The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[HummingLemon496]

This thread until Inside Out 2 presales:

 

[Cmasterclay]

I think Bad Boys is really gonna surprise some people here! Then again, I am in a mostly non-white area in Miami metro region, so certainly I'm oversampling. It led me right last time!

[MysteryMovieMogul]

Okay, how bad must The Fall Guy presales be for this to happen? https://www.instagram.com/reel/C6aKE6ItV6O/?igsh=MTc4MmM1YmI2Ng==

[WebSurfer]

5 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

This thread until Inside Out 2 presales:

 

It’d be hilarious if something similar happens for IO2

[PrinceRico]

4 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I think Bad Boys is really gonna surprise some people here! Then again, I am in a mostly non-white area in Miami metro region, so certainly I'm oversampling. It led me right last time!

But will it really be a surprise? Is a very popular franchise and the last assortment got very good word of mouth.

[abracadabra1998]

23 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

The Fall Guy (T-3):

Day: T-3, T-2	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 25 theaters	85	55	310	14944	2.07
Wednesday May 1 EA: 19 theaters	23	29	315	5129	6.14
TOTALS:	108	84	625	20073	3.11

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		233	33	75.16
MTC1:		214	35	69.03
Alamo:		24	4	7.74
Other chains:		72	16	23.23

 

Thursday Comps:

1.11x Monkey Man: $1.55 Million

0.59x Civil War: $1.72 Million

0.4x Ghostbusters Frozen Empire: $1.88 Million (17 theaters)

Madame Web (OD):  Missed

0.64x Wonka: $2.25 Million (17 theaters)

0.56x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $2.54 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $2 Million

 

EA Comps:

0.97x Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare: $585k

0.82x Mean Girls: $530k

0.49x MI7: $975k

 

Average: $695k

 

Very unimpressive, especially the EA numbers. I would have expected them to start climbing up by now. Again, my comps are not the best and walk-ups are king for this, but without a catalyst like a buzzy review drop I can see this have a rough final week. At this point my prediction is we are in for a depressing weekend thread

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

The Fall Guy (T-2):

Day: T-2, T-1	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 25 theaters	96	52	362	16676	2.17
Wednesday May 1 EA: 19 theaters	23	54	369	5129	7.19
TOTALS:	119	106	731	21805	3.35

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		269	36	74.31
MTC1:		248	34	68.51
Alamo:		29	5	8.01
Other chains:		85	13	23.48

 

Thursday Comps:

1.16x Monkey Man: $1.62 Million

0.58x Civil War: $1.68 Million

0.35x Ghostbusters Frozen Empire: $1.65 Million (17 theaters)

0.45x Madame Web (OD):  $2.7 Million (17 theaters)

0.63x Wonka: $2.22 Million (17 theaters)

0.56x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $2.5 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $2.06 Million

 

EA Comps:

1.34x Challengers: $735k

1x Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare: $605k

0.81x Mean Girls: $525k

0.48x MI7: $955k

 

Average: $705k

 

I will try to do a T-1 hour update for EA tomorrow but we shall see if that happens. EA maybe around $700-800k from my numbers, Thursday continues to look anemic.

[abracadabra1998]

23 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Tarot (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 22 theaters	62	8	34	5567	0.61

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		22	4	64.71
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		12	4	35.29

 

Comps:

0.33x Abigail: $330k

0.81x First Oman: $585k

0.67x Immaculate: $370k

0.44x Imaginary: $320k

0.51x Last Voyage of Demeter: $380k

 

Average: $395k

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Tarot (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 25 theaters	73	17	51	6613	0.77

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		25	3	49.02
Alamo:		5	5	9.8
Other chains:		21	9	41.18

 

Comps:

0.38x Abigail: $385k

0.76x First Oman: $550k

Immaculate: Missed

0.48x Imaginary: $345k

0.44x Last Voyage of Demeter: $320k

 

Average: $400k

 

Probably settle around $400-500k unless this has crazy last-minute growth

[Cmasterclay]

7 minutes ago, PrinceRico said:

But will it really be a surprise? Is a very popular franchise and the last assortment got very good word of mouth.

I think it jumps to a John Wick 4 type opening - 75/190 has been my prediction for awhile. 

[crazymoviekid]

The Fall Guy:

 

Thursday Comps:

 

Theater 1: 2 Tickets

Theater 2: 11 Tickets

 

TMoUW: $1.54M

Argylle: $2.21M

The Beekeeper: $1.34M

Gran Turismo: $.79M

Bullet Train: $1.81M

 

Bad. Very bad. Not a single sale anywhere. Closer to $1.5M-$2.5M.

 

Friday Comps:: 

 

Theater 1: 8 Tickets

Theater 2: 19 Tickets

 

TMoUW: $6.87M

Argylle: $10.77M

The Beekeeper: $5.36M

Gran Turismo: $16.02M

Bullet Train: $13.09M

 

Bit of wide range. Feeling just around $10M for now

[crazymoviekid]

Tarot:

 

Thursday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 4 Tickets

Theater 2: 4 Tickets

 

Abigail: $1.14M

Imaginary: $.41M

Night Swim: $1.29M

Thanksgiving: $.73M

Firestarter: $.38M

 

Decent day. Leveling off at $1M

 

Friday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 3 Tickets

Theater 2: 0 Tickets

 

Abigail: $1.52M

Imaginary: $2.17M

Night Swim: $1.27M

Thanksgiving: $1.21M

Firestarter: $.56M

 

Not great start. Looking around $1.5M-$2M

[emoviefan]

1 minute ago, PrinceRico said:

But will it really be a surprise? Is a very popular franchise and the last assortment got very good word of mouth.

Yeah I don't think there is any worry about that unless the quality drops a lot from BB 4 Life. With that and I02  back to back and then Quiet Place Day One and Hopefully Horizon Part 1 things will be much better than they are now.

 

[filmlover]

True catastrophe for The Fall Guy would be if it opens below $20M. Don't think it happens, but a sub-$100M total is feeling more likely than not. Oh well.

[emoviefan]

8 minutes ago, crazymoviekid said:

The Fall Guy:

 

Thursday Comps:

 

Theater 1: 2 Tickets

Theater 2: 11 Tickets

 

TMoUW: $1.54M

Argylle: $2.21M

The Beekeeper: $1.34M

Gran Turismo: $.79M

Bullet Train: $1.81M

 

Bad. Very bad. Not a single sale anywhere. Closer to $1.5M-$2.5M.

 

Friday Comps:: 

 

Theater 1: 8 Tickets

Theater 2: 19 Tickets

 

TMoUW: $6.87M

Argylle: $10.77M

The Beekeeper: $5.36M

Gran Turismo: $16.02M

Bullet Train: $13.09M

 

Bit of wide range. Feeling just around $10M for now

Honestly Friday does not seem too bad when combined with Thursday that would be 12 or so for"OD". Backing up that this not a movie that people feel the need to see ASAP during previews. With good WOM and Walkups on the weekend it would not be terrible. 

[Relevation]

48 minutes ago, filmlover said:

True catastrophe for The Fall Guy would be if it opens below $20M. Don't think it happens, but a sub-$100M total is feeling more likely than not. Oh well.

I think the absolute worst scenario on the table for The Fall Guy is The Phantom Menace somehow beating it for #1 in a $20M to $19M style situation, that would be a total nightmare for all talent involved 

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Fall Guy MTC1

Early Shows - 15484/92957 339031.28 378 shows +1350

Previews(T-3) - 16714/354658 342888.20 1750 shows +2459

Friday - 17830/661668 350760.84 3241 shows +3285

 

It again accelerated. But does not look like hitting 50K that I was hoping few days ago. Best case scenario is 45K and probably finishing closer to low 40s. Let us wait and see. I am also hoping ratio wont be as crazy as past few weeks as this movie has star power and should play wider.  

Fall Guy MTC1

Early Shows - 16925/92957 368498.63 378 shows +1441

Previews(T-2) - 19290/379052 392914.54 1919 shows +2576

Friday - 21782/726203 424962.12 3689 shows +3952 

 

not much of an acceleration today. ATP is good and it should play better and so I am expecting 33-35% ratio. Still looking at low 2s pure thursday and around ~3m with early shows. OW could go as low as mid 20s if things dont pick up 😞

[emoviefan]

I think we may be putting too much emphasis on Presales for Previews for this. Or maybe not.

[Rorschach]

23 hours ago, Rorschach said:

The Fall Guy - Monday Night Outlook

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Wednesday Early Access:

1 IMAX showing: 8/388

1 XD showing: 14/238

Total: 22/626 (3.5% sold)

 

Thursday:

2 IMAX showings: 1/776

2 XD showings: 3/476

4 2D showings: 11/404

Total: 15/1,656 (0.9% sold)

 

Friday:

5 IMAX showings: 15/1,940

1 XD showing: 0/238

6 2D showings: 15/674

Total: 30/2,852 (1.1% sold)

Thurs + Fri: 45/4,508 (1% sold)

Plus Early Access: 67/5,134 (1.3% sold)

 

 

Tarot - Monday Night Outlook

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday:

6 2D showings: 12/489 (2.5% sold)

 

Friday:

7 2D showings: 7/581 (1.2% sold)

Thurs + Fri: 19/1,070 (1.8% sold)

 

 

The Phantom Menace 25th Anniversary - Monday Night Outlook

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Friday:

3 XD showings: 0/714 

9 2D showings: 125/708

Total: 125/1,422 (8.8% sold)

 

^ dayum lol

 

The Fall Guy - Tuesday Night Outlook

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Wednesday Early Access:

1 IMAX showing: 8/388

1 XD showing: 16/238

Total: 24/626 (3.8% sold) [+2]

 

Thursday:

2 IMAX showings: 1/776

2 XD showings: 5/476

4 2D showings: 29/404

Total: 35/1,656 (2.1% sold) [+20]

 

Friday:

5 IMAX showings: 21/1,940

1 XD showing: 1/238

6 2D showings: 33/674

Total: 55/2,852 (1.9% sold) [+25]

 

Thurs + Fri: 90/4,508 (2% sold) [+45]

Plus Early Access: 114/5,134 (2.2% sold) [+47]

 

 

Tarot - Tuesday Night Outlook

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday:

6 2D showings: 17/489 (3.5% sold) [+5]

 

Friday:

7 2D showings: 13/581 (2.2% sold) [+6]

Thurs + Fri combined: 30/1,070 (2.8% sold) [+11]

 

 

The Phantom Menace 25th Anniversary - Tuesday Night Outlook

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Friday:

3 XD showings: 5/714 (0.7% sold)

9 2D showings: 134/708 (18.9% sold) 

Total: 139/1,422 (9.8% sold) [+14]

[babz06]

23 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

I think we may be putting too much emphasis on Presales for Previews for this. Or maybe not.

I don’t think anyone is putting emphasis on them. This is the tracking thread afterall. The numbers are what they are. 

[emoviefan]

3 minutes ago, babz06 said:

I don’t think anyone is putting emphasis on them. This is the tracking thread afterall. The numbers are what they are. 

Yeah the pre sales for the previews are terrible. Not arguing that. I just mean the whole this movie is doomed because of that we can not say for sure. This movie may very well appeal to a audience that does not feel the need to go to Wed or Thursday night shows and can wait until Friday through Sunday and if WOM is good it will get good walkups. Honestly trying to stay positive. I will deal with the negative if and when it happens.

[jeffthehat]

Indiana

The Fall Guy T-2ish

Sales	Seats	Shows
531	19708	112

Comps

0.33x Ghostbusters FE T-2 = $1.4m*

0.20x Dune 2 T-2 = $1.8m*

1.43x Challengers T-2 = $2.1m

0.28x GxK NE T-2 = $2.5m*

0.91x Civil War T-2 = $2.7m

*pulled 10-12 hrs earlier, rounded comp down 10% to account

 

AVG = $2.1m

---

Pace hasn't looked encouraging to me in other markets. Challengers finished with meh walkups after good final pace so hopefully the inverse happens here. 

Edited May 1 by jeffthehat