The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Kon]

9 hours ago, emoviefan said:

I have been saying that for awhile.As big a movie person as I am I do not buy tickets weeks in advance.  Last time was probably EndGame. I have not bought my Furiosa ticket yet because you know it's a 3 day weekend and I have nothing major planned and I am sure tickets will not be hard to get.

The number of people buying tickets in advance should be pretty small. Surprisingly, that doesn't prevent the tracking to be pretty accurate.

[TheFlatLannister]

11 hours ago, Mojoguy said:

Because something tends to break out every summer. The last 2 years it was TGM and Barbie, both of the 1st pages their topics predicted they would flop but they became mega hits.

 

Not saying Twisters will be the next TGM, but it could suprise and double expectations or something.

I'll push back on this notion. I think the box office has reached a point where films won't break out simple because of an empty slate. People no longer feel obliged to go to the cinema during peak seasons because they are streaming. Also IO2 and Deadpool are likely the big breakouts of the summer. 

Edited May 23 by TheFlatLannister

[filmlover]

Top Gun: Maverick and Barbie also had much more going for them than a "something's gotta breakout" narrative anyway.

[kayumanggi]

 

[AniNate]

I do think Twisters also has more going for it than a "something has to break out" narrative but it ain't touching Deadpool. Just will have to hope it can still get enough of the law-abiding PG-13 audience after that comes out

[titanic2187]

Looks like Hemsworth curse continue with Furiosa no matter how good the movie is. 

[YM!]

5 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

This makes sense as it’s more or less what presales are hinting at. Really like the mom/teen girl skew for this. Feel Pixar and Disney would be happy with Monsters University numbers considering how bad post pandemic has been for them. Still hoping it can leg it to 100m.

[ZeroHour]

15 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

I'll push back on this notion. I think the box office has reached a point where films won't break out simple because of an empty slate. People no longer feel obliged to go to the cinema during peak seasons because they are streaming. Also IO2 and Deadpool are likely the big breakouts of the summer. 

It seems odd to me that DM4 hasn't been a bigger part of the discussion of potential summer breakouts. I mean I personally have no love for those movies, but there's no doubt that there's a big audience for them and it has the July 4th holiday launch pad and nothing of its size for kids for the rest of summer. It might not be the most likely, but it can't be ruled out as a possibility for biggest movie of the summer. It certainly has a better shot than Twisters.

[Mojoguy]

16 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

I'll push back on this notion. I think the box office has reached a point where films won't break out simple because of an empty slate. People no longer feel obliged to go to the cinema during peak seasons because they are streaming. Also IO2 and Deadpool are likely the big breakouts of the summer. 

When I say "breakout" I meant movies most thought would bomb when first announced, which applied to TGM + Barbie. IO2 and DP3 clearly were going to be hits from the start.

[Cmasterclay]

https://deadline.com/2024/05/tom-rothman-streaming-audiences-quentin-tarantino-1235920644/

 

I thought this was a really interesting article that touches on a more optimistic but real view of what we are facing in the industry. Obviously a studio shill to a degree (and Deadline is too) but most of it makes sense. 

[keysersoze123]

On 5/22/2024 at 8:36 AM, keysersoze123 said:

Deadpool & Wolverine MTC1 Previews - 127648/1253657 2412433.88 7642 shows

 

I could not get it to run yesterday night and so just ran it this morning. Nothing out of ordinary in day 2 pace. Let us see where things are next week. 

Deadpool & Wolverine MTC1 Previews - 133351/1261706 2515183.81 7706 shows

 

MTC2 - 49644/493626 751591.32 3593 shows

[AniNate]

19 minutes ago, ZeroHour said:

It seems odd to me that DM4 hasn't been a bigger part of the discussion of potential summer breakouts. I mean I personally have no love for those movies, but there's no doubt that there's a big audience for them and it has the July 4th holiday launch pad and nothing of its size for kids for the rest of summer. It might not be the most likely, but it can't be ruled out as a possibility for biggest movie of the summer. It certainly has a better shot than Twisters.

 

DM/Minions is a pretty stable IP, but I also think its ceiling is lower than Deadpool's. They don't attract much in the way of single adults.

[JimmyB]

29 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

https://deadline.com/2024/05/tom-rothman-streaming-audiences-quentin-tarantino-1235920644/

 

I thought this was a really interesting article that touches on a more optimistic but real view of what we are facing in the industry. Obviously a studio shill to a degree (and Deadline is too) but most of it makes sense. 

I do find it rich that the CEO of Sony Pictures is talking about movies need to be GREAT not good because good isnt good enough. Has filled theaters with a bunch of turds this year....Book of Clarence, GB, Madame Web, Tarot, Garfield.  The movies he thinks will be huge for Sony...Venom 3, Karate Kid and Spiderverse are more IP. The stuff we know is the only thing people really see in theaters.  Reading this, I dont think he has any idea how to get people back to the theater, he's just spinning PR like a good CEO. 

[ZeroHour]

12 minutes ago, AniNate said:

 

DM/Minions is a pretty stable IP, but I also think its ceiling is lower than Deadpool's. They don't attract much in the way of single adults.

Like I said, I don't think it has the best shot, but with IO2 potentially weighed down by the Disney+ factor, it has a decent chance of being the biggest animated film of the summer at the very least.

[Cmasterclay]

14 minutes ago, JimmyB said:

I do find it rich that the CEO of Sony Pictures is talking about movies need to be GREAT not good because good isnt good enough. Has filled theaters with a bunch of turds this year....Book of Clarence, GB, Madame Web, Tarot, Garfield.  The movies he thinks will be huge for Sony...Venom 3, Karate Kid and Spiderverse are more IP. The stuff we know is the only thing people really see in theaters.  Reading this, I dont think he has any idea how to get people back to the theater, he's just spinning PR like a good CEO. 

oh I certainly agree that he isn't doing the work, but I think his points are actually well-reasoned whether he is living up to them or not.

[AniNate]

Aiming to make better movies is at least admirable from a moral standpoint, if less of a guarantee financially

[kayumanggi]

1 hour ago, YM! said:

This makes sense as it’s more or less what presales are hinting at. Really like the mom/teen girl skew for this. Feel Pixar and Disney would be happy with Monsters University numbers considering how bad post pandemic has been for them. Still hoping it can leg it to 100m.

 

I think 100M is still possible, but if it does not happen, it's fine. We know this one should be about legs. DESPICABLE ME IV is the only real competition and I think the two can coexist.

[vale9001]

when The fall guy felt like the flop of the summer before summer started to then If and Mad Max going to similar opening numbers with similar or even bigger budgets...but mad max i guess should be way bigger than Fall guy OS at least. 

Edited May 23 by vale9001

[Cmasterclay]

1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:

I'll push back on this notion. I think the box office has reached a point where films won't break out simple because of an empty slate. People no longer feel obliged to go to the cinema during peak seasons because they are streaming. Also IO2 and Deadpool are likely the big breakouts of the summer. 

I definitely agree with this about the market. That said, and this doesn't apply to Twisters so much as something like Deadpool or Moana or something, each year in recent memory a film that was predicted to do varying degrees of very good (Barbie, Mario, Oppenheimer, Top Gun) broke out past anyone's reasonable expectations to become a super megahit. I agree there's definitely no surprise breakout out there, but there could be a Deadpool 550m and Moana 2 450m run when most predictions at start of the year were like 350m for Deadpool and 300m for Moana.

Edited May 23 by Cmasterclay

[YM!]

7 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I definitely agree with this about the market. That said, and this doesn't apply to Twisters so much as something like Deadpool or Moana or something, each year in recent memory a film that was predicted to do varying degrees of very good (Barbie, Mario, Oppenheimer, Top Gun) broke out past anyone's reasonable expectations to become a super megahit. I agree there's definitely no surprise breakout out there, but there could be a Deadpool 550m and Moana 2 450m run when most predictions at start of the year were like 350m for Deadpool and 300m for Moana.

I’d be more optimistic if Moana 2 wasn’t a Disney Plus mini event edited into a movie and wasn’t next to Wicked.

Edited May 23 by YM!