The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[el sid]

Bad Boys 4, counted today for today, had 1.388 sold tickets. 

Up ok 24% since yesterday (where it had 1.119 sold tickets). 

 

Comps (always counted on Thursday of the release week for Thursday) Meg 2 (3.2M from previews) had 586 sold tickets = 7.5M. 

Expendables 4 (750k) had 276 = 3.8M. 

Creed III (5.45M) had 1.081 = 7M. 

GxK (9.2M) had 2.015 = 6.35M. 

Planet of the Apes (5M) had 1.657 = 4.2M. 

And Bad Boys 3 (6.36M) had 1.952 sold tickets = 71% = 4.5M.

 

Average from the six comps: 5.5M. 

 

Not bad at all and I also think that it could have even better walk-ups than the Apes and as it was reported here already (but worse than GxK's). Still, e.g. the comparison with BB3 causes that I'm still less optimistic than most other trackers here that it could get more than 5M.

Its sales aren't far behind in NY (536 to 690 of BB3 back than) and LA (305 to 386) but it looks worse in my AMCs in the five other regions/towns: Florida (236 to 301), Michigan (35 to 110), San Francisco (169 to 278), Texas (13 to 34) and Arizona (94 to 153). 

 

Overall I say 4.5M (as always true Thursday) judging from my theaters. 

Edited June 6 by el sid

[Shawn Robbins]

2 hours ago, Eric Burnett said:

Are the DM4 numbers 3-day or 5-day?

FSS (3-day) in the chart, but the headline (100+) is 5-day

[excel1]

TWISTERS setting record yet!?

[Maggie]

 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 6/3/2024 at 5:12 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

THE WATCHERS

 

Thursday 

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
368	561	69577	0.81%

^{*numbers taken as of 5:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

COMPS

T-3

(0.514x) of Night Swim $771k 
Comps AVG: $771k 

 

Yeah, I don't think this is hitting double digits OW

FLORIDA 

 

THE WATCHERS

 

Thursday 

 

T-0

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
379	931	71846	1.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 5:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

129

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

11

 

COMPS

T-0

(0.491x) of Night Swim $736k 
Comps AVG: $736k 

 

Yeah, nothing going on tbh. Don't see double digits OW

Going with $700k previews

[Boxofficerules]

What's the budget for The Watchers? My guess is between $8-$18 million.

[YM!]

Quick and Dirty SE Wisconsin Update:

 

Inside Out 2 jumped to 72 tickets on T-7 days. It’s showing nice increases but I’m still concern with little momentum at Menomonee which is like the fifth biggest theater in the state but Menomonee tends to be pretty walkup based. Rn it’s about 6x Garfield’s T-6 without EA and already at 65% of IF’s T-6 hours. I think so long as reviews are good, feeling 10m previews could be a possibility but still thinking the previews/OW range is 7M-8.5M/75-85m. Majestic is also doing the first CINIFY screening for it in the PLF which to my understanding is 4K.

 

Bad Boys Ride or Die finished with 307 tickets at T-7 hours and with EA that’s about 464 tickets sold. It’s 135% ahead of Furiosa with EA and 56% ahead of Furiosa without. So I’m guessing $5.5M previews +/- $0.5M.

[vafrow]

21 hours ago, vafrow said:

The Watchers has sold 4 tickets for tomorrow. 

 

Abigail was at 14 for my catchment at similar point. Imaginary was at 19. Night swim was at 106, but that was when kids were still off school at Christmas.

 

 

17 tickets sold as of 6:30.

[M37]

Fwiw, this whole week I’ve been eyeballing for BB4 an approximate $6M Thur, 8.5x IM for a $50M or so OW

 

Will (probably) have thoughts on the other majors sometime tomorrow 
 

Spoiler

Just a heads up, some of you may be less than enthralled…

 

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, M37 said:

Fwiw, this whole week I’ve been eyeballing for BB4 an approximate $6M Thur, 8.5x IM for a $50M or so OW

 

Will (probably) have thoughts on the other majors sometime tomorrow 
 

  Hide contents

Just a heads up, some of you may be less than enthralled…

 

Bit low. Friday PS is ahead of last movie. I think it can go higher. Of course walkups could be weaker. We will know soon. 

[YM!]

7 minutes ago, M37 said:

Fwiw, this whole week I’ve been eyeballing for BB4 an approximate $6M Thur, 8.5x IM for a $50M or so OW

 

Will (probably) have thoughts on the other majors sometime tomorrow 
 

  Reveal hidden contents

Just a heads up, some of you may be less than enthralled…

 

I think I know which film you’re talking about as you’re in my club for that one and there’s no other major release with level of presales to be leery of.

[keysersoze123]

On 6/3/2024 at 2:23 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Deadpool & Wolverine MTC1

Previews - 158517/1269382 2961839.03 7778 shows

Friday - 68663/1477310 1328138.458227 shows

 

Another +3 days(plus few hours if that matters) of sales. I think we could be close to bottom end of the curve for this movie. Probably around 200K for previews/90k ish for friday by end of June. 

 

MTC2 Previews - 63541/510391 954269.53 3770 shows 

Deadpool & Wolverine MTC1

Previews - 162790/1273850 3036114.64 7801 shows

Friday - 70907/1478507 1368854.49 8232 shows 

 

Another +3 days of data. Still bottoming as pace was lower than previous 3 days. 

[Porthos]

15 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Quick And Dirty Bad Boys: Ride or Die Sacramento Report [T-1]

1570/24306 (6.46% sold) [+473 tickets] 170 showtimes

[EA: 207/263 (78.71% sold) — 1 showtime |  Stan: 1363 tickets — 169 showtimes)]

 

0.68890x Creed 3      [3.75m]
1.93350x  M3GAN     [5.32m]
0.69500x Nope          [4.45m]
0.49778x BA               [3.78m]
0.68890x Scream 6   [3.93m]
0.40102x  Wick 4       [3.57m]
0.53620x  Fast X       [4.02m]
0.42352x  Oppy         [4.45m]
0.47793x  GxK           [4.78m]

 

=====

 

Yeeeeeah, not as good here in SacTown as other places.  Most of the higher comps either kept pace or fell slightly.  Likely Sacramento is under-performing/don't have great comps online.  But Sacramento is probably pointing somewhere between 4.5m - 5.5m.  Probably.  Just have to see how good walkups are tomorrow as well as look to other comps.

 

As usual, no update at the mid-point, so next and final update will be approx 4:30pm PT.

 

Quick And Dirty Bad Boys: Ride or Die Sacramento Report [T-0] [FINAL] [3:55pm - 4:20pm]

2650/23922 (11.08% sold) [+1080 tickets] 164 showtimes

NOTE:  All showtimes that started before 3:55pm were sampled at the start of that screening

[EA: 207/263 (78.71% sold) — 1 showtime |  Stan: 2443 tickets — 163 showtimes)]

 

0.75888x Creed 3 at T-0     [4.14m]
1.49802x  M3GAN at T-0      [4.12m]
0.69335x Nope at T-0          [4.44m]
0.58968x BA at T-0               [4.48m]
0.84556x Scream 6 at T-0    [4.82m]
0.48642x Wick 4 at T-0        [4.33m]
0.64289x Fast X at T-0         [4.82m]
0.57347x  Oppy at T-0          [6.02m]
0.51910x   GxK at T-0            [5.19m]
1.52914x   Furiosa at T-0      [5.35m]
1.75497x   Fall Guy at T-0    [5.53m]

 

====

 

Decent-to-good walkups here, but not much of a sign of 6m in play.  FWIW, Creed 3was sampled much later in the night and M3GAN a teeny bit later.  Still, things like Wick 4 are sticking out like a sort thumb.  Newest comps do point to 5m+ at least.   R-rating will pump things up a bit, but I don't feel like over thinking this.  Let's look for 5.5m +/- .3m and call it a night.  Don't like that the only R-rating comp that points to 6m was one that had a severe screen crunch, not to mention massive PLF boost, but, eh.  Maybe Sacramento is just under-performing.  That said, 5m (or under) wouldn't surprise me much with some of the listed comps I have.

[M37]

41 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Bit low. Friday PS is ahead of last movie. I think it can go higher. Of course walkups could be weaker. We will know soon. 

Creed III was a 10.5x in March, Equalizer under 10x with a holiday Sunday (-5%), and Transformers ROTB was sub 8x on this weekend last year, even estimating out EA shows. So maybe 9x, but difficult for me to project anything higher.  

 

Which doesn’t mean it can’t happen, just maybe pump the brakes a bit on the mid-$50 to $60M plus numbers. I’ve got 3.0-3.1x TFri (plus previews), so that Fri/Thu ratio is the biggest pivot point for the overall weekend total IMO

[M37]

43 minutes ago, YM! said:

I think I know which film you’re talking about as you’re in my club for that one and there’s no other major release with level of presales to be leery of.

I honestly couldn’t you tell what clubs I’m in atm. So you’re probably right, but I was speaking of at least 2 movies specifically that I’d be betting the wisdom of the crowd under 

[keysersoze123]

FYI by 5PM PST BB4 crossed 92K at MTC1. Solid walkups today so far. I am expecting 110K+ finish if west coast gets on board as well. MTC ratios have gone higher compared to pre COVID(I think there have been more closures at MTC3) plus I was not tracking completely back then. So it has to finish lower than last movie. I am thinking 6m with early shows as a round number 🙂

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

Fwiw, this whole week I’ve been eyeballing for BB4 an approximate $6M Thur, 8.5x IM for a $50M or so OW

 

Will (probably) have thoughts on the other majors sometime tomorrow 
 

  Reveal hidden contents

Just a heads up, some of you may be less than enthralled…

 

 

13 minutes ago, M37 said:

I honestly couldn’t you tell what clubs I’m in atm. So you’re probably right, but I was speaking of at least 2 movies specifically that I’d be betting the wisdom of the crowd under 

 

 

Spoiler

Does this really fit since you are an Agent?

 

No.

 

Do I care?

 

Also no. 😛 

 

(figured it was the appropriate Welcome Back gif, regardless. 👍

 

[Insomnia]

I'm taking under $50 million. Anecdotal yes, but my theatre is practically empty for this. We're talking a prime 7:10 show.

[Cmasterclay]

Lots and lots of copium in this thread - the data from most regional trackers backs up the Deadline and studio projections of under 50m, though I think it can get close to that number. And M37 doesn't miss. It's obviously not going under 40m like Sony predicted, though.

Edited June 7 by Cmasterclay

[dallas]

I don't think Bad Boys will have any issue crossing 50M. This is a backloaded franchise, we've seen how much projections have risen in just the past 24 hours. I think much of the apprehension here comes from the fact that a lot of movies have underperformed recently. Which, although a fair concern, is not one that I express in regards to a film part of a franchise as strong as Bad Boys, especially once you consider that the few successful films this year are, in fact, franchise films.