The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[JustLurking]

1 hour ago, AnthonyJPHer said:

I was wondering if The Lion King (2019) would be a good comp for this? Obviously 2022 MCU is the better comp. But out of curiosity comparing these would be interesting. The Lion King still holds the record for biggest July opening ever, and presales for Deadpool and Wolverine are off to a hot start. 
 

Does anyone have the first day presale numbers for the 2019 remake? Or was that too long ago?

Comparing a Disney remake (and from 2019 to boot: pre-covid buying patterns were different from now) to a hyped MCU film is an awful comp.

[YM!]

Southeast Wisconsin Marcus Theaters Tracking Sample - 5/20/24 - 4 Theaters used (North Shore, Menominee Falls, Brookfield Square, Majestic Cinema

 

Deadpool and Wolverine - 7/26/24 - T-66 days til previews, 16 screens (3 for North Shore Cinema and Brookfield Square, 6 for Majestic Cinema and 4 for Menominee Falls) 42 showings (14 PLF/7 3D PLF/7 3D/14 2D)

650 ticket solds (99 in North Shore, 65 in Menominee Falls, 52 in Brookfield Square, 434 in Majestic Cinema)    (95 2D/509 PLF/46 3D (44 of which are 3D PLF))

• GODDAMN! What a day. As I have said before, it has sold about 10.6x times the amount of Furiosa's T-6. It also in one theater makes up a sizeable percentage of most mid-sized Marvel's T-2 in a span of hours. I do not have any megahits to compare with but this is such a strong start. Definitely feel like we got a potential 25m previews/150m+ opener on our hands. Still don't buy 200m OW but am starting to see 30m previews/175m+ OW as a strong possibility.

 

Edited May 21 by YM!

[vafrow]

On 5/19/2024 at 6:34 AM, vafrow said:

 

Inside Out 2, T-26 Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 10

New Sales: 0

Growth: 0%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 15

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 0.7

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime 

Late Afternoon: 0/2

Early Evening: 6/7

Late Evening: 4/6

 

Sales by Format 

Dolby: 0/1

Dolby 3D: 4/6

IMAX: 0/4

VIP: 6/4

 

 Comps

0.833x KFP4 for $3.2M

Zero sales for Garfield at T-26

 

I'm surprised this hasn't been stronger. At this stage, I don't expect we'll see much activity until final week. 

 

Inside Out 2, T-24 Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 14

New Sales: 4

Growth: 40%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 15

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 0.9

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime 

Late Afternoon: 0/2

Early Evening: 7/7

Late Evening: 7/6

 

Sales by Format 

Dolby: 0/1

Dolby 3D: 5/6

IMAX: 3/4

VIP: 6/4

 

 Comps

0.933x KFP4 for $3.5M

Zero sales for Garfield at T-26

 

I thought I'd do a quick update while I had some time, as I think the DP&W posts will take up a lot of time.

[vafrow]

On 5/19/2024 at 6:46 AM, vafrow said:

 

Bad Boys Ride or Die, T-19 Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 17

New Sales: 12

Growth: 240%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 1.0

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Tickets by Showtime Slot 

Late Afternoon: 0/3

Early Evening: 11/7

Late Evening: 6/7

 

Tickets by Format

Dolby: 7/7

IMAX: 6/6

VIP: 4/4

 

T-19 Comps

0.567x KOTPOTA for $2.8M

0.680x GB:FE for $3.2M

 

Average: $3.0M

 

Switched to T minus comps, so it's changed things quite a bit.

 

Bad Boys Ride or Die, T-17 Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 21

New Sales: 4

Growth: 24%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 1.2

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Tickets by Showtime Slot 

Late Afternoon: 0/3

Early Evening: 15/7

Late Evening: 6/7

 

Tickets by Format

Dolby: 1/7

IMAX: 6/6

VIP: 14/4

 

Comps

0.700x KOTPOTA for $3.5M

0.636x GB:FE for $3.0M

 

Average: $3.2M

 

Nothing of note here. Staying steady. Will probably pick up only in the final week.

[TheFlatLannister]

Half way finish collecting data on Deadpool for Florida and:

Spoiler

It's nearly tripled Dune 2 first 24 hours of sales and data is still flowing in 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

Remember.

This is 30-40 days before other MCU biggies recently.

[Squire]

Is anyone really that surprised Deadpool 3 is gonna be huge? It’s had huge trailer numbers and has always been seen as a unique superhero property. 

[vafrow]

8 hours ago, vafrow said:

Deadpool and Wolverine, Hour 2, T-67, Western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 588

New Sales: NA

Growth: NA

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 41

Tickets per Showtime: 14.3

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 38/13

Early Evening: 407/14

Late Evening: 143/14

 

Sales by Format

Non 3D (531/21)

Regular: 1/1

Dolby: 88/5

IMAX: 350/4

VIP: 90/8

4DX: 2/3

 

3D (57/20)

Regular: 8/2

Dolby: 15/4

IMAX: 13/2

VIP: 27/6

 

Comps 

4.941x Day 2 of Dune 2 for $49.4M

2.154x Day 7 of The Marvels for $14.2M

3.178x Day 2 of FNAF for $32.7M

0.908x Estimated Hour 2 of Taylor Swift Eras Tour for $34.2M

 

Average: $32.6M

 

First off, heavy dose of salt recommended with all figures.

 

I lack other MCU day 1 sales, so I've cobbled together what I have. I took anything that got off to a hot start even with imperfect comparisons. FNAF for example went on sale only a week before. For Eras Tour, I tracked a 10 theatre sample or so, so I've taken an estimate of how that breaks down to my five theatre sample.

 

Numbers were pulled around 11:00 am.l, so two hours worth of data.

 

Also worth noting is the 3D showings. As mentioned earlier, the chain is pushing the format for the ticket premium. The exception is the IMAX showings, where I think they know people just want the 2D experience. It's lead to 60% of sales being those four IMAX showings.

 

I might try and pull another set tonight to track progress. 

 

Deadpool and Wolverine, Hour 12, T-66, Western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 1060

New Sales: 477

Growth: 80%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 41

Tickets per Showtime: 25.9

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 73/13

Early Evening: 629/14

Late Evening: 358/14

 

Sales by Format

Non 3D (937/21)

Regular: 1/1

Dolby: 215/5

IMAX: 551/4

VIP: 168/8

4DX: 2/3

 

3D (123/20)

Regular: 10/2

Dolby: 35/4

IMAX: 23/2

VIP: 55/6

 

Comps 

8.908x Day 2 of Dune 2 Previews for $89.1M

2.454x Day 2 Dune 2 Previews+ EA for $29.4M

3.833x Day 7 of The Marvels for $25.6M

5.730x Day 2 of FNAF for $59.0M

0.404x Estimated Hour 22 of Taylor Swift Eras Tour for $15.2M

 

Average: $43.7M

 

Some quick notes:

A solid jump over the course of the day. Dolby sales jumped up the most, potentially as the good IMAX screens got taken.

 

On the comps, I decided to add two Dune scenarios. Ones showing a ridiculous comp, without EA. The other is pretty reasonable. It's worth noting though that Dune was an overperformer in Canada, and pretty front loaded. I'd say it's performance there is one of the brightest signs.

 

Taylor Swift is just a tough comp in general. It quadrupled from it's first and second update, so Deadpool fell pretty hard. Also, no price adjustment for ATP was taken, and Swift had her special pricing strategy in effect (although the plf levels and lack of kids tickets of DP&W means it's probably not that far off).

[HummingLemon496]

Deadpool 3 has significantly more time to sell tickets too. 

[TheFlatLannister]

FLORIDA 

 

DEADPOOL X WOLVERINE

 

Thursday 

 

T-66

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
998	11346	198024	5.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 9:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

First 12 hours

*Don't take these seriously 

(5.606x) of Dune 2 $52.13M
(7.396x) of Planet Apes $36.98M

(5.250x) of Godzill and Kong $49.88M

 

Rollout is pretty insane as well. It has almost 200 more showings than Inside out 2. Crazy, but true. It's sold more tickets than Dune 2 did as of T-1 (Dune 2 finished with 13.6k on T-0). It has also surpassed Godzilla tickets sold as of T-0

[HummingLemon496]

3 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

DEADPOOL X WOLVERINE

 

Thursday 

 

T-66

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
998	11346	198024	5.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 9:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

First 12 hours

*Don't take these seriously 

(5.606x) of Dune 2 $52.13M
(7.396x) of Planet Apes $36.98M

(5.250x) of Godzill and Kong $49.88M

 

Rollout is pretty insane as well. It has almost 200 more showings than Inside out 2. Crazy, but true. It's sold more tickets than Dune 2 did as of T-1 (Dune 2 finished with 13.6k on T-0). It has also surpassed Godzilla tickets sold as of T-0

Comps average out to $46.33M, above NWH opening weekend let's fucking go

 

/s

[YM!]

Did a Q&D for Garfield to monitor growth and with EA, it’s currently at 72 tickets (however only 22 tickets are for Thursday). Not seeing any movement for Garfield at any of the theaters, feels like it’s dead. It should get to a total similar to IF T-6 hours before opening (so idk like Thursday at 6:00 AM) but that’s mainly because of EA.

Edited May 21 by YM!

[Inceptionzq]

Deadpool & Wolverine Denver Thursday

2406/24018 in 9 theaters

0.828x Thor L&T first 24 hours in like for like theaters

0.628x Doctor Strange MoM first 11.5 hours in like for like theaters

[TheFlatLannister]

9 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

ORLANDO

 

Deadpool x Wolverine 

 

Thursday 

 

T-66

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
208	3782	40601	9.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 12:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

First 24 hours

(1.008x) of GOTG 3 $17.64M

(1.661x) of ATSV $28.82M

(2.336x) of Marvels $15.42M

(4.408x) of Dune 2 $40.99M

Comps average: $25.71M

 

Deadpool 3 has passed GOTG3, ATSV, Dune 2 (First 24 hours) in about 3 hours

I think we can put the under $100M OW discussion to bed 

 

To the shock of no one, this is blowing up. First 24 hours update should have average comps near $35M

ORLANDO

 

Deadpool x Wolverine 

 

Thursday 

 

T-66

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
208	4673	40601	11.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 10:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

First 12 hours

(1.245x) of GOTG 3 $21.80M
 

Sold around 1k tickets in the last 8 hours. Keep in mind this is not T-X so once I switch to T-X 30+ days from now, comp will probably be well over $30M for GOTG. Thinking ~8k seats sold by T-30 for ~$37M comp with GOTG vol 3 

[Inceptionzq]

Deadpool & Wolverine Drafthouse

Thursday

Sold		Total	Showings
8467	N/A	37293	259

1.03x Thor L&T 24 hours

0.968x Doctor Strange MoM 11 hours

Friday

Sold		Total	Showings
4962	N/A	57517	399

0.884x Thor L&T 24 hours

0.945x Doctor Strange MoM 11 hours

Saturday

Sold		Total	Showings
4371	N/A	58074	403

0.912x Thor L&T 24 hours

1.01x Doctor Strange MoM 11 hours

Sunday

 

Sold		Total	Showings
1319	N/A	55953	396

0.561x Thor L&T 24 hours

1.004x Doctor Strange MoM 11 hours

 

I'll make everything look a little more pretty tomorrow when I actually set up the sheets

[YM!]

8 minutes ago, YM! said:

Did a Q&D for Garfield to monitor growth and with EA, it’s currently at 72 tickets (however only 22 tickets are for Thursday). Not seeing any movement for Garfield at any of the theaters, feels like it’s dead. It should get to a total similar to IF T-6 hours before opening (so idk like Thursday at 6:00 AM) but that’s mainly because of EA.

Furiosa looking healthy from a quick and dirty glance. They’re trying a Parking Lot Cinema Drive In at Majestic in addition to 2 of the 3 PLFs. Healthy at Majestic and North Shore with 30-ish at primetime, very soft at Menominee and Brookfield Square with PLFs around 10-15 at primetime. The PLFs are slowly inching ground but should have a solid idea Tuesday. Still thinking 4-5M previews

[Inceptionzq]

Deadpool & Wolverine Emagine Entertainment

Thursday

Sold		Total	Showings
2504		31381	204

Friday

Sold		Total	Showings
956		49856	334

Saturday

Sold		Total	Showings
480		50047	331

Sunday

 

Sold		Total	Showings
157		48657	318

[emoviefan]

30 minutes ago, YM! said:

Did a Q&D for Garfield to monitor growth and with EA, it’s currently at 72 tickets (however only 22 tickets are for Thursday). Not seeing any movement for Garfield at any of the theaters, feels like it’s dead. It should get to a total similar to IF T-6 hours before opening (so idk like Thursday at 6:00 AM) but that’s mainly because of EA.

Never understood the feeling some had that  this would be some mini Mario like breakout. Eh maybe it will blow up in Walkups.

[Flip]

first time trying this

(2 AMC theaters NY/NJ):
 

Deadpool 3 Previews first 14 hours :

 

36 showtimes/442 tix sold

 

Furiosa Previews (T-3) 

 

8 showtimes/159 tix sold

 

Inside Out 2 Previews (T-24)

8 showtimes/59 tix sold

 

Garfield previews (T-3)

 

7 showtimes/51 tix sold

 

*non-PLF

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, Inceptionzq said:

Deadpool & Wolverine Denver Thursday

2406/24018 in 9 theaters

0.828x Thor L&T first 24 hours in like for like theaters

0.628x Doctor Strange MoM first 11.5 hours in like for like theaters

Why this like of like caveat. Do we have more theaters showing Wolverine now or is it other way around(theaters that existed previously are no longer around).