The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[vafrow]

Madame Web, western GTA (southern Ontario), Opening Day, T-16 (D1)

 

Previews

Total Sales: 18

New Sales: na

Growth: na

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 13

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 1.4

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 0/1

Late Afternoon: 2/2

Early Evening: 12/6

Late Evening: 4/4

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 10/5

IMAX: 8/7

VIP: 0/1

 

D1 Comps

0.818x Aquaman 2 for $3.7M

0.383 HG:BoSS for $2.2M

 

Given expectations and lack of any pre-existing knowledge of the character or linkage to any property anyone cares about, it's not too bad.

Edited January 30 by vafrow

[SpiderByte]

15 hours ago, iEnri said:

If Madame Web somehow makes over 30M opening weekend, dune is locked to make over 75M because it has way more hype than that mess

Those two things are completely unrelated.

[emoviefan]

2 hours ago, SpiderByte said:

Those two things are completely unrelated.

The only thing these two  movies have in common are they star actress's from Euphoria. 

[fede75]

5 hours ago, Menor the Destroyer said:

"Clearly" wrong? Aquaman 2 had an awful first day, having slightly more D1 presales with the benefit of a Valentine's Day opening isn't much of an accomplishment.

i said clearly wrong on underperformance. Madame web is not underperforming right now

[TwoMisfits]

So, before you all go whole hog for Madame Web...please check MTC 2...for me:).

 

At my locals (which have booked both Web and Marley equally - 2 screens at PLF, 1 screen at not - the 1 screen is REALLY bad for a super)...

 

PLF 14

Web - 7 tickets sold for Valentine's Day (all XD)

Marley - 29 tickets sold for Valentine's Day (23 XD, 4 reg)

 

Non PLF 12

Web - 4 tickets sold

Marley - 17 tickets sold

 

I'm not a ticket by day tracker, but I did think a look at the 2 competing movies, one more prone to presales b/c it's a super, might be helpful...

[keysersoze123]

Valentine's day BO MTC1

Madame Web - 7655/520989 130090.81 2461 shows

Bob Marley - 8817/276230 130461.53 1734 shows

 

Neither number is good. But MW is just for 1 day and I am not sure how long Marley has been on sale. I expect it to be even more frontloaded than Madame Web looking at BO runs of Renaissance and Color Purple. Let me look beyond OD later after few days of PS for MW to see if that holds true. My bet is for MW to win the weekend. 

[leoh]

Update on Madame Web in AMC theaters, NY:

 

Given the unexpected high amount of tickets sold for Madame Web, some NY AMC theaters started giving it new screenings. AMC Empire went even further and attributed an entire new hall to Madame Web, now Madame Web will also be screened at PRIME PERCEIVE THE POWER hall, and even more surprisingly tickets for this new hall is selling faster than expected.

[leoh]

23 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Valentine's day BO MTC1

Madame Web - 7655/520989 130090.81 2461 shows

Bob Marley - 8817/276230 130461.53 1734 shows

 

Neither number is good. But MW is just for 1 day and I am not sure how long Marley has been on sale. I expect it to be even more frontloaded than Madame Web looking at BO runs of Renaissance and Color Purple. Let me look beyond OD later after few days of PS for MW to see if that holds true. My bet is for MW to win the weekend. 

Exactly. Madame Web has tickets on sale for 24 hours now, the other one started selling 8 days ago.
 

Tbh at this point there is not much doubt on who will win the opening weekend (and with a considerable advantage, considering it’ll keep selling well as now). I am really surprise ngl.

Edited January 30 by leoh

[keysersoze123]

Overall MTC1 Madame Web did not beat Aquabro 2. That said that is not the target for this movie. 6 day 30m OW would be great and I was expecting it to bomb like sub 20m over 6 days. Still could go either way. 1 day is not enough to make a call. The presales are not that good to say its breaking out or anything. 

[Kon]

1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

So, before you all go whole hog for Madame Web...please check MTC 2...for me:).

 

At my locals (which have booked both Web and Marley equally - 2 screens at PLF, 1 screen at not - the 1 screen is REALLY bad for a super)...

 

PLF 14

Web - 7 tickets sold for Valentine's Day (all XD)

Marley - 29 tickets sold for Valentine's Day (23 XD, 4 reg)

 

Non PLF 12

Web - 4 tickets sold

Marley - 17 tickets sold

 

I'm not a ticket by day tracker, but I did think a look at the 2 competing movies, one more prone to presales b/c it's a super, might be helpful...

 

As it was mentioned, Marley pre-sales started a week ago, while Madam Web pre-sales started 24 hours ago. So, this comparison wouldn't be fair.

[TwoMisfits]

26 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Overall MTC1 Madame Web did not beat Aquabro 2. That said that is not the target for this movie. 6 day 30m OW would be great and I was expecting it to bomb like sub 20m over 6 days. Still could go either way. 1 day is not enough to make a call. The presales are not that good to say its breaking out or anything. 

 

Damn, 6 day under $20M WITH 2/14 for a super was really your starting point?  Okay, now I see why we're talking past each other...my starting point was never THAT low, for reasons I've mentioned before...

 

I wouldn't call 6 day $30M great...but I would call it what I expected before presales...total BO DOM about $60-$75M...

 

EDIT TO ADD: I'm seeing $80M as a Madame Web production budget - can that really be right?  I mean, it doesn't have expensive stars and it looks like a CW show, so maybe it is right? 

Edited January 30 by TwoMisfits

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Damn, 6 day under $20M WITH 2/14 for a super was really your starting point?  Okay, now I see why we're talking past each other...my starting point was never THAT low, for reasons I've mentioned before...

 

I wouldn't call 6 day $30M great...but I would call it what I expected before presales...total BO DOM about $60-$75M...

This movie has been screaming epic bomb to me. Trailer is mediocre and I am expecting product to be the same. I think only reason it has sold some tickets could be the Sidney factor. They made a mistake making her look so plain in this movie. 

 

MTC2 I just looked at show counts and they look very low for both. I am not able to consistently get data from there and I am not expecting great early PS for either movie. Only mega blockbusters tend to have strong early presales. Last 2 movies which had good PS at MTC2 were Freddy's and Eras. 

[leoh]

33 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Damn, 6 day under $20M WITH 2/14 for a super was really your starting point?  Okay, now I see why we're talking past each other...my starting point was never THAT low, for reasons I've mentioned before...

 

I wouldn't call 6 day $30M great...but I would call it what I expected before presales...total BO DOM about $60-$75M...

 

EDIT TO ADD: I'm seeing $80M as a Madame Web production budget - can that really be right?  I mean, it doesn't have expensive stars and it looks like a CW show, so maybe it is right? 

This depends on WoM, Valentine’s Day for Madame Web will probably be better than anyone expected, but to keep doing well it has to have a good WoM. 
 

And it’s not Rotten Tomatoes critic score. It’s all about audience embracing or not a movie. For example The Marvels OW weekend was 46 M (it ended up with  84M) Aquaman extended OW was 38 million, and now it’s crossing 120 million domestically. The Marvels got 60% on RT and Aquaman only 35%.

Edited January 30 by leoh

[JustWatching]

Ok I’ll join the pile-on. At my local Cinemark, MW is drawing a complete blank. 3 shows on the 14th, 4 on Friday and 5 on Saturday, all in their biggest barn, and not a single ticket sold.

 

The Emagine up the road is a tiny bit better in that it has sold 2, count ‘em, 2 tickets (and for a PLF show at that) on the 14th. The 8 other shows haven’t sold anything tho.

[Maggie]

Damn, these latest posts regarding MW are sad. I hoped for a breakout. I guess Deadline was right. 25-30M for six days

[leoh]

38 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Damn, these latest posts regarding MW are sad. I hoped for a breakout. I guess Deadline was right. 25-30M for six days

In NY and California AMC theaters Madame Web is doing better than I thought, and it’s increasing sales today and gaining new screenings (in AMC NY theaters). AMC Empire has just given it an additional hall, the PRIME PERCEIVE THE POWER hall.

 

It is selling better than Aquaman, Morbius and Blue Beetle (in NY AMC theaters). It seems it’s going to have a good opening day. It’ll very likely have a good VDay, therefore if it gets a good WoM it can make a 40M+ OW, but if it doesn’t it can go way lower.

Edited January 30 by leoh

[TwoMisfits]

Posting my locals' sets for the weekend, so you can see what holdovers might get their lights dimmed this weekend...one screen is held (maybe more foreign)...

 

MTC 2 

PLF 14

NEW 

Argylle - 2 screens (1 PLF, 1 Reg) - look, this is b/c of the current market weakness, not b/c presales deserve it

Chosen Episodes 1-3 - 2 screens (1 PLF - yes, it got the PLF - did I mention market and Argylle weakness - 1 Reg)

Ambajipeta Marriage Band - .5 screen - not a breakout foreign

The Jungle Bunch: Operation Meltdown - .5 screen - not a breakout kid movie

 

RETURNING

 

Mean Girls - 1 screen

Beekeeper - 1 screen

Migration - 1 screen

Anyone But You - 1 screen

The Boys in the Boat - 1 screen

Wonka (still the oldest holdover) - 1 screen

American Fiction - .4 screen (look for a drop next week)

ISS - 1 showing -2 screen - definite drop next week

Fighter - 1 screen

Hanu Man - .4 screen

 

GONE

Aquaman, Night Swim, Godzilla (as planned - both color and not, b/c they had both this week), Past Lives, Holdovers/Barbie return

 

Edited January 30 by TwoMisfits

[TwoMisfits]

Non PLF 12

 

NEW

Argylle - 2 screens

The Chosen - 1 screen

Ambajipeta Marriage Band - 1 screen

2 other foreigns - 1 showing each

 

RETURNING

Mean Girls - 1 screen

Beekeeper - 1 screen

Migration - 1 screen

Anyone But You - 1 screen

Wonka - 1 screen

Fighter - 1 screen

Aquaman - .5 screen (probably last week)

American Fiction - 1 showing - .25 screen (definitely last week)

Night Swim - 1 showing - .25 screen (definitely last week)

3 foreigns - 1 showing each for the last availability

 

DROPPED

Poor Things, Godzilla Minus Color (as planned), Iron Claw, foreign films

 

[keysersoze123]

4 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Valentine's day BO MTC1

Madame Web - 7655/520989 130090.81 2461 shows

Bob Marley - 8817/276230 130461.53 1734 shows

 

Neither number is good. But MW is just for 1 day and I am not sure how long Marley has been on sale. I expect it to be even more frontloaded than Madame Web looking at BO runs of Renaissance and Color Purple. Let me look beyond OD later after few days of PS for MW to see if that holds true. My bet is for MW to win the weekend. 

MTC1 Friday(2/16)

Madame Web - 4416/575119 72280.38 2673 shows

Bob Marley - 2599/305767 37315.71 1850 shows

 

Marley number is atrocious if its on sale for a week. MW is also bad but I still expect it to win the weekend but neither movie look like a breakout to me. 

[filmlover]

Bob Marley's sales are actually pretty strong for the opening Valentine's Day but it hasn't moved much beyond that near me, even for the extended holiday weekend. So I would definitely be cautious about this potentially being another Color Purple.