The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[TomThomas]

4 hours ago, ThomasNicole said:

The Fall Guy looks fun but it’s concept isn’t remotely fresh and outside of the meta aspect, it does look similar to some other very recent movies that didn’t do that well either.

Idk, Hollywood stuntman solving a murder mystery and disappearence of his star sounds more fresh to me than "avenge something" action flick about hitman.

[Kon]

5 hours ago, TomThomas said:

Idk, Hollywood stuntman solving a murder mystery and disappearence of his star sounds more fresh to me than "avenge something" action flick about hitman.

People tend to mix the words "fresh" and "interesting".

 

People won't want a "fresh" concept if this doesn't arouse their interest.

Edited May 1 by Kon

[Porthos]

On 4/30/2024 at 1:31 AM, Porthos said:

Quick and Dirty The Fall Guy Sacramento Report [T-3]

543/17902 (3.03% sold) [EA: 151/2921 | Thr: 392/14981] 121 showings.

 

0.27452x  RotB at T-3      [2.42m]
0.41513x  BOSS at T-3     [2.39m]
0.62847x Wonka at T-3    [2.20m]
0.50000x Aqua 2 at T-3   [2.25m]
0.55498x  GB:FE at T-3    [2.60m]

 

====

 

Didn't have time to pull numbers last night, so no Daily Pace info.  I also know that some folks like separating out EA from Thr, but eh.  Not gonna put the effort into it for this one.  RotB is an interesting 1:1 though, since it's EA was one day before previews.  Though the difference between a high 8s preview film and one that is in the 2-4 range is pretty stark.

 

Threw in a semi-random sample of movie comps, mostly cribbed off of @abracadabra1998's list plus a couple of others I had.  Anyone wants to throw in suggestions for sub 5m previews, I'm game.  If I happen to have them that is.  Could just be doing poorly here, though 2.5m combined is broadly in line with Minneapolis as well as Florida.

 

Have a better sense of things when I have actual pace info starting tomorrow.

 

Quick and Dirty The Fall Guy Sacramento Report [T-2]

647/18444 (3.51% sold) [+104 tickets] [EA: 176/2921 | Thr: 471/15523] [+25 | +79] 124 showings.

 

0.25859x RotB at T-2        [2.28m]
0.41132x BOSS at T-2        [2.37m]
0.63245x Wonka at T-2     [2.21m]
0.51025x Aqua 2 at T-2     [2.30m]
0.53782x  GB:FE at T-2     [2.53m]

 

=====

 

Meh.  No real movement on comps, though is trending very slightly downwards.

 

...

 

At least it isn't collapsing. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

My bigger worry/concern is that there is very little movement on the Wed EA showings.  Only 25 tickets for a T-1 EA izza nah good.  Not exactly the greatest of omens.  Have to see how it actually goes tomorrow, I suppose.

[vafrow]

On 4/30/2024 at 4:52 AM, vafrow said:

 

The Fall Guy, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-3, Thursday previews and Wednesday EA

 

Total Sales: 48

New Sales: 19

Growth: 66%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 12

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 3.4

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Evening: 36/6

Late Evening: 12/6

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

 

Dolby: 31/6

IMAX: 6/4

4DX: 10/2

 

EA sales

Total: 61

Showtimes: 6

Theatres: 5

 

Comps (Previews only, no EA)

0.533x Wonka for $1.9M

0.539x GB:FE for $2.5M

0.119x GxK for $1.2M

0.149x HG:BoSS for $0.9M

Avg: $1.6M

 

A good day, although it's more about the law of small numbers. 66% growth is nice, but not that impressive when your baseline is so small.

 

Still, it's nice to see some life here.

 

The Fall Guy, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-2, Thursday previews and Wednesday EA

 

Total Sales: 61

New Sales: 13

Growth: 27%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 12

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 4.4

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Evening: 47/6

Late Evening: 14/6

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

 

Dolby: 35/6

IMAX: 8/4

4DX: 13/2

 

EA sales

Total: 65

Showtimes: 6

Theatres: 5

 

Comps (Previews only, no EA)

0.513x Wonka for $1.8M

0.616x GB:FE for $2.9M

0.123x GxK for $1.2M

0.167x HG:BoSS for $1.0M

Avg: $1.7M

 

While I'm not reporting it still, I do still have the comps with EA rolled in, which is giving an average of $3.6M. While we won't know for a while if those EA shows will help spread word of mouth on this, it feels like it's only served to split the preview audiences between Wednesday and Thursday, and as a result, there won't be as many packed houses for this.

 

[vafrow]

On 4/30/2024 at 4:57 AM, vafrow said:

 

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, T-10 Thursday previews and Wednesday EA shows, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 58

New Sales: 7

Growth: 14%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 16

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 3.6

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 3/3

Early Evening: 48/7

Late Evening: 7/6

 

Sales by Format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 27/7

IMAX: 19/6

VIP: 11/3

 

EA shows 

Sales: 26

Theatres: 4

Showtimes: 4

New Sales: 2

 

Comps (excludes EA unless stated)

1.273x Fall Guy (both with EA and preview)

0.106x Dune 2 for $1.1M

1.036x GB:FE for $4.9M

0.320x GxK for $3.2M

0.392x HG: BoSS for $2.3M

 

Average: $2.8M

 

Okay day. 

 

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, T-9 Thursday previews and Wednesday EA shows, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 66

New Sales: 8

Growth: 14%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 20

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 3.3

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 3/3

Early Evening: 57/7

Late Evening: 6/6

 

Sales by Format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 30/7

IMAX: 21/6

VIP: 15/3

 

EA shows 

Sales: 29

Theatres: 4

Showtimes: 4

New Sales: 3

 

Comps (excludes EA unless stated)

1.377x Fall Guy (both with EA and preview)

0.116x Dune 2 for $1.2M

1.138x GB:FE for $5.3M

0.332x GxK for $3.3M

0.369x HG: BoSS for $2.1M

 

Average: $3.0M

 

I wouldn't say it's doing great, but it is trending in the right direction right now. Hopefully that continues.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 4/30/2024 at 7:52 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Fall Guy	T-2	Jax	6	41	14	64	6,848	0.93%
		Phx	7	24	4	86	4,147	2.07%
		Ral	8	32	10	93	4,817	1.93%
	Total		21	97	28	243	15,812	1.54%
Fall Guy (EA)	T-1	Jax	5	10	10	79	2,007	3.94%
		Phx	1	2	-2	29	618	4.69%
		Ral	2	2	6	53	412	12.86%
	Total		8	14	14	161	3,037	5.30%
Phantom Menace (Re) (OD)	T-3	Jax	5	30	31	243	2,754	8.82%
		Phx	6	19	17	257	2,195	11.71%
		Ral	7	32	20	303	3,388	8.94%
	Total		18	81	68	803	8,337	9.63%
Tarot	T-2	Jax	5	22	1	14	1,846	0.76%
		Phx	6	16	-2	13	2,534	0.51%
		Ral	7	23	3	11	2,764	0.40%
	Total		18	61	2	38	7,144	0.53%

 

Fall Guy (Total) T-2 adjusted comps

 - Jungle Cruise - 1.23x (3.45m)

 - Bullet Train (Total) - .52x (2.43m)

 - Cocaine Bear - 1.25x (2.96m)

 - Civil War - 1.07x (3.1m)

 - Free Guy - 1.15x (2.63m)

 - Ticket to Paradise (Total) - 2.01x (2.67m)

 - Lost City (Total) - .719x (2.82m)

 - Equalizer 3 - .892x (3.39m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 2.91m

 

I was hoping for +30% and it only grew 11.6%... I don't know what to say that hasn't already been said.  I don't see any reason to think it grows from here.  Hopefully it levels out though and can at least hit 2.5m.  Free Guy is the closest comp in terms of daily and 3-day growth so maybe that comp stays flat.  It only had +15% next day as well while most of the others were 30-40% growth again.  Here's a look at how the comps have been falling over the past five days:

 

Day:	T-2	T-3	T-4	T-5	T-6
Fall Guy Total
Jungle Cruise	1.232	1.515	1.510	1.508	1.448
Bullet Train + EA	0.516	0.580	0.587	0.573	0.578
Cocaine Bear	1.255	1.490			1.528
Civil War	1.069	1.215	1.217	1.179	1.284
Free Guy	1.151	1.187	1.108	1.134	1.227
Paradise Total	2.010			3.375	3.557
Lost City Total	0.719	0.797	0.792	0.783	0.902
Equalizer 3	0.892	0.971	0.960	0.964	0.988

 

Tarot T-2 adjusted comps

 - M3GAN - .174x (477k)

 - Abigail - .413x (413k)

 - Talk to Me - .275x (343k)

 - The First Omen - .731x (530k)

 - Invitation - .567x (450k)

 - Immaculate - .905x (498k)

 

Size adjusted comps - 494k

 

I think the pace chart says it all for this one.  Pretty tarotble

 

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Tarot	31.03%	31.03%	100.00%	5.56%
Abigail	91.67%	33.33%	18.75%	24.32%
Talk to Me	86.49%	50.00%	29.73%	35.29%
First Omen	136.36%	18.18%	-	57.58%
The Invitation	-	-	-	63.41%
Immaculate	320.00%	-	-	35.48%

 

Phantom Menace (OD) T-3 adjusted comps 

 - Ghostbusters Afterlife (Total) - .862x (3.37m)

 - Ghostbusters: FE - 1.09x (3.93m)

 - Transformers 6 (Total) - .476x (3.35m)

 - F9 - .555x (3.42m)

 - Morbius - .716x (3.43m)

 - Indiana Jones - .588x (3.47m)

 

Just for kicks I took a look at the LotR re-releases scheduled for June.  They're getting one show each (for the most part) in around 1k theaters.  

 

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
LotR Fellowship (Re) (OD)	T-39	Jax	5	5	129	129	833	15.49%
		Phx	5	6	286	286	942	30.36%
		Ral	5	6	211	211	622	33.92%
	Total		15	17	626	626	2,397	26.12%
LotR Return of the King (Re) (OD)	T-41	Jax	5	5	111	111	833	13.33%
		Phx	5	6	247	247	942	26.22%
		Ral	5	6	191	191	622	30.71%
	Total		15	17	549	549	2,397	22.90%
LotR Two Towers (Re) (OD)	T-40	Jax	5	5	114	114	833	13.69%
		Phx	5	6	228	228	942	24.20%
		Ral	5	5	186	186	534	34.83%
	Total		15	16	528	528	2,309	22.87%

 

Some locations already adding a second showing.  Glad to see my favorite franchise performing well!

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Fall Guy	T-1	Jax	6	47	27	91	7,640	1.19%
		Phx	7	32	22	108	5,148	2.10%
		Ral	8	36	31	124	5,296	2.34%
	Total		21	115	80	323	18,084	1.79%
Fall Guy (EA)	T-0	Jax	5	10	5	84	2,007	4.19%
		Phx	1	2	10	39	618	6.31%
		Ral	2	2	1	54	412	13.11%
	Total		8	14	16	177	3,037	5.83%
Phantom Menace (Re) (OD)	T-2	Jax	5	41	14	257	4,055	6.34%
		Phx	7	37	38	295	3,695	7.98%
		Ral	7	36	14	317	3,680	8.61%
	Total		19	114	66	869	11,430	7.60%
Tarot	T-1	Jax	5	27	6	20	2,530	0.79%
		Phx	7	20	18	31	2,797	1.11%
		Ral	8	26	4	15	3,095	0.48%
	Total		20	73	28	66	8,422	0.78%

 

Fall Guy (EA) T-0 adjusted comps*

 - Bullet Train EA - .686x (1.04m)

 - Ungentlemanly EA - .381x (270k)

 - Lost City EA - .689x (634k)

 - Dog EA (Mon) - .651x (244k)

 - Challengers EA - 1.609x (885k)

 - Creed III EA - .456x (456k)

 - M:I 7 EA - .199x (239k)

 

These are admittedly all over the place.  Gut is saying like 600k for EA total

 

Fall Guy (Thu) T-1 adjusted comps*

 - Jungle Cruise - .699x (1.96m)

 - Bullet Train - .436x (1.49m)

 - Cocaine Bear - .773x (1.82m)

 - Civil War - .636x (1.84m)

 - Free Guy - .8x (1.83m)

 - Ticket to Paradise - 1.65x (1.89m)

 - Lost City - .669x (2.02m)

 - Equalizer 3 - .562x (2.13m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 1.91m

 

*Split EA and preview comps

 

Tarot T-1 adjusted comps

 - M3GAN - .198x (543k)

 - Abigail - .559x (559k)

 - Talk to Me - .268x (334k)

 - The First Omen - 1.031x (748k)

 - Invitation - .629x (499k)

 - Immaculate - .943x (519k)

 

Size adjusted comps - 602k

 

Phantom Menace (OD) T-2 adjusted comps 

 - Ghostbusters Afterlife (Total) - .772x (3.02m)

 - Ghostbusters: FE - .983x (3.55m)

 - Transformers 6 (Total) - .44x (3.1m)

 - F9 - .502x (3.1m)

 - Morbius - .613x (2.93m)

 - Indiana Jones - .528x (3.12m)

 - Dragon Ball Z - .705x (2.55m)

 - Matrix 4 (OD) - .311x (2.1m)

[TwoMisfits]

9 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

I think Bad Boys is really gonna surprise some people here! Then again, I am in a mostly non-white area in Miami metro region, so certainly I'm oversampling. It led me right last time!

 

Not the thread...but I agree.

 

I think it's the perfect timing for the open, and it's gonna open in a great weekend spot.  I'd join a Bad Boys OW DOM over The Fall Guys OW DOM...heck, I might even join one against Apes (which I think is also gonna disappoint, but probably not as bad against folks' initial Jan 2024 expectations as Fall Guy will)...

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 4/30/2024 at 7:54 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Kingdom of Apes	T-9	Jax	5	47	2	82	8,044	1.02%
		Phx	6	40	5	96	7,757	1.24%
		Ral	8	42	8	85	6,233	1.36%
	Total		19	129	15	263	22,034	1.19%
Kingdom of Apes (EA)	T-8	Jax	5	9	4	108	1,802	5.99%
		Phx	1	2	5	57	618	9.22%
		Ral	2	2	0	49	412	11.89%
	Total		8	13	9	214	2,832	7.56%

 

T-9 (Total) adjusted comps

 - Fall Guy (Total) - 2.511x

 - M:I 7 (Total) - .501x (4.4m)

 - F9 - .552x (4.15m)

 - Dune - .696x (3.69m)

 - NTTD (Total) - .698x (4.57m)

 - John Wick 4 - .456x (4.06m)

 - TMNT (Total) - .744x (4.42m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - .528x (3.24m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 4.4m

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Kingdom of Apes	T-8	Jax	5	48	8	90	8,321	1.08%
		Phx	6	40	2	98	7,757	1.26%
		Ral	8	43	6	91	6,314	1.44%
	Total		19	131	16	279	22,392	1.25%
Kingdom of Apes (EA)	T-7	Jax	5	9	-2	106	1,802	5.88%
		Phx	1	2	6	63	618	10.19%
		Ral	2	2	4	53	412	12.86%
	Total		8	13	8	222	2,832	7.84%

 

T-8 (Total) adjusted comps

 - Fall Guy (Total) - 2.432x

 - M:I 7 (Total) - .504x (4.44m)

 - F9 - .557x (4.19m)

 - Dune - .674x (3.57m)

 - NTTD (Total) - .657x (4.3m)

 - TMNT (Total) - .714x (4.24m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - .481x (2.96m)

 - Godzilla x Kong - .694x (6.26m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 5.96m

 

Added Godzilla which brought the average way up

[Minnale101]

Not to say it doesn’t matter but time and time again, it’s so clear that tracking for animated movies doesn’t matter until last week 

 

Garfield definitely hitting 50 million ow 

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 4/30/2024 at 8:01 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
IF	T-16	Jax	5	22	14	14	3,641	0.38%
		Phx	6	23	5	5	3,523	0.14%
		Ral	8	27	26	26	3,939	0.66%
	Total		19	72	45	45	11,103	0.41%

 

Day 1 comps

 - Garfield (Total) - .833x

 - TMNT (Total) - .15x (737k)

 - Sonic 2 - .242x (1.55m)

 

Regal sales - 25

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
IF	T-15	Jax	5	22	10	24	3,641	0.66%
		Phx	6	24	23	28	3,847	0.73%
		Ral	8	27	2	28	3,939	0.71%
	Total		19	73	35	80	11,427	0.70%

 

Day 2 comps

 - Garfield (Total) - 1.111x

 - TMNT - .217x (1.07m)

- Sonic 2 - .352x (2.25m)

[YM!]

51 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Not the thread...but I agree.

 

I think it's the perfect timing for the open, and it's gonna open in a great weekend spot.  I'd join a Bad Boys OW DOM over The Fall Guys OW DOM...heck, I might even join one against Apes (which I think is also gonna disappoint, but probably not as bad against folks' initial Jan 2024 expectations as Fall Guy will)...

Bad Boys should be the biggest non Deadpool live action opener this summer. Only other one with a shot at 65m+ OW is Twisters.

[filmlover]

I'm looking forward to it but Furiosa feels like a nonstarter. Prequel syndrome strikes again, I guess. Don't think anyone would be surprised if it makes $80M total or so.

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

Fall Guy (EA) - 79/1,171 (5 shows)

 - Bullet Train (EA) - .84x (1.05m)

 

Fall Guy (Thu) - 62/7,319 (37 shows)

 - Bullet Train (Thu) - .363x (1.21m)

 - Beast - 2.696x (2.49m)

 - Massive Talent - 2.214x (1.85m)

 

 Bullet Train total is at 2.26m (without any adjustment)

 

Tarot - 10/2,757 (18 shows)

 - Firestarter - 1x (375k)

 

Phantom Menace (Fri) - 474/3,148 (20 shows)

 - Dragon Ball Z - .506x (3.34m)

 - Avatar 2 - .109x (3.96m)

 - Top Gun 2 - .115x (3.76m)

 - Batman - .088x (3.09m)

 

(Not often do I look at anything before T-1 so not too many comps available)

Santikos Tracking

 

Fall Guy (EA) - 94/1,171 (5 shows)

 - Bullet Train (EA) - .68x (845k)

 - Batman (EA) - .21x (843k)

 

Fall Guy (Thu) - 80/7,963

 - Bullet Train (Thu) - .332x (1.11m)

 - Beast - 1.95x (1.8m)

 - Massive Talent - 1.818x (1.52m)

 - Civil War - .37x (1.07m)

 - Ungentlemanly - 2.22x (1.89m)

 

 Bullet Train total is at 1.96m (without any adjustment)

 

Tarot - 27/4,161

 - Firestarter - 2.25x (844k)

 - Northman - .17x (229k)

 - Abigail - .415x (415k)

 

Phantom Menace (Fri) - 510/5,040 

 - Dragon Ball Z - .445x (2.94m)

 - Avatar 2 - .1x (3.6m)

 - Top Gun 2 - .104x (3.4m)

 - Batman - .079x (2.77m)

[MrFanaticGuy34]

I’m really excited about the box office for the latest SW:TPM re-release and how more it will add to the film’s lifetime DOM gross. 👩🏻‍💼

 

Any fan who’s excited for seeing the film first time in theaters ever or at least since it’s previous re-release?

[filmlover]

 

[Shawn Robbins]

Hi Everyone,

 

I'm back in the game.

 

I'll probably post an official announcement as a separate topic shortly, but Box Office Theory's front-end has relaunched and we're continuing forecasts there and through my new Substack. 

 

boxofficetheory.com

boxofficetheory.substack.com

 

This weekend's forecast: https://boxofficetheory.com/weekend-forecast-the-fall-guy-eyes-25-30m-summer-start-star-wars-the-phantom-menace-re-issue-could-surprise-ahead-of-tarot/

 

I'll probably be paywalling some things after a brief free/intro period where certain tracking and forecasts will be both on the website and in the Substack newsletter. After that free period (likely a week or two?), some of that information will only be available through Substack.

 

I know paywalls aren't the most popular thing, but there will be a free tier and I'm aiming to keep the paid tier reasonable. After all, I've got a family to support!

 

Any future and ongoing support you can provide is hugely appreciated, whether its through a free or paid subscription, and I can't thank you all enough for the support you've already shown in recent times and over these many years.

 

More to come.

 

Shawn

[YM!]

Shawn/BOP Memorial Day tracking:

https://boxofficetheory.com/extended-forecast-furiosa-and-the-garfield-movie-tracking-to-combine-for-100-million-through-memorial-day/

 

Garfield - 50-65m/174-270m

Furiosa - 40-TBD/100m-TBD

 

Damn, Shawn is going ape for the pussy.

[Shawn Robbins]

10 minutes ago, YM! said:

Shawn/BOP Memorial Day tracking:

https://boxofficetheory.com/extended-forecast-furiosa-and-the-garfield-movie-tracking-to-combine-for-100-million-through-memorial-day/

 

Garfield - 50-65m/174-270m

Furiosa - 40-TBD/100m-TBD

 

Damn, Shawn is going ape for the pussy.

Shawn/BOT

 

Probably should have kept the high-end off temporarily since I've been swamped with 10,000 other things lately, but, it's out there now. Might revise a bit this or next week.

[Mojoguy]

21 minutes ago, YM! said:

Shawn/BOP Memorial Day tracking:

https://boxofficetheory.com/extended-forecast-furiosa-and-the-garfield-movie-tracking-to-combine-for-100-million-through-memorial-day/

 

Garfield - 50-65m/174-270m

Furiosa - 40-TBD/100m-TBD

 

Damn, Shawn is going ape for the pussy.

BOP died. Haven't updated on a year. Pandemic really screwed that site. They used they have pages long in depth weekend articles whenever a new movie opened and it stopped. One of the biggest tragedies of covid.

Edited May 1 by Mojoguy

[AniNate]

 

 

Ok I believe the hype now