The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[abracadabra1998]

1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:

I tried Napoleon yesterday and it spit out something like ~$30m

 

i tried MI7 and TMNT and they both spit out ~$20m 

Forgot about TMNT, that’s a good one too, I’ll add that comp to my update tomorrow

[PrinceRico]

Seriously, what is the ceiling for the Color purple opening day? Considering this would likely have a great word of mouth and walk ups is it possible to make 60+ million in its first week alone.

[dallas]

38 minutes ago, PrinceRico said:

Seriously, what is the ceiling for the Color purple opening day? Considering this would likely have a great word of mouth and walk ups is it possible to make 60+ million in its first week alone.

It's going to be huge. According to my Christmas Day data, TCP has sold more than 3x the combined sales of Aquaman, Wonka, and Migration. It's absolute insanity. 

[M37]

54 minutes ago, PrinceRico said:

Seriously, what is the ceiling for the Color purple opening day? Considering this would likely have a great word of mouth and walk ups is it possible to make 60+ million in its first week alone.

IMO, somewhere just above $20M, in large part because it won't have the capacity to push much higher.  For a reference point, Barbie's opening Sunday - matinee heavy and with little PLF help - made $43.7M, but from over 1.13 million seats allocated across MTC1 (which included a good number of early morning showings, which theaters don't usually run on Christmas Day).

 

Currently TCP has only 350K seats for MTC1, and while that number will go up as final schedules are made, I'm not sure it gets to half Barbie's total given the number of releases in the market. So if TCP were to match the same ridiculous 60% of seats sold for the day, that would put the ceiling around $22M (presuming similar ATP). On that same Sunday, Oppy was ~400K sold out of ~700K seats at MTC1 for $23.2M (with a LOT of PLF boosting ATP). I also would expect TCP to be more city heavy than either of those films, where capacity is going to run short first, without the depth across middle and lower tier markets to pick up the slack

 

As for the second part, Les Miserables, Into the Woods and Unbroken all topped $60M after just 7 days (through NY Eve) following a $15M+ Xmas opening day, so a $60M+ first week for TCP seems like a good bet. But that should also be around half of its expected final total

[MovieMan89]

TCP is feeling a lot like a mid 20s or so Xmas Day opener at this point, which interestingly would be right in line with Les Mis adjusted. That would be wildly impressive since the hype for Les Mis that year was huge all year leading up and the play is quite a bit more successful. TCP felt like it  came outta nowhere in pre sales. 

Edited December 16, 2023 by MovieMan89

[MovieMan89]

Woah, just realized the 80s movie adjusts to around 335m. Yeah, most of us were definitely sleeping way too much on TCP for a long time 

[PrinceRico]

11 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Woah, just realized the 80s movie adjusts to around 335m. Yeah, most of us were definitely sleeping way too much on TCP for a long time 

Yeah the 80s version made 95 million. This movie has a huge following 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 12/15/2023 at 6:25 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

AQUAMAN AND THE LOST KINGDOM

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-6

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
191	1156	38536	3.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

62

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-6

 

(1.180x) of Blue Beetle $3.89M Previews

(0.370x) of The Flash $3.59M Previews

Comps AVG: $3.74M

 

Pretty good day. I could see a path where this climbs to $4M 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

AQUAMAN AND THE LOST KINGDOM

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-5

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
191	1216	38536	3.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

60

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-5

 

(1.182x) of Blue Beetle $3.90M Previews

(0.376x) of The Flash $3.65M Previews

Comps AVG: $3.78M

[TheFlatLannister]

On 12/15/2023 at 6:31 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

ANYONE BUT YOU

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-6

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
141	139	25978	0.54%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

4

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-6

 

(0.799x) of Greek Wedding 3 $439k Previews

(0.465x) of Asteroid City $511k Previews

Comps AVG: $475k

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

ANYONE BUT YOU

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-5

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
141	162	25978	0.62%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

23

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-5

 

(0.857x) of Greek Wedding 3 $471k Previews

(0.508x) of Asteroid City $559k Previews

Comps AVG: $515k

 

There seems to be Tuesday and Wednesday EA for this (Exclusively MTC1 it seems)

Edited December 17, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

MIGRATION 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-6

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
176	271	33106	0.82%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

10

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-6

 

(0.719x) of Trolls 3 $934k Previews

(0.396x) of Elemental $949k Previews

Comps AVG: $942k

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

MIGRATION 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-5

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
176	275	33106	0.83%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

4

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-5

 

(0.676x) of Trolls 3 $878k Previews

(0.378x) of Elemental $907k Previews

Comps AVG: $893k

 

Yeah, it looks dead for OW...Just no signs of life

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

The Color Purple

 

Christmas 

 

T-10

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
172	3989	32294	12.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

456

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

2

 

COMPS

T-10

 

Comps with Thursday previews *Not good comps because comping Thursday previews with full day Holiday of Box office* 

(1.063x) of Barbie $22.43M 

(1.424x) of TLM $14.66M 

Comps AVG: $18.55M

 

This is nuts lol 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

The Color Purple

 

Christmas 

 

T-9

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
172	4199	32294	13.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

210

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

2

 

COMPS

T-9

 

Comps with Thursday-Tuesday previews *Not good comps because Thursday/Tuesday previews compared to full day Holiday of Box office* 

(1.063x) of TMNT $22.61M 

(1.434x) of TLM $14.77M 

Comps AVG: $18.69M

 

Kind of experimenting with comps here 

Edited December 16, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

TCP is feeling a lot like a mid 20s or so Xmas Day opener at this point, which interestingly would be right in line with Les Mis adjusted. That would be wildly impressive since the hype for Les Mis that year was huge all year leading up and the play is quite a bit more successful. TCP felt like it  came outta nowhere in pre sales. 

 

I'd really be concerned about the sheer level of matinee sales at this point.  One of the reasons I looked at Sacto numbers last night was to see the level of matinee sales and it is literally at *50 percent of ALL sales*!

 

That's a lot of discounted tickets in the mix.

 

On the edges, it's also Senior Day for some chains (Cinemark at least, for example) and this is a film which might skew a bit toward seniors at least a little.  Especially seniors with fond memories of the 1985 The Color Purple.

 

I don't know if @abracadabra1998 or @TheFlatLannister can easily extract matinee sale info from their sets or not, but it would be interesting to see if it is nearly in the same league as Sacramento. Perhaps @keysersoze123 might be able to tweak their scraper to flag matinee info as well.

 

Also, while it is increasing, the three way split of PLF screens between Aquaman 2, Wonka, and The Color Purple is also a factor.

 

All of the above is to say it's gonna need a shit-ton of ticket sales to get mid-20s.  Low 20s seems possible if not plausible if there is a lot of screen expansion (as there will probably be as theater owners usually aren't dummies — but getting out of contracts/shuffling poor performers to smaller screens is still a logistical hurdle).  I believe @M37 has talked about seeing low-20s as a possibility and I'd like to hear his thoughts on what would need to happen for mid-20s, or if there simply isn't enough screens for it with matinee pricing + other films in the mix.  Not with out it really exploding (which it might!).

Edited December 17, 2023 by Porthos

[HummingLemon496]

11 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

MIGRATION 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-5

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
176	275	33106	0.83%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

4

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-5

 

(0.676x) of Trolls 3 $878k Previews

(0.378x) of Elemental $907k Previews

Comps AVG: $893k

 

Yeah, it looks dead for OW...Just no signs of life

Could this go <$10M opening or something? This is horrendous

[Krissykins]

Color Purple could get a review bump too. Whenever the embargo finally lifts. 

[ringedmortality]

40 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Color Purple could get a review bump too. Whenever the embargo finally lifts. 

 

[keysersoze123]

On 12/15/2023 at 11:03 AM, keysersoze123 said:

Color Purple MTC1

12/25 - 121960/356419 1542881.18 2516 shows

12/26 - 31597/331992 401220.33 2320 shows

 

Show count is growing already for Christmas day. Its going to be a big day considering holdovers will be very big as well and Ferrari will also have a good OD. 

Color Purple MTC1

12/25 - 133055/364970 1682211.55 2590 shows

12/26 - 34602/337898 439804.48 2367 shows

 

Motoring on. Could be at 250K+ by end of next Sunday before walkups :-)

[PrinceRico]

46 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Color Purple could get a review bump too. Whenever the embargo finally lifts. 

Lifts in two days

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

 

I'd really be concerned about the sheer level of matinee sales at this point.  One of the reasons I looked at Sacto numbers last night was to see the level of matinee sales and it is literally at *50 percent of ALL sales*!

 

That's a lot of discounted tickets in the mix.

 

On the edges, it's also Senior Day for some chains (Cinemark at least, for example) and this is a film which might skew a bit toward seniors at least a little.  Especially seniors with fond memories of the 1985 The Color Purple.

 

I don't know if @abracadabra1998 or @TheFlatLannister can easily extract matinee sale info from their sets or not, but it would be interesting to see if it is nearly in the same league as Sacramento. Perhaps @keysersoze123 might be able to tweak their scraper to flag matinee info as well.

 

Also, while it is increasing, the three way split of PLF screens between Aquaman 2, Wonka, and The Color Purple is also a factor.

 

All of the above is to say it's gonna need a shit-ton of ticket sales to get mid-20s.  Low 20s seems possible if not plausible if there is a lot of screen expansion (as there will probably be as theater owners usually aren't dummies — but getting out of contracts/shuffling poor performers to smaller screens is still a logistical hurdle).  I believe @M37 has talked about seeing low-20s as a possibility and I'd like to hear his thoughts on what would need to happen for mid-20s, or if there simply isn't enough screens for it with matinee pricing + other films in the mix.  Not with out it really exploding (which it might!).

Just by eyeballing some showings (no data collected) matinee sales are infact outpacing night showings. 7pm showings are doing ok, but the 9-10pm showings are pretty much empty 

[Speedorito]

9 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

 

I guess now that TCP still isn’t slowing down, people are clinging onto the hope that it’ll get poor reviews 🙄

[abracadabra1998]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

 

I'd really be concerned about the sheer level of matinee sales at this point.  One of the reasons I looked at Sacto numbers last night was to see the level of matinee sales and it is literally at *50 percent of ALL sales*!

 

That's a lot of discounted tickets in the mix.

 

On the edges, it's also Senior Day for some chains (Cinemark at least, for example) and this is a film which might skew a bit toward seniors at least a little.  Especially seniors with fond memories of the 1985 The Color Purple.

 

I don't know if @abracadabra1998 or @TheFlatLannister can easily extract matinee sale info from their sets or not, but it would be interesting to see if it is nearly in the same league as Sacramento. Perhaps @keysersoze123 might be able to tweak their scraper to flag matinee info as well.

 

Also, while it is increasing, the three way split of PLF screens between Aquaman 2, Wonka, and The Color Purple is also a factor.

 

All of the above is to say it's gonna need a shit-ton of ticket sales to get mid-20s.  Low 20s seems possible if not plausible if there is a lot of screen expansion (as there will probably be as theater owners usually aren't dummies — but getting out of contracts/shuffling poor performers to smaller screens is still a logistical hurdle).  I believe @M37 has talked about seeing low-20s as a possibility and I'd like to hear his thoughts on what would need to happen for mid-20s, or if there simply isn't enough screens for it with matinee pricing + other films in the mix.  Not with out it really exploding (which it might!).

I’m gonna try to dive into ATP tomorrow, but yeah at the very least I’ll be able to give some percentages for matinee vs evening tickets. I definitely agree with you, it’ll be a huge %