The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, Grand Cine said:

 

I take comparaison on recent movies at T-0

 

The Marvels : Friday - 103929/1276061 1835583.75 6971 shows +22725
Hunger Games : Friday - 99681/742948 1719398.91 4245 shows +20394
Wonka : Friday - 60643/965255 990758.59 5035 shows

 

Even with the low ATP, At the beginning of next week , he will surpass the T-0 of all the three movies ( he is already ahead of Wonka) , so yeah 20M could happen

Way lower ATP plus matinee tickets. Do not compare with thursday previews which are mostly evening shows vs a holiday full day release. 

[Grand Cine]

58 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Way lower ATP plus matinee tickets. Do not compare with thursday previews which are mostly evening shows vs a holiday full day release. 

I don't compare with previews , it's really friday after the end of previews, so maybe with 30% less like a Tuesday opening ?

[misterpepp]

On 12/11/2023 at 10:20 AM, misterpepp said:

Good ole Sony, doing what they do best. This was pushed to the 15th.

 

Sony... why....

 

This has been pushed back again to Dec 21. The last two times this constantly delaying of pre-sales happened, the films themselves were delayed. I dunno, this is ridiculous.

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

AQUAMAN AND THE LOST KINGDOM

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-7

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
191	1094	38536	2.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

22

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-7

 

(1.148x) of Blue Beetle $3.79M Previews

(0.372x) of The Flash $3.61M Previews

Comps AVG: $3.70M

 

It's still falling fast against Flash comp 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

AQUAMAN AND THE LOST KINGDOM

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-6

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
191	1156	38536	3.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

62

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-6

 

(1.180x) of Blue Beetle $3.89M Previews

(0.370x) of The Flash $3.59M Previews

Comps AVG: $3.74M

 

Pretty good day. I could see a path where this climbs to $4M 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 12/14/2023 at 6:22 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

ANYONE BUT YOU

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-7

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
141	135	25978	0.52%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

19

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-7

 

(0.828x) of Greek Wedding 3 $456k Previews

(0.534x) of Asteroid City $587k Previews

Comps AVG: $522k

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

ANYONE BUT YOU

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-6

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
141	139	25978	0.54%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

4

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-6

 

(0.799x) of Greek Wedding 3 $439k Previews

(0.465x) of Asteroid City $511k Previews

Comps AVG: $475k

[TheFlatLannister]

On 12/14/2023 at 6:18 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

MIGRATION 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-7

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
176	261	33106	0.79%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

15

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-7

 

(0.694x) of Trolls 3 $902k Previews

(0.415x) of Elemental $996k Previews

Comps AVG: $949k

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

MIGRATION 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-6

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
176	271	33106	0.82%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

10

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-6

 

(0.719x) of Trolls 3 $934k Previews

(0.396x) of Elemental $949k Previews

Comps AVG: $942k

[TheFlatLannister]

On 12/14/2023 at 6:14 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

The Color Purple

 

Christmas 

 

T-11

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
172	3533	32294	10.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

62

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS

T-11

 

Comps with Thursday previews 

(1.032x) of Barbie $21.76M 

(1.310x) of TLM $13.50M 

Comps AVG: $17.63M

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

The Color Purple

 

Christmas 

 

T-10

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
172	3989	32294	12.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

456

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

2

 

COMPS

T-10

 

Comps with Thursday previews *Not good comps because comping Thursday previews with full day Holiday of Box office* 

(1.063x) of Barbie $22.43M 

(1.424x) of TLM $14.66M 

Comps AVG: $18.55M

 

This is nuts lol 

Edited December 15, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[vale9001]

2 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

Apparently that Argylle awareness number is not reflective of my theaters. I've gotten the trailer at every movie without fail since September. Even Anatomy of a Fall!

 

Maybe people forgets about It soon After? 🤣

[charlie Jatinder]

7 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Color Purple MTC1

12/25 - 121960/356419 1542881.18 2516 shows

12/26 - 31597/331992 401220.33 2320 shows

 

Show count is growing already for Christmas day. Its going to be a big day considering holdovers will be very big as well and Ferrari will also have a good OD. 

34% occupancy is INSANITY.

[Porthos]

What do we think of using Discount Tuesday previews (for those of us that have them) for something somewhat closer to The Color Purple's OD?

 

Most DT tickets should be less than early bird/matinee, but not all chains participate with discounted tickets for Tuesday openers.  Maybe the errors would cross themselves out?  On the other hand, the sheer number of matinee tickets for TCP might overwhelm that in the other direction.

 

But I have to think it's better than using a standard Thr/Wed/whatever opener.

 

Any thoughts on this?  If only as a start to some sort of a guidleline.

 

(also have Mario Bros, but that'll be more skewed to kids + I don't think any of the current trackers tracked that film)

((though if someone wanted to, they could probably figure out an ad-hoc adjustment by comparing SMB numbers to a similar genre film by those trackers))

((("not it", BTW)))

Edited December 16, 2023 by Porthos

[HummingLemon496]

33 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

34% occupancy is INSANITY.

This movie deserves it! 

[ThomasNicole]

12 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

This movie deserves it! 

Did you watch it? They’re doing so many screenings but still no date for embargo, i think it’ll be bad received by critics, hopefully audiences won’t care 

[HummingLemon496]

4 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Did you watch it? They’re doing so many screenings but still no date for embargo, i think it’ll be bad received by critics, hopefully audiences won’t care 

No

[Relevation]

6 minutes ago, Porthos said:

(also have Mario Bros, but that'll be more skewed to kids + I don't think any of the current trackers tracked that film)

((though if someone wanted to, they could probably figure out an ad-hoc adjustment by comparing SMB numbers to a similar genre film by those trackers))

((("not it", BTW)))

 

Well I found T-0 Sat at MTC-1 for Mario

Mario MTC1 Sat - 402506/1695402 5677818.34 10284 shows

Kids movie on Saturday so the matinee percentage should be much closer to what TCP is doing, plus very low ATP that should in theory make it a good comp

 

Also pulled out T-1 Fri for PAW Patrol since it also seems to tick all the boxes and is also a weekday release with no previews like TCP

MTC1 Friday(T-1)

Paw Patrol - 52210/465001 652465.64 3134 shows 

 

Obviously TCP hasn't hit Mario T-0 levels yet, nor does it even have the capacity to get there right now, but over 100K tickets sold this far out is banaaaanas

 

Obviously skewed T-10 to T-0 comps that can only mathematically go up - Mario ($17.27M), PAW Patrol ($15.95M)

 

Considering this is a T-10 to T-0 comp and TCP isn't gonna be like Taylor Swift with zero late sales, don't really see any reason this goes under $20M for Christmas Day and honestly it's looking more like a $25-30M Xmas gross with how big volume and how good pace is right now

 

 

[joselowe]

1 hour ago, ThomasNicole said:

Did you watch it? They’re doing so many screenings but still no date for embargo, i think it’ll be bad received by critics, hopefully audiences won’t care 

It's been getting raves across the board from people who have seen it. Even though people on here dislike her, Grace Randolph named it the 2nd best movie of 2023 after Barbie.

[MovieMan89]

I can see a 70-75% or so RT reception. Acting will be lauded, movie will probably be called derivative by most critics. Feels a lot like Dreamgirls and Les Mis in that sense. Won’t matter for audience reception. 

[PrinceRico]

1 hour ago, ThomasNicole said:

Did you watch it? They’re doing so many screenings but still no date for embargo, i think it’ll be bad received by critics, hopefully audiences won’t care 

Embargo drops next Tuesday. 1 week before the film is released.

[abracadabra1998]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

What do we think of using Discount Tuesday previews (for those of us that have them) for something somewhat closer to The Color Purple's OD?

 

Most DT tickets should be less than early bird/matinee, but not all chains participate with discounted tickets for Tuesday openers.  Maybe the errors would cross themselves out?  On the other hand, the sheer number of matinee tickets for TCP might overwhelm that in the other direction.

 

But I have to think it's better than using a standard Thr/Wed/whatever opener.

 

Any thoughts on this?  If only as a start to some sort of a guidleline.

 

(also have Mario Bros, but that'll be more skewed to kids + I don't think any of the current trackers tracked that film)

((though if someone wanted to, they could probably figure out an ad-hoc adjustment by comparing SMB numbers to a similar genre film by those trackers))

((("not it", BTW)))

I can see that with Wish, but off the top of my head the other Tuesday openers are Napoleon and MI7 and those had a lot of PLFs

[abracadabra1998]

1 hour ago, Relevation said:

 

Well I found T-0 Sat at MTC-1 for Mario

Mario MTC1 Sat - 402506/1695402 5677818.34 10284 shows

Kids movie on Saturday so the matinee percentage should be much closer to what TCP is doing, plus very low ATP that should in theory make it a good comp

 

Also pulled out T-1 Fri for PAW Patrol since it also seems to tick all the boxes and is also a weekday release with no previews like TCP

MTC1 Friday(T-1)

Paw Patrol - 52210/465001 652465.64 3134 shows 

 

Obviously TCP hasn't hit Mario T-0 levels yet, nor does it even have the capacity to get there right now, but over 100K tickets sold this far out is banaaaanas

 

Obviously skewed T-10 to T-0 comps that can only mathematically go up - Mario ($17.27M), PAW Patrol ($15.95M)

 

Considering this is a T-10 to T-0 comp and TCP isn't gonna be like Taylor Swift with zero late sales, don't really see any reason this goes under $20M for Christmas Day and honestly it's looking more like a $25-30M Xmas gross with how big volume and how good pace is right now

 

 

Huh I can’t believe I overlooked Paw Patrol, that might be a good one (Opening Day versus previews, no PLFs, ton of kids tickets which makes up for less matinee sessions)

[Bob Train]

Ferrari is dropping on Christmas Day, but seems to have Sunday night previews on Christmas Eve. Seems like an odd choice, is there any other movie that has done this. Also gives it an 8-day long opening frame (Sun-Sun).

 

Anyways, it seems to have more buzz and interest among adults than Neon's other titles so I could see it putting up decent numbers.