The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[kayumanggi]

 

[kayumanggi]

 

[MrFanaticGuy34]

10 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

[kayumanggi]

 

[Flip]

44 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

100 less theaters than the last installment but that released during summer (drive ins + more theaters overall are open) and pre pandemic so it’s probably a similar share

[el sid]

Today I have more pleasant news for you (Tarot, The Fall Guy).

 

Tarot, counted today for today, had 184 sold tickets.

Up 61.5% since yesterday. A nice last-minute improvement. I saw that in other reports it looks better too.

 

Comps (all movies counted on Thursday for Thursday): The Invitation (775k from previews) had 218 sold tickets = 650k.

Prey for the Devil (660k) had 164 = 750k.

M3gan (2.75M) had 782 = 650k.

Lisa Frankenstein (700k) had 276 = 450k.

Abigail (1M) had 351 = 525k.

The First Omen (725k) had also 184 sold tickets = 725k.

Smile (2M) had 467 = 800k.

And Knock at the Cabin (1.5M) had 610 sold tickets = 450k.

 

Average: 625k. So it improved by ca. 100k since yesterday and I think that positive trend will continue till tomorrow so I say 700k+ from previews and with good walks-ups high single digits could still happen. 

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, SpiderByte said:

Yes, because of a pun.

 

Gosh, when you put it that way, you make it sound kinda weird. 

 

[NARRATOR:  Star Wars fans were indeed weird]

[Porthos]

7 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Gosh, when you put it that way, you make it sound kinda weird. 

 

[NARRATOR:  Star Wars fans were indeed weird]

 

Alright, look.  I'm not suggesting TPM re-release is gonna blow up and challenge for the weekend or anything like that.  Personally I'm kinda eyeballing 10m as either an over/under or a ceiling/target to reach.  Maybe.  I'm terrible at projecting OWs. Mostly mentally penciling in a 3m Fri based off of @katnisscinnaplex's numbers and going from there.

 

But I will say: Doubt the powah of Star Wars Day at your own peril.

 

How so?

 

Well, I'm not about to check my entire region for Fri/Sat/Sun, especially with Fandango starting to get VERY TETCHY about flood control, but I did check out a couple of the high trafficked theaters in town:

 

Century Arden TPM re-release:

Fri:    184/1094 

Sat:   271/1094 [+147.3%]

Sun:     78/1031    [-71.2%]

 

The Sat jump for pre-sales is even more stark Cinemark Roseville:

Cinemark Roseville TPM re-release:

Fri:     126/1062

Sat:   256/1062 [+203.2%]

Sun.    50/1062     [-80.5%]

 

Now this is only a couple of theaters, so the pattern might not be universal.  Especially at theaters with fewer showings (for instance Regal Delta Shores only has four showtimes on both Fri and Sat and is seeing a more normal Fri: 109 | Sat: 100 split). On the other hand, did a super quick check at one of the B+ tier/A- tier theaters in town and am still seeing a 32% jump on Saturday.

 

So, yeah.  Might be "just a pun", but, well SW fans have really adopted it as a Celebrate All Things Star Wars holiday.

Edited May 2 by Porthos

[kayumanggi]

51 minutes ago, Flip said:

100 less theaters than the last installment but that released during summer (drive ins + more theaters overall are open) and pre pandemic so it’s probably a similar share

 

This is still an estimate. We'll probably see an increase come opening weekend.

[Relevation]

TWO THEATER MN PRESALES TRACK (T-1)

05/01/24 (05/02/24 for Phantom Menace)

The Fall Guy - 80 tickets sold

Tarot - 12 tickets sold

Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace (Friday/re-release) - 124 tickets sold

 

COMPS

The Fall Guy (Thu only)

0.43x of Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire ($4.27M)

0.63x of Civil War ($1.84M)

0.66x of Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire ($3.08M)

1.54x of Argylle ($2.61M)

3.20x of The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare ($2.72M)

AVERAGE: $2.99M

 

Tarot

0.57x of Abigail ($570K)

0.70x of Imaginary ($512K)

0.92x of The First Omen ($669K)

AVERAGE: $584K

 

Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace (Friday)

0.34x of Dune: Part Two ($3.15M)

0.77x of Madame Web ($4.63M)

1.29x of Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba - To the Hashira Training ($2.33M)

AVERAGE: $3.37M

 

Posting a day later because I wanted to pull Phantom Menace data on T-1. Fall Guy and Tarot were both pulled Wednesday night as usual. The Fall Guy comps are kinda all over the place, because GxK under indexed and Civil War over indexed, but the average came just under $3M which sounds pretty right to me and likely means a debut in the high $20M range. $2.75-3M THU and a $25-28M OW is my prediction. Tarot sold very poorly as all horror seems to do in my market, and tied with The Book of Clarence for second worst seller on record. Thankfully tho my comps have been fairly predictable here, so $500-600K THU and a $6-7M OW sounds reasonable. I had no idea what to comp Phantom Menace with, throwing sci-fi with Dune, an all day release with Madame Web, and fan heavy rush with Demon Slayer into that possibly indicative $3.4M average. Could easily fall below $3M or swing close to $5M but since my anime comps were skewing weirdly low (hence why I didn’t add Spy x Family), I’m gonna err higher and say $3.5-4M THU and a $13-18M weekend.

[el sid]

The Fall Guy, counted today for today, had 1.071 sold tickets.

Up ok 24% since yesterday. Best sales in California and it improved in the AMC in Miami.

 

Comps (all movies counted on Thursday for Thursday): Argylle (1.7M from previews) had 997 sold tickets (yesterday The Fall Guy was only 18 tickets in front, not a big difference but a step in the right direction) = 1.85M.

BT (4.6M) had 1.508 = 3.25M.

TLC (2.5M) had 745 = 3.6M.

Death on the Nile (1.1M) had 466 = 2.55M.

Civil War (2.6M on Thursday) had 1.357 = 2.05M.

Amsterdam (550k) had 289 = 2.05M.

And Uncharted (3.7M) had 1.294 sold tickets = 3.05M.

 

Average: 2.6M true Thursday.

Only very slightly down from yesterday. So the jump was better than what I expected and the comparison number stayed more or less the same. Yesterday I feared that this movie could indeed end with 20M+ OW but today ca. 30M (just a rough guess) again look achievable to me judging from my theaters and other reports here. Good. 

[Rorschach]

15 hours ago, Rorschach said:

The Fall Guy - Wednesday Night Outlook 

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday:

2 IMAX showings: 6/776

2 XD showings: 11/476

4 2D showings: 33/404

Total: 50/1,656 (3% sold) [+15]

 

 

Tarot - Wednesday Night Outlook

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday:

6 2D showings: 19/489 (3.9% sold) [+2]

 

The Fall Guy - Thursday Afternoon Outlook - T-minus 1 hour to first showing

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday:

2 IMAX showings: 18/776

2 XD showings: 15/476

4 2D showings: 45/404

Total: 78/1,656 (4.7% sold) [+28]

 

 

Tarot - Thursday Afternoon Outlook - T-minus 0 to first showing

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday:

6 2D showings: 38/489 (7.8% sold) [+19]

[katnisscinnaplex]

8 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Fall Guy	T-0	Jax	6	47	57	148	7,640	1.94%
		Phx	7	32	67	175	5,148	3.40%
		Ral	8	36	32	156	5,296	2.95%
	Total		21	115	156	479	18,084	2.65%
Tarot	T-0	Jax	5	27	31	51	2,530	2.02%
		Phx	7	20	20	51	2,797	1.82%
		Ral	8	26	13	28	3,095	0.90%
	Total		20	73	64	130	8,422	1.54%

 

Fall Guy (Thu) T-0 adjusted comps

 - Jungle Cruise - .702x (1.97m)

 - Bullet Train - .459x (1.57m)

 - Cocaine Bear - .808x (1.91m)

 - Civil War - .685x (1.99m)

 - Free Guy - .836x (1.91m)

 - Ticket to Paradise - 1.69x (1.94m)

 - Lost City - .698x (2.11m)

 - Equalizer 3 - .592x (2.25m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 1.98m

Growth model forecast - 1.65m

 

A few other smaller release comps for fun:

 - Snake Eyes - 1.16x (1.72m)

 - Gran Turismo - 1.54x (2.15m)

 - Devotion - 2.65x (1.97m)

 

I know this looks like an amazing day compared to the last week, but it's only a slightly better growth than most of the comps.  Still one of the lowest in the last three days growth.   Hoping for +60ish% today which would bring the average to... 2.03m.  Unless walkups are insane I think 2m is a good goal for true previews.

 

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Fall Guy	122.79%	32.09%	22.60%	48.30%
Jungle Cruise	185.36%	28.03%	29.07%	47.62%
Bullet Train	140.55%	26.50%	24.45%	40.89%
Cocaine Bear	144.03%	32.92%	9.82%	41.87%
Civil War	134.56%	34.90%	38.66%	37.60%
Free Guy	87.87%	33.44%	51.23%	41.83%
Paradise	-	-	-	44.39%
Lost City	151.28%	25.64%	12.81%	42.03%
Equalizer 3	116.89%	32.44%	38.89%	40.70%

 

 

Tarot T-0 adjusted comps

 - M3GAN - .213x (586k)

 - Abigail - .65x (650k)

 - Talk to Me - .339x (423k)

 - The First Omen - 1.215x (881k)

 - Invitation - .695x (552k)

 - Immaculate - 1.238x (681k)

 - Prey for the Devil - .935x (632k)

 

Size adjusted comps - 681k

Growth model forecast - 652k

 

This one was a bit more impressive (and even more needed).  Hopefully a good sign for both movies heading into the final day.

 

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Tarot	261.11%	27.78%	30.77%	96.97%
M3GAN	-	-	-	82.63%
Abigail	170.27%	45.95%	30.00%	69.49%
Talk to Me	275.49%	47.06%	42.59%	55.69%
First Omen	224.24%	33.33%	-	67.19%
The Invitation	356.10%	-	-	78.10%
Immaculate	238.71%	77.42%	-	50.00%
Prey for the Devil	-	-	-	41.84%

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Fall Guy	1-Hr	Jax	6	47	92	240	7,640	3.14%
		Phx	7	32	90	265	5,148	5.15%
		Ral	8	36	147	303	5,296	5.72%
	Total		21	115	329	808	18,084	4.47%
Tarot	1-Hr	Jax	5	27	32	83	2,530	3.28%
		Phx	7	20	24	75	2,797	2.68%
		Ral	8	26	26	54	3,095	1.74%
	Total		20	73	82	212	8,422	2.52%

 

Eclipsed my +60% projection and went for +68.7%!

 

Fall Guy (Thu) T-1 hr adjusted comps

 - Jungle Cruise - .733x (2.06m)

 - Bullet Train - .543x (1.86m)

 - Civil War - .755x (2.19m)

 - Free Guy - .93x (2.12m)

 - Ticket to Paradise - 1.82x (2.09m)

 - Lost City - .806x (2.43m)

 - Equalizer 3 - .528x (2.01m)

All action movies - 1.84m

All PG-13 - 1.88m

All movies - 2.03m

 

Size adjusted comps - 2.13m

Growth model forecast - 1.93m

 

A few other smaller release comps for fun:

 - Snake Eyes - 1.18x (1.75m)

 - Gran Turismo - 1.81x (2.53m)

 

Pretty solid final day!  I think 2m is very likely at this point, and I'll even go up to 2.2m for my true previews prediction.

 

Tarot T-1 hr adjusted comps

 - M3GAN - .191x (525k)

 - Abigail - .652x (652k)

 - Talk to Me - .33x (410k)

 - The First Omen - .968x (702k)

 - Invitation - .695x (551k)

 - Immaculate - 1.158x (637k)

 - Prey for the Devil - .934x (631k)

All horror - 542k

All PG-13 horror - 573k

All movies - 446k

 

Size adjusted comps - 641k

Growth model forecast - 605k

 

Gotta go with the growth model on this one with 600k.

[abracadabra1998]

Will only be able to post the numbers tonight but just in raw numbers the T-1 hour update for Fall Guy is looking pretty good!

[TheFlatLannister]

On 4/27/2024 at 8:41 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

KINGDOM OF THE PLANET OF THE APES

 

Thursday 

T-12

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
499	1979	101745	1.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

59

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-12

(0.360x) of Dune 2 $3.35M

(0.668x) of Ghostbusters $3.13M

(0.644x) of Godzilla and Kong $6.44M

Comps average: $4.31M

FLORIDA 

 

KINGDOM OF THE PLANET OF THE APES

 

Thursday 

 

T-7

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
525	2300	106598	2.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

90

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

24

 

COMPS

T-7

(0.350x) of Dune 2 $3.26M

(0.622x) of Ghostbusters $2.92M

(0.602x) of Godzilla and Kong $6.02M

Comps average: $4.06M

[TheFlatLannister]

Fall guy is not having bad walkups so far. Currently comp'ng at $2.45M

[Flopped]

Tarot reviews are trickling in and they are brutal. I wonder if it's going to affect pre-sales once more reviews come in. 

[vafrow]

12 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

The Fall Guy, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-1, Thursday previews and Wednesday EA

 

Total Sales: 79

New Sales: 18

Growth: 30%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 12

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 5.6

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Evening: 61/6

Late Evening: 18/6

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

 

Dolby: 46/6

IMAX: 10/4

4DX: 12/2

 

EA sales (T-0 yesterday from 6:45 pm)

Total: 135

Showtimes: 6

Theatres: 5

 

Comps (Previews only, no EA)

0.451x Wonka for $1.6M

0.534x GB:FE for $2.5M

0.120x GxK for $1.2M

0.188x HG:BoSS for $1.1M

Avg: $1.6M

 

Dipping back down a bit on the final day on comps isn't the greatest sign. While the EAs had good walk ups, and I expect similar today, it doesn't feel like there's a lot of room for this to overperform. I didn't throw it into comps as I only had T-1, but it's behind both Challengers and Civil War for Thursday sales by a hefty margin.

 

When you roll in EA, I'm guessing we're looking at Thursday numbers of $2.5M or so.

 

It's not the start of summer we were hoping for .

 

 

The Fall Guy, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-0 (6:30 update), Thursday previews and Wednesday EA

 

Total Sales: 199

New Sales: 120

Growth: 152%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 12

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 14.2

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Evening: 151/6

Late Evening: 48/6

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

 

Dolby: 129/6

IMAX: 17/4

4DX: 29/2

 

I managed to get an update in right before the first shows start, so able to measure walk ups.

 

150% growth, and with potential for late shows, that could get this to tripling it's numbers at the start of the day.

 

I don't have a lot of comps measuring walk ups due to the challenge of getting the data, but being in range of tripling is good.

 

The slow sales leading up to this and high walk up rates might also have to do with the ticket policies in place with the chain around the chain's online booking fees that might be encouraging people to buy at the theatre. It's a theory that I held for a while until Dune obliterated that idea.

[Flip]

Will get lost in the flurry of Fall Guy posts but Mobile Suit Gundam is selling good compared to Spy X Family, but it has much less showings and no PLFs

[AniNate]

1 hour ago, Flopped said:

Tarot reviews are trickling in and they are brutal. I wonder if it's going to affect pre-sales once more reviews come in. 

 

I feel like anyone buying tickets isn't all that concerned about the tomatometer