The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[AniNate]

19 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

 

This was dead in the water with the Cannes reception. Warner learning the lesson Disney did last year 

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

1 hour ago, AniNate said:

 

The question is why not start this far out. I've asked multiple times in this thread and haven't gotten a straight answer about how exactly early presales could be a bad thing from a studio's perspective, besides making trackers nervous if they open soft. Soft sales are still better than zero sales from where I'm sitting.

 

 

 

It's not a huge franchise that would do month-out sales like Marvel, SW, etc. Feels like there's a bit too much dead air time after the initial start.

[Mojoguy]

56 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

The Western is DEAD! Or do we just need better westerns?

[kayumanggi]

 

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Fuck. The Alamo in the Twin Cities just shut down. In addition to just any theater, especially any as good as Drafthouse, closure sucking, it also messes up my comps quite a bit because it’s such a heavy pre-sales type of theater. This sucks man 

 

Obviously know your own local market, but what I've usually done in these situations is I don't bother adjusting the comps (if they even could be adjusted as I don't know your historical data) and just see if/how much those sales are redistributed to nearby locations.

 

Drafthouse being a dine-in theater complicates matters more than a bit, as a typical patron of the Drafthouse might not necessarily then go to a non dine-in theater.  As I like to say, "play it by ear" and see just how tickets are spread about.  If they are.

 

If you can separate out the Twin Cities Drafthouse tickets from prior comps without it being a GIGANTIC PITA, might want to make two separate comps on reports and see how each play.  But, honestly? Almost certainly more trouble than it's worth (far too much work for far too little gain — especially when there is so much work already in a project).   Probably just for the best to bite the bullet and refrain from adjusting for comps and maybe re-weight on the fly via a fudge factor until your new data really starts to accumulate.

 

No real ideal solution, unfortunately.

[el sid]

The Watchers, counted today for today, had 251 sold tickets. 

Up good 47.5% since yesterday. 

 

Comps (always counted on Thursday of the release week for Thursday) The Strangers had 553 sold tickets = 0.55M. 

Knock at the Cabin had 610 = 0.6M. 

Tarot had 184 = 0.95k. 

M3gan had 782 = 0.9M. 

And Abigail had 351 sold tickets = 0.7M. 

 

Average: 750k. 

 

IMO the trailer is quite interesting and I think it could have decent walk-ups so I go with 750k+ and don't rule out 1M.

[Flip]

15 hours ago, Flip said:

Bad Boys 4 (T-1)

 

21 showtimes/507 tix sold (+173)

 

Watchers (T-1)

 

8 showtimes/103 tix sold (+15) same sold as yesterday

 

unfortunately I don’t have any comps

Bad Boys 4 (T-0)

 

21 showtimes/724 tix sold (+217)

 

Watchers (T-0)

 

8 showtimes/148 tix sold (+45)

 

Unfortunately I don’t have any comps

[kayumanggi]

 

[vafrow]

10 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Bad Boys Ride or Die, T-1 Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 222

New Sales: 69

Growth: 45%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 20

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 11.1

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Tickets by Showtime Slot 

Late Afternoon: 14/4

Early Evening: 132/8

Late Evening: 76/8

 

Tickets by Format

Dolby: 86/7

IMAX: 31/6

VIP: 104/4

4DX: 1/3

 

Comps

0.965x KOTPOTA for $4.8M

0.527x HG:BoSS for $3.0M

1.500x GB:FE for $7.1M

1.102x Equalizer 3 (estimated) for $4.2M

2.810x The Fall Guy for $6.6M

 

Average: $5.1M

 

It's gotten above 5M in comp average, and growth rate suggests walk ups could take it higher.

 

It's worth noting that there's no equivalent to the Atom deal here either.

 

If I had to put a marker down, I'd be guessing $5.5M.

 

Walk up update 

 

As of 3:00 pm, walk ups are have driven a 32% increase in sales.

 

Similar timed update for KOTPOTA saw a 72% increase. GxK saw only a 20% walk up rate.

 

It's a little lower than i was expecting. Im unsure if ill get a chance to review something closer to the evening shows. I would like to see it get a fair bit higher.

[keysersoze123]

Despicable Me 4 MTC1 OD - 6542/1037611 107009.77 5492 shows

 

1st the show count is solid. This is as of now. Start is weaker than IO2 that started T-31 or something. But this movie's PS is irrelevant until T-7 or something. Let us see how things go. its OD should be great for movie going. it will drop in Jul 4 and then we have the weekend. So big 5 day weekend is in play. 

[Rorschach]

14 hours ago, Rorschach said:

Bad Boys: Ride or Die (Wednesday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday: 88/2,565 (3.4% sold) [+27]

3 IMAX showings: 7/1,164

3 XD showings: 20/714

5 2D showings: 61/687

 

Comps:

The Fall Guy (w/o EA): $4.14 mil

Apes (w/o EA): $4.36 mil

Furiosa: $3.46 mil

Average: $3.99 mil

Bad Boys: Ride or Die (Thursday Afternoon Outlook) - T-1 hour

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday: 109/2,565 (4.2% sold) [+21]

3 IMAX showings: 9/1,164

3 XD showings: 28/714

5 2D showings: 72/687

 

Comps:

The Fall Guy (w/o EA): $3.28 mil

Apes (w/o EA): $3.87 mil

Furiosa: $3.41 mil

Average: $3.52 mil

 

Yeah... this is under-indexing pretty hard here. At least it should have some good walk-up business. 

[AnthonyJPHer]

27 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

Second biggest theater count of the year, only behind Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire’s 4,400. Jesus, why did that film have so many theaters? 

[TheFlatLannister]

17 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

Bad Boys

 

Thursday 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
709	7179	137681	5.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

1907

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

12

 

COMPS

T-1

(1.478x) of Apes $7.39M 

(2.432x) of Fall Guy $5.59M 
Comps AVG: $6.49M 

 

Actually one of the strongest late growth i've tracked in a long time. Truly amazing day. Could this reach $6.5M previews???

FLORIDA 

Bad Boys

 

Thursday 

 

T-0

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
709	10167	137681	7.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 3:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

2998

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-0

(2.885x) of Fall Guy $6.64M 

(1.308x) of Ghostbusters $6.15M 
Comps AVG: $6.40M 

 

Easily the strongest late growth i've tracked since switching to Florida. Miami is definitely overindexing because it's a 1:1 ratio with the greater orlando area and that never happens. 

 

Going with $6.5M +/- $0.5M previews. Would I be shocked with $7M?, no

Edited June 6 by TheFlatLannister

[jeffthehat]

23 hours ago, jeffthehat said:

Indiana

Bad Boys: Ride or Die T-1

Sales	Seats	Shows
1161	30976	174

TC = 27

Comps 

1.87x Fall Guy T-1 = $4.3m*

1.64x Civil War T-1 = $4.8m*

0.35x One Love Wed T-1 = $4.9m

0.50x GxK NE T-1 = $5.0m

* pulled 8-10 hrs later

 

AVG = $4.75m

---

Swapped Furiosa with One Love to better capture movies with good walkups. Would guess ~$5m tomorrow, but this could be one of those where comps ramp up at T-0

Indiana

Bad Boys: Ride or Die T-0

Sales	Seats	Shows
1699	31220	178

TC = 27

Comps 

2.67x IF T-0 = $4.8m

0.50x Dune 2 T-0 = $5.0m

1.70x Furiosa T-0 = $6.0m

---

Just posting every T-0 comp I have here. Wouldn't read into them a ton 

Edited June 6 by jeffthehat

[abracadabra1998]

14 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Bad Boys: Ride or Die (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 25 theaters	172	267	732	27331	2.68

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		470	166	64.21
MTC1:		352	90	48.09
Alamo:		37	13	5.05
Other chains:		343	164	46.86

 

Comps: 

1x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (THU): $5.04 Million

0.94x Aquaman and the Last Kingdom: $4.22 Million (17 theaters)

5.32x Expend4bles: $4 Million (17 theaters)

1.45x Blue Beetle: $4.79 Million (17 theaters)

2.02x The Equalizer 3: $7.69 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $5.15 Million

 

Tremendous update, I will be able to give a T-1 hour update tomorrow, looking forward to see what the final numbers look like. Probably the fastest rate growth in the last two days of anything I have tracked other than maybe Insidious 5

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Bad Boys: Ride or Die (T-1 Hour):

Day: T-1 hour	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	169	350	1082	26644	4.06

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		644	174	59.52
MTC1:		476	124	43.99
Alamo:		0	-37	0
Other chains:		606	263	56.01

 

Comps (Straight-up, no Drafthouse adjustment):

1.2x Fall Guy: $2.83 Million

1.96x Monkey Man: $2.74 Million

1.7x Argyle: $2.88 Million

1.23x Blue Beetle: $4.06 Million

 

Comps (Like-for-like, removing Drafthouse numbers from comps):

1.3x Fall Guy: $3.06 Million

2.12x Monkey Man: $2.96 Million

1.87x Argyle: $3.18 Million

1.28x Blue Beetle: $4.23 Million

0.87x Insidious 5: $4.35 Million (Alamo did not have showtimes for this)

 

Might play around with my posts the next few updates while I think a little more about this Alamo stuff. @Porthos you gave me some good food for thought, thanks   the really annoying thing is how different Alamo feels; very cinephile heavy, the dine-in like you mentioned, and the fact that their rules are much stricter. I am not sure if the audience there would fully transfer elsewhere. Guess I'll have to find out!

 

As for this I really don't feel comfy giving a final prediction, as these late (it happened late morning, so most people who had bought a ticket probably wouldn't even have time to buy it somewhere else). This last update feels fine, but not extraordinary as I was thinking it could happen. If I look at my numbers from yesterday I would probably guess anything between $5-6 Million, but would not be surprised with more

[abracadabra1998]

14 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

The Watchers (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 25 theaters	121	48	174	14274	1.22

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		12	1	6.9
MTC1:		98	19	56.32
Alamo:		28	10	16.09
Other chains:		48	19	27.59

 

Comps: 

0.92x Abigail: $920k

1.44x Imaginary: $1.04 Million (17 theaters)

1.17x Last Voyage of Demeter: $880k (17 theaters)

 

Average: $945k

 

Same thing here, T-1 hour update tomorrow so hopefully will give some clues at to what walk-ups look like here

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

The Watchers (T-1 Hour):

Day: T-1 hour	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	118	49	223	13797	1.62

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		23	11	10.31
MTC1:		136	38	60.99
Alamo:		0	-28	0
Other chains:		87	39	39.01

 

Comps (W/ Drafthouse):

0.77x Abigail: $770k

0.93x Last Voyage of Demeter: $700k

 

Comps (Without Drafthouse):

0.91x Abigail: $910k

1.07x Last Voyage of Demeter: $805k

0.17x Insidious 5: $875k

 

This will have a way bigger impact in these smaller releases. Based on yesterday and today I will go with a final prediction of $900k, +/-150.

[Flip]

1 hour ago, kayumanggi said:

 

If exactly 4200 (will probably higher) would be the 23rd widest release of an animated movie(No Lion King remake/ Sonic movies) ever

[Rorschach]

15 hours ago, Rorschach said:

The Watchers (Wednesday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday:

7 2D showings: 21/513 (4.1% sold) [+4]

 

Comps:

Tarot: $790k

Strangers: $869k

Average: $830k

The Watchers (Thursday Afternoon Outlook) - T0 to first showtime

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday:

7 2D showings: 26/513 (5.1% sold) [+5]

 

Comps:

Tarot: $489k

Strangers: $503k

Average: $496k

 

Edited June 6 by Rorschach

[AniNate]

Flipped through Canton showtimes and so far Twisters has sold 35 for the extended weekend

[filmlover]

The studio releasing nearly 10 minutes of The Watchers online should've been the sign that the movie was going to be a nonstarter tbh.