The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[TJ327]

 

 

 

 

Jatinder (charlie)

 

@meJat32

 

 

~$30M OS SAT for #Dune2. $73M Cume. Expecting $98M-ish weekend. Best in Europe/ANZ, rest okay. UK - $8.1M FR ~ $7.5M DE - $7M KOR - $5.5M Nordics - $5.1M AUS - $4.4M IT - $3.2M

https://x.com/meJat32/status/1764305146207437209?s=20

 

YOOOOOOO

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 3/2/2024 at 9:16 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Kung Fu Panda 4	T-5	Jax	5	39	19	85	4,580	1.86%
		Phx	6	32	16	133	5,003	2.66%
		Ral	8	44	10	140	5,047	2.77%
	Total		19	115	45	358	14,630	2.45%

 

T-5 comps

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - .616x (1.91m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - .4x (2.5m)

 - TMNT (Total) - .348x (1.95m)

 - Lightyear (Total) - .592x (3.25m)

 - Elemental - 1.52x (3.64m)

 - Super Pets - 2.98x (6.56m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Kung Fu Panda 4	T-4	Jax	5	39	10	95	4,580	2.07%
		Phx	6	32	22	155	5,003	3.10%
		Ral	8	44	16	156	5,047	3.09%
	Total		19	115	48	406	14,630	2.78%

 

T-4 comps

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - .627x (1.94m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - .4x (2.49m)

 - TMNT (Total) - .332x (1.86m)

 - Lightyear (Total) - missed

 - Elemental - 1.58x (3.79m)

 - Super Pets - 3.08x (6.77m)

 

Growth model forecast - 3.27m

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 3/2/2024 at 9:18 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Ghostbusters: FE	T-19	Jax	5	56	5	68	8,681	0.78%
		Phx	6	50	5	73	8,790	0.83%
		Ral	8	36	14	89	5,244	1.70%
	Total		19	142	24	230	22,715	1.01%

 

T-19 comps

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - 1.15x (3.57m)

 - Shazam 2 - .764x (2.6m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.211x (4.96m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Ghostbusters: FE	T-18	Jax	5	56	8	76	8,681	0.88%
		Phx	6	50	13	86	8,790	0.98%
		Ral	8	36	3	92	5,244	1.75%
	Total		19	142	24	254	22,715	1.12%

 

T-18 comps

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - 1.215x (3.77m)

 - Shazam 2 - missed

 - Suicide Squad - 1.227x (5.03m)

[leoh]

 

‘DUNE 2’ opens with $178.5M worldwide.

this is ~50% more than the worldwide opening of the first film.

 

The first movie release got 405M* ww, so Dune 2 can possibly make now around 650M ww.

 

 

 

 

*not counting 2024 rerelease in the Uk and other international markets of course

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 3 by leoh

[Old Spice]

Here's a little Dune update from my non-PLF theater in Salt Lake.

 

Saturday 1:20 PM. 562 tix sold for remaining screenings.

 

Sunday 1:20 PM. 449 tix sold for remaining screenings.

 

20% drop as of now. May make up some ground this afternoon as yesterday was already at 80% of capacity when I did the count. Either way, great hold.

[joselowe]

Anyone have any predictions for Challengers or is it too early? So far lots of buzz for the trailer.

 

[abracadabra1998]

On 2/29/2024 at 9:02 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Kung Fu Panda 4 (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	72	99	236	10441	2.26

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		11	5	4.66
MTC1:		140	54	59.32
Marcus:		25	14	10.59
Alamo:		13	6	5.51
Other chains:		58	25	24.58

 

Comps:

0.79x Wonka: $2.76 Million

1.22x Wish (TUE): $2.2 Million

0.98x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $3.05 Million

3.23x Migration: $4.85 Million

2.57x Trolls (THU): $3.33 Million

 

Average: $3.24 Million

 

Really amazing jump here, was not expecting that! Average now over 3 million and that's with Wish, a Tuesday release with lower ATP, bringing it down.

 

In the midst of a lot of non-tracking talk in this thread today (and weirdly a loooooot of negativity), just wanted to leave a special thanks to all the trackers that are able to give updates at T-0, T-1 hour, and updates of walk-ups. Y'all rock! Just invaluable info, and I know it must be a ton of work. Wish I could be of further help but alas, we all do what we can. But seriously, y'all are the best ❤️ 

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Kung Fu Panda 4 (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	72	106	342	10450	3.27

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		23	12	6.73
MTC1:		204	64	59.65
Marcus:		40	15	11.7
Alamo:		19	6	5.56
Other chains:		79	21	23.1

 

Comps:

0.93x Wonka: $3.27 Million

1.32x Wish (TUE): $2.37 Million

1.11x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $3.43 Million

2.76x Migration: $4.14 Million

2.67x Trolls (THU): $3.47 Million

 

Average: $3.34 Million

 

Keeps doing pretty well here, went up against every comp save for Migration, which makes sense as the only non-Disney original IP here. We'll see about the final week, as the pre-sale buying audience shifts from fans of the franchise to families. Keen to see if this grabs their interest or not.

[abracadabra1998]

On 2/29/2024 at 9:07 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Imaginary (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 16 theaters	25	17	37	2180	1.7

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		29	11	78.38
Marcus:		4	2	10.81
Alamo:		2	2	5.41
Other chains:		2	2	5.41

 

Comps:*

1.28x ISS: Never reported, 1.28x of total FRI number is ~1.61 Million)

0.61x Thanksgiving: $605k

0.25x Exorcist Believer: $710k

 

Average (sans I.S.S): $660k

 

*At low numbers like these, there is high degree of variance. Take comps with a big grain of salt

 

I'll have better comps for this (Demeter, Talk To Me) at T-4, on Sunday. Ghostbusters Day 1 update in 1 hour or so

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Imaginary (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	26	21	58	2356	2.46

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		40	11	68.97
Marcus:		6	2	10.34
Alamo:		5	3	8.62
Other chains:		7	5	12.07

 

Comps:

0.62x Thanksgiving: $615k

0.3x Exorcist Believer: $850k

0.97x Last Voyage of the Demeter: $725k

0.54x Talk To Me (w/ EA): $670k

 

Average: $715k

 

I'll be paying closest attention to the Demeter comp moving forward.

 

Cabrini (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 15 theaters	19	249	249	1641	15.17

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		76	76	30.52
Marcus:		48	48	19.28
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		125	125	50.2

 

Comps:

1.46x After Death: $585k

0.47x Chosen S4 Eps 1-3: $670k

1.19x Chosen S4 Eps 4-6: $925k

1.4x Chosen S4 Eps 7-8: $1.06 Million

 

Average: $810k

[MightyDargon]

If Godzilla x Kong spikes, when will we be able to tell?

[von Kenni]

Dune weekend actuals and Sunday estimates based on MTC1

 

1) I compared reported Sat actuals to MTC1 estimate and found out that MTC1 numbers need to be adjusted 1.4% upward.

 

2) Using the adjustment we can deduct the true Friday to be $20.79M and Previews+EA $11.56M (they rounded it to $12M).

 

3) Based on ATP change from Dune 2 Sat previews to actuals I estimated Sunday ATP to be 1.5% lower than Saturday if the relative walkups pace is the same. If it is lower, I adjusted the ATP slightly upward and likewise downward if it is higher.

 

4) Relative walkups pace compared to Dune 2 Saturday.

 

5) OW estimates paced on different walkups paces (Sunday estimates above). The reported $20.3M Sunday would need worse walkups than on Friday. I see midpoint around 90%+ walkups pace and highly likely (80% confidence level) that we're looking at

 

$83-85M OW and $84M with $22.8M Sunday -21% drop as the midpoint

 

$83M OW would mean -24.5% Sun drop

$85M OW -17.6% drop

 

[vafrow]

2 hours ago, joselowe said:

Anyone have any predictions for Challengers or is it too early? So far lots of buzz for the trailer.

 

 

The only data that might be available on it is Quorum awareness data, but I can't recall if they've shown anything on it yet. But, it's going to be tough to get a read on it until the date is closer. I doubt we see much in the way of an advance sales window either.

[TheFlatLannister]

On 3/2/2024 at 6:12 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

Ghostbusters

 

Thursday 

 

T-18

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
470	2126	95104	2.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

29

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-18

 

(0.461x) of Dune 2 $4.26M  

 

Comps average: $4.26M

 

Went down against comp because previews were in fact $9.25M not $10M like WB was dreaming of...

FLORIDA 

 

Ghostbusters

 

Thursday 

 

T-17

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
470	2208	95104	2.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

82

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-17

(0.469x) of Dune 2 $4.34M  

 

Comps average: $4.34M

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, vafrow said:

 

The only data that might be available on it is Quorum awareness data, but I can't recall if they've shown anything on it yet. But, it's going to be tough to get a read on it until the date is closer. I doubt we see much in the way of an advance sales window either.

Yeah, this one may perform like Argylle in terms of presales 

[babz06]

40 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Yeah, this one may perform like Argylle in terms of presales 

Why argylle? 

[BOfficeStats]

Cabrini has a Buy 1 Get 1 Free offer on Fandango.  The deal expires on April 30th so maybe it can give the film a nice boost.  

[leoh]

26 minutes ago, babz06 said:

Why argylle? 

this kind of offers worked really well for One Love.

[abracadabra1998]

On 2/29/2024 at 10:38 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

Minneapolis St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire (Day 1, 10:15 PM Count, T-21):

Day: T-21	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	90	173	173	16847	1.03

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		134	134	77.46
MTC1:		103	103	59.54
Marcus:		29	29	16.76
Alamo:		18	18	10.4
Other chains:		23	23	13.29

 

Day 1 Comps:

0.9x Hunger Games BoSS: $5.18 Million

 

2.34x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $10.52 Million

0.38x The Marvels: $2.49 Million

 

Average: $6.06 Million

 

T-21 Comps:

1.6x Haunted Mansion: $4.97 Million

1.44x Wonka: $5.05 Million

0.88x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $3.95 Million

 

Average: $4.66 Million

 

Honestly? Yeah, I am really impressed with these Day 1 sales. Def a good start! Not concentrated in MTC1 either right from the start is also a great sign. We shall see where it goes from here.

 

Minneapolis St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire (T-18):

Day: T-18	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	90	85	258	16847	1.53

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		196	62	75.97
MTC1:		142	39	55.04
Marcus:		35	6	13.57
Alamo:		36	18	13.95
Other chains:		45	22	17.44

 

Comps:

2.06x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $6.4 Million

1.63x Wonka: $5.71 Million

1.2x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $5.4 Million

1.14x TMNT (w/ EA): $6.28 Million

 

Average: $5.95 Million

 

Definitely running hot here. Any other comp ideas?

[charlie Jatinder]

Just now, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire (T-18):

Day: T-18	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	90	85	258	16847	1.53

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		196	62	75.97
MTC1:		142	39	55.04
Marcus:		35	6	13.57
Alamo:		36	18	13.95
Other chains:		45	22	17.44

 

Comps:

2.06x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $6.4 Million

1.63x Wonka: $5.71 Million

1.2x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $5.4 Million

1.14x TMNT (w/ EA): $6.28 Million

 

Average: $5.95 Million

 

Definitely running hot here. Any other comp ideas?

Do you have Hunger Games comp?

[abracadabra1998]

1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Do you have Hunger Games comp?

 

I will at T-15, when its run started. That's a good one, for sure will add it!

[dallas]

Kung Fu Panda 4

 

Thursday Previews

 

T-4

Tickets Sold: 52 (+6)

Growth: 13%

% PLF: n/a

5 theaters/18 showtimes

 

Comps:

(1.793x) of Migration - $2.69 Million

 

😬 fell behind Migration here by a lot. I think this will do ~$30M opening, and it could leg out if it's good. It has no competition for a while so there is room for money to be made. Let's see what happens.