The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[MovieMan89]

Just now, Relevation said:

Hey and what do you know Cars 2 has even worse reviews than Wish and yet it has an A- CinemaScore

If you need me to explain why Cars 2 is one of the worst comps imaginable for Wish, well.. I won’t be 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 11/19/2023 at 6:28 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

NAPOLEON

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
164	638	31553	2.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

59

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-2

 

(0.303x) of Mi7 $2.12M

(0.502x) of TMNT $1.93M

Comps AVG: $2.03M

 

(0.824x) of KoTFM $2.14M Previews *ATP not adjusted for discount Tuesday* 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

NAPOLEON

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-1 *Final Update

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
164	690	31553	2.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

52

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-1

 

(0.301x) of Mi7 $2.11M

(0.530x) of TMNT $2.04M

Comps AVG: $2.08M

 

*I'll be working tomorrow morning, so this is the final update*

 

I'll go with $2M-$2.3M

[abracadabra1998]

55 minutes ago, Hilts said:

I like to give 24+ hours before first posting numbers, I know other trackers can give earlier indications but just don't see the volume that early in my particular market to provide any kind of accuracy since it's not as presale heavy.

 

Very early look though is that Migration is dead quiet, not surprising since Wish is out tomorrow, not sure who's bright idea it was to start now, probably won't see much action here for a bit. Aquaman should beat out Blue Beetle (closer than I expected though) but not expecting it to get close to FNAF, Marvels or Hunger Games for example. So something in between which seems to align with the rest of the thread. Full updates tomorrow.

 

Yeah I have decided from here on out (actually did that with the marvels and hunger games but that was more a schedule thing than anything else lol) to give my Day 1 updates at night of local time (any point during 9:00-11 PM local time). Also to make up a bit for the different hour pre-sale starts between movies. So my Aquaman/Migration updates are coming in pretty late today  

[TheFlatLannister]

On 11/19/2023 at 6:29 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

WISH

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
184	1205	34057	3.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

87

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-2

 

(1.170x) of Elemental $2.81M Previews 

(2.363x) of Trolls 3 $3.07M Previews 

AVG Adjusted down 30% for ATP

$2.06M Previews 

 

Not good at all. Still slipping against comps 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

WISH

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-1 *Final Update

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
205	1347	37983	3.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

142

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

21

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-1

 

(1.074x) of Elemental $2.58M Previews 

(2.504x) of Trolls 3 $3.25M Previews 

AVG Adjusted down 30% for ATP

$2.04M Previews 

 

Just really bad growth. I'll go with $2M +/- $0.3M 

[vafrow]

I haven't tracked Wish, but did a quick count and it's at 118 sold across a 10 theatre radius from me.

 

Only thing I have as a comp is Paw Patrol for Thursday previews (which Canada had, but not the US, so no reported numbers), which had 186, with Wish at 63%.

[Spideeey24]

Am I afraid on what would happen to WDAS if this film doesn’t pass Elemental WW total? It could get ugly

[YM!]

Just now, Spideeey24 said:

Am I afraid on what would happen to WDAS if this film doesn’t pass Elemental WW total? It could get ugly

Honestly. Mainly a creative shakeup but as it stands right now, Disney probably will deal with a Peltz take over

[HummingLemon496]

Me waiting for TheFlatLannister's Aquaman 2 forecast

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, Spideeey24 said:

Am I afraid on what would happen to WDAS if this film doesn’t pass Elemental WW total? It could get ugly

Be more afraid if it doesn’t pass 100 WW. That’s what I’m worried about currently. I don’t think people realize how unprecedented this critical reception is for WDAS. Again, unless there is some extreme dramatic divide with audiences here. 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 11/19/2023 at 6:12 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

GODZILLA MINUS ONE

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-11

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
104	254	21183	1.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

20

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-11

 

(0.492x) of Exorcist $1.40M Previews

(0.688x) of The Creator $929k Previews

Comps AVG: $1.16M

 

EA sales *separate from Thursdays previews listed above*

552 seats sold over 20 showings 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

GODZILLA MINUS ONE

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-10

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
148	267	30792	0.87%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

13

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

44

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-10

 

(0.505x) of Exorcist $1.44M Previews

(0.701x) of The Creator $946k Previews

Comps AVG: $1.19M

 

EA sales *separate from Thursdays previews listed above*

596 seats sold over 20 showings 

[Bob Train]

Napoleon previews > Wish previews?

[HummingLemon496]

1 minute ago, Bob Train said:

Napoleon previews > Wish previews?

Tired: Napoleon previews > Wish previews

Wired: Blue Beetle previews > Aquaman 2 previews

Inspired: Migration previews > Aquaman 2 previews

Edited November 21, 2023 by HummingLemon496

[Porthos]

5 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

things to watch out for during my update (if its sold over 2k tickets that’s excellent, if its sold under 1k tickets 🚨🚨)

 

37 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

 

 

500-ish tickets sold, calling it now.

Edited November 21, 2023 by Porthos

[TheFlatLannister]

On 11/19/2023 at 6:08 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

WONKA

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-25

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
193	682	35938	1.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

46

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-25

 

(0.420x) of Indy 5 $3.02M Previews

(0.381x) of TLM $3.93M Previews

Comps AVG: $3.48M

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

WONKA

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-24

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
193	710	35938	2.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

28

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-24

 

(0.425x) of Indy 5 $3.06M Previews

(0.381x) of TLM $3.93M Previews

Comps AVG: $3.50M

[MovieMan89]

If Wonka turns out mid or worse I’m just ready to say let it all burn this holiday. Everything go as low as possible and show Hollywood this lack of quality control is unacceptable. 

[TheFlatLannister]

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

MIGRATION 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-31

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
173	137	32850	0.42%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

First few hours

(0.395x) of ELEMENTAL $950k Previews

Comps AVG: $950k

 

Too early to make any real projections 

[TheFlatLannister]

5 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

things to watch out for during my update (if its sold over 2k tickets that’s excellent, if its sold under 1k tickets 🚨🚨

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

AQUAMAN AND THE LOST KINGDOM

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-31

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
188	467	38172	1.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 7:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

First few hours

 

(1.079x) of Blue Beetle $3.56M Previews

(0.293x) of The Flash $2.84M Previews

(0.288x) of The Marvels $1.90M Previews

Comps AVG: $2.77M

 

This does not feel like a $50M opener to me.

Now, this is bad like really bad but some things to note: It has a longer presales window than Blue beetle and The Flash - Like many have said including @M37 this is going to be pretty backloaded because of the Holidays. 1/4th of The Marvels is nuts regardless 

 

❌ No signs of a breakout 

[TheFlatLannister]

9 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

 

500-ish tickets sold, calling it now.

[HummingLemon496]

2 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

AQUAMAN AND THE LOST KINGDOM

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-31

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
188	467	38172	1.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 7:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

First few hours

 

(1.079x) of Blue Beetle $3.56M Previews

(0.293x) of The Flash $2.84M Previews

(0.288x) of The Marvels $1.90M Previews

Comps AVG: $2.77M

 

This does not feel like a $50M opener to me.

Now, this is bad like really bad but some things to note: It has a longer presales window than Blue beetle and The Flash - Like many have said including @M37 this is going to be pretty backloaded because of the Holidays. 1/4th of The Marvels is nuts regardless 

 

❌ No signs of a breakout 

 

nope

Edited November 21, 2023 by HummingLemon496

[Porthos]

11 minutes ago, Porthos said:

500-ish tickets sold, calling it now.

 

2 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

AQUAMAN AND THE LOST KINGDOM

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-31

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
188	467	38172	1.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 7:00PM EST}

 

1 minute ago, TheFlatLannister said:

 

 

Would you expect any less??? 😉