutes ago, dallas said:

Why would Aquaman open to less than Shazam ($30.5M) if it's tracking higher? 

Aquaman will have a substantially worse internal multiplier than Shazam so if it’s close in previews Aquaman will fall much behind on the actual weekend

 

8 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Aquaman 2  12:35pm   84/13371    [0.63% sold]

 

Thaaaat’s about 0.24x of The Flash or $2.33M Thurs

 

Or an OW around like $13-15M 

[YachtyLogs]

MIGRATION

THURSDAY PREVIEWS

 

First Day - Afternoon sales

Small SE Wisconsin Sample

 

0/1697 - (0%)

 

New sold: 0

New showtimes: 16

Total showtimes: 16

Seats added: 1697

Total sellouts: 0

 

Yikes, not doing too well. From what I've heard, children animation films are less dependent on presales as other films, but I would've hoped at least one ticket would've been sold by now. 

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, YachtyLogs said:

AQUAMAN 2

THURSDAY PREVIEWS

 

First Day - Afternoon sales

Small SE Wisconsin Sample

 

11/2861 - (0.38%)

 

New sold: 11

New showtimes: 21

Total showtimes: 21

Seats added: 2861

Total sellouts: 0

 

Alright, I've added two new theaters to sample for this one. I question a few of these sales as actual "sales", some of the seats are a single seat on a screen, and they go through for all of the showtimes on that screen. so I doubt it even has as many as 11 sales right now. I don't believe this is a very good start to presales, but we'll see as we get closer!

 

Those are very likely "blanked out" seats and not available for sale. 

 

What I do, when I am in doubt, is check some rando showing that by all logic should have exactly zero sales, check out that auditorium, and if it is in fact marked as sold, I then make a note on my spreadsheets to manually deduct that seat from all showings.

[Austin]

Edit: sorry bit late and detracking

Edited November 20, 2023 by Austin

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, Relevation said:

Thaaaat’s about 0.24x of The Flash or $2.33M Thurs

 

Or an OW around like $13-15M 

 

Can't really compare it to The Flash though, since lower initial base = easier to catch up.  IMO, the better comp really is Shazam 2, especially if it follows its pre-sale curve in the first few days.

[vafrow]

Just now, YachtyLogs said:

MIGRATION

THURSDAY PREVIEWS

 

First Day - Afternoon sales

Small SE Wisconsin Sample

 

0/1697 - (0%)

 

New sold: 0

New showtimes: 16

Total showtimes: 16

Seats added: 1697

Total sellouts: 0

 

Yikes, not doing too well. From what I've heard, children animation films are less dependent on presales as other films, but I would've hoped at least one ticket would've been sold by now. 

 

This isn't out of the ordinary. Original animation will be a slow starter. Even Elemental isn't a good comparison, because it has a stronger brand for original animation.

 

What's the school schedule in your region? Are kids off by that point, or do they go right until the 22nd? Because that's the other factor.

 

I'd check in again after 24 hours. 

[M37]

 

So set the starting value at ~$4-$5M Preview, ~$25-$30M OW, ~$120-$170M finish

[Adjusting both the OD sales and IM/legs for holiday impacts]

 

\

 

Hit the snooze button until around T-14 and see if numbers are trending higher or lower.

Edited November 20, 2023 by M37

[dallas]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Can't really compare it to The Flash though, since lower initial base = easier to catch up.  IMO, the better comp really is Shazam 2, especially if it follows its pre-sale curve in the first few days.

What does the lower initial base thing mean?

[YachtyLogs]

6 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Those are very likely "blanked out" seats and not available for sale. 

 

What I do, when I am in doubt, is check some rando showing that by all logic should have exactly zero sales, check out that auditorium, and if it is in fact marked as sold, I then make a note on my spreadsheets to manually deduct that seat from all showings.

I updated my stats after double checking, thanks for the tip!

[YachtyLogs]

3 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

This isn't out of the ordinary. Original animation will be a slow starter. Even Elemental isn't a good comparison, because it has a stronger brand for original animation.

 

What's the school schedule in your region? Are kids off by that point, or do they go right until the 22nd? Because that's the other factor.

 

I'd check in again after 24 hours. 

Yeah, I'll be sure to check tomorrow too. This area spans two different counties that may have different school schedules, but I'm pretty sure they typically go to school until the 22nd. 

[dallas]

Also I know people are already laughing at the possibility of a $30M opening for Aquaman (which is fair), but with the Christmas 5x legs getting it to $150M, thats about as good as a $75M opening with 2x legs, which (apart from the bad legs) would be semi-impressive. 

[M37]

4 minutes ago, dallas said:

What does the lower initial base thing mean?

Its easier to grow more from a lower base (smaller first day of sales) than from a larger starting point; going from 50-->500 is more likely than 500-->5000. In the same way that a movie with a $30M preview will (usually) have a lower IM than a movie with a $3M preview

 

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, dallas said:

What does the lower initial base thing mean?

 

Film A starts with 1000 tickets sold

Film B starts with 100 tickets sold.

 

If Film A sells 50 tickets a day for the next couple of days and Film B sells 15 tickets a day over the same time period, Film B gains on Film A percentage wise because it started from a lower amount of sales. 

 

This is an extreme example, but all I'm really saying is that comping a film that had a relatively stronger fan rush versus one that had a much weaker one will lead to problems in direct comping. 

 

Personally I agree with @M37 when he set the initial range at 4m to 5m, though I was giving a bit more room for a Die Hard Fan Rush and penciling in 3.5m to 5m as my initial range, with 3.5m happening if it has really bad reviews. 

[Porthos]

 

 

2 minutes ago, M37 said:

Its easier to grow more from a lower base (smaller first day of sales) than from a larger starting point; going from 50-->500 is more likely than 500-->5000. In the same way that a movie with a $30M preview will (usually) have a lower IM than a movie with a $3M preview

 

 

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

 

Film A starts with 1000 tickets sold

Film B starts with 100 tickets sold.

 

If Film A sells 50 tickets a day for the next couple of days and Film B sells 15 tickets a day over the same time period, Film B gains on Film A percentage wise because it started from a lower amount of sales. 

 

This is an extreme example, but all I'm really saying is that comping a film that had a relatively stronger fan rush versus one that had a much weaker one will lead to problems in direct comping. 

 

Personally I agree with @M37 when he set the initial range at 4m to 5m, though I was giving a bit more room for a Die Hard Fan Rush and penciling in 3.5m to 5m as my initial range, with 3.5m happening if it has really bad reviews. 

 

JINX!!!!!!

Edited November 20, 2023 by Porthos

[Halberstram]

39 minutes ago, Valencia said:

Collapse of the CBM genre was quick and merciless.

 

Ant-Man 3 opened to $100M+ 9 months ago. 
 

And now $55M or less is the norm for a CBM opening.

 

Crazy.

I expected the genre to fall like dominoes, but not this fast. 

[dallas]

4 minutes ago, Halberstram said:

I expected the genre to fall like dominoes, but not this fast. 

Which is why I keep saying that the future of CBMs hinges on the 2025 slate. Namely Superman and Fantastic Four. These are DC and Marvel's last resorts, and if they can't turn those heroes into big names again, then it's truly over for superhero movies not named Batman or Spider-Man. 

[M37]

9 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Personally I agree with @M37 when he set the initial range at 4m to 5m, though I was giving a bit more room for a Die Hard Fan Rush and penciling in 3.5m to 5m as my initial range, with 3.5m happening if it has really bad reviews. 

With the caveat that OD sales aren’t something I’ve really delved into, I do think this start date limits initial sales, with many of those school/work/social media connections that drive sales already broken for holiday. (Also the fact that WB doesn’t seem to having much of a kick-off advertising push).
But should be made back up over the holiday as people have movies on their mind, which is why started at $4M instead of Shazam level 

[dallas]

1 minute ago, M37 said:

With the caveat that OD sales aren’t something I’ve really delved into, I do think this start date limits initial sales, with many of those school/work/social media connections that drive sales already broken for holiday. (Also the fact that WB doesn’t seem to having much of a kick-off advertising push).
But should be made back up over the holiday as people have movies on their mind, which is why started at $4M instead of Shazam level 

Do you expect this movie to be OS heavy like the last one?

[excel1]

Great to see Aquabro looking like such a mega smash, well deserved

[DInky]

If Aquaman also crashes and burns like The Marvels then Madame Web is bound to make negative dollars, right?